Quantifying Heatwave Hysteria

Lots of news about record heat in the Midwest.

The Union of Concerned Scientists says that heat is going to make the Midwest become unlivable in future decades.

Let’s see how their claims compare with reality. Yesterday was the hottest day of the summer in the Midwest. The peak temperature was 97 degrees, and the average temperature was 91.7 degrees.

Compare vs. July 14, 1936 when Illinois and Indiana were 114 degrees, Iowa and Wisconsin were 113 degrees, Missouri was 112 degrees, Minnesota and Ohio were 110 degrees, and Michigan was a nice, cool 108 degrees. Average temperature in the Midwest was 106 degrees – more than fourteen degrees warmer than this year’s hottest day.

The graph plots the average Midwest temperature for every July day since 1895.  The hottest day of 2019 was about six degrees above the median July temperature of 85 degrees.

The hottest day of 2019 was just above the median peak temperature for all July days.

The average July daily maximum temperature has been declining in the Midwest since the 19th century, with this year just about average so far.  However, with cool air moving into the Midwest, it is likely that July, 2019 will drop considerably before the month is over.

The likelihood of hot July weather in the Midwest has plummeted since the 1930’s, with all recent years being among the coolest on record.

Compare vs. an actual heatwave from the 1930’s.

TimesMachine: Saturday July 11, 1936 – NYTimes.com

The Union of Concerned Scientists is making claims which have no basis in science, and are the exact opposite of reality.  Their agenda has nothing to do with science.

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7 Responses to Quantifying Heatwave Hysteria

  1. Mark Amey says:

    We often have entire months with temperatures in the low 40s C and the odd 45 degree day in most of Australia in summer. How do we survive? Official records only started in the 1900s, but I found a newspaper article which recorded the temperature at 46 to 47 degrees in 1850.

    I’m afraid this hysteria is the same the world over.

  2. Malcolm says:

    This story from our esteemed weatherman came up this week. Stating that June 2019 is the warmest june on record, along with the last 2 years. Would love to see Hellers analysis of that one. https://www.wbrz.com/news/2019-may-join-last-four-years-as-warmest-on-record

  3. Michael Spencer says:

    My mother remarked that it was 117F at Moree in New South Wales on the day I was born in 1938. It’s a funny thing, but I can’t remember it; but I do remember her slowly frying an egg on the metal-topped kitchen table on one occasion.

    All of these alarmist claims about “the hottest year evah!” are just that: alarmist nonsense! (Send money …..)

    Hmmm …. Today in Melbourne the weather is doing what it does at this time of the year – it’s cool, with occasional showers, and snow up in the mountains. (We’re upside-down in Australia, don’t you know?) And it’s a funny thing, the alarmist articles in our Media seem to be a little less frequent at the the moment, but just wait for the first (inevitable) hot day! “The End of The World in a Decade! Oh woe! Climate Emergency!” (or words to that effect) – Send Money!

  4. John F. Hultquist says:

    While looking for a heat event (1950s) in Western Pennsylvania
    I found a cold event.
    I was too young to remember, but the broken trees from the snow
    and ice were apparent many years later.

  5. Bill says:

    I’ve noticed that the local TV weather stations now use some sort of “heat index” number that is a combination of heat and humidity – whenever it is larger than the air temperature.

    For example, this past week, the TV weather maps showed scary numbers all over the state of 105, 108, 104, 110. You had to look for the fine print that told you that these terrifying numbers were not air temperature but heat index numbers. It never really got much hotter than mid-90’s.

    They use the same trick with wind chill numbers in the winter.

  6. STEVEN K CLOSE says:

    Great stuff, Mr. Heller!

  7. STEVEN K CLOSE says:

    Hey, I see you also ride a bike. This pic taken some years back, but I’m still riding c 150 week in Santa Barbara area.

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