Plummeting October 15 Temperatures In The US

October 15 used to be a warm day in the US, but temperatures have plummeted over the past century.

The percent of the US over 80 degrees plummeted during the 1970s.

On this date in 1938, much of the Midwest was over 90 degrees.

Same story in 1963, with 80 degree weather well up into New England.

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14 Responses to Plummeting October 15 Temperatures In The US

  1. spangled drongo says:

    Tony, in Australia we are very saddened to hear about the Cal fires and of course the bleaters here are all blaming CAGW.

    I was wondering if you could tell us what the temperatures and dry periods have been leading up to the fires as compared to past temps and droughts?

    • tonyheller says:

      The fires are largely due to the record wet winter last year, which caused a lot vegetation to grow. California summers are always hot and dry away from the coast.

      • Colorado Wellington says:

        The same is true in Colorado and other western states.

        Newcomers see the green slopes and plains after a spring or summer wet spell and say, this is great, there won’t be any wildfires this year. They don’t understand yet—though the thinking ones get it quickly—that the moisture drives seasonal growth of ground cover vegetation that later becomes fuel for grass fires and ladder fuel for forest fires. It only takes a few weeks hot weeks without rain as is normal in this arid climate for the green stuff to turn brown and be ready to burn.

        • Colorado Wellington says:

          Errata: a few hot weeks

        • RAH says:

          It’s really not hard to figure out. California’s “permadrought” was ended by drought busting precipitation.
          That precipitation resulted in a burst of growth in vegetation.
          That vegetation dried out as it does in the late summer and fall.
          Fires were started by ignition sources, either man made or natural.
          Fall winds, which aren’t unusual at all, are driving those fires making them difficult or impossible to contain.
          The roots of the burned vegetation will die and the web of support they provide for the soil on the slopes will be degraded making the steeper areas susceptible to slides when the next heavy and persistent rains come.

          It’s a natural (with the exception of human caused ignition) cycle that will go on and on despite the best of mans efforts to stop it.

          • Colorado Wellington says:

            The other unnatural part is a century of wildfire suppression. The wildland firefighters can’t stop the fire under unfavorable conditions like high wind, inaccessible terrain and such, but they successfully stopped many other fires. Without man’s intervention, these “lesser” fires would have burned themselves out and eliminated a lot of ground fuel accumulation. With the West being populated the way it is we don’t have the option of letting all fires continue but fire suppression is big part of the equation.

      • spangled drongo says:

        Thanks, Tony. Yes, that’s so true. Droughts disperse fuel load, wet seasons increase and concentrate it. I maintain a couple of miles of fire trails with my own gear to protect about 40 neighbours but it’s a job nobody wants anymore.

        Consequently more and bigger fires.

  2. Reasonable Skeptic says:

    This is a good point. If scientists rely on the (most likely poor) data to build upon, their work becomes flawed as well.

  3. Andy DC says:

    Today is the 63rd anniversary of the great Hurricane Hazel on 10/15/54 that hit NC as a CAT 4 and caused death and destruction, with hurricane force winds all the way up to Ontario, where there were over 80 deaths. In DC, winds reached 98 mph.

    That was after Hazel had killed hundreds in Haiti.

    During that same 1954 hurricane season, major Hurricane Carol was as bad if not worse than the 1938 hurricane in places like Boston and Providence. At the time, it was the worst storm on record in terms of property damage.

    Eleven days later Hurricane Edna hit New England as a strong CAT 2.

    Imagine if three very strong hurricanes today hit the populated cities of the NE during the same season? Could you even begin to imagine the crazed shrieking of today’s alarmists, if they had existed back then?

  4. mba says:

    Hi tonyheller, How do you get the data for those graphs? Especially the first one.
    Did you look at the trend for the other 364 days of the year?

  5. jgerard says:

    Where is this data from?

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