Real Climate Science

He is upset that people are going to the beach.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHy6S5u7M3w]

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That will be Romm’s lead story this weekend.

Every weather event now is a 100 year event or a 500 year event.

More than 200,000 New Yorkers are under orders to flee a once-in-a-century hurricane, but many in the famed City That Never Sleeps are brushing aside danger — and heading to the beach.

Hours after Mayor Mike Bloomberg ordered the evacuation from the low-lying Rockaway Beach, the sun-kissed coastline was packed with sunbathers and surfers as city dwellers took the dire warnings about Hurricane Irene in stride.

Roberto Luzuriaga, who was making a brisk business selling Italian Ice desserts to swimmers straight off the sand, echoed the views of many when he said that authorities’ warnings were at times self-serving.

“It definitely is a concern, but sometimes things are blown out of proportion. Sometimes the people who make the calls just want to save their asses,” said Luzuriaga, who is still debating whether to leave his nearby home.

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New York has had five major hurricanes in the last century. Enough mindless alarmism, please.

I got this E-mail from Pat Michaels yesterday around lunchtime

As of mid-afternoon on Thursday, recon and satellite data indicate that Irene is currently in decline. I doubt it is a cat 3 any more but the Hurricane Center will keep it there, at least for now, for what they call “continuity”, given the fact that it could re-intensify tomorrow when it gets in the coastal bend of FL GA SC, a favorable region for that for a number of reasons.

The Infrared image is singularly UN-impressive this afternoon. Further, it looks like a dry slot is going to wind around the center (the eyewall is already pretty much opened up to the south), and that will reduce maximum winds. Whether or not it comes back will probably be known in 24 hours.

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Less than 24 hours ago Romm promised us that Manhattan would drown. Obama runs back to the golf links of the south.

The hype over Hurricane Irene is overblown, predicts the CEO of Advanced Forecasting Corporation.

“North of Delaware, most hurricane force winds will very likely be gusts, not sustained winds.”
o    The demise of Irene has already begun. There is no visible eye. The storm intensity is down to 99 mph. This would be a low-end category 2 or a strong category 1 storm, while 36 hours ago some predicted a catastrophic category 4 storm. Air Force Reserve aircraft have found that Irene’s eyewall has collapsed, and the central pressure has risen — rising pressure means a weakening storm.

o    The reduction in storm intensity likely confirms that this storm is not going to be as monstrous as it has been publicly forecast to be.

o    Yes, it will be windy. However, north of Delaware most hurricane force winds will very likely be gusts, not sustained winds.

https://www.gplus.com/

When the Soviet Union collapsed, thousands of Russian nuclear scientists were put out of work. President Bush was urged to hire them to keep them out of trouble, but of course the US government always thinks it is more cost effective to spend trillions trying to put the cat back in the bag later. As a result of foolish decisions in Washington twenty years ago, North Korea and Iran are both nuclear powers now.

Fast forward. Scientists have families to feed, and like the rest of us will do whatever they have to to keep the money coming in. The US and other western governments pay tens of thousands of them to produce a pre-determined global warming result, and of course the scientists do it faithfully. Some might actually even believe their own BS.

If any interested parties have a financial stake in not seeing carbon taxes or Obama’s  backdoor destruction of the economy through the EPA, they should be willing to pay. As long as scientists have no other options for keeping their families fed, they will do exactly what they need to do.

March 29, 2006

James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy, Ken Lo, David Lea and Martin Medina-Elizalde

SUPER EL NINO IN 2006-2007?  We suggest that an El Nino is likely to originate in 2006 and that there is a good chance it will be a “super El Nino”, rivaling the 1983 and 1997-1998 El Ninos, which were successively labeled the “El Nino of the century” as they were of unprecedented strength in the previous 100 years (Fig. 1 of Fedorov and Philander 2000).

March 31, 2011

Based on sub­sur­face ocean tem­pera­tures, the way these have pro­gres­sed the past sever­al months, and com­parisons with de­velop­ment of prior El Niños, we be­lieve that the sys­tem is mov­ing toward a strong El Niño start­ing this summ­er. It’s not a sure bet, but it is pro­b­able.

August, 2011

“The Missouri River is flooding,” said Dr. James Hansen, Director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, during a visit to Omaha on Tuesday. “We’ve had 100 years floods now a couple of times on the Missouri River recently. That’s one of the expected consequences of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide.”

 

Ten years ago American Flight 587 hit Belle Harbor in Queens. This year it is Mayor Bloomberg and the Irene Dance Troupe.

When I was little kid, I used to hang out here in the summer. All the houses have two or three floors. God forbid people might have to go upstairs for an hour.

NEW YORK (AP) — Nearly 300,000 people who live in flood-prone areas of New York City were ordered to evacuate Friday as Hurricane Irene sets its sights on the nation’s largest city. New Yorkers, many of them without cars, don’t have much time to get out of the way before the city shutters its subways, buses and trains on Saturday.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg ordered a mandatory evacuation by 5 p.m. Saturday for low-lying areas that house about 270,000 people. The areas include the Battery Park City complex on the southern end of Manhattan; Coney Island, famed for its boardwalk and amusement park; the beachfront community of the Rockaways and other neighborhoods around the city.

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