What would happen to global warming if the sun quit producing sunspots for a few decades?
The question is of more than passing interest to climate scientists as they ponder the prospect that the sun may be about to enter such a period.
The coming flip of the sun’s magnetic field in a few months marks the peak of the current sunspot cycle – one that has produced the fewest sunspots in at least 100 years, and perhaps the last 200 years.
Peering at trends – or in some cases, the lack of them – in the sun’s behavior during the run-up to the current cycle’s peak, some solar physicists increasingly are considering the possibility that the sun may be on the verge of a “grand solar minimum,” comparable to a 70-year period running from the early 17th century into the early 18th century, when the sun produced no sunspots at all.
Could global warming be prelude to an Ice Age Alaska Dispatch
Reblogged this on Climate Ponderings.
Should be renamed the Oxymoron Monitor, right up there with Military Intelligence Weekly.
Still, it’s comforting to see how predictable they are.
Don’t shoot the messenger. The Oxymoron Monitor exists solely to satisfy the demand of all the morons out there – oxy and regular.
How long before we start to see stories that “The Great Global Warminng Scare of the Millenium” was all a myth?
Sorry – that won’t happen. What will happen is that in five years time, you’ll be sitting beside people who’ll say, “What ever happened to that global warming business? I haven’t heard about that for years.”
Shortly thereafter, the Senate will hold hearings from experts on how particulate pollution is causing global dimming. James Hansen Jr. – newly qualified climate scientist – will present a paper indicating that computer models predict with 95% certainty that we will create a snowball-Earth scenario within 100%, unless we de-industrialise immediately.
Only after Hansen, Mann, Al Gore and the rest of the “team” dies.
They’ll never admit they’re wrong.
“Science advances one funeral at a time.”
-Max Planck
No doubt it will have been predicted by the models.
Yes, once the data has been adjusted to fit the latest. moneymaking narrative.
The likelihood that the proposed cure for the coming Ice Age will be the same cure proposed for Global Warming Age. It will be totalitarian global governance, repeated one size fits all plans to be applied to all the developing nations, and redistribution of wealth from the “rich” nations to the “poor” nations as just compensation for past climate damage. The UN will be assigned the task of being the universal overseer to make sure the plans for alternate energy generation are followed to the letter and that no fossil fuel is used for anything. That is except for UN emergencies, conventions, investigation trips, and transport of denialists who survive their interrogation to the Siberian Gulags.
The Human Rights commission of the UN will be continued to be filled with the tyrants, dictators, war lords, and NGO thugs hoping to rake in the cash from it all. Although after technological civilization and the global economy has been destroyed, the cash they gather won’t be able to buy as much as a crust of moldy bread and a rusty tin of sewer water.
The motto will be: “Protecting the future by prohibiting change”.
The motto will be: “Protecting the future by prohibiting change”.
Any chance we could have a dry run with “Protecting the present by prohibiting hope and change”?
You may be right but at least I will be able to mock my warmist colleagues.
That is some consolation.
What everyone who posts here doesn’t understand is that we have lost the war. Academia and the media are tools of leftist propaganda. Data is irrelevant. Facts are dough to be manipulated in pursuit of a Marxist and misanthropic agenda. Little of what is said here reaches the masses. We preach to a choir of dozens, whilst the main stream media reach millions of uneducated, easily manipulated average men, and convince them through shear repetition of untruths of the current “state of the climate.” Our voices are mere whispers washed away in a sea of propaganda. Climate change will fade as the de facto crises of the day, only to be replaced by some other popular misanthropic fad. We are doomed. Let’s all meet and drink to what was, and what could have been. My place in NOLA, next Friday.
I’ll be there. Knock the top off a hemlock for me as well.
An outstanding although distressing comment.
Greg, your words ring sad but true. YET… our savior is the paid media. Advertising. Put together a massively financed to reach the people en masse, and bypass the liberal msm. And remember the libs always want “campaign finance reform” and limits on our ability to mount independent advocacy campaigns. Fight these leftist initiatives like the devil. Because paid media is the only place where we can level the playing field.
One thing, though. Our work here is important. We are making a difference, and a big one. The points and arguments we hash out here percolate up, as to key figures that can make our point. We provide the intellectual foundation for a growing sense that the warmists are full of it. And we saved the day as far as converting wayward conservatives. By 2009 conservatives had for the most part been duped by the warmists. But, by 2011, that had all changed, thanks largely to us, as conservatives had moved solidly into the skeptic camp.
If governments admit that climate is controlled by the sun they may finally understand that they can’t “Fix” the problem. Is it too much too hope that they will abandon their war on CO2 emissions and cheap energy?
What we need to get people to realize, is that it isn’t just a war on CO2 and inconsequential trace emissions, but a War on Prosperity; that has hijacked scientific and professional organizations, and brainwashed our children.
Have the two of you signed Steven’s petition?
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/08/16/sign-my-petition/
You’ll notice, in his reply to me, Steven encourages folks who don’t want to sign at whitehouse.gov to sign there on his blog page. Good idea!
By my count of the two sites (counting duplicates as one signature), we have 37 total signatures. We could use a lot more.
RTF
I wouldn’t be so surprised if at some point they try to “fix” the Sun… hehe.
I’ve got myself covered, I hope: pindanpost.com/2013/08/22/the-first-climate-refugee/
Blast, it’s a conspiracy, link missed, http://pindanpost.com/2013/08/22/the-first-climate-refugee/
Scare? It is hardly a scare but a predictable and predicted major cooling period. It is already happening but will accelerate significantly over the next couple of years.
To me the unpredictable part is exactly how the warmists are going to switch horses and try and persuade the tax paying masses that they (the warmists) were right all along as “we all know that global warming causes global cooling” so the people must now pay even more taxes to the World Government to get things warmed up by cutting carbon emissions.
Yes! They will try to do this.
They have no ethics so they’ll change horses as soon as it suits them.
The big question is — will anyone notice?
The headline has changed to:
“A cosmic correlation between northern lights and global warming?”
http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/20130821/amid-global-warming-another-little-ice-age-coming
We are doomed I tell you,doomed.We must produce as much co2 as we can to stop freezing to death.We owe it to our children and grandchildren.
?
Doctor Meehl approached the cave and thus spake the Model to him:
“In the Year 87 of Prophet Albert’s age the temperature will have risen again and 45 summers later the enlargement shall double. Rejoice, ye sinners, for the Ice Age Beast will have been vanquished. Now bring me myrrh and fleece and 13 Obama bumper stickers or I shall prophesize no more.”
The future isn’t what it used to be.
Seaside property will lose money again with up to 120 m sea level fall.(next 90,000 years) Luckily this will create space for the Canadian climate refugees.
CO2 is Global Cooling
http://youtu.be/S-eMtiTUD_g
20-20 hindsight is amazing! There are some Gems in this video, and as many rocks too! (at least he’s grinding some of them into dust ;-)).
Strange that he doesn’t link up to Ewing & Donn – they’d make a good combination and both then get much of it right. For a current update that covers much of whats missing – (draw your own conclusions), see: http://youtu.be/VjD-msS6Zoo
“.. some solar physicists increasingly are considering the possibility that the sun may be on the verge of a “grand solar minimum,” comparable to a 70-year period running from the early 17th century into the early 18th century, when the sun produced no sunspots at all.”
We will have two weak solar cycles in this current solar cycle phase catastrophe node, SC’s 24+25, these nodes occur every 10 solar cycles with varying intensity. If this was going to be comparable to Maunder, we should have had at least two solar cycles with near zero sunspots already.
weak sun ?
http://www.aemet.es/es/eltiempo/observacion/radiacion/ultravioleta?l=barcelona&f=anual
Yes weak Sun…
http://snag.gy/5r7rU.jpg
It’s beginning now, similar to the first 2-3 decades of the XVII century.
NASA says the polar fields will flip, but not even *that* is really known because the polar fields are behaving very differently from all previous studied cycles.
Leif Svalgaard also believes that we’re entering a “new Maunder” and the SSN could go to zero at the end of this decade.
Not even during the Dalton minimum the SSN reached…
In a couple of years we’ll know the truth.
.. the Dalton minimum the SSN reached zero …
The CSM piece may be the beginning of Ice Age alarmism, but the article itself is hardly anything more than continuation of AGW belief and fears:
“They assumed a 50-year sunspot hiatus presumed to run from 2020 to 2070. They used the solar cycles between 1965 and 2008 as their “normal” scenario, and temperature data from 1986-2005 as their temperature base. And both approaches used atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations that reach twice preindustrial levels by about 2070, then stabilize.
The team found that between 2026 and 2035, global average temperatures in the experiment would increase 0.80 degrees Celsius (1.4 degrees Fahrenheit) with normal solar activity, but only 0.64 degrees C [continued warming] assuming sunspots went into a long hibernation.
By 2040, the pace of warming begins to pick up in the grand-minimum scenario. Between 2065 and 2080, after the grand minimum ends, warming has reached 1.47 degrees C above 1986-2005 levels with normal solar activity and 1.32 degrees C in the grand-minimum scenario.
IOW, although it is recognizing a quiet sun, the article assumes a weak effect, continuing with the assumed (but never recorded) heat-trapping effect of CO2 overriding the solar minima as warming continues.
It raises the question, but then says, NAH! the warming will continue.
Hmmm. Html code novice here. I have too much bold going on up there.
Weak solar cycle’s 24 and 25 were predicted by Theodor Landscheidt. If this minimum occurs and his prediction holds it should be called the Landscheidt Minimum. http://www.landscheidt.info/
Sounds fair to me.:-)
Lack of sunspots = Global cooling
Many sunspots = Man made global warming
Got it.
You mean Mann made .
The record of past Ice Ages shows that we are about due for another Ice Age any Century now. Ice Ages are not nice things and result in a lot of the Northern Hemisphere being buried under thousands of metres of ice. We should be doing all we can to heat the Earth up now while we can to forestall the terror of an Ice Age coming upon us.
We are in a moderate low in insolation due to Earth’s orbital factors for the next 3-5 thousand years: http://www.leif.org/research/Solar-Insulation-Cycles.png
Potentially something worse than the 8.2Kyr event could easily happen in this period due to a similar run of weak solar cycles over a century or two, and the next such cold event cluster going by the best analogue that I know is from around 3000AD. The calculation is simply 6200BC plus 4627*2 yrs.
The models can use some best-guess factoring for orbital and solar influences, but use nothing for planetary rifting/short term plate separations due to seismic and plate movement activities.
The models are also absent of the planetary core peak-to-minimum temperature cycle and where we are within that cycle. The dynamo core peak-minimum cycle produces the magnetic shift to a minimum magnetic value, it’s orientation and the absolute reversal (these are hard times on planet earth).
What else are the models missing???
The fanatics at the church of Manmade Global Warming will never admit that Co2 is not driving the force in the climate. Even if we saw snow in Miami three years in a row they would claim that it was “predicted” as a temporary cooling trend. They will say that “the planet is warming but we just can’t find the heat.”
The fanatic adherents to the religion of Manmade Global Warming will never admit that the idea of Co2 driven warming was wrong. Just like those people who still think the world is flat there will be manmade warming fans who will also find all kinds of “scientific” snake oil to support their ideas.