NSIDC’s 2012 Nature Trick

Two years ago, I caught NSIDC pulling a fast one in their sea ice graphs. A few hours before the Arctic extent line was about to cross the 1979-2000 mean line, they changed their plotting scheme to use a five day trailing average for the current ice and a nine day trailing average for the climatology. This moved the extent line away from the mean line, and narrowly avoided the immediate death of the death spiral.

I pointed out to them they can’t do that because it puts a two day relative shift in the data – and after arguing with me about it they admitted they can’t do that and fixed it the next day.


About Tony Heller

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21 Responses to NSIDC’s 2012 Nature Trick

  1. Jim Hunt says:

    Of course the NSIDC made another hasty correction last year, when an eagle-eyed reader pointed out a typo in one of their articles!


    • bit chilly says:

      i would say rose is as much an arctic expert as friv jim . msm journalists and politicians are to be neither trusted,not listened to/read. they are all full of shit .

      • Jim Hunt says:

        I heartily concur with that sentiment Chilly! They don’t know their arse from their elbow if you ask me, so the shit emerges out of their (metaphorical) mouth instead.

  2. Toppleton Geardom says:

    Baraq says: Can’t touch this. 😉


  3. Edmonton Al says:

    Thanks for your vigilence. At least they listened…

  4. hifast says:

    Then, later that year the observed extent line plunged to its lowest point in the satellite era–a point from which the Arctic has steadily recovered. Tony, thanks for your great work on our behalf.

  5. Hugh K says:

    Great job Tony. I’m trying to mortify my curiosity as to their justification for changing “their plotting scheme to use a five day trailing average for the current ice and a nine day trailing average for the climatology” before ‘seeing the light’. And I’m not succeeding… Help?!?

  6. mwhite says:

    “Crystal’s first expedition-style voyage charts Northwest Passage in 2016 ”


    “During the voyage, speakers will address climate change and how it has impacted this passage. The recent retreat of polar ice has enabled Crystal to undertake the cruise.”

    “A 20% initial deposit will be required to secure all bookings, with $500 of the deposit non-refundable. Starting July 17,(SUKERS!!!!)

  7. geran says:

    It is bad enough that they had to be “caught”, but then they tried to argue?

    Good catch, Dr. Goddard. 🙂

  8. bit chilly says:

    steve, a big well done from me,first for having the ability to spot what they were doing, and second for making them stop. it is a step in the right direction.

  9. gregole says:

    Nice to see these public servants under the scrutiny of the public!

    Thanks for all you do Steven!

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