New warning on Arctic sea ice melt
The researchers are now working with a new computer model for Arctic sea ice
Scientists who predicted a few years ago that Arctic summers could be ice-free by 2013 now say summer sea ice will probably be gone in this decade.
The original prediction, made in 2007, gained Wieslaw Maslowski’s team a deal of criticism from some of their peers.
Now they are working with a new computer model – compiled partly in response to those criticisms – that produces a “best guess” date of 2016.
Disrupting the Borg is expensive and time consuming!
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They simply don’t give up.
We really have to cull 95% of the world population otherwise we’re doomed.
The looming economic collapse will probably sort things out.
Be prepared for a bit of collateral damage, though.
Do these guy ever go out into the real world?
It appears that they just sit in their computer labs and speculate.
I’m working on a new term –
“empixellated”
Describes those who spend their time looking at computer screens and not much looking outside to check
These men/women must not have gotten the hockey team memo. They aren’t supposed to be making falsifiable predictions!
-Scott
The models, in general use the correct science, the correct mathematical analysis, and are able to give a reasonable precision in outcomes.
However, the modelers simply lose sight of the fact that each and every initial assumption increases the uncertainty of the outcome. There are so many unknowns and so many variables, particularly with various ocean oscillations and ocean atmosphere interactions which are not understood both in regional and worldwide applications, that in the end the models are really just an exercise in futility.
Modelers try to recreate past changes, with and without CO2 and then apply the model to current climatic conditions. In the process too many unknowns have simply been assumed.
I trust they are making all of their input readily available to all to see.
And their code for scrutiny?
computer, or moral?
The new computer model has a major input from “Our Survey Says” TV gameshow.
“The Old Model Sucked Really Bad, But The New One Is Awesome” because we’re the kind of people who will say anything for those freshly printed greenbacks the federal reserve hands out.
I can imagine a little fantasy play where a bullet headed Mr. Climatologist sidles up to a battered and bruised Lady Truth …
“Aw, baby, you know I love you. You know I wouldn’t hurt you for the world, but I love you so much I just couldn’t help myself. You just made me so angry! I will never hurt you again, baby. You know those bruises on your cheeks will heal up but I won’t ever stop loving you. Look at these fine grant proposals I put together for you! You know I mean it when I say that all that fighting is over — that will never happen again. Come on, baby! You know I am the one who loves you the most! Just this one more time. It will be different from now on, I swear!”
The interesting question now is to what degree do they believe their own bullshit? Is it all for external consumption now?
They believe what they have to believe.
If they stop believing, there goes their jobs, their junkets, their mortgages, their futures….
Remember: these people are virtually unemployable – in any real sense of the word – in the world outside their insane asylum.
In other news, in response to criticism Al Gore announced that by 2016 he will lose 150 lbs. of fat on a new diet similar to Chris Christie’s dietary model.
“The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.”
Marcus Aurielius
Academics kowtow to common ground.
For many years I have been undecided whether the majority of these people that peddle this stuff are genuine morons or just plain conmen. I’ve now no doubt that there are both at play here.
If you give me enough (genuine) historical data and two end targets at opposite ends of the spectrum, I will be able to reproduce both without falsifying any data.
But even if we imagine the climate computer models have been built with some degree of integrity, which to be fair I am sure some have, at every assumption we lose x amount of certainty that we are on the correct path to the final graph. The shear amount of assumptions made make it pointless beyond comprehension. It’s like that little thing called the chaos theory has been very conveniently swept under the carpet.
2016? Unbelievable. Has anybody told them what’s actually happening in the Arctic?
2016 plus or minus 3 years. That makes 2013 within that range. Fail.
This is perfect. In just three years (2016) Maslowski will have been wrong twice, And his second prediction will be twice as wrong as his first one!
Exactly. I love short term predictions like this. Maybe he’ll lose his job if he is wrong often enough.
If they weren’t making so much money off of this behavior, I would call it insane.
Ice free summers are never going to happen with all that multi year one year ice hanging about, lol.
Andy
If these guys charlatans and Climate Whores* were giving out information about companies for people to purchase stocks, based upon their “expert” information, they would all be in prison for fraud, theft and racketeering. Plain and simple.
*They get paid for putting out whatever it is their clients want.
10 PRINT “The Arctic is screaming!”
20 GOTO 10
Reckon I can sell that to the UN for a teensy billion..