Real Climate Science

I am considered a heretic by some on both sides of the global warming debate, because I refuse to tamper with the raw US data.

I have already shown why you can’t detect baseline tampering using anomalies, and thus should not use them. I have also shown how infilling missing data massively biases the US data towards warming over the past 20 years.

Now I am going to show why gridding is unimportant. The graph below shows my ungridded USHCN final averages in blue, and gridded NCDC temperatures in red.

The slope is almost identical, and the offset is probably mainly due to NCDC’s extra co-op stations. Gridding is unimportant for US data, because the stations are fairly evenly spaced, by design.

On the other hand, the data tampering being done by USHCN is huge. People on both sides of the debate should quit focusing on meaningless precision in tampered data, and instead focus on the huge inaccuracy created by tampering.

With large data sets with a random distribution of error (like missing data) real scientists do not attempt to make corrections. As soon as corrections start being made, the door is opened to confirmation bias at best – and it gets worse from there.

Leave the data alone. You are falling for an old NOAA mind trick.

As of 1975, there was nearly unanimous consensus among experts that the first half of the 20th century was exceptionally warm, and that temperatures had plummeted after 1940. In fact, by the late 1960s, temperatures were colder than they were in 1900.

The National Academy of Sciences published this graph, showing that the late 1960’s were cooler than the turn of the 20th century.

From 1900 to 1950, there was dramatic retreat of ice in the Northern Hemisphere

POLAR ICE THAW INCREASING  GLACIERS SAID TO BE MELTING

CLEVELAND, Feb. 16 (A.A.P.) Dr. William S. Carlson, an Arctic expert, said to-night that the Polar icecaps were melting at an astonishing and unexplained rate and were threatening to swamp seaports  by raising the ocean levels.

The glaciers of Norway and Alaska are only half the size they were 50 years ago. The temperature around Spitsbergen has so modified that the sailing time has lengthened from three to eight months of the year,” he said. ‘

18 Feb 1952 – POLAR ICE THAW INCREASING GLACIERS SAID TO [?] M…

The Courier-Mail  Monday 6 May 1940

Professor Ahlmann was speaking on the collated results of his expedition to north-east Greenland, and he stated that the glaciers there showed clear signs of a change towards a warmer climate. As had been observed in other parts of the Arctic, especially in Spitzbergen, the melting had increased rapidly. By far the largest number of local glaciers in northeast Greenland had receded very greatly during recent decades, and it would not be exaggerating to say that these glaciers were nearing a catastrophe.

06 May 1940 – Greenland’s Climate Becoming Milder

 

Continue reading →

The Germany-Ghana match was amazing, right up to the last second.

If you aren’t watching the Germany-Ghana match, you are missing football at its finest. Two very skillful teams with no fear.

STUDY FINDS WARMING TREND THAT COULD RAISE SEA LEVELS
By WALTER SULLIVAN
Published: August 22, 1981

A team of Federal scientists says it has detected an overall warming trend in the earth’s atmosphere extending back to the year 1880. They regard this as evidence of the validity of the ”greenhouse” effect, in which increasing amounts of carbon dioxide cause steady temperature increases.

The seven atmospheric scientists predict a global warming of ”almost unprecedented magnitude” in the next century. It might even be sufficient to melt and dislodge the ice cover of West Antarctica, they say, eventually leading to a worldwide rise of 15 to 20 feet in the sea level. In that case, they say, it would ”flood 25 percent of Louisiana and Florida, 10 percent of New Jersey and many other lowlands throughout the world” within a century or less.

STUDY FINDS WARMING TREND THAT COULD RAISE SEA LEVELS – NYTimes.com

So far this century, we have had zero warming.

ACTION IS URGED TO AVERT GLOBAL CLIMATE SHIFT

Special to the New York Times
Published: December 11, 1985

WASHINGTON, Dec. 10— A group of senators and scientists today called for national and international action to avert a predicted warming of the earth’s climate resulting from a buildup of carbon dioxide and other man-made gases in the atmosphere.

They warned at a Senate hearing that such an effect, like that of a greenhouse, would produce radical climate changes and a subsequent rise in ocean levels that could have catastrophic results in the next century unless steps were taken now to deal with the problem.

Senator Albert Gore Jr., Democrat of Tennessee, said he would introduce legislation to expand and focus scientific efforts on this greenhouse effect.

Because the rise in temperature is expected to be higher at the earth’s poles, another effect of the climate change is expected to be a melting of the icecaps and a rise in the level of the oceans of seven feet or more

ACTION IS URGED TO AVERT GLOBAL CLIMATE SHIFT – NYTimes.com

EARTH’S CLIMATIC CRISIS EXAMINED BY ‘NOVA’
By HERBERT MITGANG
Published: June 24, 1986

PICKING up where a high-school chemistry class might end, ”Nova,” the public-broadcasting science series, offers the nonmatriculating viewer an advanced course in worrying. The cause of the concern is all the carbon dioxide that’s being pumped into the industrialized and motorized air. The hourlong broadcast is called ”The Climate Crisis: The Greenhouse Effect,” at 9 tonight on Channel 13.

The conclusion, conveyed with great authority by several big-league climatologists from government and private research organizations, is terrible: by the year 2000, the atmosphere and weather will grow warmer by several degrees and life – animal, plant, human – will be threatened. The experts say that melting ice caps, flooded cities, droughts in the corn belt and famine in the third world could result if the earth’s mean temperature rises by a mere two or three degrees.

EARTH’S CLIMATIC CRISIS EXAMINED BY ‘NOVA’ – NYTimes.com

Decade after decade, scientists tell us that global warming is just about to come and kill us all.

By JAMES GLEICK
Published: May 12, 1985

As global nightmares go, the greenhouse effect has managed not to keep policy makers awake nights devising plans of action. Scientists see an assortment of theoretical catastrophes just over the horizon, but the more dire their predictions, the more difficult it seems to find an appropriate response.

IDEAS & TRENDS (CONTINUED) – A DIRE LONG-RANGE FORECAST – NYTimes.com

Published: November 2, 1983

The recent forecast by the Environmental Protection Agency that a general warming of the earth’s atmosphere will occur during the next decades has sent shivers all along the East Coast.

In Florida they are afraid that the coastal cities will be submerged by the rising Atlantic Ocean. In Arizona they are wondering whether the recent floods will become a permanent feature of their climate. And in New York they are thinking of selling the city’s snowplows.

– THE GREAT PROMISE OF THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT – NYTimes.com

But there was a time when the New York Times was more than a propaganda outlet for the White House.