It has been 10 years since the New York Times announced the end of winter in the Northeast US, and the arrival of Magnolia trees in central Maryland. They tied this to the demise of Polar Bears, disappearing Arctic sea ice and global warming.
With Warmer Weather, Different Decisions to Make – New York Times
Here is a big old Magnolia tree at Marilyn DiReggi’s Civil War era house in northern Maryland (which Montgomery County is still attempting to steal.) I’m pretty sure the tree didn’t just arrive there.
It is Arctic cold in Maryland and they are expecting more than two feet of snow this week.
There has been no change in winter temperatures in the Northeast over the past 120 years, with last January-March being the coldest on record. Winter temperatures peaked in the 1950s.
Polar Bear populations are up 10% to record highs since that story was written.
polar-bear-numbers-to-2015-sept-1-final1.jpg (766×365)
And there has been no change in Arctic sea ice area over the past decade.
iphone.anomaly.arctic.png (512×412)
The New York Times got every single one of their facts wrong, but that is the norm for progressives.
The New York Times is not in the business of selling the news. In fact, they are not in the business of even selling the truth. “Dissemination of the facts” is nowhere to be found in their business charter. They are in the business of selling advertisements — and the way to sell advertisements is to get a high number of eyeballs readings their rag. If claims that Bozo the Clown was changing the climate would pull in readers, you can bet that the headlines would read, “Bozo! Threat, or menace?” Truth has essentially nothing to do with their publication.
“They are in the business of selling advertisements — and the way to sell advertisements is to get a high number of eyeballs readings their rag”
That business model will be extinct in 5 years…almost no one will purchase “papers” but instead all news will be online. Then it will be Microsoft, Google and Yahoo who give us these false stories.
The old gray lady ain’t what she used to be. But I have to wonder if your prediction of the demise of her dead tree version is not a bit premature because I have been hearing the same thing for years now.
Well, when liberals want to preserve the status quo for their own benefit (i.e. $$$), they will find a way.
Anyone else remember Jayson Blair?
I happened to be out and about yesterday doing some errands when Rush Limbaugh was on. Don’t really listen much to him anymore because I already know what he’s going to say about the issues. But I cracked up when he said something like:
‘People don’t watch the MSM or listen to talk radio programs for them to tell them what their opinions should be, though perhaps NYT readers do.’
The New York Times got every single one of their facts wrong…
Since Marty isn’t here to correct you, I will point out that the NYT got the date right.
😀
Good catch. Finally something right.
Written by: Anne RAVER. The name suits her..
When the NYT’s employees went on strike decades ago, they published a parody paper…the mast head read:”All the News That’s Print to Fit”
Sorry this wanders but the stuff is interesting and bares on how we are mislead by the MSM. I have zero idea whether or not much of this is fact or fiction.
WIKI on J.P. Morgan
A bit more on: Operation Mockingbird (from Conspiracy site)
https://www.popularresistance.org/operation-mockingbird-cia-media-control-program/
Which mentions “After 1953, the network was overseen by Allen W. Dulles, director of the Central Intelligence Agency. By this time Operation Mockingbird had a major influence over 25 newspapers and wire agencies. These organizations were run by people with well-known right-wing views….”
Which is highly amusing since Allen W. Dulles was not exactly pro-American.
cfr = Council on Foreign Relations
(John Foster Dulles and Allen W. Dulles were brothers BTW.)
Another bit from another conspiracy site. ‘The CIA’s Worst-Kept Secret.’ This guy alleges Dulles transferred Nazis to the CIA. —- WTF?
And this seems to back that up…
Checkmate on ‘The Devil’s Chessboard’
more and more I find that the news is being manipulated, to fit whatever it is that the “masters” want us to hear or know.
I have decided to end my subscription to Time Magazine as they just preach what CNN is saying. It is a waste of time even reading their nonsense, especially about the climate.
I like RT as my main source of information as I think they do their best to get a fair perspective on all of the news. [they also have have Larry King….]
I also follow the Dutch and Belgian news.
CNN is owned by the Saudis.
Isn’t it great to know the Walt Disney kiddie stuff comes from muslims….
http://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c5a87ff7c0c27314f83df5e17ea95a2dcaea0f667933cfe0ec6da8cf36aa7ade.png
just to let you know,
I also do listen to the South African news, every day, on the radio.
It just keeps me laughing and laughing, everyday,
especially hearing our prime minister trying to count,
2016 = two thousand and one six……..
I started reading TIME weekly while Nixon was in office, and finally ended my subscription over a decade ago. I watched as TIME cheered on the housing crisis, and could take no more when they depicted an American soldier cowering on the front cover. TIME is an enemy of all liberty loving humans.
agreed
Time is a waste of time
Then there’s the old joke, “There is a reason TIME has a red border.” 😛
TIME lies within red borders. 😉
I told you it is globally cooling.
Must be.
It is what all my results for minima, maxima and means are telling:
e.g.
https://i0.wp.com/oi62.tinypic.com/33kd6k2.jpg
Have you seen today’s Yahoo ‘news’ article claiming all the massive heat generated by Amerikan SUVs is sequestered in the oceans and just hankerin’ to jump out and bake the earth?
Here is the link
http://news.yahoo.com/study-man-made-heat-put-oceans-doubled-since-160154125.html
Gazillions of joules, LOL WTF
I am waiting for the CAGW zombies to start reporting thermal energy in electron volts. After all, one joule equals 6.24 X 10^18 electron volts. WOW! WHAT A GIGANTIC NUMBER! THAT MUST BE REALLY CATASTROPHIC!
Seriously, the next time some yahoo tells you that the ocean is absorbing so many joules, just ask them “how much, exactly, is a joule?” If you wish, bet them $20 that they don’t have a clue. If they want to go double or nothing, ask them what that gigantic number of joules in the ocean works out to as far as degrees.
if this were true
than we would find temps. rising,
not dropping
https://i0.wp.com/oi62.tinypic.com/33kd6k2.jpg
I’ve never hear a satisfactory explanation of how that supposed heat is getting into the oceans.
both UV and IR has absorption in water,
so technically [if heat from cars is still IR] it would be possible for some of that heat from earth to be absorbed [= changed to heat] in water.
However, my finding is that it is rather the UV that contributes to most of the heat that gets sequestered to heat in the oceans and the amount of that UV coming in is in turn dependent on the amount of ozone, N-oxides and peroxides formed TOA.
In its turn, the amount of ozone & others formed TOA
DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS ON THE SUN….
It is the SUN STUPID! (To Yahoo and boy are they yahoos…)
http://www.john-daly.com/sverdrup.gif
Rah-
Jason explained it below. He’s been driving his SUV underwater.
There simply is no mechanism for getting heat from air to water, without warming the surface of that water. Anyone telling you that’s happening is promoting magic, not science.
The article was written by Seth Borenstein. Nuff said.
Quote: “Because there are decades when good data wasn’t available and computer simulations are involved, the overall figures are rough but still are reliable,”
In deference to the CAGW supporters, I vow to stop driving my SUV under the ocean where the heat becomes trapped.
A real reporter and editor would return to that farm and follow-up on the kiwis. But the 2006 NYT article is written with such a slanted intellectual investment in AGW, Arctic ice, and polar bear decimation, that any follow up could reflect poorly on their investment.
CHECK OUT CSPAN 2….LIVE
I don’t know about magnolias, but I have it on good authority that coconuts could be carried that far north by an African swallow. Of course, African swallows are non-migratory. Maybe two swallows. They could carry it by a strand of tree bark, held under the dorsal guiding feathers…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzcLQRXW6B0
Southern Magnolia tress grow in the 7a to 10a zones ( http://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/PHZMWeb/# ). It looks like that area (Montgomery County) is 7a so that would pretty be the northernmost extent that the Southern Magnolia would be able to grow in that general area.
Gail has posted some interesting information about the migration of these zones in the past century but I have no idea where she gets her information or whether she can access any for this area..
Magnolia trees grow slowly. Two of my neighbors have ones about that size and they are 50 years old. So that tree probably lived through the cold winters in the late 70s. We’re in Southern Louisiana, so our Magnolias trees would grow a good bat faster quicker here.
“Magnolias trees would grow a good bat faster quicker here.” … sigh
After looking up all that information I end up sounding like a village idiot by not rereading my final sentence.
…wait just a minute…they said I was the village idiot!
Southern Magnolias can even grow in Zone 6.
http://www.arborday.org/trees/treeguide/TreeDetail.cfm?ItemID=863
http://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/PHZMWeb/Images/72DPI/va.jpg
For Florida the USDA shows the entire state with the exception of the tip subject to freeze. Some one here in the last year mentioned the Citrus groves have had to move south because the recent colder winters wiped out the trees. You can tell where the groves used to be by the names of the towns.
” On his second trip in 1493, Christopher Columbus brought seeds of citrus trees and had them planted near what is currently St. Augustine.”
Timeline of Major Florida Freezes “*Impact Freeze: a freeze so severe that it annihilates entire groves across the state, killing both mature and young citrus trees, while causing a profound economic impact on the citrus industry and usually prompting growers to replant farther south.”
MAJOR FREEZES
1835
1894-5
1899
1917
1934
1940 (coldest on record for state of Florida)
1957
1962
1977
1981
1983
1985
1989 “This freeze occurred on December 22-26. This freeze was the fifth *impact freeze recorded in Florida history, however it was the second *impact freeze in a single decade, leaving growers little time to recover after the freezes of 1983 and 1985.”
So during ‘Gore Bull Warming’ in the decade that Hansen started screaming we were all going to fry, Florida had two out of the five impact freezes in over a century of record keeping…. Riiiiggght.
http://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/PHZMWeb/Images/72DPI/fl.jpg
“so our Magnolias trees would grow a good bat faster quicker here.”
Do bats like Magnolia trees ?
And how do you tell a good bat from a bad bat… except in cricket.
All bats are good bats as long as the eat insects and not fruit … or blood.
And yes the little brown bat, common on the east coast likes to roost in trees.
http://animals.mom.me/DM-Resize/photos.demandstudios.com/getty/article/251/33/86809452_XS.jpg
http://animals.mom.me/DM-Resize/photos.demandstudios.com/getty/article/251/76/86806149_XS.jpg
It appears that the DMI has stopped updating the 30% graph (last update was on the 8th). They are continuing to update the 15% graph, though (last update 1/16/16).
More Stupid: “it takes two days worth of electricity to de-ice a wind turbine” : http://iceagenow.info/ice-freezes-windmills-sweden/
“it takes two days worth of electricity to de-ice a wind turbine”
I’m laughing out loud in merriment on that one. Where is the electricity supposed to come from once we get rid of the Fossil Menace?
If you could make that kind of stuff up I think you’d make a fortune as a comedy writer.
I misquoted, correction: The amount of energy required is equivalent to two days worth of electricity. They use an oil burner to heat the H2O, and a helicopter to spray and melt the ice off the blades. But it’s still quite hilarious.
I understood what you were saying. I was thinking along the lines of how that power generation would be made up during down time in a future that has moved beyond fossil fuels.
I guess maybe they’ll be using solar powered helicopters and water heaters in the future?
Plus when do you decide to de-ice the blades? the Spring thaw? A week before a new front is coming through?
Don’t be obtuse Dave, those helicopters will be wind powered. They already have blades, duh.
Ummm…Good question that “when.” I mean, does spraying water on a frozen windmill actually do the job? Won’t it, like, you know…, I mean…, refreeze?
120 years with no appreciable change in temperature and still they are not happy. They like the warm weather but are worried that the CO2 which is helping their trees grow, could suddenly become a dangerous temperature feedback cycle after millions of years of rational behaviour. These people are nuts.
“….. These people are
nutscrooks.”I guess it was unusual to see roses, forsythia and cherry blossoms blooming on Christmas in the DC area. Of course, this week it has been bitter cold and the models are saying that on Friday and Saturday, we are going to get a repeat of the Snowmaggedon which took place in 2010, with two feet of snow in places. I suppose we are going to hear a lot about global weirding, when in reality it is just the law of averages.
Does any of this really compare to 1978-79?
We face a utopian form of totalitarianism, i.e., communism that promises to end social injustice and delivers even greater injustice and slavery.
Hitler’s message was much more honest than that of Stalin and current world leaders.
Slightly OT, but climate stupidity related: http://phys.org/news/2016-01-mounting-evidence-early-agriculture-staved.html
What an enormous load of horse excrement. These are truly delusional people, both the authors and the journal editors.
And even if it was true.. YOU BEAUDDDY !!!
Imagine living in a major ice age, rather than in a brief, slightly warmer interlude
Again you are basing climate decisions on 10 years of data! What about the sea ice extent change from the last 35 years? It tells a much different story. It is always easy to cherry pick data. Oldest trick in the book used by people who want to make a point that is contrary to analysis of all the data. This is why the decision to launch the shuttle in cold weather was made – they looked at the o-ring data for warm temperatures only.
You mean like cherry picking 1979 as the start date for the sea ice records?
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/06/15/ignoring-inconvenient-arctic-data/
Incidentally, what does your accusation have to do with the discussion at hand? There are plenty of other posts here where your comment would actually be relevant. It would still be wrong, though, because you’re comparing the mathematical process of determining the length of a zero trend interval, to the political process of picking the most advantageous start point. If we were doing the latter, we would start with the 1998 peak, and claim 18 years of cooling. But since you can’t look past the political dogma, you insist that we can’t, either.
Its amazing that these mathematically inept drones STILL don’t “get” that the so-called starting point is NOT cherry-picked, but determined by a mathematical back-calculation from NOW.
The have zero critical thinking capacity and just regurgitate talking points from, Romm, Tamino or Cook.
The oldest trick in the book is to use just the upward leg of the AMO as a basis for Arctic sea ice trends.
(In your case I suspect it is ignorance , rather than a trick)
You can also ignore the fact that for the first 3/4 of the Holocene, there was often zero Arctic summer sea ice., and that the current level is actually anomalously high compared to all but the period called the Little Ice age.
ST says: “…. What about the sea ice extent change from the last 35 years?…”
It ain’t climate it is only the warming half of the AMO. To look at climate you need more like 1500 years.
The Earth is at the top of the warm phase of the AMO and as the AMO starts to cool the arctic sea ice will rebuild, given the down trend of the AMO and the configuration of the Arctic ocean basin.
http://climate.mr-int.ch/images/graphs/amo.png
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/AMO_AND_PDO.jpgFigure_PDO-01.JPG
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/11/PDO1000yr.svg/800px-PDO1000yr.svg.png
CLIMATE
http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/lappi/gisp-last-10000-new.png
http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/lappi/Five_Myr_Climate_Change_Rev.jpg
http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/lappi/65_Myr_Climate_Change_Rev.jpg
Gail, I’m at work at the moment. ( computer is running some climate based sims, I can post here while I wait, rather than twiddling my thumbs 😉
As such, I don’t have links to those AMO vs whatever graphs of mine, but if you have them available, feel free to use them 🙂
Andy G I have these:
http://i46.tinypic.com/r7uets.png
https://i1.wp.com/oi51.tinypic.com/24yptu0.jpg
https://i0.wp.com/www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/AO-DJF-cumulative-since-1900.png
What I find interesting is the work done by Don Easterbrook tracking the Mt Baker glaciers.
Despite being on the opposite side of the US from the Atlantic, they also follow the same pattern
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/clip_image004.png
The PDO from Roy Spencer
http://www.drroyspencer.com/library/pics/PDO-index-since-1900.jpg
What I find interesting is the graphs are not the same for the PDO
Tokyo Climate Center, Climate Prediction Division
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/decadal/annpdo.gif
“The red line represents annual mean values for the PDO index, the blue line represents five-year running mean values, and the gray bars represent monthly valuies.”
Note: North Pacific (NP) Index probably not identical to PDO. Positive values indicate warm phases of PDO, negative values the cool phases. (NOAA)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/images/pdoindex2.jpg
From this article. The title is very telling…
Long-Awaited ‘Jump’ In Global Warming Now Appears ‘Imminent’ by Joe Romm Apr 2, 2015 4:25 pm
http://d35brb9zkkbdsd.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Pacific-Decadal-Oscillation-3-15.jpg
“The positive phase of PDO [Pacific Decadal Oscillation] index has persisted 8 months since Jul 2014 with PDO index = + 1.6 in Feb 2015.”
Done enough work for today.. 😉
So I will now post a couple of graphs that “might explain the link between Arctic sea ice and the AMO, and why it is the ULTIMATE cherry-pick to start Arctic sea ice in 1979.
First. Reykjavik temperatures vs AMO
http://s19.postimg.org/5vfcwbc8j/amoreyk.jpg
Next, NH sea ice levels inverted and put against the AMO
http://s19.postimg.org/4crolmgmr/amo_vs_NHice.jpg
Now a look at the so-called average and deviation as used on some sea ice graphs. This one requires a bit of explanation
http://s19.postimg.org/f7g5os3ar/Amomean1sd.jpg
If you look at the blue shading, that is the period the “average” is based on.. ie the upward leg of the AMO. The pink shade is the approximate 1sd region. Now, as you can see, the blue dot is currently just outside that 1sd region, and guess what, that is exactly where Arctic sea ice levels are..
Now lets look at the UAH NoPol temperatures since the AMO started to peak. As you can see, apart from the step in 2010, a very distinct COOLING trend.
http://s19.postimg.org/sm42pougj/No_Pol2.jpg
“Again you are basing climate decisions on 10 years of data! ”
Climate is driven by cycles, unless you understand those cycles and where things are on those cycles, you can make MASSIVE errors, as the climate scientists have, with predictions and news grabs.
10 years is actually a good length, because it basically represents the “top” of the AMO cycle, (often called a ‘stationary point’ in mathematics).
PDO also is heading down, as is solar output.
I hope you currently live somewhere warm, otherwise the next decade or so could be very chilly for you.
Excellent – now we are talkin data and time scale that is meaningful! Thank you! Please be careful in assuming what what my political orientation is. You could be wrong. Actually by making this political as this site does – by name calling and such – you do an injustice to both sides as arguments breakdown because people immediately discredit each other. This is all about the data and models.
I can’t see where anyone called you names.
….. this last comment of yours, marks you as an overly sensitive, PC leftist, though.
We have found over many years that data has very little to do with AGW, otherwise it would have died many years ago..
The whole scam is now almost totally political, and as such cannot be discussed without bringing politics into it.
Your first comment was plainly accusatory. Don’t jump on me for calling you out on it, when that was obviously your intent. “Cherry picking” is nothing more than a euphemism for liar, and you’re fully aware of that fact. Calling people liars is the realm of politics, not of science.
If you’d like to start over, and politely discuss science, I’d be perfectly happy with that, as would pretty much all the regulars here.
Personally I HATE POLITICS!
Unfortunately if you have more than two people you’ve got politics where at the club, the office, local, state or national. And you ignore the politics at your peril.
Kiwis in Long Island? BFD!
I planted Kiwis in Taxechusetts up near the New Hampshire border back in the early 1980s and had no problems with them.
Right now I am trying to track down a cashmere buck for my goat herd. With the temperatures in the teens this week, I am glad all my kids are nice and fuzzy with a nice woolly cashmere undercoat to keep them warm.
http://www.acga.org.au/Allendale-2005-005.jpeg
A Kiwi, is a native New Zealand bird, or a person who originates from New Zealand..
Why are you planting them.. I’m guessing they would not be amused 😉
Accidentally ran into a Kiwi (person) the other day.. and bounced off,
…. darn they breed those guys solid ! 🙂
KIWI —- YUM!
http://bellafruits.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/FreshKiwiFruitPhoto5-300×177.jpg
http://www.teara.govt.nz/files/p17715nsil.jpg
I did know you were talking about Kiwi fruit 😉
The idea of planting Kiwis, just amused me. 🙂
Kiwifruit:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kiwifruit
I know , Karl. I have a friend who is a commercial grower of many fruits and vegetables.
He is actually a Kiwi. 😉
( ie… he’s of Maori descent… but I can still understand what he says most of the time.)
I have tried over the years to learn as much as practical from him, and have often helped out on this farms. (including helping with installing CO2 monitoring gear in growth enhanced greenhouses)
Andy G knows I have a sense of humor and was having me on.
“Andy G knows I have a sense of humor”
You do ????? 😉
http://poplinfarms.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/image2-1024×768.jpg
Cherry picking equals lying? Now who is the sensitive one? I could easily call you a right- winged ignorant jackass. I’d be lying but does that prove to you that I’m not PC? See how ridiculous the name calling is? One can easily cherry pick and be entirely truthful. The earth is either warming, cooling, or not changing. For the sake of argument – if it is cooling everything will be obvious in time, not changing will also be obvious in time and there is nothing to worry about. If it is warming it is either due to natural or man-made causes. it can be ignored and deal with the consequences or something possible done about it. One can say the data is tampered with and that it discredits everything – fine but that same data cannot be used to make an alternative point. One can cherry pick and find historical exceptions but this is not a hypothesis or a test or a model. If this site says it is not warming – what are the theories, hypotheses and tests for those hypotheses that support the argument and can they stand up to peer review? There are millions of dollars to be made for the first person who comes up with the alternate model, that withstands scientific rigor – that the earth is not warming. That’s what the lefties have done – it’s the opposition’s responsibility to due the same. Actually believe it or not – deep down I don’t believe that the argument of man-induced climate change is the real issue. Poll after poll show that most people believe that the climate is changing and is caused by man. I think the real issue is that many people don’t like possible solutions to it – which will require some level of government intervention/regulation and participation from nations on a global scale. This is where the politics come in.
The earth is certainly not going to warm catastrophically for another 65 kyr.
Both NASA and WIki use Berger’s MODELS to say the Holocene will continue and the Ice Age the earth is presently in has ended. However more recent research using real data, not models, shoots Berger’s models dead.
The Holocene interglacial is now 11,700 years old. That’s two centuries or so beyond half the present precession cycle (or 23,000/2=11,500). So the little Ice Age was about the right time for glacial inception. However we had the Modern Grand Solar Minimum – SEE: A History of Solar Activity over Millennia
Will the earth descend into glaciation or be a ‘‘double precession cycle’’ interglacial? That is still being argued although the above paper carries a lot of weight. A newer paper from the fall of 2012 Can we predict the duration of an interglacial? agrees and gives the calculated solar insolation values @ 65N on June 22 for several glacial inceptions:
Current value – insolation = 479W m?2 (from that paper)
MIS 7e – insolation = 463 W m?2,
MIS 11c – insolation = 466 W m?2,
MIS 13a – insolation = 500 W m?2,
MIS 15a – insolation = 480 W m?2,
MIS 17 – insolation = 477 W m?2
(Changes near the north polar area, about 65 degrees North, are considered important due to the great amount of land. Land masses respond to temperature change more quickly than oceans.)
CO2 logarithmic absorption ignoring the new data that squashes the curve even flatter at the higher concentrations.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/heating_effect_of_co2.png
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/co2_modtrans_img1.png
If we managed to kick the CO2 back up to where plants want it, 1000 to 1500 ppm, reading from the chart you are looking at ~5 Wm2.
So where are we in terms of the Milankovitch cycle and solar insolation?
NOAA
NOAA: (Berger’s calculated numbers @ 60N)
(www1DOT)ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/orbital_variations/berger_insolation/insol91.jun
Holocene peak insolation: 523 Wm-2
……………………………………………..decreased = 47 Wm-2
NOW (modern Warm Period) 476 Wm-2
…………………………………………….. decreased = 12 Wm-2
Depth of the last ice age – around 464 Wm?2
11,000 years ago…………… 523.16 Wm-2 peak insolation
Wisconsin Ice age- Holocene transition
12,000 years ago…………… 522.50 Wm-2
So it took around 523 Wm-2 to kick the earth into this interglacial. Solar insolation @ 60N has decreased by 47 Wm-2 since then putting the earth just 12 Wm-2 of insolation above the deepest part of the Wisconsin Ice Age. I find that a wee bit scary. It means if the earth switches towards the ‘cold attractor’ which is the more stable state, the earth stays there for the next 64,000 years.
What about CO2?
It would take about 5 Watts per square meter to raise the worlds temperature from 15°C to 16°C.
From Temperature and precipitation history of the Arctic (2010)
climate(DOT)envsci.rutgers.edu/robock/MillerArctic.pdf
So even if you are talking 9% of Trenbreth’s “incoming solar radiation… absolute forcing,… around 340 W m–2 at the top of the atmosphere” the reduction in solar radiation since the Holocene climate Optimum is 30.6 W m–2 , and is equivalent to the entire CO2 forcing [32-44 W m–2] with mankind’s contribution being 1.5 W/m 2 for the forcing of anthropogenic CO2 [cf., Reid, 1997].
So who in their right mind would advocate getting rid of the few W/m 2 that might be the difference between ‘chilly’ and frozen?
Of course chilly is not anything to write home about.
So We are either going to have another “extended interglacial”, like MIS-11 did, or we won’t, like MIS-19 didn’t, given that like them we are once again at a 400kyr eccentricity minimum.
There is a particularly prickly issue that either case is stuck with:
If the Holocene is to “go-long” like MIS-11 did, what could we possibly deploy to get us through the several thousand years of cold between the first and second MIS-11 insolation peaks… [Even if the Holocene duplicates MIS 11 it ain’t going to be warm.]
“The lesson from the last interglacial “greenhouse” in the Bahamas is that the closing of that interval brought sea-level changes that were rapid and extreme. This has prompted the remark that between the greenhouse and the icehouse lies a climatic “madhouse”!
Correct me if I am mistaken, but I believe that the logarithmic charts for CO2 are for CO2 added to a dry atmosphere. When real world H2) is added in, the overlap with CO2 absorption bands wipes out almost all CO2 effects. I am not saying that addition CO2 has ZERO effect — but it is so close that even God has to squint to see it.
H2) = H2O
Jason, it doesn’t matter because the increase is no more than 5 Watts per square meter from 300 ppm to 400 ppm and they can only hang mankind for 1 Watts per square meter of that at most. (97% of the total annual emission of CO2 comes from natural emissions of the land and sea; human beings add a mere 3%. )
Differences in cloud cover and Antarctic Sea Ice albedo are going to wipe that out. Since water vapor is not cooperating by tripling the effect of CO2 you are talking noise.
Some info on modtran from ClimAstrologists who consider Skeptics ‘Ill’
http://www.barrettbellamyclimate.com/page20.htm
Also on other pages like
http://www.barrettbellamyclimate.com/page27.htm
http://www.barrettbellamyclimate.com/page28.htm
It looks like they are only considering the one window where H2O does not overlap very much.
The other point ClimAstrologists neglect to mention, that my geology prof did, is it is not cold weather but SNOW that is critical to glaciation. And you get snow when the Jet Stream meanders so cold air and moist warm air clash.
https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/shockingpolarvortexfrom20000yearsagovs20140122v001.png
So what are we seeing leaving out the temperature record?
Snow Cover
Northern Hemisphere snow cover has soared to record levels.
https://i1.wp.com/realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/ScreenHunter_2301-Jun.-07-09.15.gif
There has been a massive Increase in Scottish Snow Patches
https://weatheraction.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/wpid-scottish_snow_patches_20150827t140213.jpg
Glaciation starts in Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes are directly south. The European glacier is seen in Scotland and Scandinavia. Therefore major snowfall and lingering summer snow in these areas and not some cooked up ‘Global Temperature’ is the indicator of real changes in the climate.
Glaciation starts in Hudson Bay
August 13, 2015: 2nd highest ice coverage for Hudson Bay since 1971 at mid-August – only 1992 higher
The sea ice on 25 July 2015. (Note the location of the Great Lakes and think of the record ice the last couple of winters and the 6F below normal summer water temperature.)
https://polarbearscience.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/hudson-bay-breakup-july-25-2015_cis.gif
The Great Lakes obliterated all records for springtime ice last year, and this year.
On March 1, 2014 the Great Lakes were approaching 100% Ice Cover – For The First Time On Record, only Lake Ontario was the only major holdout
https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/lice-00-1.gif
By March 26, 2014 the Great Lakes broke all records.
https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/20140324180000_cvchdctgl_0007583110.gif
March 3, 2015: Great Lakes ice cover over 88%, more than last year
And on 14th October 2014, Water temperature of the Great Lakes is over 6 degrees colder than normal
Itally captured the world’s one day snow fall record twice this last winter in March TWICE.
240cm (7.84 ft) in Pescocostanzo
256cm (8.34 ft) of snow Capracotta
A total of 10 feet (3 meters) of snow fell on Passolanciano, Majella burying the chairlifts (6 Mar 2015 )
Not far away, the Greek islands in the Mediterranean were buried under 6½ ft (2 m) of snow in January and Saudi Arabia has had snow two winters in a row.
In Norway they were forced to remove excessive snow from ski slopes – “During the last two days we’ve got more snow than we had in the last two years together,” said Vegar Sårheim. “I had never believed we would experience this.”
Those are just a few snow events over the last ten years that are ignored by the MSM. I am sure that Japan and South America is hardily sick of the cold weather and snow.
Good comment.
I wish Gavin Schmidt would read it. What a load of nonsense he is selling.
snow deflects/reflects a lot of radiation from the sun, setting us up for an ice age trap.
when this happens we could counter act by covering the snow with [pure] carbon…..
Talk about irony.,…?
Hudson Bay Sea Ice
Sea Ice mid July 2015
https://i1.wp.com/ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca//www_archive/AOI_09/Charts/sc_a09_20150720_WIS54CT.gif
Sea Ice mid July 2014
https://i0.wp.com/ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca//www_archive/AOI_09/Charts/sc_a09_20140721_WIS54CT.gif
Sea Ice mid July 2013
https://i0.wp.com/ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca//www_archive/AOI_09/Charts/sc_a09_20130715_WIS54CT.gif
Sea Ice mid July 2012
https://i0.wp.com/ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca//www_archive/AOI_09/Charts/sc_a09_20120716_WIS54CT.gif
Sea Ice mid July 2011
https://i0.wp.com/ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca//www_archive/AOI_09/Charts/sc_a09_20110718_WIS54CT.gif
Sea Ice mid August 2015
https://i1.wp.com/ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca//www_archive/AOI_09/Charts/sc_a09_20150810_WIS54CT.gif
Sea Ice mid August 2014
https://i0.wp.com/ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca//www_archive/AOI_09/Charts/sc_a09_20140811_WIS54CT.gif
There are millions of dollars to be made for the first person who comes up with the alternate model, that withstands scientific rigor – that the earth is not warming.
Really? Where? Please provide the available grants for proving the Earth is not warming. Meanwhile the 1.5 trillion dollar climate change industry marches on.
Looks Like Dr Evans is about to win a HUGE chunk of cash shortly.
https://media2.stickersmalin.com/produit/100/stickers-devil-smile-R1-143760-2.png
Hey ST! “If this site says it is not warming – what are the theories, hypotheses and tests for those hypotheses that support the argument and can they stand up to peer review?”
The test for whether it is warming or not is to look at the data. The data says that globally, it has not warmed enough to be statistically significant in about 18 years. We sceptics believe the data.
On the other hand the CAGW supporters claim that the measured data is flawed, but rather than just show what the data says and then increase the size of the error bars, they claim that they can change the data (in some cases, change the data more than a century after it was measured) and have a more accurate picture of what the temperatures are doing. They have given some reasons for specific adjustments (and some of the reasons make sense and sceptics would not argue too strongly against them), but for most of the adjustments they have not given either reasons or reproducible methods for calculating the size of the adjustments. In fact, they have adjusted the data not once or twice or even ten times or twenty, but over and over and over, adjustment after adjustment after adjustment. To put it in non-technical terms, the CAGW supporters are simply asserting without facts that it is warming. Simple assertion is not science, even when the person doing the asserting has a nice degree from a noted university. Even worse, when the adjustments (not the measurements!) are graphed against CO2 concentrations, there is an almost perfect match. This is an overwhelming piece of evidence that the adjustments have been made solely to support the argument that CO2 is warming the planet.
Well said-I am copying this to my high school nephew-he needs to read it…
ST writes “Poll after poll show that most people believe that the climate is changing and is caused by man.” The fact that many or a majority of people might believe something, has nothing to do with whether or not that thing is true or false. If people are told a lie often enough they come to believe that lie. We now have multiple generations that have been lied to who accept those lies without question. I am glad that there are still a few who manage to think for themselves and are not fooled by the lies. I am glad for those who think for themselves who post here.
““Poll after poll show that most people believe that the climate is changing and is caused by man.”
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Actually that is not true.
Rasmussen
‘
Rasmussen poll results for question:
Global Warming is Primarily Caused By…
Date….. Human activity.. Planetary Trends .. Other Reason
August 2015 …. 44% …………… 39% ……………. 7%
June 2015 ……… 45% …………… 35% …………….. 8%
December 2014 .. 42% …………… 42% ……………. 7%
October 2014 …… 47% …………… 37% ……………. 6%
August 2014 …….. 41% …………… 32% ……………. 7%
June 2014 ………… 45% …………… 37% ……………. 6%
April 2014 …………. 47% …………… 37% ……………. 6%
Feb 2014 …………. 44% …………… 35%……………. 7%
Oct 2013 ………….. 44% …………… 39%……………. 7%
Aug 2013 …………. 43% …………… 41% ……………. 6%
Jun 2013 ………….. 46% …………… 37% ……………. 6%
Are there two different people posting under the ST handle?