A reminder that there was a time when climate scientists actually did science.
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The next 5 years is going to be very interesting.
Amazing – I haven’t seen that before. Using tree rings too.
If she only knew about a stand of Magical Bristlecone Pine trees that are teleconnected to global climate during the past and future, she could have been 100% wrong, but would have won a Noble Prize.
“Mighty hoax, from tiny bristlecones grow”?
Lovely! Nice image…can I pinch it?
hmmmm. Just about got it right the first time and then never heard from again .
Little Ice Ages??
But they did not exist!
They did before Post-Normal revisionists got into the game.
So where do you think big ice ages come from?
It takes big ice ages to make little ice ages. They multiply like rabitts!
Actually the mini Ice Age did exist and it lasted from the 1400’s up until about 1860 (+/-) It got so cold that it drove the Norsemen out of Greenland. Europe got very cold and you can see it’s evidence in the winter art scenes of it’s day, showing the Thames River in London frozen over. The Dutch skating on the canals etc etc. About 1860 things started warming and with some ups and downs it cont to warm until about 2004 (+/-) Now according to the ARGOS ocean temp program since about 2004 the temp of the oceans have been dropping ever so slightly but dropping non the less. This would indicate that we are n o longer warming but have started to cool. Perhaps it’s just a clitch or perhaps it is indeed Climate doing what it always does…. Change. For some real eye opening climatic info go to
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtevF4B4RtQ Pretty amazing stuff. Not only amazing what is being said, but also who is saying it!!! The clip is about 1hr + long but well worth the time.
Beware of Coolers & Warmers that wont pay attention to ALL the data.
Steve,
This would make for a great “where are they now?” story. Did they tire of being rejected by “peer reviewed” journals? Or, did they lose their funding because they would not accept the magical properties of a trace gas — carbon dioxide?
And May I say, Holy Crap !
http://www.lths.net/LT_Tradition/Hall_of_Fame/Inductees/libby.html
“She stayed at New York University as a professor of Physics until 1964 when she moved to Colorado to become a professor of Physics at Colorado University until 1973. Dr. Libby then went to University of California at Los Angeles where she was an adjunct professor of Environmental Studies, Engineering, Engineering Archaeology, Mechanical Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering.”
Read her bio. RIP
http://swst.metapress.com/content/068q18507586x624/
http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprintframed/71/6/2482
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v266/n5601/abs/266478a0.html
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/bk-1982-0176.ch014
Anyhow this lady was some real scientist . The other guy, I don’t know.
Seriously Dr. Libby worked with Leo Szilard and Enrico Fermi .
Her second husband won the Nobel Prize in 1960.
I got a little lost in the links, but now that you have dig up the clue Steve, it might be worth it to see the work,
since she was such a true heavy-weight.
Steven,
Wow, just wow what a find. This needs wide circulation, I’m really amazed at how she nailed it.
Fully agree with the previous commenters, this is a good article and a great find Steve.
This lady nailed it to the wall 32 years ago, while the pop scientists of the day were busy extrapolating forwards their current weather (much like today’s fraudsters) without even considering that things would soon change.
When you think about, all Climatology ‘research’ could have stopped right then and there in 1979. Many millions and billions should never have been spent. All subsequent research has really been nothing but socialism in disguise, an attempt at slavery using the weather as a foil.
Even long rangers like the great Joe Bastardi must marvel at this lady’s forecast.
This does need wide circulation. I’ll be linking back here for a long time.
This empirical approach makes sense if we expect a recurring pattern due to similar forcing. This may prove to be a poor approximation in the next century.
“may”? She’s already been proven right by the last 40 years, and Hansen and the IPCC proven wrong. If anything, this shows that we should base international power politics on Libby and not the IPCC. Hansen and the IPCC can continue taking guesses, THEY are the ones who deliver ALREADY FALSIFIED predictions; already falsified several times over.
I m buying me a very powerful heater… gas maybe, or Rossi’s e-Cat heater……….
Pretty much what Don Easterbrook has said.
If they are correct, this will cause far more world-wide problems than a small amount of beneficial warming !!
Great post Steve.
But the boys on the Fiddlestick Team would say:
“OK, so this study is really about a laboratory experiment.”
Real Climate: An incremental step blown up: Posted by Rasmus
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/05/an-incremental-step-blown-up/#more-7753
Pingback: Skeptic Strategy for Talking About Global Warming « Another View on Climate
The LIA resulted from a few tenths of a degree, and we’ve got 3 or 4 degrees downturn coming? Boy, we’re going to rue every nickel spent on idiot renewables, and start gouging everywhere we can for fossil fuels. Flamethrowers powered by frak-gas holding back the ice-sheets … Maximizing soot output in hopes it will land on the ice and snow.
The bind moggles.
I wonder if their trees were cut down with hockey sticks ?
That was the way real climate science was going at the time but a group of well funded state supported astrophysicists (and other miscellaneous non climate scientists) mostly involved in the space race via an overfunded NASA decided that there was a new ice age on the way and thus impliedly did not accept that there would be a late 20th century warming spell.
They hijacked climate science, ignored all that had gone before and went on about the imminent ice age that human aerosols were to cause.
Then, when the older guys turned out right and the late 20th century warming began those very same non climate scientist types wouldn’t admit any error, continued to sideline real climate science and flip flopped to human induced global warming from CO2 emissions.
Then the older guys turned out right again as that warming trend stalled from around 2ooo so again the charlatans refused to acknowledge error and turned their attention to political influence, misinformation and social pressure to cover up their failures for as long as possible. Or at least until their pensions were secured.
That will be the epitaph for climate science in the late 20th century
Prediction: Warming trend until year 2000, then very cold
So a wrong prediction then. According to UAH (and every other dataset) the 2001-2010 decade was the warmest (by far) on record.
What? A climate model that’s wrong? That’s unusual isn’t it?
Winter temperatures have plummeted during the last decade.
I know this is June and alarmists can’t remember anything that happened more than about 10 minutes ago. That requires actually having brain function.
UAH records only go back to 1979. The 1930’s was the warmest decade for which we have thermomoeter readings.
Of course the frauds adjusted the temperatures down for the 1930’s and added heat to recent records.
http://www.c3headlines.com/fabricating-fake-temperatures.html
Seems to me that these scientists made the fatal mistake of interpreting the evidence before they decided what the results would be/Sarc
Brilliant
http://aeroculus.blogspot.com/2007/08/from-my-umberto-ecos-antilibrary.html
She also wrote a book on the matter, as (briefly) reviewed here
I wonder if they just got their prediction wrong or whether something they didn’t take into account has prevented the downturn in temps of 1-2 degrees since 2000?
“So a wrong prediction then. According to UAH (and every other dataset) the 2001-2010 decade was the warmest (by far) on record”
The first decade after the natural peak of a several hundred year warming trend would be the warmest on record would it not?
We are now on the plateau at the top with the slide downwards ahead of us though there could be a couple more upturns before the slide proper.
Furthermre the warming trend did stop around 2000 so that part was spot on.
“The first decade after the natural peak of a several hundred year warming trend would be the warmest on record would it not?”
But not according to this prediction – it was expected to show a very marked fall in temperature.
The fact that 11 years on temps have yet to fall at all suggests something has gone seriously awry.
Winter temperatures have plummeted. In case you didn’t notice, the last few winters have been incredibly cold. Last December was the coldest on record where you live.
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/06/01/libby-and-pandolfi-were-correct/
They didn’t even need to hedge their bets with three scenarios and were still more accurate than more modern GCMs.
This is the Lough Neagh the largest lake in the UK & Ireland it was frozen solid (See link below), this happened once before in the 1960’s, this is real observable physical evidence that local winter temperatures have become colder. there are many similar real observable cases documented all over the Northern hemisphere as the temperatures have plummeted over the past several years.
As I now live in the country side I’ve noticed our water pipes would freeze the odd day every year with increasing frequency during winter, Last year the pipes froze for a week, early this year they froze for 3 weeks, that’s three weeks without clean water.
My own personal observations are not a scientific claim but thanks to reading blogs and websites like this one I had the common sense to fill a fue bottles of drinking water and a drum of water for domestic use. And I installed a cozy open coal fire. had I listened to advice from a alarmist man made global warming media about rising temperatures, this year I would have had to stand in line in below freezing temperatures for hours to collect water rations with thousands of other people.
Andy Mayhew You can believe what ever you want but sites like this and the reliable information being posted has been proven invaluable to me and my family, where as the multimillion pound/dollar tax payer funded meteorological warmest brigade and it’s media has been totally useless.
Extreme Lough Neagh Freeze, Ballyronan Marina – Part 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_lyLQvgSIM&feature=related
Extreme Lough Neagh Freeze, Ballyronan Marina – Part 2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRC2zTT3d7g&feature=related
Thousands queue for water in Northern Ireland After record freezing temperatures burst pipes.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newsvideo/8230306/Thousands-queue-for-water-in-Northern-Ireland.html
Fears of disease amid water crisis in Northern Ireland Caused by record freezing temperatures
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDhVO6eIxt8
A WEATHER WARNING TOO LATE
Britain will be engulfed by a second Arctic freeze over the weekend, stoking fears that thousands of homes could be without heating and mountains of presents could go undelivered over the Christmas period. Heavy snow storms will blast nearly every part of the UK at some point on Saturday and Sunday, with plummeting temperatures struggling to climb above freezing, forecasters said. Rocketing oil prices and restricted deliveries have already left families without fuel and the Government has warned the situation could become “very serious” if the cold weather persists. A backlog of around four million parcels could grow during the predicted cold snap, as private carriers struggle to overcome delays caused by the first spell of snow and ice. Heavy snow returned to northern Scotland and Northern Ireland overnight with parts of Wales and south-west England also being affected. Icy blizzards and temperatures as low as -6C caused major disruption on transport networks with police in the Scottish Highlands warning commuters not to travel. A section of the M2 in Northern Ireland was also closed due to heavy snow. The Met Office today issued heavy snow warnings for northern Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and south-west England. Widespread ice was also expected in most parts of the UK during the rush hour. Christmas deliveries have been hit hard with a number of internet retailers stopping deliveries in Scotland. Industry insiders said it could be the first year in which depots and offices do not clear all their gifts.
http://www.blinkx.com/watch-video/snow-heading-south/EZNg-LeO-U-ECHYfJ2uL6g
Wow! Leona Libby was a bit more educated and intelligent than climate scientists and in addition she understood what practical engineers do – Professor of Nuclear Engineering.
Great find Stephen
Steven,
One of the links in Jimash says: @ May 26, 2011 at 10:33 pm, above ,
will take you via a separate link to another Libby & Pandoldi study.
It’s from 1974, published in the Procedings of the National Acadamy of Science:
http://www.pnas.org/content/71/6/2482.full.pdf
Their “Temperature Dependence of Isotope Ratios in Tree Rings” notes:
This doesn’t rely in the slightest on ring size. It only looks at isotopic
signatures within each ring.
Their data may help calibrate the dates of the non-proprietary, unpublished,
Irish oak ring information taken by Mike Baillie, et al., of Queen’s University,
Belfast, now in the hands of Doug Keenan.
Other published studies over the past 25 years included oak tree rings
as proxies. The technique used in Libby & Pandoldi, 1974, may be useful in
calibrating with great specificity just what climate information those
rings were actually showing.
I have a problem : cold temperatures during the XVIIIth century, obviously a rotten period, climate-wise, and all those beautiful castles build in western Europe during the seventies?
“When she and Pandolfi project their curves into the future they show lower average temperatures from now through the mid-1980s”
How dare they use CURVES! Everyone knows climate only changes in straight lines that can be projected centuries into the future./ sarc
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
Here’s a site that shows temps NASA has collected.
Just like my old encycloppaedia of 1921 that says the mean average temp. at ground level is +14.4°C .
did i miss something? the article said that the temperature would start to get very cold after 2000, yet here we are over 10 years later, and all i can say is that every summer seems hotter than the last. summer as well as winter storms are the worst that i can remember, and those aren’t fed by cold temperatures.
The most comprehensive and insightful Climate Change book of the last twenty years is ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ (Alex S Gaddes, 1990.) This research debunks the forty year old BoM fantasy of El Nino and makes the case for the ultimate importance of Solar/Astronomical/Gravitational/Rotational influences in forming our climate/Weather, as a hierarchy of interrelated cycles.
It provides an extremely accurate mechanism for predicting the onset and duration of ‘Dry Cycles’ (Droughts) and provides insights into the causes and effects of volcanic and earthquake activity. An updated version of this book (including forecasts to 2055) is now available as a free PDF from dongaddes93@gmail .com
glc,
Does UAH give you comfort? Why not use RSS? 🙂
Glc expects an instant 2 degree drop on January 1, 2001. It will come in time. The lower atmosphere must first release the heat and it is slowing which will result in the surface temperature dropping, albeit with attempts to cover it up by NOAA and Met O.
No doubt you agree with Met O’s “adjustments” to Hadley’s SAT by applying Hansen’s fraudulent Arctic “data” to bump up the rest of the globe.
Question: How come Dr. Michael Mann didn’t pick up on this tree ring data?
Answer: He is pinning all his predictions on one Yamal Peninsula pine cone bristle # YAD061.