Science Says : More Junk Science From NOAA And Seth Borenstein

Claiming to speak for science, Seth “Arctic will be ice-free by 2012” Borenstein says  the first fall freeze is coming later in the US since the 1980’s.

Science Says: Jack Frost nipping at your nose ever later

I tested this out, and “confirmed” the findings in the study. There was no trend in the date of the first autumn freeze prior to the 1980’s, and a hockey stick since then.

This didn’t make any sense to me, because average October minimum temperatures haven’t changed, and because autumn snow cover has increased greatly – indicating that Arctic air is spilling further south than it used to in October.

Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab

Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab

So I looked at what was going on with the data. The hockey stick upwards coincides with NOAA’s massive loss of station data since the 1980’s, which makes a downwards hockey stick.

More than 40% of the USHCN monthly data is now fake.

If 40% of stations are failing to report in October, that pushes the date of the first freeze out by more than 12 days (40% of 31 days.) Average monthly temperatures aren’t affected much by intermittent data loss, but metrics like this one are heavily affected.

It is very likely that a large portion of the upwards trend since 1980 is simply due to data loss.  If there is no data for a particular station in October, then the first freeze will be pushed out at least 30 days at that station. As more daily data is lost, the average date gets pushed out further and further, causing a hockey stick. The trend is completely fake junk science, which are NOAA and Borenstein trademarks.

Additionally, the diurnal temperature variation is decreasing in the US due to Urban Heat Island issues.

Summers are getting shorter. The last 90 degree day comes earlier than it did a century ago. (Data loss would have the opposite effect, and cause it come later.)

This junk science is nothing new for Seth, who loves his fake post-1980 hockey sticks.

And his fake Arctic forecasts.

Star-News – Google News Archive Search

The Argus-Press – Google News Archive Search

There is no indication that fall freezes are coming later. We have already had two snowstorms in Boulder this month, with a third expected tomorrow.

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13 Responses to Science Says : More Junk Science From NOAA And Seth Borenstein

  1. EdB says:

    Got it.. garbage in, garbage out. Thanks for the good detective work TH.

  2. AndyG55 says:

    “says the first fall freeze is coming later in the US since the 1980’s.”

    And even if it were true..

    HOW IS THAT A BAD THING ?????

    • Garyh845 says:

      I’m guessing that the first freeze was coming later from 1900 to the mid-1930’s. Then, was coming earlier from then to 1979, and then later once again from 1980 forward.

      3 trends – 3 cycles.

    • Colorado Wellington says:

      How? Social darwinists love themselves some hard freeze. They’ll stay warm but it will kill off the undesirables.

    • Andy DC says:

      Every idiot knows that a shorter growing season is wonderful for crops, just like it was during the Little Ice Age, when mass starvation in Europe took place!

  3. Dan Zielinski says:

    Sure am glad that you’re feeling better, Mr. H.

  4. Freddy Boom-Boom says:

    It seems I’m not reading this very well. The graph that shows the drop in valid days reporting shows 1 day less being reported? I’m not understanding the extrapolation of 40% from that, or how even that number (if valid) would push the incidence of first frost back 12 days (I get that 40% of 32 is 12, but where is the 40% coming from?) Or why if there’s no data for a particular station reporting in October (and reporting only one day less?), that would push the reports of first frosts back 30 days (unless the heavy majority of the non reporting stations were further north and/or in areas that usually experience earlier frosts). Do you have time to expand on this please? I am curious, but just not following.

    • tonyheller says:

      Look again. I redid the calculation to include months with no data. Previously it only counted months with at least one day.

  5. ButNowInGeorgia says:

    Two snows in Boulder already? I lived there in the warm 90s and it seemed the first snowfall was always on Halloween when I took my kids out begging. They had to bundle up over their costumes and I had to stand in the snow.

  6. TA says:

    The first freeze date around my area is November 1.

    This year we had our first freeze on October 27.

  7. Andy DC says:

    Just the usual nonsense with the 1979 cherry pick. Where would alarmists be without it?

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