There is going to be a sharp drop in extent over the next week, due to a large high pressure system which will compact the ice in the western Arctic and the East Siberian Sea.
Disrupting the Borg is expensive and time consuming!
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http://www.cfact.org/2014/08/07/british-antartctic-survey-trapped-without-power-during-record-cold-55-4-c/
Get Reggie down there quick
…and that will make more MYI
Does compaction of ice result is less ice mass than before the compaction? Are we concerned about ice mass or ice extent?
Not in and of itself no. Personally I am “concerned about ice mass” but that is rather more difficult to measure than extent. Perhaps sea ice area is a better proxy for volume/mass than extent?
My CT crystal ball forecasts a small uptick in area on Saturday. A net decline of around 50 k over the next couple of days. What happens to mass over that time is harder to quantify, but most certainly the 2014 melt continues.
Get ready for Headlines about melting Arctic Ice !!
Go to the blog Sunshine Hours http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com, for a day by day, blow by blow recitation on the progress of both arctic and Antarctic ice. Close up maps, and understandable tables. Worth a visit to check out Steve’s predictions over the next few days.
If high pressure centers more over into the E Siberian like the models are showing, that will bring N/NE winds across the Beaufort for a few days next week. Ice will be moving more into Alaskan coast toward Barrow. Weather pattern also keeping N/NE winds and colder temps across NW Passage. Don’t look for that to open up this year. And N winds have been pretty dominant into the Barents, forcing ice into that sea all summer. Very little leaving out of the Fram Strait as winds have been mostly southerly there. Eventually low pressure will become more dominant across the basin again. Wash, rinse, repeat cycle like last month. Temps from near the pole down into the Beaufort/Chukchi have been running from 1 to as much as -5 deg C since late July. Seems most melting is bottom melt this year.
Using the IPCC approved
predictionprojection method of Ouija board with cross-correlation on the Rune stones, my forecast for the amount of Arctic ice will be …..
1.287 leagues² ± 0.81 furlongs² with a 97% confidence.
Sorry for the units but we could only contact an old mariner.
I’ve stumbled upon a way to get graphics into comments 🙂
https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/statuses/498027723525472256
Eyeballing that graph suggests that the 2014 minimum extent will be less than 2006, does it not?
My forecast was that 2014 would be “close to 2006” based on DMI. You are incapable of honest discussion.
No I’m not, although I am certainly raising the obvious question about the apparent disconnect between DMI and NSIDC “extent”.
Any comment Tony?
NSIDC uses a low pass filter which averages 7-10 days of past data. DMI is closer to real time data.
Perhaps NSIDC do that for a good reason Tony? FYI their raw “unfiltered” data is of course available from:
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/NH_seaice_extent_nrt.csv
ROFL – I caught them cheating with this technique two years ago
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/08/09/nsidcs-2012-nature-trick/
Is this guy’s last name really ‘Hunt’ or is it ‘Hump’ (the transitive verb, not the noun, as in “to hump something to the where its eyes bulge out”)?
.
Apparently, Jim Hunt, this is not the place to be for “honest discussion”. Jim’s comments are more or less typical.
Oh poor widdle liberal – did he get his feewings hurt?
Poor widdle liberal …
That’s certainly what the available evidence suggests Pesce!