Real Climate Science

Phil shows no trend in Reykjavik temperatures over the the last 90 years, yet Hansen has corrupted the GISS data set recently to show a strong warming trend.

Why didn’t Jim shoot Phil an E-mail before he did this?

docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/035/mwr-035-01-0007b.pdf

CRUTEM4v shows that the grid cell which Nuuk, Greenland is located on, has no temperature trend over the last 100 years. GISS used to show the same thing, but Hansen recently corrupted the Nuuk temperature data to show a warming trend – which never actually occurred.

Note too that the Hansen 2010 Greenland spike never actually occurred.

Scientists wanted to improve the climate – by making the Arctic ice-free. Apparently  climate scientists were much smarter 100 years ago.

13 Dec 1912 – Melting of the North Pole. SCHEME TO IMPROVE THE…

During the last couple of weeks I made four forecasts.

                      
                        Forecast                Result
UAH April               0.29                    0.295
Chelsea-Liverpool       2-1                     2-1
Man City-Newcastle      4-1                     2-0 
Chelsea-Munich          Chelsea humiliation     (May 19)

August 22, 2011

Georgia and the Carolinas are increasingly looking like they could take a direct hit from Hurricane Irene, possibly as a Category 3 storm containing winds of 115 miles per hour or higher. Before that happens, however, South Florida is almost a certainty to get hit, either directly or indirectly, with storm conditions mounting by Thursday.

Hurricane Irene 2011: Storm Tracking to Georgia, Florida, Carolinas; FEMA Says ‘Get Prepared’ – International Business Times

23 August 2011

Category 2 Irene is expected to become still more ferocious, possibly increasing to a Category 4 before hitting Florida and North and South Carolina at the weekend.

Hurricane Irene: Florida warned the Caribbean storm could increase to Category 4 before hitting U.S. | Mail Online

If you bet on every horse in the race, there is a very high probability that you will hold a winning ticket.

That is exactly what NOAA did with hurricane tropical storm Irene. At one time or other, NOAA bet on landfall at every state on the east coast. Note too that they made numerous forecasts for a major hurricane in the Carolinas.

After TS Irene did make landfall, NOAA told us that they got the forecast right, even though 90% of their forecast tracks were wrong. The one forecast which did have the right track, greatly overestimated the intensity.

Their grade was a D, but they awarded themselves an A+. At landfall, peak winds shown on Weather Underground were below 40 MPH.

“The exception tests the rule.” Or, put another way, “The exception proves that the rule is wrong.” That is the principle of science. If there is an exception to any rule, and if it can be proved by observation, that rule is wrong.

-Richard Feynman

Unbelievable crap about climate sensitivity over on Cook’s site. Alarmists have now thrown Hansen’s 1988 predictions under the bus, and have reverted back to his pre-historic 1981 predictions, from the days before he became an alarmist.

Lindzen’s Clouded Vision, Part 1: Science

So why is Cook ignoring the 1988 predictions? Simple – because they show extremely low climate sensitivity and obliterate his attack on Lindzen. Climate sensitivity is less than Hansen’s zero emissions Scenario C.

The evidence shows that climate sensitivity is much lower than Hansen hypothesized. So how do they react? By bumping the forecasts upwards. Climate alarmism  nothing to do with science.

We’ve learned from experience that the truth will come out.
– Richard Feynman

For years we have been told by NASA that the Antarctic Peninsula is the fastest warming place on Earth. But sadly for Al and Jim, over the past decade CRUTEMPv4 shows a decline in temperatures there.

I’m very surprised that NASA didn’t make a press release about this, because all that Hansen cares about is good science.

According to a top expert from NASA. the Arctic may be ice free in twelve weeks. But for now, Arctic ice area is above normal and increasing over the last couple of days.

ssmi1_ice_area.png (1667×1250)

Bill told me the other day that droughts and floods happen more frequently now due to global warming. That idea is not supported by the historical record.

Australia had drought, flood or both during almost every year from 1789 to 1864.

13 Oct 1868 – THE CLIMATE OF AUSTRALIA.

The logic is very straightforward. If you kill dozens of innocent women and children by exploding your genitals, god will reward you by providing dozens of virgins to have sex with.

The logic is nearly as rational as the concept that taxes can prevent tornadoes.