Real Climate Science

Steve, well first off you have to define what is meant by ice-free. We often refer to ice-free as less than 1 million sq-km since even with most of the Arctic Ocean ice-free, it is likely that some ice will remain north of Greenland and in the Canadian archipelago.

Also you have to consider if you define ice-free the first time the extent is 0 or below 1 million sq-km, or if it stays that way for consecutive summers.

There are some climate model simulations that show the September extent dropping below 1 million sq-km before 2020, but not necessarily staying below that value until later in the century.

Then you have to consider that even though the ice cover continues to shrink and thin, weather still plays an important role in the summer ice cover. So I think it’s impossible to say that the arctic ocean will be ice-free in september in 2015 without being able to predict the weather.

I think it’s important to remember that while the ice cover is in a period of long term decline (at least since the 1950s for which we have good data to assess the changes) that doesn’t mean the decline is linear and there will be ups and downs.

Even as we look to this coming September, we cannot say with any certainty that this summer will have less sea ice than last summer.

I personally would be very surprised if the Arctic Ocean was ice free in 2 years, but I do think it is likely to happen in the next couple decades.

~Julienne

summit:status:webcam

Hi Julienne,

NASA’s chief scientist is warning that the Arctic will be ice-free in the next couple of years, using Mark Serreze’s verbage.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/earth-insight/2013/may/02/white-house-arctic-ice-death-spiral?fb=native&commentpage=1

I’m curious how you would respond to that?

White House warned on imminent Arctic ice death spiral | Nafeez Ahmed | Environment | guardian.co.uk

It won’t be long before the White House declares climate skeptics to be terrorists.

This is what the actual Arctic looks like. Not the imaginary one which lives inside the empty heads of the brainless academics who are running the country.

Barrow Sea Ice Webcam

The Navy has predicted that the Arctic will be ice-free in a few weeks.

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013?

The Secretary of State also predicted an ice-free Arctic in a few weeks.

August 31, 2009

John Kerry

Scientists project that the Arctic will be ice-free in the summer of 2013.

John Kerry: We Can’t Ignore the Security Threat from Climate Change

September Arctic ice extent has nothing to do with food production. These people are complete idiots.

In the 17th century, the experts blamed bad weather on witches.

In the 21st century, the experts blame bad weather on Republicans. If only Obama was allowed to pump trillions of dollars into green energy scams, then we would never have bad weather again.

Experts say that the Arctic will be ice-free in a few weeks, so the polar bears will have to move to Colorado. See if you can spot the Heron next to the partially frozen pond below.

The next picture shows some youth soccer fields, where the kids will finish their spring season next week.

President Obama implied in his State of The Union address that the climate of Colorado has been destroyed by global warming, and that we are doomed to a fiery CO2 hell.

Twitter / WMOnews: Global Climate in 2012: among …

This year marks the 25th anniversary of Hansen using La Nina as an excuse for his failed 1988 “hottest year ever” prediction.

Ellensburg Daily Record – Dec 7, 1988

If only Hansen could get his Super El Nino. Perhaps then he could get above his zero emissions  Scenario C for a month or two.

The current temperature in Fort Collins, Colorado is -9C. It will probably get colder before dawn, but is already the second coldest May temperature in Fort Collins history – beaten only by May 6, 1917 when it was -11C.

We also have a foot of snow on the ground, and are having the snowiest spring on record.

The DC based US drought monitor says that we are suffering an extreme drought.

I predict that a German team will win this year. I also predict that no one will call Barcelona the best team in the world any more.

The same north winds which have been bringing record cold to Western Canada, Alaska and the US have also brought large amounts of 10+ foot thick ice to the Beaufort Sea, where temperatures remain far below normal.

arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif (740×666)