US To Run Out Of Oil By 1992

Sad news – the US will run out of oil by 1992, and the world will run out of oil between 2012  and 2022.

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists – Google Books

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10 Responses to US To Run Out Of Oil By 1992

  1. Gator says:

    History of ‘Peak Oil’

    (http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/5oilreservehistory.html)

    • 1857 — Romania produces 2,000 barrels of oil, marking the beginning of the modern oil industry.

    • 1859, Aug. 25 — Edwin L. Drake strikes oil in Titusville, Pennsylvania

    • 1862 — First commercial oil production in Canada, also 1863 in Russia.

    • 1862 — Most widely used lamp fuel (camphene) taxed in US at aprox. $1 a gallon; kerosene taxed at 10 cent per gallon.(Kovarik, 1997)

    • 1863 — John D. Rockefeller starts the Excelsior Refinery in Cleveland, Ohio.

    • 1879 — US Geological Survey formed in part because of fear of oil shortages.

    • 1882 — Institute of Mining Engineers estimates 95 million barrels of oil remain.With 25 million barrels per year output, “Some day the cheque will come back indorsed no funds, and we are approaching that day very fast,” Samuel Wrigley says. (Pratt, p. 124).

    • 1901 — Spindletop gusher in Texas floods US oil market.

    • 1906 — Fears of an oil shortage are confirmed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Representatives of the Detroit Board of Commerce attended hearings in Washington and told a Senate hearing that car manufacturers worried “not so much [about] cost as … supply.”

    • 1919, Scientific American notes that the auto industry could no longer ignore the fact that only 20 years worth of U.S. oil was left. “The burden falls upon the engine. It must adapt itself to less volatile fuel, and it must be made to burn the fuel with less waste…. Automotive engineers must turn their thoughts away from questions of speed and weight… and comfort and endurance, to avert what … will turn out to be a calamity, seriously disorganizing an indispensable system of transportation.”

    • 1920 — David White, chief geologist of USGS, estimates total oil remaining in the US at 6.7 billion barrels. “In making this estimate, which included both proved reserves and resources still remaining to be discovered, White conceded that it might well be in error by as much as 25 percent.” (Pratt, p. 125. Emphasis added).

    • 1925 — US Commerce Dept. says that while U.S. oil production doubled between 1914 and 1921, it did not kept pace with fuel demand as the number of cars increased.

    • 1928 — US analyst Ludwell Denny in his book “We Fight for Oil” noted the domestic oil shortage and says international diplomacy had failed to secure any reliable foreign sources of oil for the United States. Fear of oil shortages would become the most important factor in international relations, even so great as to force the U.S. into war with Great Britain to secure access to oil in the Persian Gulf region, Denny said.

    • 1926 — Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 4.5 billion barrels remain.

    • 1930 — Some 25 million American cars are on the road, up from 3 million in 1918.

    • 1932 — Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 10 billion barrels of oil remain.

    • 1944 — Petroleum Administrator for War estimates 20 billion barrels of oil remain.

    • 1950 — American Petroleum Institute says world oil reserves are at 100 billion barrels. (See Jean Laherre, Forecast of oil and gas supply)

    • 1956 — M.King Hubbard predicts peak in US oil production by 1970.

    • 1966 – 1977 — 19 billion barrels added to US reserves, most of which was from fields discovered before 1966. (As M.A. Adelman notes: “These fields were no gift of nature. They were a growth of knowledge, paid for by heavy investment.”)

    • 1973 — Oil price spike; supply restrictions due to Middle Eastern politics.

    • 1978 — Petroleos de Venezuela announces estimated unconventional oil reserve figure for Orinoco heavy oil belt at between three and four trillion barrels. (More recent public estimates are in the one trillion range).

    • 1979 — Oil price spike; supply restrictions due to Middle Eastern politics.

    • 1980 — Remaining proven oil reserves put at 648 billion barrels

    • 1993 — Remaining proven oil reserves put at 999 billion barrels

    • 2000 — Remaining proven oil reserves put at 1016 billion barrels.

    • 2005 — Oil price spike; supply restrictions and heavy new demand

    • 2008 — Oil price spike; supply restrictions and heavy new demand, global economies collapse when oil reaches over $140 USD/bbl.

    Oil reserves have declined from 95 million barrels in 1882, to well over a trillion barrels in 2011. We will probably run out in a few centuries at the rate we are consuming the oil. A simple solution for high efficient vehicles is already available – as soon as someone figures out how to install air conditioning and all wheel drive on a motorcycle…. No, it is not an error in numbers or statement – just a little sarcasm.

    It’s time to shoot the messenger(s).

    • Colorado Wellington says:

      No, trust progress! We are there already. Who needs air-conditioning on all-wheel-drive bikes? Everyone knows that global warming causes cold weather.

      https://electrek.co/2018/04/30/all-wheel-drive-electric-bicycles

      • R Shearer says:

        I want one but not for that price. Does this quality for the $7000 federal electric vehicle tax credit? I guess it does if they don’t disallow it on your return.

        Did you see all of the bikes out today? Still, fewer than 1% of commuters. I’ve been riding my bike to the bus stop most days, at least when the weather cooperates.

      • Chris says:

        I guess the term “All Wheel” is accurate. But it really screams marketing hype when the reality is more “Both Wheel Drive”

    • arn says:

      Peak Oil – the real climate change.
      So global.
      So many failed predictions.
      Still an effective threat and absolute truth.

  2. MGJ says:

    Absent ignoramus politicians skewing the incentives and oil will never run out.

    As it becomes scarcer, the price goes up.
    As the price goes up, the incentive to find more goes up.
    As the price goes up, the incentive to find an alternative increases.
    As the price goes up, the incentive to use less increases.
    etc.

    ….until the rewards for finding a solution become overwhelming, or even ‘green’ energy becomes economic.

    But the reality of course will be that politicians fix a ‘fair’ price, so it will run out and we’ll all be shafted.

  3. R Shearer says:

    I ran out of gasoline once in the 1980’s and again once in the 2000’s.

  4. chris says:

    If Abiogenic Petroleum is a thing, we may never run out. And may answer why we keep finding huge deposits.

  5. KevinPaul says:

    The sky has always been falling, it’s a sensational human thing.
    Portents of Dr Doom and Prof Gloom always ensure high paper sales.
    It’s terrific for big-Pharma’s antidepressant sales too, 15 billion US$ per year and rising rapidly. Ironically they’re now linked to increased risk of dementia.
    It’s all turning to custard.

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