Met Office Forecasts

More barbecue science at the Met Office.

Barbecue summer? The Met Office issues a revised summer forecast – Telegraph

By some remarkable coincidence, the UK Met Office decided to come out with a wildly fraudulent climate assessment the same week as the US government came out with their wildly fraudulent climate assessment.

  1. Summer temperatures could be up to 5.4 °C hotter by 2070, while winters could be up to 4.2 °C warmer
  2. The chance of a summer as hot as 2018 is around 50 % by 2050
  3. Sea levels in London could rise by up to 1.15 metres by 2100
  4. Average summer rainfall could decrease by up to 47 % by 2070, while there could be up to 35 % more precipitation in winter

Most detailed picture yet of UK’s future climate – Met Office

The graphs below show the number of days above 70 degrees at all UK GHCN stations. There is no indication that UK summers are getting hotter.

There is also no indication that UK summers are getting drier.

As far as sea level goes, this is what the Sussex Coast looked like 1800 years ago.

This is the same location on the coast now.

Below are the sea level graphs for all NOAA UK tide gauges.  There is no indication that sea level rise rates have accelerated, or that the UK is in any danger from sea level rise.

Sea Level Trends – NOAA Tides & Currents

There is zero data to back up any of the UK Climate Assessment claims.  Just like the US Climate Assessment it is completely fraudulent, and created for political purposes rather than scientific ones. The UK Met Office has a long history of completely useless long-term forecasting.

‘Barbecue summer’ is over, the Met Office predicts – Telegraph

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74 Responses to Met Office Forecasts

  1. Martin Lawrence says:

    It’s an odd thing – I keep reading everywhere that 2018 was the hottest summer ever in the UK – but I didn’t use the portable air conditioning unit that I have at my workshop once this year.

    I’ve been at my present workshop since 2009 and have used air conditioning on a few of the previous summers but this year I just didn’t feel the need.

    • Mr GrimNasty says:

      There are many ways of defining hottest, by any sensible consideration it clearly wasn’t record breaking. The alarmists, MSM, Met Office etc. have become expert at concocting record claiming headlines by careful selection of criteria. In the CET, July was by far the hottest of the summer months relative to average, being the 3rd warmest.

      https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

      I believe from memory 2018 had 1 day over 30C in the CET whereas 1976 had 9 (there were a lot more in 1976 anyway).

    • GCsquared says:

      Odd indeed. I’ve experienced something similar in the SF East Bay area. Back in 2007, we bought a portable room air conditioner for those occasions when temperatures did NOT drop below 80 at night for several days at a time. (Having the house stay warm at night for a week or so seemed unusual compared to prior years, maybe…)

      We used the AC for a few summers after that, but haven’t needed it since. All last summer I waited for the claimed heat to materialize to justify the trouble of hauling the AC from the closet, but it sat in the dark all last summer as well.

      Use of the AC has become our personal climate warming detector, and it’s been indicating cooling, if anything.

  2. John Ellwood says:

    Public service organisations in the U.K….the BBC, Met Office, Civil Service etc. have been corrupted by school and universities which have resulted in a virtue signalling groupthink.

    • arn says:

      George Lucasz from the Frankfurt School promised to bring “feelings” into universities
      because Karl Marx(who predicted everything wrong/sounds familiar,doesn’t it) was not wrong but right(sounds so AGW) people must be reeducated to fit Marx’ narrative.

      The Frankfurt School started their infiltration,subversion and perversion of Universities in the USA at the Columbia University/New York((the same city where Trotzky started from to begin the russian revolution which was sponsored by Wall Street)) –
      not by coincidence.But parallel to,as later exposed by Bela Dodd,1100 communist to infiltrate the catholic church and destroy it from within.
      While the(mostly student) hippie movement exploded in 1967 to change society the vatican 2 council did the same in the same year for the church.

  3. Mr GrimNasty says:

    Never mind the BBQ fiasco, last summer’s forecast was even funnier.

    “However, our outlook certainly doesn’t imply a 3-month heatwave.”

    https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2018/06/11/will-summer-be-a-washout-or-a-scorcher-2/

    • Louis Hooffstetter says:

      Jesus, what a worthless forecast. It covers everything and forecasts nothing.
      But whatever the weather turns out to be, they can take credit for predicting it.

  4. steve case says:

    3. Sea levels in London could rise by up to 1.15 metres by 2100

    1.15 meters of sea level rise by 2100 comes to 14 mm/year – starting right now and every year for the next 82 years.

    When is this going to begin to happen?

    • JCalvertN(UK) says:

      I know it is not quite the same thing, but the tidal *range* at London has been increasing by 1m per century for several centuries. It is now about 8m. This is due to development along the banks and also, possibly, dredging.

    • Squidly says:

      But Steve:

      1. Summer temperatures could be up to 5.4 °C hotter by 2070, while winters could be up to 4.2 °C warmer

      That would be an increase of 1°C per decade. As you say, “when is this going to begin to happen?” .. they had better get going in it ASAP. Time is a wastin’ and the clock is running out on them fast!

      Their forecasts have to be satire .. there really is not other explanation.

      • Gerald Machnee says:

        **1. Summer temperatures could be up to 5.4 °C hotter by 2070, while winters could be up to 4.2 °C warmer**
        So they would claim to be correct even if it is 0.1 deg higher. But I would suggest any minus would make them wrong.

    • AndyDC says:

      Little green men from Neptune COULD conquer London by 2100. That no doubt has a higher likelihood of happening than a 1.15 meter sea level rise. Now if I could only get a few billion dollars in funding to “prove” my hypothesis as the climate fraudsters have managed to do!

  5. Gamecock says:

    ‘Most detailed picture yet of UK’s future climate’

    Not only can they see the future, they see it in fine detail.

    The report is juvenile.

    ‘Summer temperatures could be up to 5.4 °C hotter by 2070, while winters could be up to 4.2 °C warmer’

    They use decimal points to show they have a sense of humour.

  6. richard says:

    “Sea levels in London could rise by up to 1.15 metres by 2100”

    Gawd- As i have stated before the amount of times the Thames barrier has been closing has decreased since 2001.

    Sorry for the recent repeat , just helps get the stupidity of their comments out of my system.

  7. griff says:

    Lerwick, Stornoway and wick are not the warmest parts of the UK… they are extremes.

    Picking those cherries again!

    • Rah says:

      No one here is higher in the cherry tree than you are Griff

    • tonyheller says:

      Had you actually read the blog post, you would known that I graphed every single NOAA GHCN station and tide gauge in the UK.

    • arn says:

      Griff-when someone is throwing the whole cherry basket at you
      please don’t call it cherry picking.

      • Disillusioned says:

        lol

        • Anon says:

          Or just live nearby one of the Tide Gauges Tony selected and you will avoid all of the incoming water. (lol)

          • Colorado Wellington says:

            True.

            The most dangerous place to be is not at the coasts but in the middle of the ocean. We were told recently by a satellite remote sensing expert that sea level rise is concentrated right there and that’s why coastal gauges don’t show it.

            To make it worse, people living in the middle of the ocean don’t get any warning how quickly the waters are rising because there are no tide gauges there. And they can’t run away like people in coastal cities. Their only chance is to surf down the water bulge to safer places near the coasts.

          • Gator says:

            It’s caused by Trenberth’s missing heat, which hides at the bottom of the oceans, pushing upward. It’s basic physics.

          • Colorado Wellington says:

            Yes, the rise of the water bulges in the middle of the oceans is broadly consistent with the global warming theory. So we have yet another proof of CO2 lethality. Why do so many deny science?

          • Rah says:

            Now wait just a galdarn minute. It’s far more complex. We were told the ocean bottom was sinking. Then we were told that the ocean bottom is being eaten away and the Earth is swallowing up the water in the Subduction zones. So there is a lot more going on than simple convection.

    • GW says:

      I looked up “Useful Idiot” in the dictionary and found your name ! LOL

    • Phil. says:

      Only one of them is on the mainland and that one is at the northernmost tip, the other two are on off-shore islands, one out in the north atlantic near the north of scotland and the other well north of scotland almost as close to norway. That they constitute a third of the selection of the UK sites shows that it is a rather biased selection. Valley is also on an island off the atlantic coast.

      • Charles Nelson says:

        Of course being further north is somewhat cancelled out by the influence of the Gulf Stream.

      • spike55 says:

        No contrary data, Phlop ??

        Just more of your zero-content blather ?

      • Anon says:

        What I tell people who are worried about CSLR is that the best strategy is just to live near one of the world’s longterm high quality tide gauges to avoid the inundation.

        If you read the IPCC fine print, you might have spotted these locations, otherwise you are out of luck:

        There are no full-length graphs of representative high-quality tide gauges. Fig. 13-17 has graphs going backonly to 1970, despite the fact that the best tide gauges go back over 150 years, and despite the fact that the literature indicates that at least 60 years of tide gauge data are needed to determine a robust SLR trend (see h**p://tinyurl.com/slr60yrs for literature references). FAQ13.1 Figure 1a (p.89) has a few such graphs, but
        shrunk to the size of postage stamps, and only back to 1950. Good quality graphs of full-length tide gauge records from high-quality tide stations are absolutely essential for “grounding” the reader’s understanding of sea level, in particular the (lack of) response (thus far) in rate of SLR to GHG forcings, and the amounts and timescales of typical fluctuation in relative sea level, and the variation in relative sea level trends between
        locations. The omission of such graphs appears calculated to hide the fact that, thus far, sea level rise has not increased in response to GHG forcings, and will surely be powerful ammunition for critics of the IPCC and its Reports. Here’s a good example of such a graph, from one of the longest, best-quality tide stations in the world: h**p://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_global_station.shtml?stnid=120-012

        http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/drafts/Ch13_WG1AR5SOD_RevCommResponses_Final.pdf

        *What is so cool about this data set, is that God must have somehow “cherry picked” these stations to let his people know where it will be safe to be, much as he helped Noah and his family.

      • Terry says:

        Phil you will have to head back to the Office of Climate Astrology and get some new arguments. yours are wearing pretty thin.

    • Mr GrimNasty says:

      Is Griff a real person or some sort of troll collective? Although always ‘warmist’, the change in the character of the posts of late is quite bizarre.

      • arn says:

        Griff is a real person named Ed from England which does not exist as Arctic Ice below 1 million square miles is inexistent according to Griff(and England isn’t even 15% of that size).

        Griff(just as Phil) is not a standard leftist white moron as they do not use Salinsky tactics,name calling etc,which implies that they belong to the dying small minority of the left that still has some cultural values left(either religious or
        social(=families etc)instead of smoking pott and shouting marxistic paroles

        They only use the defensive half of political correct indoctriation(islam butkissing,AGW worship,etc but no standard “bigot,racist,nazi”,all white men evil,israel is satan,victimhood)
        at best they would use the term conspiracy theorist but they don’t dare as even the worst AGW conspiracy theories are by a landmile more accurate than the AGW predictions of experts.

        The reason for Griffs change in recent month is a certain illness=Griphilys.
        Griphilys is result of permanent cognitive dissonance by ignoring context,cause&effect,real world proving official truth wrong,trying to do good and always get negative results and trusting expert who are only good in one thing=being wrong (undefeated since 1988)
        and being 100% aware that using 3minutes google&common sense would destroy their world view.
        But as they have taken the hypocritical oath they must follow the way of ignorance=seeing but not observing,
        knowing but not understanding.

        They are so out of touch with reality that even the communist chinese have a special deregatory term
        for those stupid poor white=Baizuo.

        • Mr GrimNasty says:

          I’m tempted to say thanks for the clarification…….

        • Anon says:

          That does about sum it up. The best thing about them is that what they do requires no critical thinking, just reposting BBC or WaPo headlines and only occasionally making massive errors like discounting the association between raptor deaths and wind farms, or claiming they will be gone until September, then will return to prove Tony wrong about the melting Arctic. Then they show back up in July and move the goal posts to to claim something like it the sixth lowest melt on record*.

          *since ~2000 in fine print.

        • Louis Hooffstetter says:

          I for one am thankful for ‘Griphilys’ (although I don’t want to catch it myself), as Griff seems to have developed a better sense of humor while getting lambasted here.

        • ann other says:

          Are you certain about your description of Griff? There is one using the same moniker from Kaipara Harbour, Northland, New Zealand who posts in a very similar style, using the alarmist blogs as proof of his talking points and abusing all and sundry who disagree with him.
          Here is an example of a number of his posts
          https://yournz.org/2018/11/27/open-forum-tuesday-210/

      • Colorado Wellington says:

        “Is Griff a real person … the change in the character of the posts of late is quite bizarre.”

        Mr GrimNasty:

        One of Griff’s multiple personalities is the unpleasant bed-wetting Ms Griff.

        Griff may or may not know what’s her problem.

      • MGJ says:

        A common theme is a seemingly insatiable craving for climate Armageddon and death on an unprecedented scale, with attacks on anyone thinking otherwise.

    • spike55 says:

      Desperate comment griffool..

      with ZERO merit.

      Do try harder.

    • Anon says:

      Now, just think maybe out of chance, Manhattan Island will be one of the cherries not to experience 1.15 m of sea level rise but Baltimore and Boston do, that would be some Cherry to be sitting on.

      Likewise, what would happen if the UK was not one of those cherries and the Netherlands was a cherry? – then the Netherlands would have finally be at a higher sea level than the UK, thus needing a name change

      Anyway, I noticed that Tony has a pretty hot hand at picking the cherries, so maybe a good solution for the UK folks would be just to move to one of the stations Tony selects and avoid the deluge?

  8. Disillusioned says:

    Who is cherry-picking?

    “??? ?????? ????? ???? ??? ?????? ?? ???? ????? 70 ??????? ?? ??? ?? ???? ????????.”

    all
    1a : the whole amount, quantity, or extent of needed
    b : as much as possible
    2 : every member or individual component
    3 : the whole number or sum
    4 : every
    5 : any
    https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/all

    He said listed all. I count 9 sites he listed. You cherry-picked three of them.

  9. Dave Ward says:

    If we are getting more wet weather, the driver of the red ’68 Beetle should be well placed to cope with the resultant flooding. Engine at the back, so (fairly well) protected from bow waves, and it won’t have an air intake low down at the front, like so many modern vehicles. Don’t I remember VW claiming in their adverts that the Bug’s body shell was watertight, and it could float? And the “CL” registration was originally issued in the UEA’s home city, Norwich!

  10. richard says:

    Brewery companies know better-

    “The popularity of beer has long been in decline. Germans drank the equivalent of half a litre a day in 1976, but only around a third of a litre in 2012.

    Large breweries have blamed the disappointing results on the poor weather, as they have done for several years. The head of the German brewers’ union, Holger Eichele, said that “one reason for the significant drop in sales was the long winter followed by the so-so summer”

    Strange this as the Germans are signed up believers in gorebull warming.

  11. John F. Hultquist says:

    Pevensey Castle is now about 1.6 km from the water.
    That’s some sea level rise. Run!

  12. David of Aussie says:

    And lets not forget to factor in land surface movement.

    • Louis Hooffstetter says:

      David of Aussie nails it!

      I would guess that 95%+ of ‘sea level rise’ is due to post ice age isostatic adjustment and/or subsidence from sediment compaction. Tide gauge data from areas where isostatic rebound is occuring are intentionally ignored by the climate witch doctors and the propaganda media.

      • David of Aussie says:

        And how much of the generally accepted annual rise of sea level at around 1.7 – 1.8 mm per year can be attributed to continental erosion; with rivers and streams depositing sediment via rivers and streams into the worlds oceans?

        I would suggest a fair chunk which of course has zero to do with melting ice or snow.

  13. billtoo says:

    all this discussion makes me wonder. if it truly takes 1700 gallons of water to produce one pound of beef, where does the other 13,599 pounds go?

    • R Shearer says:

      Through 500 million straws per day.

    • Mark Luhman says:

      “all this discussion makes me wonder. if it truly takes 1700 gallons of water to produce one pound of beef, where does the other 13,599 pounds go?” Who came up with that garbage it works out over 500 gallons a day per animal. Can’t lefties do simple math? Maybe if the feed was irrigated to grow it. Even at that the feed would be very soggy. The number from my short research looks to be one third to one half, and since most alfalfa and grain is grown is grown by natural rainfall the water would just end up not being used by humans and most of the plant it would grow naturally would just rot at the end.

  14. Squidly says:

    I laugh so hard at the “rising sea level” squealing … even at the absolutely worst “projected” sea level rise projections, a freaking snail can out run the rise. I am pretty certain I will be just fine. It is a sad day when a simple creature like a snail is more adept at handling nature than modern man. Sad day indeed.

  15. David of Aussie says:

    I found this site which deals with coastal cliff and beach erosion around the town of Seaford (Sussex, England). Of course there is a huge differences between erosion processes and sea level change. Still some interesting time lapse photos across the 20th century. Make of them what you want.

    http://www.sussex.ac.uk/geography/researchprojects/coastview/Rendels_postcards/seaford_head.htm

  16. GCsquared says:

    I don’t see any reason to think that the “Past Sea Level Rise” graph at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Past_sea_level is NOT telling the essential story. Simply, rapid glacial melting very quickly lifted sea levels until about 7000 years ago, to within a few meter of today’s levels. Since then, melting slowed down greatly, and sea level rise rates plateau’d to the more gradual values we’ve been seeing over the last 100 years.

    I don’t see any tidegauge data, or any other (unadjusted), contradicting this picture in any significant way.

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