Fakest Storm Of The Century

They can’t forecast hurricanes two hours in advance, but they know exactly what they will be doing 100 years from now.

Weather Street: Tropical Storm Irma, Hurricane Irma 2017

28 MPH is the new 75 MPH.

Florida Wind Speed Map – Air Sports Net

This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

95 Responses to Fakest Storm Of The Century

  1. TimA says:

    If NOAA/NASA are involved with these readings or forecasts, given their penchant for manipulating data to fit their agenda, it would seem it would be in their best interest to continue that practice in the case of this hurricane.

  2. Latitude says:

    One of our neighbors decided to go out and take a walk in the bay…..In the middle of Irma


    • Gail Combs says:

      Did he manage to win a Darwin Award??

      • Latitude says:

        Did you watch the video?…there’s no water in the bay..he’s walking on bay bottom

        ..and please stop this darwin, write your name on your arm crap

        Fire department was out 15 mins after the storm inspecting bridges and power lines….elec co was out before they were…water company out inspecting pipes…cops are out…and on and on
        …reporters were in everyone’s back yard

        ..they stayed

        • Gail Combs says:

          1. I can not watch videos my computer does not support them.

          2. I am well aware that the front of the hurricane plus low tide caused the water to go far out to sea.

          3. I am also well aware that a storm surge from the rear end of the hurricane causes the water to come rushing back like a slow tsunami and people were therefore warned NOT TO DO WHAT YOUR NEIGHBOR DID!

          From what you said, your neighbor was not dumb enough to get caught up in exploring, end up far out and find he ran out of time. There are a heck of a lot of people who are not that smart and I meet a lot of them in my business. I saw two of them this weekend for example.

          • Latitude says:

            yes Mom

          • Gail Combs says:

            Ok Bro..

            After the idiot who cut in front of my truck and trailer @ 70MPH and THEN slammed on his brakes, I am not feeling charitable towards idiotic moves…
            Especially after a couple of hours of hauling kids out from behind ponies and the &^$%*# teen who slap my pony with a frighten timid girl, his sister, on it. The pony reared and whirled and I had to grab the girl as she started to fall.

            Some days it amazes me that so many people actually survive their stupidity.

          • Latitude says:

            I’m just damn glad you’re ok!!! I also glad you weren’t hauling a trailer at the time!….cause you could have been! that was close…

          • Gail Combs says:

            I WAS hauling a trailer. Luckily I was driving Hubby’s dually and a small trailer so I did not jackknife. My truck is getting the Tranny rebuilt —SLOWLY since it is 25 years old and it is hard to get parts.

            Oh and the idiot almost clipped my front bumper when he cut in front of me. My passenger turned the air blue for over ten minutes.

          • Lars P. says:

            Oh and the idiot almost clipped my front bumper when he cut in front of me. My passenger turned the air blue for over ten minutes.

            That’s where a dash cam comes in handy. You can at least show what the idiot did to a larger audience (not to talk about insurance if it comes to a crash) and you get a lot of clicks :)
            BTw, thinking about it, are you sure the idiot didn’t want to cause you crashing in his rear?

          • Gail Combs says:

            Lars P.,
            If he was trying to cause an accident, he had a death wish.

            I was driving a dually with a diesel engine, (7000# empty) lots of steel in the bed (Six pony carousal) and a 14 foot heavy trailer with four ponies plus gear. (5000# plus) So my rig was well over 12,000 pounds.

            He was driving a newer pregnant rollerskate. (3,000#)

            I was also in the middle lane in relatively heavy traffic.

          • Colorado Wellington says:

            Gail, I had a similar thing happen to me yesterday. Fortunately, I was driving a lighter truck without a trailer.

            I was coming to a level intersection on a divided highway with two lanes through in my direction. The right through-lane had a few waiting vehicles and a long but length-limited left-turn lane was full of them. My lane between them was clear. The light turned green for our through-lanes just in time for me to continue without breaking. I was about two dozen feet from the last standing car in the turn lane to my left when a sedan from a frontage on the right darted onto the highway in front of me and stopped in my lane because it could not fit into the left-turn lane. There was clearly not enough asphalt left for me to come to a full stop in my lane or behind the still standing cars in the lane to my right.

            It paid I that I kept checking my mirrors and my right side so I knew there was nobody there. I was able to swerve the old truck around the stopped sedan through the lane on my right and get right back before hitting the last car still standing there. I haven’t done an evasive racing maneuver like that in a long time and for sure never in a truck.

            Since I didn’t have a passenger, it fell to me to turn the air blue and purple.

      • Andy DC says:


        Am glad to see that you are still alive and kicking!

  3. AndyG55 says:

    From Paul at notalot… a LONG history of real hurricanes.


  4. arn says:

    Just like everything else from the climate crap front.
    Much ado about nothing.

    Now that the biggest nothing ever hit the american coast and you are all dead
    you have all the time in the world to realise that what once was called an average run-of-the-mill hurricane is now the ultimate desaster.
    The weather has not changed,nor the climate
    just the way those freaks called scientists and Journalists talk about it.
    (btw- that’s the exact same method they used to remove Saddam,Ghaddafi
    and try with Assad– this guys never changed,neither in the good nor bad way.
    Just the way the western MSM started talking about them.
    They were declared climate change/co2/Hitler by the media)

    i would not be surprised that these guys are already on their way to modify/change
    their hurricane categories so that they can call nowadays category 2 hurricanes category 4 hurricanes and then pretend:”We never ever had so many cat.4 hurricanes =proof for global warming.

    The good thing about storms is:
    in contrary to climate people who live there can experience
    by themselves that reality has nothing to do with MSM coverage and doom&gloom rhetorics.
    Some strong winds,as usual,
    no sea level rise etc.

    • Jeff Jones says:

      Speaking of MSM; what ever happened to the homeless crisis that was on their lips 24/7/365 during the Regan administration. Or Algore’s ozone hole during the Bush administration that was to fry the world to a crisp. NEVER hear about those to today even though nothing has changed, have a different crisis of the month (Russia and global warming). Hmmm. . . .

      • arn says:

        I was a child during the “ozon hole”- crisis
        and even then i realised that something is completely wrong with the official CFC story as the ozon hole
        in the southern hemisphere was much bigger than the ozon hole in the northern hemisphere
        though almost all ozon destroying CFC((the Hitler of 80ies,the co2 of the ozon:))
        was released in the north as the southern hemisphere had a lower population + a much much lower living standards(=much lower cfc output than in the west)

        And even today the ozon hole above the south pole is bigger than the one the north pole,
        though the south pole region is the place on earth where the lowest number of CFC was released,because there is neither industrie nor population.

        When you do your research about ozon holes you will find out that scientists no longer blame cfc((they do to a certain degree to harmonize their nowadays theories with cfc))
        but have today a much more scientifical approach.
        They now consider different effects and parameters instead going the usual primitive way= blaming all on a single super villain((=co2,cfc,assad,putin….)

        The reason is simple:
        CFC is no longer an agenda.
        It is no longer politics as those guys got what they wanted
        (getting rid of cfc)
        therefore scientists are nowadays allowed to think and say what they want therefore there are different theories and a very relaxed and reasonable way of talking about it
        instead of intimidation or namecalling.

        • gator69 says:

          Research to date on Forecasting for the Manmade Global Warming Alarm

          We then turned to the “structured analogies” method to forecast the likely outcomes of this movement. In this ongoing study, we have, to date, identified 26 historical alarmist movements. None of the forecasts for the analogous alarms proved correct. In the 25 alarms that called for government intervention, the government impost regulations in 23. None of the 23 interventions was effective and harm was caused by 20 of them.


          • arn says:

            When such guys want to save humanity than one shouldn’t be surprised that the endresult will be a world population >500 million as it is written on the georgia guidestones .
            That’s just more gooddoing than mankind can take,
            and maybe gooddoing is the only way they could get away with it with no resistance.

            Saving mankind from gooddoers & slimebags maybe humanities biggest challenge as it is impossible to kick someones butt when he is kissing yours.

        • Find “The Bozone Layer”… Eight ninths of humanity lives above the equator. The iceberg tip living in the Southern Hemisphere wish they could afford freon. The 88% in the Northern Hemisphere, forced to use inferior substitutes, never ask howcum the “hole” sits over a chlorine-spouting volcano in Antarctica. Global warming provides another politician hobgoblin to draw attention away from the one Congress used to ruin our ACs and make everyone feel hotter.

          • Jeff Jones says:

            As President Regan often said, “the 9 most terrifying words in the English language are, ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help'”.

  5. Steve Case says:

    Not everyone listened to the hype. Here’s a reply I got back from someone I know in Tampa after I had asked:

    So what’s going on with regards to you and hurricane Irma? All the stuff I read says you’re supposed to be scared witless and on you’re way out. Your [email] address says you’re still there? Just curious.

    The reply came back on Friday:

    I was at the beach since Labor Day weekend. I just came back home today. We’re supposed to be getting VERY strong winds starting tomorrow and hopefully ending by Monday afternoon…….so they say. Right now, the sun is out and people are shopping like it’s a normal day in the life of a Floridian :-)

  6. Brad says:

    The track is even wrong in real time. Satellite has the center of circulation much futher east.


  7. Jeff Jones says:

    Is it just me or is this the biggest non-disaster in the decade? Yes it was a bad storm and yes it did damage to the Caribbean isles (which EVERY Atlantic storm does), but the images of the storm in Florida don’t seem to come close to the hysterical reporting. Was watching Fox & Friends at the gym this morning and the reporter actually seemed down heartened that this storm wasn’t a killer; lamented, “There was just too much dry continental air sucked into the storm to maintain hurricane strength”. We had a squall come through Bakersfield last Sunday from a Pacific storm tail that had 50mph winds, rain drops the size of small frogs that lasted maybe half an hour that did very similar looking damage to what I have seen on TV for Florida. A lot of immature trees got blown over, debris blown out into the streets, a few shingles blown off roofs. Another Fox & Friends live report had a reporterette standing in bright sunshine, dry street behind her, her baseball cap and golden locks dead still saying there was still a huge danger of storm surges at that location. She walked past a couple 2yr old trees in the street median that were blown over (obviously had no root development, the vast majority of trees were still upright) and she went to the sea wall predicting dire future. The ocean was exactly where you would expect it to be on the sea wall and there were no breakers smashing into it. I would have no problem with my 9yr old grandson jumping into that water and paddling around.

    I guess I am just too cynical in my old age.

    • Rob says:

      I am sure many in the media and in the weather/climate field as well as a lot of crazies on the left are upset it didn’t turn out to be the doom and gloom storm they were hyping it to be since it blew a hole in their “it’s the end of south Florida because of global warming” BS narrative.

      The funny thing is how they keep changing the storm narrative. When it was clear the wind wasn’t anywhere as strong as they were predicting, they brushed that aside and said it was the storm surge that was key although they still tried to act like 60-80mph winds were something humanity has never seen before. Now that it turns out the storm surge wasn’t what they were predicting, they’re pushing how many people are without power and how long it may take to replace what was apparently an aging or poorly set up grid. This is what my buddy predicted they would move to if the storm surge didn’t turn out to be as predicted. Supposedly there were no reported deaths from the storm yesterday so they didn’t even have that to try and latch onto.

      I expect these same people who were saying Irma was going to be a monster because of global warming will now say it wasn’t a monster because of global warming.

      They will keep doubling down on all this instead of accepting they were wrong. It’s both amusing and a bit depressing (also very frustrating) to see but this is how cultists and zealots act when reality smacks them in the face and they can’t accept their beliefs are wrong.

      • gator69 says:

        … what was apparently an aging or poorly set up grid.

        It amazes me that in this day and age, we still string wires between poles. When I built my home, I paid the extra to have my electric line buried from the road to the house, knowing that the odds of ever having to pay to repair that portion of the line would be slim. Since then I have lost power many times from wind, ice, and even a truck that took out the pole by the road, but never on my property.

        There is a city about an hour away from me that decided to bury all of its utilities, and when the rest of the region has gone dark during storms (sometimes for over a week), this city never loses power. Considering all the benefits derived from getting rid of dangerous eye sores that put our grid at risk, for the life of me I just do not get why we do not upgrade to a modern and efficient way of delivering power.

        • R. Shearer says:

          Yeah, there are about 6 million people in FL without power now (supposedly). One would think that at least the cities closest to the coast should have done away with low voltage power lines.

          • There are two reactors just south of Houston. Austin voted to buy a 16% share and Sanantone twice that right after the Three-Mile-Island hysteria of superstition. The reactors never felt the hurricane, though some trees knocked down power lines. Folks in Florida only wish they had a couple of hurricane-proof reactors to generate them some electric power.

        • Jeff Jones says:

          If you live in a rich enough neighborhood, you can get your buddies in government to bury the power lines so your view is pristine which just happens to be the best case scenario in a hurricane.

        • Colorado Wellington says:

          Costs. It depends on location but it is roughly an order of magnitude more expensive to bury the lines. Then there is a longevity problem and demands on insulation. A failed underground line is also (roughly) ten times more expensive to find and repair.

          • Gator says:

            Even when it is not a cost prohibitive venture, they still string wires from poles. Again, an entire city near me went underground 20 years ago, and they are saving money now.

          • Colorado Wellington says:

            We buried the connection from the transformer to the house like you did but the transmission lines are still coming overhead and I don’t expect them to be buried anytime soon. We live in a sparsely populated area with rocky ground and long distances for the transmission lines.

            In more densely populated cities it can make economic sense to retrofit, depending how much expensive stuff they would have to break to get it underground but regulated utilities are not the avant-garde of free market approaches.

          • Gator says:

            What I find mind boggling is seeing a new thoroughfare being built, including new gas lines, new sewer lines, new phone lines, and new fiber optic lines, all buried. Then they string wires from poles. WTF? Does the IBEW make these decisions?

          • Colorado Wellington says:

            Yep, when they are building brand new underground infrastructure is the time to strongly consider collocating the electrical lines. They will never have a better opportunity.

            I know that German cities had underground infrastructure already in the 1970s (and likely earlier as part of post-war reconstruction). All telecom wiring including cable TV—which was the domain of the highly centralized Bundespost before deregulation and privatization—was underground in the cities, and while Germans are known to do things elegantly from an engineering perspective even if the financial benefits are questionable I believe they were right about that.

      • arn says:

        If there ever is a hurricane which can move as fast as the MSM moves their narrative and goalposts when being caught with their pants down and lying
        it will be the first supersonic storm in history of mankind and kill us all.

      • CNN coverage Irma 2017 reminded me of election coverage 2016…

    • Gail Combs says:

      “…I guess I am just too cynical in my old age.”

      No you are not
      If it BLEEDS, it LEADS
      Just ask any newspaper man like those in Hubby’s family.

      No one is interested in:
      It was a nice day and many families in the area enjoyed picnics this afternoon — YAWN

      Twenty car pile up on Rt 90, 7 feared dead
      SELLS papers/TV news reports==> AND ADVERTIZING.

  8. Frank K. says:

    What is astonishing about the NOAA storm track forecast is that it was issued this morning! The storm is definitely not moving west according to the radar animations I’ve seen. What were they thinking?

    As far as the aftermath, don’t expect the MSM to accept the reality that this was NOT another Katrina (or Camille). Yes there are power outages, damage from wind gusts, flooding, and some storm surge effects, but you can bet that there will be a massive effort, as there always is after a hurricane, to get things back to normal.

    • SteveS says:

      Not sure what radar you’re looking at, but the center of the storm in radar I’ve seen is on the west coast, that center is what the track is based on. The large plume of moisture is on the northeast side of the storm over the east coast of florida. taht might be where the most rainfall and winds are, but that is not the center of the storm.

    • Frank K. says:

      You may be right SteveS. From the morning radar images, it looked like most of the moisture was concentrated on the northeast side and rain bands were moving into GA, SC. It could be that the center of the (now) low pressure system is moving northwest (need to check latest pressure map).

  9. gator69 says:

    Just got off the phone with my mother who lives between Ocala and Gainesville. She never lost power. Her house ended up being a local shelter (dad always overbuilt, and mom has a whole house generator), as some of her neighbors felt their homes were more at risk. On mom’s 20 acres of woods, not one tree was lost, just some limbs down.

    My uncle and cousins in Tampa are all fine, no damage there either, though they lost power. But this is not a problem as they all have generators.

    For most of Florida, this was just another rainy day

  10. Latitude says:

    Something ain’t jiving here….
    We’ve had at least a dozen hurricanes…a lot weaker….further away….that have done a hell of a lot more damage than this one.
    The only thing I can figure out is the eye must have been very small = stronger…and the hurricane wind field very small….everyone in Key West is even saying they got a whole lot less damage than they had figured.
    Water, elec, and cell service is out south of Islamorada.

    • SteveS says:

      NOAA has a 10 day goes 16 Irma video. Clearly one can see that passing the BVI,
      the storm is impressive, and the damage was impressive. You can see it slowly degrade after interacting with both puerto rico and Cuba, and once again during the northward turn. The storm that hit the Keys and Florida was much less organized then when it hit BVI.


      • shempus says:

        it was a hard hit on those islands. but the AGW types and their media had everyone frightened that it was bck up to CAT 5 on approach to FL. Sure didn’t look like it was all that dangerous after all (again).

        • SteveS says:

          Watching the video, you can clearly see the storm much disorganized after the cuba brush…I understand that it was anticipated that Irma moving away from cuba, would have a chance to restrengthen over the warmer straights of florida. That was I think a reasonable assumption, but the anticipated large sweeping turn became an abrupt halt and 90 degree turn. I think this abrupt turn further disorganized Irma and she never recovered from that.
          Don’t listen much to fear mongers or MSM…NWS and NHC are for the most part, your only bastion left for straight up honest info….peoples lives depend on them.
          I’m sure they wished they had a good enough handle on Irma to be dead nuts on, but that is easier said than done.

  11. D. Self says:

    They are calling landfall for Irma at The Florida keys. I didn’t know the keys were considered coastline.

  12. Buck Turgidson says:

    Of course we are entering this phase of all these superstorms getting stronger and more frequent like Michael Fradenheimer at Princeton and the other shamans have warned us about — the oceans are boiling and it’s getting warmer everywhere. This is so obvious:


  13. Psalmon says:

    I have elderly neighbors who are like family to me. They have a winter house in Naples FL, and were fretting the 10-15 FOOT storm surge forecast with 100+mph winds. I told them I’d keep an eye on it and found the level of HYPE and FAKERY not only shocking but also disturbing.

    I reported to them data from Key West and Vaca Key showed no surge and no WIND! Irma passed 23 miles to either side, a perfect split between them and never registered over 60kt winds. Surges there were 1-2 feet. Naples got a 4-5′ surge but at the ebb side of high tide so water never got higher than 3-4 feet above normal high tide.

    IMPORTANTLY, while I was watching Naples data in real time, The Weather Channel reported that data from the NOAA site had stopped functioning. They said that we had lost data in Naples, so we don’t wind speed. Then they quickly reported 130 mph gusts and 95 mph winds at the airport. The Naples station NEVER stopped functioning and reliably reported every 6 minutes thru the storm. Further, the NOAA station never registered a gust over 72kts or sust winds over 60kts. The Naples Pier station is 2.5 miles from the airport where the TWC was reporting supposed readings from. TWC was just flat out lying to viewers. In the corner of their screen they kept these HUGE wind figures up while their reporter stood in the street (in 40-50kt winds). 130kts or even 95 would have killed him. Those are 747 landing speeds. He would have been blown DOWN the street.

    In addition, I posted all these stations’ data over the weekend on Twitter and aside from a few kind thankful comments (from people looking for REAL info) most comments were about how insensitive and hateful I was. Our society is doomed.

    Repeatedly I saw videos posted showing perfectly intact buildings even with shingles still intact accompanied by the commentary “so and so place is totally destroyed”. When I replied that I believe my own eyes and the buildings are still standing and NOT destroyed, I was called a racist, hateful, stupid…etc. IT WAS RIGHT OUT OF IDIOCRACY. One gal was so threatening towards me she got banned by Twitter, something I honestly had nothing to do with and found out later when she came back and blamed ME.

    We’re far past the point unfortunately where the media can show an image of the color black, tell us it’s white, have the masses comment on how white it is, and attack anyone who points out it’s black. Right out of The Emperor’s New Clothes. We are living in 2505, Idocracy.

    I hope Floridians enjoy their TRIPLE digit insurance premium increases caused by a “hurricane” that was a Tropical Storm. I’m now convinced that Warren Buffet somehow owns The Weather Channel. They are better marketing for him and Berkshire Hathaway than that Gecko is for Geico. Want a hurricane forecast tip? Buy BRK.A

    • gator69 says:

      Yesterday I watched a reporter across from the Mutual of Omaha building in downtown Miami, as he breathlessly explained to his anchor that the water was more than waist deep in the street and that the strong currents could sweep a person away. A few seconds later an SUV drove through the 6-8 inches of water that covered the street.


      • Psalmon says:

        The people who stayed know.

        More importantly INVESTORS know…BRK.A who owns Geico and dozens of other Property and Re insurance companies, big presence in Texas and Florida, is up almost 2% today and at the same price it was 1 month ago despite Harvey AND Irma.


        Bottom line, palm fawns in the street may make good TV, but don’t constitute destruction.

        Gawd help us if the US ever has a REAL hurricane like Camille, 1935 Labor Day, or Long Island Express…It took years to recover New England from the 1938 Hurricane (as you prob know). Can anyone imagine a disaster like that that took YEARS to rebuild and entire region? Not a neighborhood, a whole region. In the US it was kind of forgotten because of Hitler’s moves in Europe dominated the news (Germany went into Czechoslovakia Sept 1938)

        If you haven’t, see the movie Idiocracy. We aren’t far from it.

        • gator69 says:

          I have seen it, and the beginning is the funniest and yet scariest part, because it is happening…



          • Theyouk says:

            Take your pick…Salon, NYT, Facebook, The Weather Channel…they are now ALL examples of that movie vis a vis ‘climate science’ (which has electrolytes, I guess.)

          • Theyouk says:

            Clarification: I have to give credit to Ari Sarsalari at TWC (and a few others there) who seem to have stayed largely outside the AGW narrative-machine. Ari’s enjoyable because he consistently expresses his fascination with weather/Earth Sciences, and is keenly interested in sharing an understanding of basic/common weather phenomena with the viewing audience. What a concept… Plus, he’s from Wisconsin (Brookfield; I’m guessing Steve Case already knew that…)

      • Jeff Jones says:

        Reporters are some of the most ignorant (note I didn’t say stupid) people on earth. The know precious little about any story they are assigned to cover so they just fill in the blanks with what they heard in Marxist journalism school or their closely held uninformed prejudiced opinions.

    • Andy DC says:

      I must have looked at every first order NWS station in Florida, literally dozens of stations and could only find one station with sustained hurricane force winds, that was barely hurricane force, 74 mph at Ft. Myers. Lots of places in southern and central Florida near Irma’s path did not even GUST to hurricane force.

      Not much of a hurricane, but one hell of a media circus! With every alarmist moron in the world squealing like stuck pigs that it is ALL due to Trump’s unwillingness to listen to the self proclaimed “experts”.

    • David A says:

      Psalmon, I saw what you saw.
      Via storm damage, CAT 1 maybe low 2, and storm surge less then 1/2 the MIMIMUM, and ground based readings that is all that can be justified.

      • Psalmon says:

        Very good point. That’s the other key. The Weather Channel ironically has a good youtube video on category vs damage to put it in real terms and the yes the damage was Cat 1 mostly, Cat 2 in places where the eyewall passed over. But the damage tells the story.

        BTW the damage in places like St Martin and BVI where Irma passed directly over looks like Cat 4-5 damage. You have roofs de-shingled, some ripped off and walls caved in. Vegetation scouring. Where Irma passed directly over they saw 130+ mph real winds. That said, St Thomas buoys just 30 miles from the eyewall registered Florida like winds 50-70 knots on the NOAA stations. Not ONE station in Puerto Rico’s North coast had a windspeed over 55knots, which was reported in the MSM as “Puerto Rico was ravaged by Hurricane force winds all night.”

        Fundamentally Irma had winds all along it’s path that were tightly packed around the center and hurricane force stuff did not radiate far from the eyewall not on the ground at least. That was also seen in the reporters covering live footage.

    • Eha says:

      to Psalmon
      i know that feeling. people dont want truth, they seek for show.
      and newspapers give them, what they want.
      but, anyway, thank You for sharing REAL news. Yours work also brings out difference between reality and news media fakery. and there are yet people, who love truth and Your’s job also :) look at comments here… ;)

  14. Klondike Bob says:


    I doubt this inquiry belongs with this post,
    but on this anniversary of the WTC attacks
    I’m reminded of Hurricane Erin and her
    hovering off the east coast on Sept. 11, 2001

    As Hurricane Erin has become somewhat
    of a small focus for 9-11 conspiracy types
    (“Erin was part of a vast, evil power generator
    which rendered the Trade Center into
    a swirling heap of dust!”) – I would enjoy hearing your
    impartial analysis of Hurricane Erin and
    her place in the annals of history

    Thanks as always I enjoy your stats and site

  15. Dan Foss says:

    Have a little cooth!! As someone who has lived on the Space Coast of Florida for 18 years, Irma was a monster. She reached all the way across the state doing substantial damage more than a hundred miles away. Is it due to a man made climate change? No definitely not. Is the pain and suffering we are going through something to belittle? Definitely not.

  16. Rud Istvan says:

    I am in north Fort Lauderdale on the beach. I surveyed local storm damage this morning. We have uprooted palms, decapitated palms, sheared palm fronds everywhere on the ground. We have gumbo limbomtrees striped of every leaf. Across AIA we have a brand new streelight (section is nearly finished with a two year complete redo) lying broken off on the sidewalk. Half a block further up is a sheared tree that survived Cat 3 Wilma. At the intersection of A1A and Oakland Park, the nearest highway style streetlight and pole are completely down partly blocking the road, torn away from its bolted concrete footing. Our complex tower two southwest facing corner units on 7th and 10th floors are missing balcony glass panels designed to withstand 150 mph. Evidence of a tornadic vortex spun between the two buildings at just the right wind angle, SSE.
    As the eye made landfall on Marco Island, we were about 140 miles away on the dirty NE quadrant. What was just decribed is typical Cat 2 damage. We also know about Cat 3, because in 2005 lived through a direct eyewall hit from Wilma.
    Did NHC and NOAA forecast the track well? No. But based on the physical damage evidence personally witnessed today, there is no reason to doubt the hurricane category ratings.
    Too much skepticism is almost as bad as not enough.

    • Jeff Jones says:

      No one claimed tropical storms don’t do damage. The problem comes when you claim EVERY storm is the worst in history and EVERY storm is caused my the culture of the USA.

    • Andy DC says:

      There are tornadoes in the rain bands that can do quite a bit of damage, even far from the hurricane’s core. But just because there was tornado produced damage doesn’t mean that the hurricane itself is a CAT 3. You get deadly tornadoes even with minimal tropical systems.

      • David A says:

        Rud, you have some hurdles to clear…
        The storm surge from the keys all the way up the west coast was, at best, 1/2 the MINIMUM predicted.

        Hundreds of ground based instruments showed at best Cat 1 sustained winds, maybe some Cat 2
        (Show me different for your area)

        The damage in those areas like Naples appears to reflect Cat 1 damage at best. Worst I see is some 60 year old mobile homes with some roofs damaged, carports ripped off etc. (Every other Major hurricanes to hit Florida, even ones with much smaller wind fields, left those older mobile home parks looking like a tornado went through) Comparative damage and storm surge is not remotely close despite the larger wind field of Irma.

        Besides the tornadoes, and almost tornadoes that occur in the strong rotating outer bands that Andy DC mentions, you are in a 24 story high rise, likely surrounded by other high rises. This would certainly both increase and decrease wind speeds around such buildings.

        It was a large wind field and your area had stronger winds then the central rotation ON the Florida ground based maps. I watched both in real time. Your outer bands stayed organized, spinning off thunderstorms, lightning and mini tornadoes, lacking in the disorganized disintegrating eye.

        Please have a conversation, instead of insults, as what I wrote above is true to the best of my understanding

        • David A says:

          Also consider three major factor in storm surge. 1. wind speed, two size of wind field, three speed of hurricane forward motion.
          Irma was a very large wind field with slow travel, and still all up the west coast produced Cat 1 to at most Cat 2 surge.

    • Gail Combs says:

      Rud, they also were reporting tornadoes. Could that explain some of the severe damage?

      • Rud Istvan says:

        Gail, Yes sort of. The building glass damaage was a building generated vortex based on wind angle. We watched it generate over about half an hour, as our unit is directly across but recessed in an ‘alcove’ given building curvature. Not a dopper tornado, although we also did have several of those confirmed in the general area. We had the same building generatd vortex only with worse structural damage with Wilma.
        The rest, no. I was here living it real time the whole time. If we had had a local tornado, my unit damage (none) and the local tree damage would have been much worse. We have all the classical landscape damage definitions for Cat 2 winds. Period.
        Some of the commenters here say they monitored this or that, but they evidence little understanding of how these storms actually work. My late father was command officer of the 409th typhoon chasers from 1948-51 (when he got reassigned to Tokyo to bomb North Korea). Converted bombay B-29s off Guam, after the Army Air Force sent him to UCLA for a double masters in electronics (weather radar) and meteorology. Been learning tropical storms since knee high at the dinner table.
        There are four key factors that interplay. 1. How organized is the circulation (including periodic eye wall replacement cycles). Irma got a bit disrupted by the Cuba brush. 2. How big is the eyewall? (The figure skater effect, physical law of conservation of angular momentum.) Irma was big, meaning less storm surge results. 3. Surrounding atmospheric humidity and wind shear. As Irma approached the Keys, she had unfavorable wind shear and dryer air in the SW quadrant. Is obvious in all the doppler radar images from Homestead. 4. Where are you relative to the eye? In the NH, the dirty quadrant is always the NE, where we were relative to the eye at Marco Island landfall. Tampa got lucky, they ended on the ‘clean’ SW quadrant even though much closer to the eye.
        This last is further illustrated by this posts misundertanding of Irma’s track. The track is around the center of circulation, by definition. That is indeed tracking NW as the NOAA cone shows. The enormous spread of rain and wind up through Atlanta and Charleston SC far tomits right is the huge TS field on the remaining dirty side. To think otherwise displays ignorance of cyclone definitions and dynamics. I have no tolerance for ignorance when it is so easy to educate oneself these days. So if David A’s knickers are in a twist, GOOD. Intended.

        • Latitude says:

          You didn’t go to the cabin!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
          I’ve been looking for you everywhere, I thought for sure you guys hit the road

        • SteveS says:

          Rud, looking at Virginia Key Noaa station south of you near Miami, Max sustained winds 53 MPH.
          Looking north of you, Lake Worth Pier, max sustained winds 62 MPH.
          These aren’t even hurricane force winds.

          Your sandwiched in between both locations, and your damage assessment calls it category 2.

          These are official NOAA stations, something just doesn’t add up.

          I can certainly see isolated gusts doing more damage locally than a region as a whole receives, but no one would call this a category 2 storm on the east coast of florida with those kinds of wind speeds.

          Do you know of any local verified wind speeds that even come close to a category 2 in your area ?

        • David A says:

          I said, “Please have a conversation, instead of insults,(referring to your comments on a different blog saying such skepticism was as bad as the alarmists) as what I wrote above is true to the best of my understanding.”

          Rud says, ” I have no tolerance for ignorance when it is so easy to educate oneself these days. So if David A’s knickers are in a twist, GOOD. Intended.

          Strange and unexpected arrogance from you. ( Your ebook is excellent as are most of your comments BTW)

          Your lecture on the NE quadrant was rudimentary and in my post. I talked about how those bands of rotating thunder storms and mini tornadoes went right through your area, and your ground based tropical force winds with ground based Cat 1 gusts were about as strong at what was happening on the ground around the COLLAPSED eye wall. ( Sometime look at a satellite only image of the already disintegrating eye, prior to coming onshore, and watch it completely collapse going into Naples, like a last gasp propagating outwards. Really amazing)
          Yes, the Naples reporter was in the west quadrant. Cantore was in the North quadrant ( St Myers I think) as the eye wall came through. They were experiencing Cat 1 winds at best. The palm fronds on the ground around Cantore never blew away! Now Rud, you can show me ground based Cat 4 or Cat 3 sustained winds, and I will not argue.

          I expressed to you that as you were in the area of high rise buildings different dynamic could strengthen and weaken the winds experienced. You admitted this to Gail, yet earlier you used it as eveidence of much stronger winds then ANY of the ground based stations all around you reported.

          Your reference to a tree falling that survived Wilma carries little evidence. I lived in a Pine forest for a number of years. 150 year old Pine trees fell in every storm, after surviving far larger storms in the past.

          You tried to educate me on storm surge, something counter intuitive about a large wind field causing a smaller surge? Here I thought a slower moving storm with stronger winds over a larger area, along with favorable shore line and ocean floor topography produced a larger surge. At any rate don’t argue with the ignorant guy. Argue with the professionals who predicted a 10′ to 15′ surge along the entire shore below and above Naples, and only got a 4.2 foot surge, less then 1/2 of the predicted MINIMUM. Same thing in the Keys. (You never addressed this. The surge was accurate to the ground based readings you want all of us to ignore.

          The damage was also reflective of the ground based readings. In every other major hurricane to hit Florida older Mobil home parks look like a tornado went through. With Irma you have car ports ripped off and some roofs ripped open.

          Storm Surge, overall damage (1/4 at most of estimated or predicted) ground based wind speed records, none of them support a Cat 4 or even of a Cat 3 land fall. Find the ground based reading that say otherwise, or explain why the surge was so small, the damage only 1/4 of predicted, and the ground based readings so low. It is called a conversation, not a pedantic lecture. “Fool argue, wise men discuss”

        • Gail Combs says:

          Yes, Cat 2 was what I was hearing Irma was after land fall. The islands including Cuba and the Keys took a major toll out of Irma before she hit mainland Florida.

          On the other hand the massive extent and lack of recent bad storms for several years left a he!! of a mess that no gasoline is making much worse.

          No gasoline means local civilian crews can not get the roads cleared. No fuel for trucks or chain saws. Irma’s Aftermath – A Ground Report… from Sundance in Southern Florida who is part of a civilian crew.

          This is a comment from a local northern Florida cop.

          DeWalt says:
          “Here in North Florida, I-75 runs thru our county, we had the experience of the entire South Florida come right thru us starting three days ahead of the storm. Being in law enforcement I was neck deep in alligators and my poor wife had to fight the herd of temporary visitors for any scraps left at the stores.

          Gas? Forget it. All our stations sold out Friday morning as we watched the escorted fuel trucks head south.

          Now today. Grocery stores empty, no power, no gas, and I’ve worked so many hours I don’t know what day it is. The eye of the storm passed thru our county. Roads unpassable from trees and debris, lots of people we have to try and get to that live on roads not even on our maps. Clearing trees every quarter mile to get to anyone. AND NOW THE HERD OF VISITORS ARE COMMING BACK.

  17. David A says:

    …every damaged roof I see is old mobile homes or flat metal roofs, perhaps leaning more into only CAT 1 damage.

  18. Eric Simpson says:

    We got 24mph winds today in Big Bear. Here that’s not called a hurricane. It’s called a breeze.

  19. Gail Combs says:

    From Beverly @ the tree house. She lived in S.Carolina low country and agrees with Tony, way over hyped.

    “[…]This website gives the Expected Damage Levels from each hurricane Category. Fascinating stuff, and you can read this and make your own estimate. https://weather.thefuntimesguide.com/hurricane_categories/

  20. slp says:

    My weather station in Lakeland, directly in the path of the storm, recorded a maximum gust of 51 MPH.

  21. FTOP_T says:

    I live just Northwest of Tampa, maybe 30 miles from the city center. The forecast track for where the center was hitting Florida was twice the size of the state.

    With constant data feeds, rigorous modeling, and 24×7 data analytics, the forecasters couldn’t reduce the uncertainty even six hours ahead.

    There also seemed to be an inherent “stubbornness” in the forecast modeling where certain models just couldn’t recognize their results were erroneous.

    At one point the storm was near Arcadia FL (inland) and a model track had the center over water and starting in a place southwest of the center where it had never passed.

    The technology we have today saved lives, but to think we can model temperature in 2050 based on 6,000 thermometers and a computer model is absurd. Any scientist that claims they can is a charlatan.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.