Real Climate Science

Ireland To Face Climate Change Malaria Risk

Medical experts have raised concerns of malaria taking hold in Ireland as the change in climatic conditions could become conducive to the spread of the disease and allow mosquitoes to breed in the country. Malaria kills more than one million people annually around the world.

Dr. Elizabeth Cullen has said “all that is necessary is a return of regularly recurring hotter summers over a definite period of years, and the malaria–carrying Anopheles will inevitably re-establish themselves and infect a certain proportion of the community”.

http://dailynewstoyou.com

http://wonkroom.thinkprogress.org/2011/04/07/hot-pink-arctic/

Hansen’s purple crayon is out of control. He has almost no data in the Arctic, as you can see below. The 0.44 anomaly being reported in the map above is unjustifiable. Axel Heiberg Island was cold, and the map above showed it as hot.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/

We know from people in the Arctic (like the Catlin Survey) that temperatures there have been bitter cold (-35C.) NOAA is currently showing Greenland 15C below normal.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_01a.fnl.anim.html

Hansen’s claim above about summers getting hotter is also ridiculous. This is what he wrote in 1999.

Empirical evidence does not lend much support to the notion that climate is headed precipitately toward more extreme heat and drought. The drought of 1999 covered a smaller area than the 1988 drought, when the Mississippi almost dried up. And 1988 was a temporary inconvenience as compared with repeated droughts during the 1930s “Dust Bowl” that caused an exodus from the prairies, as chronicled in Steinbeck’s Grapes of Wrath.

How can the absence of clear climate change in the United States be reconciled with continued reports of record global temperature? Part of the “answer” is that U.S. climate has been following a different course than global climate, at least so far. Figure 1 compares the temperature history in the U.S. and the world for the past 120 years. The U.S. has warmed during the past century, but the warming hardly exceeds year-to-year variability. Indeed, in the U.S. the warmest decade was the 1930s and the warmest year was 1934.

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_07/

This story is being spread around the Internet:

can the cherry blossom tell us anything about climate change?

Yes, says Dr. Yasuyuki Aono of the Osaka Prefecture University. Since the mid-1990s, Aono and his colleague Yukio Omoto have been unearthing records of cherry blossom festivals in the former capital of Kyoto and nearby towns going back to the 9th century. Using the dates of the festival given in the records, and an equation that calculated the temperature in March of a given year based on when the cherry blossoms flowered, Aono was able to estimate March temperatures in the Kyoto area for the past 1200 years, a full thousand years farther back than most temperature data is available for.

The findings would not please climate change deniers: Aono found that recent flowering days are earlier than any in the past 1200 years.

http://www.tnr.com/

Here is the abstract of Aono’s most recent paper, which says the exact opposite.

We investigated documents and diaries from the ninth to the fourteenth centuries to supplement the phenological data series of the flowering of Japanese cherry (Prunus jamasakura) in Kyoto, Japan, to improve and fill gaps in temperature estimates based on previously reported phenological data. We then reconstructed a nearly continuous series of March mean temperatures based on 224 years of cherry flowering data, including 51 years of previously unused data, to clarify springtime climate changes. We also attempted to estimate cherry full-flowering dates from phenological records of other deciduous species, adding further data for 6 years in the tenth and eleventh centuries by using the flowering phenology of Japanese wisteria (Wisteria floribunda). The reconstructed tenth century March mean temperatures were around 7°C, indicating warmer conditions than at present. Temperatures then fell until the 1180s, recovered gradually until the 1310s, and then declined again in the mid-fourteenth century.

http://www.springerlink.com/content/e13r57081qk84930/

Even worse is the fact that Aono blames recent warming in the cities on UHI.

http://www.envi.osakafu-u.ac.jp/atmenv/aono/OmotoAono1990.pdf

Not a hint of truth being presented by the MSM.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/

10-16 inches of snow.

http://www.accuweather.com/us/az/flagstaff/86001/watches-warnings.asp

Tony Duncan sent over some great stuff. First Hansen claims that he stated in 1988 that scenario B was the most likely. Then in the very next paragraph he says that he gave an interview in 1988 discussing a doubling of CO2 by 2028.

Michaels refers to greenhouse gas scenarios A, B, C in our 1988 paper, failing to note that precisely measured greenhouse gas climate forcing since 1988 fall almost exactly on our scenario B, which we had described as the most likely. Our climate model did a good job of simulating global temperature change, predicting a warming that so far is about 1/3 greater than observations – just about what we should expect, because the model used in that paper had sensitivity 4.2°C for doubled CO2, while we now know that real world sensitivity is 3°C.

Michaels also has the facts wrong about a 1988 interview of me by Bob Reiss, in which Reiss asked me to speculate on changes that might happen in New York City in 40 years assuming CO2 doubled in amount. Michaels has it as 20 years, not 40 years, with no mention of doubled CO2. Reiss verified this fact to me, but he later sent the message: “I went back to my book and re-read the interview I had with you. I am  embarrassed to say that although the book text is correct, in remembering our original conversation, during a casual phone interview with a Salon magazine reporter in 2001 I was off in years. What I asked you originally at your office window was for a prediction of what Broadway would look like in 40 years, not 20. But when I spoke to the Salon reporter 10 years later – probably because I’d been watching the predictions come true, I remembered it as a 20 year question.”

http://www.columbia.edu/

This is how Hansen described scenario B in 1988

“Scenario A assumes continued exponential trace gas growth, scenario B assumes a reduced linear linear growth of trace gases, and scenario C assumes a rapid curtailment of trace gas emissions such that the net climate forcing ceases to increase after the year 2000.”

A doubling of CO2 by 2028 is  more like Joe Romm’s “super-exponential” growth, then scenario B. And regardless of which scenario Hansen now claims he meant, they are all too high. The red line shows the GISS trend since 1960.

http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1988/1988_Hansen_etal.pdf

CO2 is not going to double by 2028 and Manhattan is not going to be underwater.

“Well, there will be more traffic.” I, of course, didn’t think he heard the question right. Then he explained, “The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won’t be there. The trees in the median strip will change.” Then he said, “There will be more police cars.” Why? “Well, you know what happens to crime when the heat goes up.”

http://dir.salon.com/books/int/2001/10/23/weather/

Hansen’s claim that his 1988 forecasts “did a a gob job” is simply ludicrous.

Last month was the coldest March since 1994 (on this planet.)

http://www.remss.com/

h/t to Marc Morano

My thirteen year old just showed me this parody. I nearly split my side laughing.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzfQwXEqYaI]

Here is the original (Warning! very annoying)

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CD2LRROpph0]

Overnight low temperature hovers close to Sacramento record

Sacramento flirted with a record low temperature this morning as winter returned on the heels of a cold low pressure system.

The low pressure center that brought snow to the Sierra and hailstorms to some locations has moved south. But the coldest temperatures of the week remain in the Central Valley.
The morning low hovered around 35 degrees in Sacramento suburbs and dipped to 38 degrees downtown. At Sacramento’s Executive Airport the temperature dropped to 34 degrees.

The record low for downtown Sacramento is 34 degrees, a mark set in 1953.

Other low temperatures this morning: Blue Canyon, 21 degrees, Colfax 26, Grass Valley, 28, Pollock Pines, 24, Woodland 31, Auburn Municipal Airport, 32.

http://www.sacbee.com/

“When the Pentagon says, ‘Yes, Saddam’s WMD’s are real climate change is real,’ it might get people to pay attention who otherwise might be skeptical,” Haines- Stiles said.

http://www.centredaily.com/