Roy Spencer’s Prediction

Dr. Roy Spencer forecasts that RSS TLT data will be altered :

“I expect there will soon be a revised TLT product from RSS which shows enhanced warming, too.

Here’s what I’m predicting:

1) neither John Christy nor I will be asked to review the paper

2) it will quickly sail through peer review (our UAH V6 paper is still not in print nearly 1 year after submission)

3) it will have many authors, including climate model people and the usual model pundits (e.g. Santer), which will supposedly lend legitimacy to the new data adjustments.

Let’s see how many of my 3 predictions come true.


Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

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33 Responses to Roy Spencer’s Prediction

  1. wert says:


  2. Steve Case says:

    Hmmm, I just checked Dr. Spencer’s web page
    and I don’t see that. I’ll have to go back and look harder.
    Anyway, Dr. Ben Santer et al will no doubt get wind of this and it would be an incredibly brazen manifestation of chutzpah to go ahead and do this. But then there’s the Karl paper and all the temperature adjustments and the sea level adjustments the the ridiculous methane bomb meme to name a few.

    But it will be President Trump in a few days. It’s gonna get real inneresting.

    • tonyheller says:

      Probably because he just told me it this morning.

    • Eric Simpson says:

      The BS Artists will do their criminal revisions despite Spencer’s prediction.

      It’s not really ‘brazen’ because the lying Chicken Littles know that few will hear about anything but the final (revised) number, with “peer reviewed” (pal reviewed) thrown in for good measure. A travesty.

  3. Mark says:

    It doesn’t matter.. :) Cold global warming winter has killed California’s tunnel tree.

    • Steve Case says:

      All the remaining sequoia trees with tunnels are now either logs lying their side or are dead, according to the Forest Service.
      They still had one in Yosemite when we were there three years ago.

  4. Fred Harwood says:

    And this one in Leggett.

    • John Silver says:

      Even I think that’s disgraceful.

      • Fred Harwood says:

        I don’t understand, John. An historical bit of the California coastal forest well lumbered a hundred years ago was saved for the admiration of following generations by a momentary fad. You should see the wonder in upturned faces of the children who look upon the grandeur of that tree and the others nearby in the grove.
        And I must ask, what would you appropriate by “Even I”?

        • John Silver says:

          I’m without shame, but that is too much for a genuine, card-carrying tree hugger like me. (not the usual superficial lot)

  5. JDHuffman says:

    I bought two new outdoor thermometers last year. They are fairly accurate, probably both within a half a degree F.

    But, soon, all such thermometers will have a built in “adjust”, so that they read 2 degrees higher and agree with the “official” temps!

    That’s the only way this ongoing deceit will work….

    • Andy DC says:

      The outdoor max/min thermometer I bought in 2015 often reads 5-10 degrees colder than the “official” DC station, Reagan National Airport. To make it worse, the spread between the thermometers noticeably increased between 2015 and 2016. I believe my thermometer is accurate, because it exactly matches the two indoor thermometers I have.

      I hope Trump starts draining the putrid NOAA/NASA swamp on day one!

  6. Rud Istvan says:

    Mears is already recommending his TTT rather than TLT because it shows more warming. And he has (absurdly) said the surface records are better than his RSS– ignoring the RSS was started precisely because of surface record problems. RSS was fine until the pause showed up

    • AndyG55 says:

      If TTT is warmer than TLT, that means heat is NOT getting trapped at the surface by the CO2 blanket. :-)

      • David Anderson says:

        Bingo, not just the hot spot. Models show troposphere overall 20 percent warmer then the surface projected warming.

        Leaving it alone, this alone disapproves CAGW.

        ALL skeptical evidence MUST be peer reviewed away.

      • Eric Simpson says:

        Yup. If Co2 was actually doing its supposed thing we would have had uniform warming up to 15km. But no. The “fingerprint” for CO2 is missing. So their theory has been falsified, invalidated, and is baloney.

        This falsification via the lack of a tropospheric hot spot is consistent with evidence from ALL the historical timeframes which in every case shows zero evidence that CO2 has any effect at all on climate temperatures. Most notably is the vaunted ice core data showing CO2 does not lead but *follows* changes in temperatures. This outstanding 4 minute video makes that point about CO2 clear as day:

  7. John Silver says:

    I predict that there will be unfortunate accidents.

  8. Patrick healy says:

    Will the remains of that big tree be pelleted and shipped to Drax power station in England together with all the rest from O’Bama la la land?
    We should be told.

  9. AndyG55 says:

    RSS 3.3 for ContUSA is currently a very good trend match for the only pristine surface data in the world, USCRN (as is UAH USA48) .

    Adjust to a warming trend and that sampling validation disappears.

    This graph is up to date.

    Note the large drop in December (I graph using monthly centres)

    USCRN has higher peaks and troughs, so the very slight difference between trends will disappear with continued cooler weather.

  10. AndyG55 says:

    OT, I’m having some fun with a linear trend monkey.

    Here is a couple of quick questions

    1) Does this graph show “warming”?

    2) What would be the linear trend calculated in Excel or any other trend calculator) for this graph?

    • 1) Depends on whether your office is in a nondescript government building in NYC near a restaurant made famous on a show with no meaning. Or not.
      2) y = 0.0005878140x – 0.3174195407

      • AndyG55 says:

        well done! :-)

        see, simple sine curve has a linear trend..

        …… if you want it to :-)

        Here is one you can play with .. obviously shows a cooling trend, right? ;-)

        Find the linear trend.

  11. AndyG55 says:

    USCRN is now in for December

    Confirms the MASSIVE drops in temperatures for December 2016

    In Celcius,changes in anomalies are…..

    USCRN… -3.03℃
    UAH USA48… -1.85℃
    RSS3.3… -3.29℃

    And that’s in winter. !

    Get those heaters pumping , guys !!!

    And be very glad you haven’t gone too much for the unreliables.

  12. cary says:

    Would it not be great that after the 20th that there would not be a change in temperatures report. Honest scientists would be in charge for a change instead of paid political hacks.

  13. gregole says:

    I find that depressing. Certainly hope the “raw” data will still be available.

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