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The arctic is getting hard.
I guess the reason that not one of the plotted years is included in the average is because everything has been unprecedented since 2006. Welcome to the brave new world of math.
New sea ice to be blamed on CO2 in 3…2…1.
We are probably one major volcanic eruption away from another year without a summer. Fuel Oil futures.
And having losts of ice at the North Pole is important because…er,…because it is.
Haha.. Yeps, and it’s in a death spiral.. er.. upwards 😉
The Liars® will be along any time now to make themselves look foolish again. Or they will be silent about the great recovery.
What me?
Not in less you brought your relatives.
Many many people are quite pleased that snow is a thing of the past, and the possibility of receiving snow on November 10th is a zero possibility;-)
http://www.weather.com/weather/alerts/localalerts/USMI0357?phenomena=WS&significance=W&areaid=MIZ005&office=KMQT&etn=0009
When they get to work on Monday, that will be adjusted. Nevertheless, the day when it can’t be explained away is coming. And the clowns at the PSC are going to have some serious explaining to do:
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1.png
Wow! Just look at where that Arctic sea Ice is headed. IT COULD GET INTERESTING.
Something is not right. The other graphs on the Watts sea ice page don’t show that spike. In fact they appear to be slowing in the last few days. Granted that surprised me since it seems plenty cold/below ave. up north. But I am just a casual observer.
Assume most of us here know this and permit us to dream a little. It will be fixed in due time. Also, go to earth.nullschool.net and loo,k at the wind direction and SSTs over near Alaska and Siberia to understand the slowing.
LexingtonGreen, I would somewhat agree with you. Seems all of these ice graphs differ quite a bit. Becomes difficult to really determine what the “story” is. I typically find this site [http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/] a good source for things of the icy nature.
While I don’t find exactly what Tony presents here, all things do seem to indicate that we are not going to lose ice at either pole any time soon. And quite frankly, losing all of the ice in the Arctic doesn’t mean squat anyway, as it has happened before, and it will surely happen again.
The graphs are from the same source http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/. One is ssmi1_ice_area.png, the other ssmi1_ice_ext.png. Area vs. extent.
OMG, the ice age is coming.
I’m guessing that will appear as part of the unfiltered noise in future updates.
-Scott
It’s already been done.
gator69’s comment implies a somewhat subtle math concept. From the following link: “The mean has one main disadvantage: it is particularly susceptible to the influence of outliers. These are values that are unusual compared to the rest of the data set by being especially small or large in numerical value.”
https://statistics.laerd.com/statistical-guides/measures-central-tendency-mean-mode-median.php
Many of the years NOT used in the average and thus not contributing to the gray band are “outliers” from the years that are used (1979-2006). If these recent years were to be included in the analysis the gray band (+/- one standard deviation) would be lower, as would the dotted line in the center of the gray.
LexingtonGreen’s comment suggests the red line is “not right”. But assuming it is, if all the years were included that red line (likely) would be above average.
That would be very inconvenient – Calling Al Gore . . .
I’m pulling for the Ice Fairs to be revived when the Thames freezes over again. 🙂
Then again, with so much warm water being pumped into the river from upstream and as it passes through Londonistan, it’ll have to be some particularly frigid weather to freeze it over. But, given that the Brits have pretty much sealed their fate with their idiotic Algorean energy policies, much of that previously-warm water may go cold again when the massive rolling blackouts start.
PS: Does anyone know if there’s been any studies done on how much Great Lakes ice has been impacted by the constant ice-breaking that goes on in order to keep the shipping lanes open? One would imagine that the modern ice levels would have been at least slightly higher, had the ice sheets been left intact and not broken up so that they could be moved around by the wind and broken up even further.
It seems that mankind contributed to the freezing of the Thames. .. Due to changes made to the river since the early 1800s, it is now unlikely to freeze completely, even if there is another ‘little ice age’.
1) . The bridges, weirs, and locks were responsible for slowing the Thames River.
…. “During that time the British winter was more severe than now, and the river was wider and slower, and impeded by Old London Bridge.” (…/wiki/River_Thames_frost_fairs)
…. “This was the last frost fair [1814]. The climate was growing milder; old London Bridge was demolished in 1831 and replaced with a new bridge with wider arches, allowing the tide to flow more freely;[17] and the river was embanked in stages during the 19th century, **all of which made the river less likely to freeze**.” (Ref. as above.)
…. “When the old London Bridge was demolished in 1832, the removal of the palisades, constructed to protect the bridge, resulted in the tides on the Thames rising and falling far more rapidly than they had done.” (…/wiki/Richmond_Lock_and_Footbridge)
The removal of a later version of the London Bridge also helped to increase the flow of water. Ice does not form as easily when the water is moving!
…. “London Bridge is a bridge in Lake Havasu City, Arizona, United States. It is a relocated 1831 bridge that formerly spanned the River Thames in London, England, until it was dismantled in 1967.” (…/wiki/London_Bridge_(Lake_Havasu_City) ..)
2) …. “There are 45 locks on the river, each with one or more adjacent weirs.” (…/wiki/Locks_and_weirs_on_the_River_Thames)
The locks and weirs are used to control the flow of water down the river, to make it navigable for boats, and reduce the risk of flooding. It is conceivable that the locks could be opened to *increase the flow if there was ever a risk of the river freezing.
In re Great Lakes icebreaking. Almost none. Lake Michigan averages 60 miles wide. The icebroken path is at most two ships wide, on a line from lake Superior to Gary Indiana. The path is only used by the iron ore freighters from the Mesabi range in Minnesota to the steel mills at the south end of Lake Michigan, closer to the Illinois coal fields.
Thanks B.C.
Along the naming lines of the Permian, we’ll all now refer to the years from 1990 to 2020 as the Algorean, where otherwise (supposedly) intelligent organisms suffered temperature catastrophies in their wet dreams.
There’s nothing bad about the graph that can’t (and won’t) be “corrected” with adjustments as yet unannounced. Death Spiral Barbie (Julienne) will announce after the fact.
I don’t believe ANY NH ice graph is correct. If you look closely (project for SG), its most likely that they have been “adjusting” The borders of each section (ie Barents sea ect), from way back to suit the AGW agenda as well as the baseline periods to do same. This CANNOT be done in Antarctica (one mass), That’s why SH ice is probably spot on and NH ice is just drivel (probably has not melted (except 2007), as they purport to show. Just watch what they will start doing with NH ice IF it even appears to be getting over the line
I’ve had similar concerns, but I suspect that it is quite a bit harder to fake sea ice than temperature anomalies. Actual photographs exist, for instance. I wonder whether it is within the ability of someone outside a national weather service to audit sea ice reports.
Calculating sea ice extent requires a model. Different people use different models.
It’s really great that the alarmists tied cold winters to decreasing arctic ice because it has only taken a couple years for there to be large increases in arctic ice. Alarmists now avoid making short-term predictions since long term predictions cannot be proven false in the short term, yet in attempting to tie together extant weather phenomena to explain and claim them, they implicitly make short term predictions which can quickly be shown to be false, since the connections were merely correlational to begin with.
If it does get convincingly colder over the next few years watch for this claim: While we were wrong about the effect, we were right about the cause: It’s man what’s made the climate turn cold. The fix, as before, is deindustrialization, de-democratization, vastly increased taxation and regulation, innumerable climate conferences, op-eds, selfless TV appearances and whatnot.
That’s pretty interesting, especially since OSISAF is showing the ice actually jackknifing downward pretty sharply. http://osisaf.met.no/p/ice_extent_graphs.php