Last year, Arctic temperatures dropped below normal in Mid-May and stayed below normal through the summer. This ruined Reggie’s summer. It looks like we may have a repeat in the works.
COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
Climate quackery is the “cold fusion” of our day. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pathological_science
Reblogged this on Climate Ponderings.
It might be too early to say because the temperatures have been below average just for a few days until now (after being above average during most of the time before). But the temperatures will be surely below average during the summer months again. This also disproves warming being the main cause of melting ice in the summer, while wind speed and direction is the leading factor when it comes to sea ice melting during spring and summer (and it also disproves the “positive feedback” mechanism of arctic warming).
“… But the temperatures will be surely below average during the summer months again …”
Because of the winds?
The good position of MYI this year seems to be favoring lower than average SST in the N. Atlantic coast of Canada,
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
which can be thought as a positive feedback for cooling.
A similar strong negative anomaly has developed also in the west coast of Russia.
In this case, as usual, Nature would be doing exactly the opposite of what the warmists proclaim.
Reggie’s in the basement
Mixing up the medicine …
I just attended an event with Michael Mann. The last slide of his presentation showed his daughter with a polar bear at the zoo. He said if we didn’t immediately make changes, his daughter would have to explain to her children that polar bears once lived in the wild.
His daughter will have many things to explain, but they will all be about her crazy evil father.
If there was ever a candidate for long-term therapy it has to be her. Sort of like Svetlana Stalin.
Uhhh . . . okay . . . let her explain. I’m going to quit driving my V-8 Mustangs so his daughter doesn’t have to explain where polar bears used to live? Let me think about it. I thought about it. No.
The trouble with “normal” is that “normal” was measured at the late 20th century when things were not a good normal. It also presupposes that “normal” is some kind of fixed temperature and not a natural cycle of warmer and colder.
There is no ‘normal’ in climate or weather, that is a fallacy cooked up by alarmists.
The best word to describe the current climate is mild and it isn’t looking good for it to continue this way. I wouldn’t throw away any winter clothes out there.
What is the forecast impact of all the warmer Arctic weather in early 2014? I’ve seen conflicting estimates. Joe Bastardi, for example, expects to see greater ice extent, which is surprising.
Comparing the graphs of 2013
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2013.png
and 2014
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2014.png
it seems clear to me that the main difference is at the beginning of each year, colder in 2013, but after day ~ 60 up to “present” (around day 130) the two graphs show similar trend, a little hotter than the average green curve.
If the similarity continues until September- and this is a big *IF*- with below than average temperatures as it happened in 2013, the present MYI will be enough to produce an even better extent than at the end of last summer. I think that Joe B. used this hypothesis in his analysis.
OK, and thanks for the links to the archived data.
Depends on what the Atlantic ocean is doing (NAO) and what the winds/storms are doing.
From Vukcevic
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/AMO.htm
HIs comment is “… the truncated AMO actually follows the northern NAO component by ~11 years….” Unfortunately he is not big on explanations or labeling his graphs well.
The jet stream has also shifted into a new/different regime with “loopyier jets’ and blocking highs.
Thanks, Gail.
>>Depends on what the Atlantic ocean is doing (NAO) and what the winds/storms are doing.<<
Plus loopier jets. Well we saw that this winter. I need to check the consequences to the similar extreme cold US winters in the 1980's.
As to the Vukcevic graphs, the ~11 year delay (really 12) is mind-boggling, but so is the high correlation. I don't know what to make of them.
What do you think is the importance of the AMO on this dynamical equilibrium, Gail?
I believe there is a huge oscillation operating on both N. Atlantic and N. Pacific now that is bringing warm waters to NP and colder to NA.
I have no clear idea of what is causing it.
It could be the light trend for El Nino conditions that we’re having now (another “failed” El Nino as in 2012?) or something larger that would include the continuous expansion of the Antarctic ice.
I believe the AO controls the temperature of the N. Pole during the winter, but with the present good positioning of the Arctic ice, it should be not important for the final extent at the end of the summer.
From the little reading I have done, the Antarctic has qute a bit of influence on the Atlantic ocean. And then there is the effects of changes in the Solar EUV/UV.
I haven’t gotten into trying to disentangle all the influences, but the Antarctic circumpolar current (West wind drift) and the constriction at Drake Passage and the Cape of Good Hope are the places to go looking. They have been pretty much ignored in the literature which is a really good pointer for “Dig Here”
See my old comment here.
Don’t forget too that the Arctic has thicker ice this year than this time a year ago.
So, there’s a possibility the Arctic will be roughly where it was decades ago. That would just be priceless.
Give it anoter decade or so and yes I think that is what we will see.
The question is what will happen to the Antarctic. That is the much more important area, when it comes to affecting the climate of the earth as a whole.
RACookPE1978 at WUWT had several good comments on the subject explaining why that are worth reading. Here are two:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/24/claim-analysis-indicates-that-north-and-tropical-atlantic-warming-affects-antarctic-climate/#comment-1547979
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/25/a-retrospective-fun-with-sea-ice/#comment-1549858
It certainly will be a good year for ice watchers. Much thicker ice this year so will be interesting to see what happens.
Andy
There has to be someone in climatology that realizes that the 2 degree warming in the Arctic that they’re touting must be largely due to temperatures from January to March, i.e at a time when the sun isn’t out, which makes it a bit of a stretch to ascribe it to a greenhouse effect.
..and requires far less energy to affect the change.
If Arctic temperatures do a repeat of last year, part of me wants to cheer b/c the data further refute AGWs – BUT – that said, it does not auger well for the future if a real cooling cycle takes hold.
It cetainly does not auger well for the future
.
Even if we just see a repeat of the temperatures of the late 1960s to 1970s you are looking at a shift in crop extent of ~150 miles, ~200km.
GRAPH
This is Figure 3 from a paper by Suckling and Mitchell in 2000 which examined variation of the C/D climatic boundary under the Koppen climate classification system for the central United States during the 20th Century
Definition of the Koppen climate classification system: http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/322068/Koppen-climate-classification