“We Can’t Say For Certain”

The BBC says we are having a climate emergency caused by the burning of fossil fuels and indicated by a heatwave in the Pacific Northwest.

They also say that people are being kept alive by air conditioning – which is being powered by fossil fuels.

Canada weather: Heatwave hits record 46.6C as US north-west also frazzles – BBC News

During past heatwaves, people didn’t have the option of air conditioning and they died from heat prostration or suicide.

The 1911 Heat Wave Was So Deadly It Drove People Insane – New England Historical Society

En 1911, Paris suffoquait déjà sous la canicule – Le Parisien

This week in 1901, New York was shut down by the heat.

Later in 1901, the heatwave expanded to Europe

THE HEAT WAVE IN EUROPE.; Numerous Deaths in London — Effects of Drought Serious — No Signs of a Change in England.

And continued into August.

UNPRECEDENTED HEAT IN ITALY.; Vineyards Shriveled Up — People Forced to Sleep in the Open Air.

A ten day heatwave in 1896 killed more than 1,000 people in New York.

1896 Heatwave

Australia had their worst heatwaves on record during January of 1896.

TimesMachine: August 18, 1896

 

23 Jan 1896 – THE HEAT WAVE. – Trove

18 Jul 1896 – Great Heat in Europe. – Trove

17 Jul 1896 – HEAT-WAVE IN EUROPE.

28 May 1896, 4 – Ironton County Register at Newspapers.com

National Geographic reported that Alaska’s largest glacier retreated 40 miles by 1896.

The National Geographic Archive | April 1896 | page 1

127-Degree Heat in Zaragoza. – The New York Times

08 Jan 1906 – THE HEAT WAVE – Trove

08 Jan 1906 – EXTENSIVE HEAT WAVE. – Trove

13 Aug 1859, 2 – Pointe Coupee Democrat at Newspapers.com

18 Jul 1852, 7 – The Observer at Newspapers.com

21 Aug 1901, Page 3 – Shelby County Herald at Newspapers.com

03 Jul 1913, Page 2 – The Logan Republican at Newspapers.com

mwr-050-01-0010.pdf

17 Jan 1857 – BLACK THURSDAY. – Trove

The reality is that heatwaves are declining in the US, and deaths are way down due to fossil fuels.

 

Temperature Changes in the United States – Climate Science Special Report

The claim from the BBC is based on misinformation, appeals to authority and speculation based on superstition. It is not journalism, it isn’t science and it is very dangerous.

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16 Responses to “We Can’t Say For Certain”

  1. G W Smith says:

    The dems have no shame for their distortion of reality to frighten the masses and gain political control.

  2. I just now checked the jet stream map and exactly as I expected there’s a great big jet stream loop up from the Mexican desert funneling hot air north.

    It’s a classic pattern which occurs during the 11 year cyclic solar minimums, which we’re again in. Low solar activity leads to wavy jet streams and blocking events, like the 2010 Great Moscow Heatwave during the last solar minimum.

    If Harrabin is squawking about global warming how is it these patterns happen each 11 years? Does CO2 go to sleep for 10 years then suddenly wake up and say “time for a heatwave”?

  3. Eric Hatfield says:

    The fact there were remarkable heat waves in the past does not lessen the remarkable nature of the present heat wave in the Pacific Northwest. I live in Wenatchee, WA (in the center of the state) and what we’re seeing is more typical of the Mojave Desert of Southern CA and Arizona.

    We’ve seen not only daily records fall, but also all-time records. Seattle and Portland set another record today. A city in BC, Canada set Canada’s all-time record yesterday and that record is threatened today. Even coastal towns like Forks have been near 110F. At least the natural ‘air conditioning’ system has kicked in to give relief to the immediate coast. The focus will shift to Eastern Washington tomorrow (Tuesday) when the all time state record of 118F will likely fall. I just heard on the local news two sites hit it today. I saw a 117F at The Dalles, OR which is along the Columbia River.

    Make no mistake, this would be an extreme event regardless of whether we’re in the Little Ice Age or the Climatic Optimum.

    • Jim says:

      I’d be suspicious of the temperature readings your getting from the press and government. If they are willing to lie about historical temperature data, why not lie about current temperature data.

      • Eric Hatfield says:

        Jim (and Michael), I’m living in the middle of this in Wenatchee (OK East Wenatchee). I’m a retired weatherman and have been in a some very hot weather. I spent 2 weeks in Yuma in August and it wasn’t this hot.

        I’ve developed rules of thumb for forecasting high temperatures that work very well. I understand what temperatures a given air mass is capable of. The closest representative soundings are out of Spokane some distance away to the east. Given the situation yesterday afternoon I have every reason to think the low levels of the atmosphere over most of Eastern Washington (say up to 850mb) were at least as hot as they were over Spokane. Given Spokane’s 00Z sounding from yesterday I have no reason to doubt the authenticity of high temperatures for lower elevation sites of 114-118F range. An isolated 120F was not out of the realm of possibility. A 5970 meter 500mb high near El Paso during late June with sunny skies is a virtual guarantee of 110F high days there. Most of Eastern Washington is 3000 feet lower in elevation. You honestly think 115-120 is a problem with that strong of a 500mb high over our area? What’s worse is if those conditions could linger a couple more days it would get even hotter. Fortunately that 500mb high is weakening and shifting east.

        Michael, I recognize that most weather stations are contaminated by the urban heat island some more than others. Until climatologists properly define and extract out the generally increasing urban heat island effect on temperatures, any of their claims of warming climate is frankly bogus. OTOH you will have to prove that the thermometers at these sites were on roofs or near asphalt etc.

        I’m actually surprised the Weather Channel hasn’t been covering this non-stop. A wimpy tropical storm got more coverage yesterday (granted it was pretty close to Atlanta). The coverage the previous day when Seattle and Portland were baking barely got a passing mention. They’re giving the 95-100F high temperatures over New England (albeit with higher dew points than ours) far more coverage than our record shattering heat wave.

        This is an extreme event thanks to favorable conditions (for heat) that came together for it to happen in the Pacific Northwest. This could have happened over the northern plains and if it had, they’d be having 110-120F maybe higher temps there too.

        Don’t be afraid to recognize remarkable events. The nation had another one in February if you recall that shattered many record lows. Those things happen in both directions.

        Let’s also recognize that recorded temperatures are in reality a recent feature. There’s no reason why this can’t be a once in a century event.

        • Eric Hatfield says:

          I wish to clarify something in my post above due to the delay in its posting.

          The ‘yesterday’ referred to is Tuesday June 28 and the 29 June 00Z sounding from Spokane, not Wednesday June 29 and the 1 July 00Z sounding from Spokane.

    • Michael Peinsipp says:

      And those temps are taken from HOT sites – roofs, next to asphalt, etc. A proper temp is taken in the woods (shade) away from Heat sources.

  4. Peter Carroll says:

    A simple rule of thumb regarding CC articles. If it’s from the BBC, it’s BS.
    This pile of utter drivel from Roger Harrabin, is no exception.

  5. Wins Triumphs Godel says:

    You better respond to the big story all on google and Bing about heat wave 50 degrees above normal. I would like to see where it is 150 degrees though. I think a good post showing this years ice thickness in the North and South ice caps would be really good. Those are the best posts.

  6. Wins Triumphs Godel says:
  7. MGJ says:

    Whatever ones views may be on the subject, it really isn’t difficult to parse the Harrabin article and to see that it contains no science and no analysis. No doubt it is intended to scare the gullible and the neurotic, but beyond that, it looks as though he had a deadline to generate a few hundred words so just trotted out some banal nonsense. Any editor worthy of the name would have sent it back and told him to do some actual journalism.

    People’s ability to set aside their own views and take a top level look at what the writing says and to assess its value seems to have been destroyed by terrible state education that punishes people for thinking.

  8. Ulric Lyons says:

    The brief Saharan hot plumes of summer 2019 in Europe were completely dependent on negative North Atlantic Oscillation conditions typical of a centennial solar minimum. So predictably there were similar hot Saharan plumes during the last centennial minimum in the late 1800’s. I commented on this on a Copernicus ECMWF post on LinkedIn with supporting data, and they actually “liked” the comment.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetdl1772on.dat

  9. arn says:

    I can say for certain that such “brutal” heatstorms(2 idiotic terms = 1 new indoctrination fearporn)
    are the most normal thing that is repeating for 1000s of years.

    The only thing that is changing with the increase of co2 is how slimey propagandist are selling off the mill events that have been happening for thousands(and probably millions of years) as sensations.
    Every cyclical extreme is now being sold as sensation and precursor of apocalypse.
    (and on a planet with half a million square miles one will ALWAYS find
    many weather extremes within a period of 35 years)

    Meanwhile in the real world:
    The arctic ice did not disappear.
    Manhattan and the Maledives are not under water.
    The number of polar bears went up by more than 20% since Al Gore said they will go extinct.
    Rich AGW propagandists are still buying beach properties.
    The number of big hurricanes went down instead of increasing.
    The “sea” levels of the big lakes did not drop.

    There is not a single event that can compete
    with the famine of ethiopia of the 80ies
    or the commie-famines.
    Not a single event that comes close to the dust bowl.
    The only real increase is a result of better global weather coverage as result
    of satellites and technological improvement.
    The rest is just part of the club of rome/agenda 21 and the road to global governance.

    The best thing they have so far are the australian wildfires(which were not the biggest in history)
    which were in fact man made
    as almost 200 arsonists got caught during those fires(= typical Alinsky terrori…rules for redicals to reach the wanted results)
    Otherwise those fires would have never turned so big.

    If climate would have changed only 5% of how much climate scientists have changed since AGW has become the honey pot for parasites we would be in real trouble.

  10. Conrad Ziefle says:

    “Researchers say that the increased CO2 made this 100 times more likely” – than what? So they ran a bunch of Monte Carlo Simulations and varied a bunch of stuff and somehow the model showed this event was 100 times more likely than when they ran the model with lower CO2. The only question I have is: Have their models been right about anything more than 50% of the time? My coin flip method is right 50% of the time.

  11. Andy W says:

    I don’t think quoting newspaper articles to rebut a news organisation is the best way forward. Science would be better.

    There are more newspaper articles from the past on here. I get the feeling you have capitulated fighting the scientists and now prefer to fight the media.

    Regards

    Andy

  12. David Scott says:

    Concerning higher CO2 levels: Anyone noticed that all plants are growing faster? Reports are out that farmers are getting 15-20% better crop yields and they are assuming it is due to better fertilizer even though those chemicals have not changed. Then, recently, I read an article where folks were trying to blame an evasive plant species that was having success in destroying native plants, because the CO2 levels were higher therefore giving the invasive plant more growing power. Are we all so stupid not to realize that a higher CO2 level would give ALL plant life more “food”? If the atmosphere is 78% nitrogen and 18% O2, that leaves 4% for all other gases. If CO2 is up, plants would have an easier time ingesting it? Just my thinking on this…why do we always assume that higher levels of something is bad? If indeed the Earth was warmer, then we point out the poor polar bears. But what about all the bird species that can now GAIN environment to live in? And plants that can grow farther North. I KNOW that the Earth is not overall getting warmer, my point it that we always assume it is bad when the media only points out the negative instead of the positive!

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