March 10, 2006:
This week researchers announced that a storm is coming–the most intense solar maximum in fifty years. The prediction comes from a team led by Mausumi Dikpati of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). “The next sunspot cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the previous one,” she says. If correct, the years ahead could produce a burst of solar activity second only to the historic Solar Max of 1958.
Like most experts in the field, Hathaway has confidence in the conveyor belt model and agrees with Dikpati that the next solar maximum should be a doozy. But he disagrees with one point. Dikpati’s forecast puts Solar Max at 2012. Hathaway believes it will arrive sooner, in 2010 or 2011.
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/10mar_stormwarning/
let’s check todays solar flux….FLAT!
http://solarcycle24.com/flux.htm
here’s a better one
http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png
To be fair, Dr Hathaway has acknowledged that this model is incorrect, and has revised his predictions downwards.
Still, it it a pretty stark comparison: the warning of the massive solar maximum vs. the almost spotless sun – spotless this deep (1 year) into SC24!
I guess even experts can fail in their predictions. I’d be interested to know what success rate they have had, if any.
Met O included solar activity for it’s model prediction in 2007. No mention of anything about 2011 dropping like a stone due to rapidly rising CO2 levels.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2007/pr20070810.html
Over the 10-year period as a whole, climate continues to warm and 2014 is likely to be 0.3 °C warmer than 2004. At least half of the years after 2009 are predicted to exceed the warmest year currently on record.
Spots do seem to be increasing though, 2009 had 260 spotless days and 2010 only 45.
Will be interesting to see what effect this has if any on the global temps.
Andy