The Bad News For Arctic Alarmists Keeps Getting Worse

The Arctic sea ice minimum this year is very likely going to be be larger than 2016, 2015, 2012, 2011 and 2007.


Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph | Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis

It is also likely that the minimum extent will be higher than 2010 and 2008.

Instead of reporting the huge gain in ice and massive failure of their forecasts, climate alarmists will report that extent was “8th lowest on record.”

‘Next year or the year after, the Arctic will be free of ice’ | Environment | The Guardian

Climate experts are not scientists. They are consultants paid billions of dollars to push junk science on the public.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

73 Responses to The Bad News For Arctic Alarmists Keeps Getting Worse

  1. Jim Hunt says:

    That almost amounts to a prediction Tony! Would you care to suggest a date for your predicted minimum?

    Can I assume that the NSIDC 5 day average extent is now your Arctic metric of choice. I’ll go and update my own musings on the topic with your suggestions straight away!

    http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/09/the-2017-arctic-sea-ice-metric-minima/

    The “surf forecast” for the far North Atlantic for midday on September 6th:

    • gator69 says:

      Jim, I would suggest that you need a girlfriendd, but then you already have Ms Griff.

      Or is your fixation on Tony? You could prove this hypothesis wrong by showing us the years on end nearly daily harrassment of those who have wrongly predicted an ice free Arctic. My guess is that my model will stand up to scrutiny.

      Why do you hate poor brown people, and love you some Tony so much?

      • Colorado Wellington says:

        Ms Griff has headaches too frequently. Jim Hunt should consider one of those upgradable hi-tech dolls. They have replaceable parts, he could make them look like his favorite climate scientists and they can be programmed to say the right things at the right moment, like “GreatWhiteCon makes me hot!”

        • gator69 says:

          If we want Genocide Jim to move on, I suggest we doll up a polar bear. Maybe in a brown suit and Al Gore mask, and sprinkle in some sexed up doomer ice charts to get those juices flowing.

          Badabing badaboom! Hubba hubba…

          • gator69 says:

            Sorry, I don’t get into vans with Genocidal maniacs. Offer your BS to someone who is dumber than you, if you can find one.

            You still have never explained to us why you hate poor brown people? Are you ashamed, or too proud to talk about it?

          • Colorado Wellington says:

            He should register the GreatWhiteVan.pro domain name.

          • AndyG55 says:

            Best idea would for Jimbo the snivelling yellowback troll to actually learn some Arctic history and get rid his massive cowardly streak.

            Then he would be able to ADMIT THE TRUTH that current levels are FAR higher than for most of the last 10,000 years

            He migh also be able to answer this simple question

            What SHOULD the current level of Arctic sea ice be?

            Should it be up with the extremes of the LIA?

            or should it be lower than now , like during the MWP , or even lower, with much more open Arctic seas, like the first 7000+ years of the Holocene.

            But he is a SNIVELLING COWARD, and with slither away through his slime trail to avoid answering.

      • Griff says:

        I post here because the truth and the scientific facts need to be shared as widely as possible…

        But there’s not much of a counter argument to make this a scientific discussion/debate.

        • gator69 says:

          Ms Griff, you post here because you have an agenda. You rarely post facts and often post lies. You have no interest in science, which leads me to ask again…

          Why do you hate poor brown people?

        • Gerald Machnee says:

          Griff, if you want to post science, then answer my questions scientifically:
          1. Show us the science that measures temperature change due to CO2.
          2. Show us the science that determined that 2 deg C is the critical temp increase for runaway warming?

          Waiting………..

        • Mr GrimNasty says:

          Griff, if you post to represent science, why are your posts always faith/belief/emotion soaked?

        • Colorado Wellington says:

          Ms Griff,

          For once we agree. You actually do contribute to the sharing of the truth and scientific facts. It’s just not what you think.

          Your ubiquitous propaganda, lying, running away from questions, evasions, omissions, naïve non sequitur side-tracks and such provide an opportunity for new visitors of this blog to realize that you and your climate cult are full of shit.

          You are also right that responding to you cannot be described as “scientific discussion/debate”. Where I live people call the usual response to your posts a smackdown but you do contribute to joyful gaiety and general merriment of the audience.

          You play an important role in the world. Carry on, my fair social justice warrior lady.

        • AndyG55 says:

          “I post here because the truth and the scientific facts need to be shared as widely as possible”

          BULLSHIT.

          You never take any of the FACTS you get here anywhere else.

          You just continue your little fantasy bed-wetting where-ever you go.

          What SHOULD the level of Arctic sea ice be, griff..

          or are you as COWARDLY as your slimate, Jimbo !

        • richard verney says:

          Griff

          I am pleased that you post here, but it would be advantageous if you were to consider carefully some of the points made to you, rather than repeatably regurgitating the same distorted conclusions based upon inadequate data or data not fit for scientific purpose.

          • AndyG55 says:

            I’m also pleased he posts here.

            It gives us a chance to highlight just how anti-knowledge and anti-science the well below average AGW proponent really is.

    • RAH says:

      What’s that smell. Somebody fart in here again? Oh! It’s just Jim back again.

    • Phil Jones says:

      I read Jim’s link and its pathetic.. Says nothing..

      Recommend all skeptics read Hunt’s piece and post ..

      • gator69 says:

        … its pathetic.. Says nothing..

        So it is a great representation of its owner. Color me shocked and amazed.

      • Colorado Wellington says:

        Phil,

        I read some of his stuff long time ago. It was pathetic then and based on his silly contributions here I have no reason to believe it changed. His role on this blog is similar to that of Ms Griff. They may even be the same person. He’s been known to use other handles to multiply himself and circumvent other blog owners’ ban.

        Thanks for reading his White Con stuff so others don’t have to.

      • AndyG55 says:

        ” I read Jim’s link ”

        You must have a stronger stomach than I have. I felt like puking last time I visited that sewer of LIES and DECEITFUL misinformation.

    • AndyG55 says:

      Jimbo, you cowardly worm.

      I have asked you before.

      What SHOULD the current level of Arctic sea ice be?

      Should it be up with the extremes of the LIA?

      or should it be lower than now , like during the MWP , or even lower, with much more open Arctic seas, like the first 7000+ years of the Holocene.

      Why are you SUCH A SNIVELLING COWARD, that you refuse to answer. !

      • richard verney says:

        Isn’t it exactly what it should be. Certainly, there is no cogent reason to consider otherwise.

        But it is a pity that there is quite so much of the white stuff. A return to the conditions seen in the Holocene Optimum would be a blessing.

        • AndyG55 says:

          It sure would. :-)

          The OPPORTUNITIES for commerce, travel, fishing, drilling etc etc , would be ENORMOUS !

          Unfortunately, the sun is having snooze, and the AMO is turning down from its natural 10 year flat high.

          It look like the people trying to live up there will have to struggle with high levels of sea ice for a few more decades, at least.

  2. Nor are Ecological National Socialists anywhere near a majority of holders of regular college degrees in science. Nor did anti-energy luddites “win” the popular vote in November. The Libertarian + GOP total was way larger than the Dem + CPUSA + Green total in the popular vote. The American people are simply not buying econaziism, no matter how popular it is in the countries that welcomed and surrendered to the previous brand of National Socialism.

    • arn says:

      I you wanna know how popular econazism is,
      just ask yourself:

      When they even loose with all this indoctrination,intimidation+namecalling and protesting Soros-boys,
      with all the MSM behind them pushing the Agenda,
      -how high would they loose in a balanced fight?(1/3 of media being against carbon tax ,1/3 undecided,1/3 pro carbon tax etc)

      I thin

  3. Latitude says:

    “8th lowest on record.”

    This always makes me laugh….like it’s some doom and gloom…when 8 times in the past it’s been lower
    …using that metric it’s improving

    • gator69 says:

      And 8th out of how many years exactly?

    • arn says:

      The funny thing is:they never talk about how small their record in fact is.
      It always sound like some superlongtermdata + a track record of many centuries.
      While in fact there is just one interessting question:

      Since when are there satellites in space constantly observing
      the arctic and delivering the necessary data.

      • Griff says:

        since 1979 as a continuous record.

        That’s 38 years worth.

        Plus collated records going back to 1850 from multiple sources…

        • gator69 says:

          Here we see the absolute and uncorruptable dishonesty of Ms Griff on dislpay once again. She knows very well that 1979 is a cherry pick used to fool the ignorant into thinking there is a problem in the Arctic. She lies because she loves her agenda more than the poor brown people whom she helps starve to death through her alarmism.

          Disgusting.

        • sunsettommy says:

          Griff, the record goes back to 1964,via the NIMBUS Satellite set up, but continuous coverage since 1973.

          Stop with your lies kid!

          Back to 1850’s flimsy records has long been shown to be lacking sufficient resolution,you know this as you were answered by several scientists on WUWT earlier this year.

          Stop pushing it,as it is not adequate.Stop promoting it as something beyond being scattered sparse records in small parts of the region.

          Just stop lying.

        • AndyG55 says:

          We know the late 1970’s was an EXTREME HIGH level of sea ice.

          We also know that the current level is above what it has been for 90-95% of the last 10,000 years.

          IFF there is a problem with current levels of sea ice its that ..

          THERE IS STILL ONE HECK OF A LOT of the stuff !!

          You yap mindlessly about sea ice death spirals and are constantly there with your chicken-little bed-wetting, about a minor loss of sea ice, so answer this question, you moronic retard….

          What do you think the current level of sea ice should be, griff?

          Up there with the extremes of the LIA and late 1970s

          or less than now like during the MWP,

          or far less like during the first 3/4 or so of the last 10,000 years.

          ANSWER , griff, if you have the guts

  4. Ron Clutz says:

    While 2017 Arctic ice started the year below average, it recovered in May and continues to match the ice extent average for the last 10 years. Which suggests, as in the post above this year’s minimum will likely end up in the middle of the pack. Unless, of course some major weather happens to damage the ice, giving rise to claims of “climate change.”

    MASIE update here: https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2017/09/03/arctic-ice-september-strong/

  5. Griff says:

    This is just fantasy… 2012 was an all time record…

    So 2017 not being as bad as the all time record is a stunning recovery or something?

    I posted the ice thickness charts for 2012, 2016 and 2017 on one of these articles last week… go check them out.

    compared to 2012 there’s barely any ice of 2m or more left… and the extent in the chart above which is ‘greater’ than 2102 is riddled with more holes than a swiss cheese…

    https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_visual.png

    • sunsettommy says:

      Griff,

      You have a hard time comprehending the obvious here.

      Read this very slowly………,

      Since 2007,there has been NO MORE DECLINE,it has stopped declining anymore.

      http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/images/sea_ice_only_small.jpg

      No one here is saying it is in full recovery trend,that is a lie coming from you.

      Stop using the Red Herring argument!

      • griff says:

        The extent varies, but the trend is down…

        Especially when you look at volume, amount of old thick MYI ice and ice thickness.

        • AndyG55 says:

          The trend is NOT down in the last 10 years

          You are LYING again , griff

          What SHOULD the level of Arctic sea ice be?

          If you can’t tell us what it SHOULD be then all you bed-wetting is just more fantasy based nonsense

          Should it be up there with the EXTREMES of the LIA or

          should it be lower than now, like during the MWP ,… or

          should it be MUCH LOWER than now as during the first 7000 or so years of the Holocene.

    • gator69 says:

      Ms Griff thinks that 38 years is “all time”.

      It’s that, or she hates poor brown people.

      • sunsettommy says:

        Griff lies freely here since,thus warmist turd has been shown many times that earlier in the interglacial period,Sea ice levels was little to ZERO ice in the Summer. That one such period lasted for THOUSANDS of years!

        “This is just fantasy… 2012 was an all time record…

        So 2017 not being as bad as the all time record is a stunning recovery or something?”

        This warmist turd,is pushing a Red Herring since no one here is saying there is a big recovery trend going on right now.

        Many say it is no longer dropping anymore, that some say,soon the the AMO will go into a long trend dive,that will promote a recovery. That is what some are saying here.

        That is in the FUTURE tense,you blathering moron!

        Stop the LYING!!!

        • gator69 says:

          Stop the genocide.

        • griff says:

          Absolutely that’s true – zero summer ice around the start of the Eemian.

          but the reason for that was the (state of the then) Milankovitch cycle.

          We don’t have the same orbital set up today – so there has to be another reason why we have low sea ice.

          • AndyG55 says:

            Eemian was 125,000 years ago you moron. !!

            Since then we had a major ice age !!

            FFS, get something correct in your miserable non-existence..

          • AndyG55 says:

            It is duly noted that griff is as much of a COWARD as Jimbo the slimo.

            Continues to post moronic garbage, but slithers away from a simple question.

            What a PATHETIC, ZERO-SCIENCE, non-entity he really is.

            .

      • Cam says:

        STOP WITH THE POOR BROWN PEOPLE MEME!!!

        It is bloody irritating.

        • gator69 says:

          A rare bird you are. Does your own life irritate you? Lucky I guess…

          • Colorado Wellington says:

            Cut him some slack. He may just have a bad day.

            I know Progressives who told me Simon Wiesenthal, Natan Sharansky and Ayaan Hirsi Ali were and are not just irritable but bloody intolerable.

        • griff says:

          hey, let him carry on.

          It doesn’t bother me… and every time he posts it, it shows he hasn’t got an argument based on science.

          Besides, I’ve pointed out to him all sorts of people- poor, brown, US citizens and Inuit – are already suffering from the effects of climate change and he doesn’t care…

          • AndyG55 says:

            You have ZERO science, just chicken-little IGNORANCE

            You DENY anything at counters you MYOPIC bed-wetting fever.

            Arctic sea ice levels are ABOVE what they have been for 90-95% of the last 10,000 year

            ADMIT the fact… or be for ever marked as a manic CLIMATE CHANGE DENIER.

            Then answer this question , griff. (or slide back into your crevasse)

            “What SHOUD the level of Arctic sea ice be.

            Should it be up there with the EXTREMES of the LIA or

            should it be lower than now, like during the MWP ,… or

            should it be MUCH LOWER than now as during the first 7000 or so years of the Holocene.

            Waiting for you to continue to RUN and HIDE.

          • AndyG55 says:

            “based on science.”

            BASED ON SCIENCE.

            griff is a SCIENCE DENIER.

            And a CLIMATE CHANGE DENIER.

            See the graph , griff.

            SCIENCE…… do you DENY it… ?

          • gator69 says:

            Ms Griff, I destroyued your “science” months ago, and I moved on to destroying your chachter. A small job, but one that illusgtrates the ev il rthat is the dcoomer cult od CAGW.

            You work to starve millions to death each and every day, while I work to save them.

            I’ve pointed out to him all sorts of people- poor, brown, US citizens and Inuit – are already suffering from the effects of climate change and he doesn’t care…

            Bullshit! Nobody is suffering from a milder climate! But millions are starving to death because you and your genocidal maniac friends divert funds away from them based upon false claims.

            You are a f*cking liar and an accomplice to genocide.

            These were the bad projects. As you might see the bottom of the list was climate change. This offends a lot of people, and that’s probably one of the things where people will say I shouldn’t come back, either. And I’d like to talk about that, because that’s really curious. Why is it it came up? And I’ll actually also try to get back to this because it’s probably one of the things that we’ll disagree with on the list that you wrote down.

            The reason why they came up with saying that Kyoto — or doing something more than Kyoto — is a bad deal is simply because it’s very inefficient. It’s not saying that global warming is not happening. It’s not saying that it’s not a big problem. But it’s saying that what we can do about it is very little, at a very high cost. What they basically show us, the average of all macroeconomic models, is that Kyoto, if everyone agreed, would cost about 150 billion dollars a year. That’s a substantial amount of money. That’s two to three times the global development aid that we give the Third World every year. Yet it would do very little good. All models show it will postpone warming for about six years in 2100. So the guy in Bangladesh who gets a flood in 2100 can wait until 2106. Which is a little good, but not very much good. So the idea here really is to say, well, we’ve spent a lot of money doing a little good.

            And just to give you a sense of reference, the U.N. actually estimate that for half that amount, for about 75 billion dollars a year, we could solve all major basic problems in the world. We could give clean drinking water, sanitation, basic healthcare and education to every single human being on the planet. So we have to ask ourselves, do we want to spend twice the amount on doing very little good? Or half the amount on doing an amazing amount of good? And that is really why it becomes a bad project. It’s not to say that if we had all the money in the world, we wouldn’t want to do it. But it’s to say, when we don’t, it’s just simply not our first priority.

            http://www.ted.com/talks/bjorn_lomborg_sets_global_priorities/transcript?language=en

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dtbn9zBfJSs

            Their deaths are on your head Missy.

        • gator69 says:

          Cam, this is why I continue to ask Ms Griff why she hates poor brown people. She claims to want to tackle climate change because of the alleged devastating effects natural climate change has on humanity this past century. But this is a lie. If she truly wanted to help human beings, she would ditch her CAGWBS and work to divert funding where it belongs.

          For decades conservatives and skeptics have been told that they hate poor brown people. I am inundated with this BS sevral times daily, and nothing could be further from the truth. I send a regular monthly donation to a charity that does nothing but save the starving in the worst parts of the world. I have done this for many years now and it pisses me off to hear holier-than-thou leftists, who are willing to kill hundreds of millions for their sick twisted totalitarian agendas, lie and cheat and conspire to smear those of us who are doing the right things for the right reasons.

          I have also found that fence sitters who are not genocidal leftist a-holes (the majority of fence sitters are simply good people with bad info) respond very well to logic. Once you explain that CAGWBS is a vehicle for genocide, and paraphrase what Lomborg said in his TED talk, fence sitters become skeptics without having to spend years explaining the fraudulent “science” that is CAGW. Even 99% of those who believe that man is responsible for changing the climate (Lomborg, as an example) are smart enough to know that you do not starve hunmdreds of millions of innocent humans to death for a few hundredths of a degree of temperature change over a century or more.

          Genocide Jim and Ms Griff need to be tarred and feathered with their hatred of poor brown people at every turn, until nobody wants to hear from them ever again.

          You are better than your comment Cam.

          • Mark Fife says:

            Absolutely! I have been called every name in the book because I “don’t care” about what happens to these poor people. Yet, one stupid edict by GW drove rice prices up and caused real world deaths in south east Asia in the name of costly renewables. A cash bonanza to big corporate growers of corn in the US which thanks to NAFTA and farm supplements helped create a new decimation of small farmers in central America. The costs of this march to stupidity are mainly visited upon the poorest people on the planet. When I see Al Gore and Leonardo jetting around the world lobbying to keep people using dung, grass, and wood to cook their food and warm their homes it makes me want to puke. Realizing every tin pot despot in the world has a plethora of Al Gores just dying to grab their share of that AGW pie like the Paris accord makes me thankful Trump won and Hillary lost.

    • Gerald Machnee says:

      Griff – answer my questions above.

    • rw says:

      So why on earth did the Crystal Serenity need 2 icebreakers this year to complete their cruise?

      So on the basis of all these data do you agree with Wadhams that next year we’ll see the meltdown to 1 M km2? (At some time the minimum ice extent will have to show some relation with this devastating loss of volume.)

      • AndyG55 says:

        And why didn’t they use the route taken by Larsen in 1944 and the SS Manhattan in 1969. (totally blocked still this year)

        These two petals, Jimbo and griff really don’t have the slightest clue what they are talking about.

        The absolutely DENY the scientific fact that current levels of Arctic sea ice are FAR greater than they have been for most of the last 10,000 year.

        Acceptance of the FACT that current levels are just a tiny amount down from the absolute maximum of the whole Holocene would totally ruin their whole reason for living. !

    • AndyG55 says:

      This is just fantasy… 2012 was an all time record…

      FFS, griff , stop your MORONIC NONSENSE. !!!

      The world did not start in the late 1970s when sea ice was near its maximum level since the LIA

      The current level is above what it has been for 90-95% of the last 10,000 years. The first 7000+ years of the Holocene often has mostly zero summer sea ice.

      I know you have to maintain your FANTASY, so you have a reason for your constant bed-wetting.. a nice slimy sleep-over with Jimbo?

      But you are seriously getting way passed a MINDLESS JOKE !!

      • griff says:

        No matter what went before, the conditions from 1979 can be different and from different causes to before…

        The ice is lower than its lowest recorded extent in the period from 1979 back to 1850 (limit of useful records examined in detailed research)

        • AndyG55 says:

          griff is IGNORANT that 1850 was at the end of the Little Ice Age, the COLDEST period in 10,000 years

          What SHOULD the level of Arctic sea ice be?

          Should it be up there with the EXTREMES of the LIA or

          should it be lower than now, like during the MWP ,… or

          should it be MUCH LOWER than now as during the first 7000 or so years of the Holocene.

          Bet you duck and weave, and avoid answering as ALL cowardly AGW tips**ts do.

        • AndyG55 says:

          1850 was the end of the Little Ice Age, you moronic twit.

          That spike at the end.. LIA.

          MWP, well below now.

          First 7000+ years of Holocene, even lower !!

          You are a CLIMATE CHANGE DENIER, griff

          DENY all you want, it only makes your posts all the more idiotic, for EVERYONE to see.

    • AndyG55 says:

      And since you cannot help your bed-wettingand think there is something wrong with Arctic sea ice then answer this question..

      WHAT SHOULD THE CURRENT LEVEL OF ARCTIC SEA ICE BE?

      Should it be up there with the extremes of the LIA and late 1970s

      or less than now like during the MWP,

      or far less like during the first 3/4 or so of the last 10,000 years.

      Come on griff, or jimbo.. have some guts and answer the question.

      You know its only just a small amount down from its highest peaks in 10,000 years.. do you think that is were it should stay.. near its 10,000 year maximum?

  6. AndyG55 says:

    Just saw this on WUWt

    “this cold was caused by the anthropogenic global warming and could be the starting of a new glacial age.”

    Cognitive dissonance, anyone ???

  7. Bryce Pettit says:

    I read the article from The Guardian at the end, and in the comments section someone referenced arctic ice in 1979. That’s convenient. Just so happens that’s when we got our first satellite photos of arctic ice and it was at the end of a long cooling period. I guess the alarmist goobers think we’re so stupid we don’t know these facts? Using the amount of ice in 1979 as natural and normal is exceedingly deceitful.

    • tonyheller says:

      There are plenty of satellite photos of Arctic ice going back to the 1960s. We sent men to the moon in 1969.

    • griff says:

      This article will point you to detailed research using ALL available evidence on the past state of the ice (looked at records back to 1850).

      https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-piecing-together-arctic-sea-ice-history-1850

      The conclusions from the research?

      “First, there is no point in the past 150 years where sea ice extent is as small as it has been in recent years. Second, the rate of sea ice retreat in recent years is also unprecedented in the historical record. And, third, the natural fluctuations in sea ice over multiple decades are generally smaller than the year-to-year variability.”

      • AndyG55 says:

        1850 was the end of the LIA, you MORONIC IDIOT !!

      • AndyG55 says:

        See that peak on the diagram

        Go and dry your bed-sheets again, mindless twerp..

        they are sopping wet !

      • sunsettommy says:

        Your link is full of holes, you missed the obvious with the 1926 DMI maps,which are mostly fabricated.

        The article doesn’t even try to show continuous sea ice data,it is created out of sparse information.

        You are pathetic!

  8. RAH says:

    I’ve been checking out the weather outside of the Arctic circle and it’s looking like we here in the US are in for a cold and snowy one and so is Europe.

    After a cooler and wetter than average summer for about everyone in the US except those that live in the NW states, it looks like frost on the pumpkin will occur earlier this year than usual. Already there has been a light dusting of snow at the higher elevations of the Adirondack mountains in NY.  Upper Minnesota and Upper Michigan have already had hard frosts.  Sept. 2nd places in  OH, CT, PA, NY, IL, NJ and RI set new record lows and a couple of new record low highs (IOW the high temperature for the day was lower than any previously recorded). The water temperature of the Great Lakes is running 2 to 3 degrees below the average for this time of year.  Snow has already been accumulating along the Quebec-Labrador border. 
    https://www.iceagenow.info/mother-nature-skipps-fall-goes-straight-winter/#more-22312
    Meanwhile over in Europe there have already been heavy accumulating snows in the Alps down to the 1,800 meter level.  The Zugspitze, the highest mountain in Germany but a baby compared to many other mountains in the Alps, has snow accumulation on it already.  They’ll be skiing up there in no time.
    http://www.wetteronline.de/wetterticker?postId=post_201709021081333
    (wait for the video to load).

  9. richard verney says:

    Since it is relevant to this post, I will once again make some observation on Arctic temperatures.

    There has been no global warming in the vicinity of Greenland for nigh on 80 years.

    Both Greenland and Iceland show the 1940s as their warmest period during the time of the thermometer record (when RAW temperature data is used).

    Hadcrut area weighted 70deg to 90 degN shows that 2016 has a 27 month smoothing anomaly figure of + 1degC and 1936 and 1944 had a similar + 1 degC anomaly.

    If one takes out the smoothing, Hadcrut shows 1936 with a + 7degC anomaly and 2015 with a + 4 degC anomaly (2016 being cooler than 2015). See;

    http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Arctic-Temperatures-1920-2017-HadCRUT4.jpg

    If one looks at the 24 year period between 1922 and 1946, and compare this to the 24 year period between 1992 and 2016, and note the number of years where there has been around a + 4degC anomaly, one notes that during the period 1922 to 1946 there are 12 years with this or greater anomaly (ie., half the period) whereas during the period 1992 to 2016 there are only 6 such years.

    It is clear that it was generally considerably warmer in the Arctic during the period 1922 to 1946 than it is during the recent period 1992 to 2016. Not only are there more + 4 degC anomalies during the earlier period, the peak anomalies are higher.

    It is quite clear from this that if there is any material ice loss in the Arctic it is not due to global warming, simply because there has been no material warming in the Arctic region over the course of the past 95 years.

    One can see from the Hadcrut record that there is absolutely no correlation between temperatures and CO2, and further during the period when manmade emissions started escalating, late 1940s on wards ,generally temperatures in the Arctic have been cooler than they were prior to the date of escalation, ie., during the period prior to the late 1940s.

    Griff wants to know how can the sea ice have declined since 1979 is if wasn’t any warmer?

    the answer to this question is Simple.

    The decline in sea ice is not due to warmer air temps, but rather due to variations in warm currents and wind/storminess.

    Further, of course, on a historic basis there has not been the decline in sea ice that Griff imagines that there has been.

    There is more sea ice now than there was in the 1920s. That is why the recent Pen Hadow sailing expedition came to a freezing halt and could go no further than “80 degrees 10 minutes North, 148 degrees 51 minutes West, reached at 22:04:12 (Alaskan Time, GMT-9hours) on 29 August 2017 by yachts, Bagheera and Snow Dragon II.” Likewise, it is why the earlier British rowing expedition got blocked by ice on 10th August 2017 just off the North West coast of Svalbard at about 79°55’50” N.

    Whereas, in 1922 the Norwegian Department of Commerce sent an expedition that reached 81°29’ North. This is more than 1 deg further North, and the expedition was not blocked by ice. It still reported ice free waters.

    The contemporaneous newspaper report is set out:

    https://biasedbbc.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ice2.jpg

    The fact is that there has been quite a lot of multidecadal variation in temperatures, but overall there has been no warming, and today the sea ice is not substantially less than it was in the 1920s. This is also borne out by the Vinnikov et al 1980 paper (Vinnikov is one of the three lead authors of the first IPCC report Chapter 7 dealing with climate variability).

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.