1986 : World’s Greatest Climatologist Predicted Five Degrees Warming By 2010

By PHILIP SHABECOFF, Special to the New York Times
Published: June 11, 1986

Dr. James E. Hansen of the Goddard Space Flight Center’s Institute for Space Studies said research by his institute showed that because of the ”greenhouse effect” that results when gases prevent heat from escaping the earth’s atmosphere, global temperatures would rise early in the next century to ”well above any level experienced in the past 100,000 years.” Steeper Rise in Next Century

Average global temperatures would rise by one-half a degree to one degree Fahrenheit from 1990 to 2000 if current trends are unchanged, according to Dr. Hansen’s findings. Dr. Hansen said the global temperature would rise by another 2 to 4 degrees in the following decade.


About Tony Heller

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20 Responses to 1986 : World’s Greatest Climatologist Predicted Five Degrees Warming By 2010

  1. Steve Case says:


  2. Steve Case says:


  3. lance says:

    yes, i can feel the heat, when i turned on my furnace in August!

  4. Eliza says:

    Wow things are moving fast over at Aussie land!
    I think we have got ourselves a mainstream reporter who was a “believer” rapidly working out that there is more of a newspaper story in the “Fraud” than parroting the IPCC.Bet USA is next very quickly.Get Ready Steven Goddard! LOL

  5. Eliza says:

    Most Australians hate been duped. You will find that most left wing “believers” and of course right wing perons will be outraged that they have been taken for a ride for so long.maybe AGW will fall this year after all.

  6. Andy DC says:

    Yes, these clowns have a track record and the longer it gets the more idiotic it looks.

  7. Mike says:

    I think this is why the furor by the recent global warming crowd. They know they have a few years to before their predictions fall apart. So, vilify the the person that is bring new facts and analysis to the table. Basically, end the scientific method.

    • bernal says:

      No. They just move the goal post. Catastrophic anthropogenic global-regional/wet-dry/hot-cold/stay the same, is always occurring. More dangerous than you can imagine and sneaky, therefore more dangerous still.

  8. Jimmy Haigh. says:

    Note that they always hedged their bets: “..if current trends are unchanged,..” . It never fooled me though.

  9. Jimmy Haigh. says:

    Hey – they could call it “Drowning Man”!

  10. tom0mason says:

    Hansen’s stupid notion relies on the rest of the planet’s processes being paused or even neutered.
    If CO2 was to start such a massive amount of warming then water (ocean heating and increased cloud cover) would immediately dampen the effect. High humidity and rainfall would ensue washing CO2 from the atmosphere. On top of that nature, much to the chagrin of the Chinese, would unleash a green revolution on land and water of massive proportions. In a short time (IMO 1-3 years) the natural balance would be asserted again.

  11. philjourdan says:

    There was 5 degrees of warming here – from Jan 1, 1986 to July 1, 2010. More in fact. 😉

  12. Willis Eschenbach says:

    Great find as always, my friend. For the period 1990 to 2010, Hansen forecast a range of 2.5° – 5°F, which is 1.4° – 2.8°C. In the event, the warming was on the order of 0.3°C … however, as Paul Ehrlich has proven, being a failed serial doomcaster is no barrier to further alarmism.


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