Current Ice-Free Arctic Forecast

If current trends continue, the Arctic will be ice-free at 12;39 PM on December 14 – with temperatures of -30C.

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

Remember last week, when Arctic experts were certain that winter-like storms would break up the ice, and that they would be able to blame it on global warming?

They can’t predict next week, but their 30 year forecasts are rock solid. 97% of scientists agree.

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36 Responses to Current Ice-Free Arctic Forecast

  1. Griff says:

    and this will show you extent at second lowest, now just under 2007

    On a slightly different measure, ‘only’ 3rd lowest

    Here you see how the ice is broken up

    Still nearly a month to go on the melt season in what has been a very cold year in the central arctic, compared to recent years… and still we’re in record low territiry

  2. Stewart Pid says:

    Ha Ha …. when Tony wrote above “arctic experts” I had a mental image of griff in a tin foil cap and a child’s wooden sword … all set to do battle with us deplorable deniers :-)
    Fall on ur sword Griff, you f’en loser!!

  3. Tom Bakert says:

    I believe that Griff has missed the most serious problem apparent in the Arctic Sea Ice Extent extrapolation, and if she did see the problem she would certainly be in a hysterical panic: It is obvious that by January 2018 the arctic sea ice will have gone negative, at which point ice will be sucked from the south pole and cause global climate Armageddon. Boy, is she stupid!

  4. Stewart Pid says:

    Griff … the ice is forming up at Obuoy14
    Only -2 c but I imagine the water is freshier than normal sea water due to the abundance of melt water from melt water ponds that had been on the ice.
    You are pretty clueless and have obviously never been in the north if you think there are 4 more weeks of melting …. this time of year the temps are dropping noticeably. Most importantly there will be melting in warm locations & freezing in cool locations but the number of cool locations is rapidly increasing and becoming the norm.

    • menicholas says:

      The sun is very near the horizon up there. It is spiraling around the sky at a very low angle, somewhere just under 9 degrees above the horizon at the north coast of Greenland.
      That angle is what we call a setting sun here in the US.
      I think heat loss to a clear sky may even now exceed insolation.
      On a cloudy day it is barely even light out.
      In about 5 weeks it will spiral below the horizon at the pole, and the zone of zero sun will then begin to expand outward day by day.
      By then there is zero insolation at the pole, and so heat lost to space is continuous and rapid.
      Just think how fast it gets cold after sunset when the air is very dry…several degrees per hour.
      Winter is coming, and coming fast.
      It has already begun snowing in many places in the northern hemisphere, as of last weekend.
      It is incredible to me that the climate liars are actually still doubling down on their panic-mongering bullshit, even as we appear likely to go from no warming to pronounced global cooling.
      Locked up in stocks in the town squares and city centers would seem about right for these asshats.

    • sunsettommy says:

      Melt rate drops way down around this time of year,thus the pack will OBVIOUSLY be over 4 Wadhams in size at the minimum.

  5. Brian D says:

    Here’s a look at the weather pattern for the upcoming week.
    Today’s map.

    • Brian D says:

      High pressure over the Laptev will move across to Canada, the migrate over N Greenland into the Barents/Greenland Seas. Low pressures will slowly weaken in the eastern, and western areas.

      • Brian D says:

        Then high pressure is forecast to build over the basin this coming weekend for a short time. So basically, this coming week will see the weather mellow out a bit.

  6. RAH says:

    Yep that Arctic Ice just has to be a melting away:

  7. Gary Seymour says:

    Rah- ‘Yep, that arctic ice just has to be melting away.’

    Yes, it is, still. Do you not understand that the ‘average’ arctic temperature is a measure of the overall temperature, and that there are differences in temperatures from area to area? The momentum of the warming is now starting to recede, but there are two more weeks of ice decline. Good luck with your idea that we are back to ‘normal’ ice levels. Two standard deviations below typical ice levels is not to be sneezed at.

    • gator69 says:

      Good luck with your idea that we are back to ‘normal’ ice levels. Two standard deviations below typical ice levels is not to be sneezed at.

      We are above the average for the past 9000 years. We are still recovering from the coldest period of the past 10,000 years. The sky is not falling Ms Little.

    • Rah says:

      Do you not understand that in the majority of the area it is FREEZING! thus all other things being equal there would be a net ice GAIN. And this is occurring more than a month before the end of the Astronomical summer! But here you are harping about melting ice.

    • menicholas says:

      The horror!
      Oh, dear Lord Almighty, how shall we survive the cataclysmic catastrophe of a temporarily somewhat less frigidly fatal Arctic wasteland?
      Are you insane, Gary?
      Or merely soft in the head?
      And by just what kind of logic does one consider any particular period of time “typical”, simply because it is “recent”?
      Things never stay the same.
      There is always some sort of trend in any particular physical parameter of the Earth.
      Is it your opinion that if Arctic ice was at the highest ever measured during the satellite era, and growing, that this would be a good thing for people, or commerce, or life in general?
      How do people become so tunnel blind that you think ice and cold temperatures are somehow a good thing?
      How is it that you are so incredibly gullible?
      Nothing to sneeze at?
      What a jackass.

    • AndyG55 says:

      “Good luck with your idea that we are back to ‘normal’ ice levels.”

      No, we are nowhere near back DOWN to normal sea ice levels.

      Arctic sea ice is current only a small amount below the EXTREME levels of the LIA. Late 1970’s was up with those LIA EXTREMES.

      If you really think the LIA was “normal” then move to Siberia.

    • AndyG55 says:

      I’m elsewhere at the moment, Gary, but look at the chart I posted higher up in this thread, and get some REALITY and PERSPECTIVE into your ignorant yabbering.

    • Andy DC says:

      Just because ice is lower than the outlier cherry picked year of 1979 does not mean that sea ice is much less than normal. If you take your “normal” as being the years going back to 1940, it is not far below normal at all.

    • sunsettommy says:


      you are a joke since what you wrote,

      “Two standard deviations below typical ice levels is not to be sneezed at.”

      are based on just a tiny bit of data,in a Holocene of around 11,000 years long. What would be “typical levels of ice” be,Gary?

      Meanwhile there are a number of published science papers showing that little to no Summer ice was rather common in the early part of the interglacial time.

      The last time it was considered ice FREE IN THE SUMMER, was during the MWP for a while.

      What is a normal level of ice…….., Gary?

    • Colorado Wellington says:

      Gary, there is one admirable quality about global warming cultists. They are strong in their faith and they never lose hope. I mean they never lose hope that bad things as they see it will soon happen to us all. Reading their comments gives me a strong sense that this is what they wished for this week:

  8. Gary Seymour says:

    Okay, all histrionics aside, where do you people imagine the summer low will end up?

    Since the average arctic temperature is now below freezing, do you think that the arctic ice melting is over? Is the ice extent now increasing? Would that be an historic first? The arctic sea ice maximum low is on August 17th for the first time ever? Or, maybe, you people would consider that the arctic low would actually occur in the middle of September?

    Wait and see… maybe the low will be less than/more than the previous year. But, what ever the outcome, I will guarantee that it will be less than today’s minimum. Bet you. Dare you to bet me.

    • gator69 says:


    • AndyG55 says:

      “imagine the summer low will end up?”

      WAY, WAY above the Holocene average.

      WAY, WAY above the levels of the MWP.

      Only a small amount below the extreme high level of the LIA and late 1970’s

    • AndyG55 says:

      “The arctic sea ice maximum low is on August 17th for the first time ever?”


      FFS.. get some historic perspective, bonehead !!

      Arctic sea ice levels are only just a bit below the HIGHEST they have been in the last 10,000 years

      Have you caught griff’s bed-wetting ignorance ????

      There is a cure.. its called REALITY

    • Colorado Wellington says:

      Okay, Gary, all histrionics aside. How many Wadhams do you project as this year’s minimum? Is it an integer or do you have it down to a decimal number? What is it going to be?

    • AndyG55 says:

      “Okay, all histrionics aside,”

      Only person with the anti-science histrionics is you.

      You seem to have caught the chicken-little, bed-wetting ignorance disease from griff or jimbo.

    • RAH says:

      I personally don’t give a crap where the ice edge ends up at the end of the Astronomical Summer because sea ice extent is a terrible proxy for temperatures due to the fact that the affect of storms, winds, waves, and currents has much greater immediate effect on the ice extent and area metrics than air temperature or SSTs do. The “record” 2012 minimum had far more to do with heavy storms hitting the Arctic than temperatures.

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