Winter Comes Early To The Arctic – Ice Area Increasing Rapidly

All year we have been hearing from the criminals in the climate mafia that the Arctic is record hot and sea ice is at a record low. In fact, it has been very cold in the Arctic, summer was short, and there is lots of new ice forming several weeks earlier than normal. Sea ice area is up more than 40% from five years ago.

ssmi1_ice_area.png (3333Ă—2500)

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44 Responses to Winter Comes Early To The Arctic – Ice Area Increasing Rapidly

  1. TimA says:

    This is bad! …..This is very bad!! Well, there’s always next year for our climate cultis….I mean scientists…..I mean cultists!!…..LOL

    • Anon says:

      It is even sadder in a way that we are looking at the Arctic.

      Think about it, the raw satellite data set, the raw ocean buoy and ship data and the raw land surface temperature data show little to no warming and no correlation to CO2 ( without “adjusting” them in some way to reach the desired degree of correlation).

      Inexplicably, our best scientific instruments don’t show a warming signal, yet somehow, the arctic, antarctic, hurricanes, invasive species, trees, etc, etc, etc are all responding to this warming?

      Why buy a thermometer then? Of what use are they, when the moss growing on the backside of your barn is a better indicator?

      Anyone interested in a dowsing rod I have for sale?

      • marque2 says:

        There is some “response” to CO2 on the planet in regards to plant growth. More CO2 in the air makes plants more efficient with water and allows them to grow faster, which means desert areas, at least around the edges are greening up. Many of the cold regions are also desert areas, because they get low rainfall, they are greening as well.

        I wouldn’t be surprised if new forests and new fields play a bit with ground thermometers, since the vegetation tends to hold in more heat at night – hence the slightly warmer nighttime temperatures which we have been experiencing over the last 30 years or so.

    • lance says:

      It will give them a whole year to practice their wailing and gnashing of teeth….

  2. frederik wisse says:

    Wow , its gonna be a hard surprise this winter , 7 to 14 days ahead of schedule in the northern hemisphere .

    • Stewart Pid says:

      Folks, by now you will have noticed the little prick Griff shows up and does a drive by post or two to wind us up and never (or rarely) sticks around to talk about his nitwit comment. At WUWT a poster commented that we need to stop feeding the troll & I think that applies here as well.
      Griff made his incorrect melting forecast and doesn’t have the spine to admit his failure. As rapscallion sez below – the ice isn’t melting … Griff made his bet and was very incorrect … Griff you are a LOSER this melt season. Man up and admit how wrong you were – not bloody likely for the twit to man up as he has yet to grow a pair.

  3. Griff says:

    That uptick is an artifact of the way extent is measured on that chart…

    The area from ESS to the pole counts as low concentration but full extent in NSIDC, therefore an early refreeze of the “slush” will not result in an extent uptick. But on the quoted chart there are a lot of “open water” pixels mixed with the slush, should that region refreeze there will be a marked increase in AMSR2 extent.

    what’s happening is that there is a very large area with just enough ice to count as extent and that is closing up in the central arctic.

    The conclusions drawn are not supported by this representation.

    • gator69 says:

      Ms Griff, the entire chart is an arifact. How stupid are you, and why do you hate poor brown people?

    • tonyheller says:

      The graph is ice area, not extent. There is lots of new ice forming and concentration is increasing.

    • AndyG55 says:

      MORE ignorant lies from griff.

      The poor little cowardly bed-wetter is really getting DESPERATE !!!

      All it has left is DECEIT and DENIAL

      Tell us, griff, do you STILL DENY the real science that shows the current level of sea ice is above what it has been for 90-95% of the last 10,000 years ??

    • rapscallion says:

      Yeah, have it your own way Griff, but it’s not exactly melting is it? It is refreezing two weeks early, and we haven’t even reached the equinox yet. No doubt you will continue to bandy about words like extent, thickness and density, but the real bummer is that nature isn’t playing your game.

    • Latitude says:

      “That uptick is an artifact of the way extent is measured on that chart…”

      So you’re saying they are measuring it the same way they always have…
      …and you can compare their old charts to the new ones

      And this chart shows more ice than they measured before

      BTW…it’s area not extent

    • arn says:

      Griff-
      we all know that neither you,nor your children,nor your children children will ever see a thing that is somehow close to the apocalyptic predictions related to co2.
      There will be lots of ice in the arctic and antarctic,the sea level will rise as it did in the past 100++ years.
      London will have the same miserable rainy weather and scotland will remain a cold beautyfull misty mess.

      There maybe apocalyptic scenarios.
      Maybe earth will be hit by a comet.
      Or humanity has to fight against banksters,progressives,global corporations,antifa and religion of peace for keeping civilisation alive
      and maybe even greenland may melt down like it did a few hundreds years ago to become GREEN again(guess where the name GREEN comes from and how small ice extent at the north pole is supposed to be when the region around Greenland is so warm to make Greenland GREEN?)
      but nothing related to co2.

      BTW-there is an easy way to find out how much ice is really melting.
      Watch out how many islands and buildings on sea drowned.
      You don’t need scientists nor statistics -just eyes and an iq of a 3 year old.
      As matter use to increase in volume when getting warmer((even the ‘anomal’ water)) oceans should have been rising dramatically due to getting warmer.

      Strange somehow that little has changed ,except-burning billions and billons of dollars which could have been used for much better things.

    • Andy says:

      The Axis do push it up a lot, that is why Tony picked it, but there is an uptick.

      I would be surprised if the mimimum extent has not been reached already.

      Is it a big thing? No because the extent is still so low even with poor conditions for melt up there like last year. So we just have to watch another year to see what happens. Cool !

      Andy

      • Andy says:

        Apart from Tony posting a fact on here the rest is complete chaff or rubbish.

        If you want to put a counter argument on a science blog then that’s fine, if you want to act the 8 year old in the playground then that’s not adding anything.

        Andy

      • AndyG55 says:

        “No because the extent is still so low ”

        WRONG. The extent NOT LOW,

        It is above what it has been for some 90-95% of the last 10,000 years

        Yes it is below the extreme highs of the LIA and the late 1970’s

        But that is a good thing.

        We have seen your feeble efforts at science, in your attempting to discount this graph from a science paper even though the graph has not been altered in any way that effects the data displayed

        Much less sea ice during the first 7000 or so years of the Holocene.

        Then a climb up to a huge peak around the time of the LIA (labelled so less informed people can see approximately when it was)

  4. Anonymous Commentator says:

    With this latest uptick how long will it be until the entire planet is covered with ice?

    /s

    • Clay Marley says:

      Indeed! I am eagerly awaiting Heller’s next linear extrapolation to find out when the entire planet is completely covered in Arctic ice. Even the Antarctic. ;)

  5. Texas Sharp-shooter says:

    Besides, (some) models predicted this very uptick, so there! Griff and I are having our Valu-Rite wake up with rotten ice in memory of all the polar bears that have disappeared down the memory hole since they stubbornly to refuse to become extinct.

  6. John Niclasen says:

    Comparison of sea ice algorithms:

    http://arctic-roos.org/observations/comparison-of-algorithms

    Notice how the dark green “NASA Team” curve in “Yearly area 1979 – 2008” is not only the lowest, but it also dive the most. (Is that the prefered algorithm? If yes, why? Is it better than other algorithms?)

    And then there is the bright green “NASA Team2” from 1992. I haven’t had time to dig deeper, but looks interesting.

    • John Niclasen says:

      The following graph is a comparison of the curves in the upper left graph in the post above – the one with the title “Yearly area 1979 – 2008”. I have moved the curves to start at the same point to compare the trends of the different algorithms.

      “NASA Team” is especially different from all the others in, that it shows the highest downward trend. The difference from the others is visible after around 1988.

  7. wilbert says:

    Main while in Canada schools are getting ready to EDUCATE?? https://climatekids.ca/ Poor kids they do not stand a chance.

  8. Frank K. says:

    Here’s the ice extent (15%) from the link below. Definitely looks like the melting is over for this year.

    http://web.nersc.no/WebData/arctic-roos.org/observation/ssmi1_ice_ext.png

    More info about ice area versus ice extent:

    About Ice Extent and Ice Concentration

    Ice extent is the cumulative area of all polar grid cells of the Northern Hemisphere that have at least 15% sea ice concentration, using the NORSEX algorithm. Ice area is the sum of the grid cell areas multiplied by the ice concentration for all cells with ice concentrations of at least 15%. Ice extent and ice area are calculated for a grid resolution of 25 km. The difference between extent and area for our data is always positive. This difference represents the area of the open water in the pixels partly covered by ice (i.e. ice concentration less than 100%). In other words, ice area takes into account that there is a fraction of open water in pixels with ice concentration above 15% and below 100%”. Ice extent does not include this effect and gives therefore a higher number of square kms than ice area does.

    • Kinker says:

      i read somewhere the satellites can detect thin ice, thin enough for a non icebreaker boat to go thru, but it could in reality be much much thicker, is this true? how accurately can the sats detect the thickness of the ice?

      • Rud Istvan says:

        By radio altimetry ice surface height above sea level. The thicker the ice, the higher the surface above water (about 90% of sea ice is below the surface). It is only an approximation due to pressure ridges and stuff, but it is all we have.

  9. Adamant de-Nye-er says:

    I guess all that extra moisture that caused Harvey to flood Texas will add an especially thick layer of snow on top of the ice cap. Not sure how the narrative will deal with global warming causing more sea ice.

  10. richard verney says:

    It will be very interesting to look at this plot in about 2 weeks time.

    It does appear that the re-freeze maybe a little earlier than usual, but like with most things, time will tell.

    • neal s says:

      Time has told again and again the lies of the CAGW cult believing in sea ice being gone by end of summer, but the ears of the alarmist true believers are stopped up, and there are none so blind as those who refuse to see.

    • Andy says:

      Good post

      Andy

      • Andy says:

        Good post for Richard and his sensible outlook, not Neil with his itch to try and show a slightly late or early melt means something in regards to politics. For fecks sake. Go bash it out on breibart or cnn and leave this science blog talking about science.

        The melt is slightly earlier or later and we get

        “cult” being mentioned.

        How about weather in the last 2 weeks rather than cult. I know, radical.

        Andy

        • neal s says:

          Please tell me just how many times previous predictions of sea ice being all gone (less than 1 wadhams) by end of summer have come true?

        • marque2 says:

          Any time a swallow shows up an hour early due to a good tail wind, in its annual migration we hear global warming. Every time there is a storm that did any damage, we hear it is global warming (like tornadoes, and hurricanes and squall lines didn’t exist before 1970)

          Yet any time someone points to a cooling trend, even for years and years – we are told – no-no-no, that is just weather, not climate.

          Tired of the double standard.

        • Colorado Wellington says:

          Andy, you are a duck.

  11. AZ1971 says:

    I’m looking forward to some cooler weather. Living in Phoenix, it would be a nice reprieve to have an early autumn and late spring just to save on the expense of the A/C bill. Plus it also allows for more outdoor activities that don’t involve a pool.

  12. Brian D says:

    New ice is already forming as shown by this Russian map.
    http://www.aari.ru/resources/d0015/arctic/gif.en/2017/20170905.gif

  13. PetterT says:

    Tony; what is now your projection for an ice free Arctic ? :-)

  14. Andy says:

    “All year we have been hearing from the criminals in the climate mafia that the Arctic is record hot and sea ice is at a record low. In fact, it has been very cold in the Arctic, summer was short, and there is lots of new ice forming several weeks earlier than normal. Sea ice area is up more than 40% from five years ago.”

    Not sure about criminals and mafia accusations, better to just stick to the science I think.

    Your second part of the paragraph was accurate, it has been a dull summer up there, like last year but more dull still. Summer extent will be higher then. It will be interesting to see how it grows into the autumn ( it is not winter yet :) ) will it give it a springboard to put on area quickly and will that mean a higher maximum?

    Maybe on the first, not likely on the second I think. It might tweak multiyear ice upwards from 2018 though so have an effect ? Worth watching.

    Also worth watching is the Antarctic… Summer seems to have come early this year Tony ;) Funny how the Arctic seems to be getting more ice in the last two summers and Arctic less, that old ying yang thing. Can’t be connected but amusing however…

    “Sea ice area is up more than 40% from five years ago”

    Looking at Jaxa data set, which has been the most reliable for that few years compared to DMI and Cryosphere and NSIDC, the values are

    2012 3414050
    2017 4640111

    it is up 36%, not 40% however as you know 2012 was a very unusual year weather wise as was 2007 and I don’t think, although very low results for people to shout about AGW, they should be ignored.

    If you compare it to 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014

    2010 6% more than 2017 currently
    2011 5% less than 2017
    2012 36% less ice than 2017 = weather time, ignore. Too low.
    2013 7% more than 2017
    2014 9% more than 2017

    https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

    This is why you can spot 2012 is an unusual year weather wise up there. Hence the 36%.

    We can do the same for 2007

    2005 16% more than 2017 on this day
    2006 6% more than 2017
    2007 6% less ice than 2017 = weather time, ignore. Too low.
    2008 0.5% more than 2017
    2009 9% more than 2017

    Note that 2007 had a late minima though so assuming 2017 is at lowest that is actually 14% lower than the minima we should expect for 2017 given no amazing events. We will have an increased minima this year.

    So 2012 and 2007 should not be taken as measurements for previous years as a yardstick, they were all weather. I have said for years ignore them, yes ignore 2 really low years !

    Jaxa have really pepped up there graphs this year, must have a new person doing stuff on there, nice work :thumbs up:

    Should be your #1 place to get data. Not even US climate fraudulent scientists which is a feather in their cap.

    Andy

    PS cannot be arsed checking that for typo’s, both me and my keyboard have repetitive strain injury for so many key presses :)

    • AndyG55 says:

      Small-minded Andy…

      Why are you continuing to DENY that sea ice levels are currently way above the extent of most of the last 10,000 years

      Are you a SCIENCE DENIER?

      Yet another ignorant PUTZ that refuses to recognise Earth climate change history

      REFUSE to recognise that the planet is still only just above the COLDEST period in 10,000 years?

      Why do you continue to broadcast YOUR ignorance, for all to see?

  15. Rhys Jaggar says:

    Let us see where we are in another two weeks. Narrowly, the data cannot be argued with, but its significance will depend on whether ice grows, remains static or declines again up to the equinox.

    An early refreeze is just that. It is not proof of a hard winter, huge maximum ice extent come March.

    • tonyheller says:

      What happens in the next two weeks is meaningless. there will be very little change one way or another.

    • AndyG55 says:

      TOTALLY IMMATERIAL if ice grows or doesn’t.

      Anything that happens is INSIGNIFICANT.

      It is STILL waaaaay above the extent of most of the last 10,000 years !!

      Do some learnin’, dull-brain !!

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