“A NASA Study Found”

In a December 2018 article, NASA claimed that Arctic sea ice had lost two-thirds of its thickness since 1958.

Wintertime Arctic sea ice growth slows long-term decline: NASA – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

That claim is simple enough to check out.  In 1958, Arctic sea ice was 7 feet, or two meters thick. Scientists were forecasting an ice-free Arctic within a generation.

The Changing Face of the Arctic; The Changing Face of the Arctic – The New York Times

On the date of the NASA article, Arctic sea ice also averaged about two meters thick – indicating little or no change since 1958.

CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20181206.png (758×631)

In the 1985 DOE Report, Vinnikov showed that Arctic sea ice declined sharply until the century low in the mid-1950s, and then started to increase again.

Projecting the climatic effects of increasing carbon dioxide 

Vinnikov extended his numbers in the 1990 IPCC report.

1990 IPCC Report

This chart combines the 1985 and 1990 Vinnikov graphs.

The decline in Arctic sea ice from the 1920s until the 1950s was widely reported.

07 Apr 1923 – NORTH POLE MELTING. – Trove

17 Dec 1939, Page 15 – Harrisburg Sunday Courier at Newspapers.com

29 Sep 1939 – What is The World Coming To? – Trove

13 Oct 1940, Page 76 – Hartford Courant at Newspapers.com

31 May 1947 – MELTING ICE CAP DANGER – Trove

18 Feb 1952 – Melting Icecaps Mystery – Trove

The subsequent cooling and increase in sea ice after after the 1950s, was also widely reported.

January 30, 1961 – NYTimes

18 Jul 1963 – Glaciers Grow In Norway

U.S. and Soviet Press Studies of a Colder Arctic – The New York Times

14 Apr 1973, Page 8 – Iowa City Press-Citizen

International Team of Specialists Finds No End in Sight to 30‐Year Cooling Trend in Northern Hemisphere

By WALTER SULLIVAN JAN. 5, 1978

A gradual increase in area of the northern circumpolar vortex, the massive flow of frigid air around the Arctic, has been recorded by Drs. Angell and Korshover. In 1976 its southern’ extent was the greatest in 10 years and last winter it was 1 percent larger than in any previous winter observed.

Snow and ice cover in the Northern Hemisphere have varied greatly but there has been a net increase according to a satellite photograph analysis by Dr George J. Kukla of Columbia University’s Lamont‐Doherty Geological Observatory. This has been most marked in the spring when so highly reflective a cover returns much solar energy into space at a time of intense solar radiation.

International Team of Specialists Finds No End in Sight to 30‐Year Cooling Trend in Northern Hemisphere – The New York Times

Arctic sea ice growth over the past month has been second fastest in the MASIE recard – just behind  last year.

masie_4km_allyears_extent_sqkm.csv

It appears that NASA simply made up the 1958 number, and assumed that no one would do any fact checking.

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9 Responses to “A NASA Study Found”

  1. arn says:

    The Vinnikov Graph shows 3 massive declines within just 15 year(‘4h5,53,60)
    and also 3 massive peaks that followed those declines with a massive peak in ’63.
    It seems arctic ice is changing as the climate does .
    just much faster and it has been doing so since forever.

  2. Al Shelton says:

    Why are these fraudulent people still employed by NASA?
    Trump needs to do more swamp draining… IMO.

    • Jim says:

      This is why the left is desperate to impeach Trump, they know he is likely to do that in a second term while not having to worry about getting re-elected.

  3. Anon says:

    Yes, but older ice is more experienced than newer ice, because it already has a year or more under its belt of defending itself against warmer ocean waters. The new ice is apt to freak out and melt, instead of staying calm and huddling down and waiting. With no older ice round, the newer ice will not have the wisdom or institutional memory passed down through the generations.

  4. Jonathan Ranes says:

    That there is some pretty damn good journalism. Shite they are just lie lie lie

  5. rah says:

    A great deal of it is weather! More often than not a relatively sudden decline in sea ice of any age or thickness results from wind and wave action which pushes it out into warmer waters. A big storm is what caused the low in 2012 for example.

  6. Dan Pangburn says:

    Gullible people have been falsely indoctrinated to believe that burning fossil fuels causes climate change. CO2 has no significant effect on climate. Water vapor is a greenhouse gas and it has been increasing faster than possible from feedback. https://watervaporandwarming.blogspot.com
    http://globalclimatedrivers2.blogspot.com

  7. Phil. says:

    On the date of the NASA article, Arctic sea ice also averaged about two meters thick – indicating little or no change since 1958.

    Older ice being thicker the following indicates a significant reduction in thickness:

    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/1999/11/Figure5-1-350×443.png

    From NSIDC:
    “Sea ice thickness and sea ice age are not the same thing, but sea ice age provides a proxy for thickness. A study published in 2007 found a dramatic change in the age of sea ice in the central Arctic Basin since the mid-1980s. In 1987, 57 percent of the ice pack was at least five years old, and a quarter of that ice was at least nine years old. By 2007, only 7 percent of the ice pack was at least five years old, and virtually none of the ice was at least nine years old (Maslanik et al, 2007). Multiyear ice coverage actually increased between March 2013 and March 2014, thanks to more ice surviving the summer melt season than had survived in the record-breaking summer of 2012. But overall, multiyear sea ice continues to decline in the Arctic (Perovich et al. 2014).”

    Here’s some thickness data since 1958:
    https://nsidc.org/sites/nsidc.org/files/images//kwok_rothrock.gif

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