http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=646
If Cook’s statement were correct, the implication would be that the climate does not normally change.
Climate scientists can’t forecast the Sun, volcanoes, oceanic cycles, clouds, rain, snow, ice, soil moisture – or anything else which affects the climate long term, but they claim that they can predict the future based on a single variable.
This is witchcraft, not science.
Looks like PIPS was right, after all.
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/2011/03/23/explorers-reach-ice-base/
h/t to Marc Morano and Tom Nelson
On April 11, 2007 the Met Office issued this forecast :
News release
11 April 2007
Met Office forecast for Summer 2007
The latest seasonal forecast from the Met Office issued today, reveals that this summer is, yet again, likely to be warmer than normal.Following the trend set throughout 2006 and the first part of 2007, seasonal forecasters say there is a high probability that summer temperature will exceed the 1971-2000 long-term average of 14.1 °C.
They also suggest the chances of temperatures similar to those experienced in 2003 and 2006 are around 1 in 8.
The forecast for rainfall is less certain, and currently there are no indications of an increased risk of a particularly dry or particularly wet summer.
2007 was the wettest, most miserable summer on record in the UK.
Here is what the press release looks like on the Met Office web site.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2007/pr20070411.html
On January 4, 2007 the UK Met Office forecast that 2007 would be the “hottest year ever.”
News release
4 January 2007
2007 – forecast to be the warmest year yet
2007 is likely to be the warmest year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998, say climate-change experts at the Met Office.
Each January the Met Office, in conjunction with the University of East Anglia, issues a forecast of the global surface temperature for the coming year. The forecast takes into account known contributing factors, such as solar effects, El Niño, greenhouse gases concentrations and other multi-decadal influences. Over the previous seven years, the Met Office forecast of annual global temperature has proved remarkably accurate, with a mean forecast error size of just 0.06 °C.
Here is what it looks like on their web site.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2007/pr20070104.html
This is what actually happened in 2007. Temperatures plummeted by half a degree.
The Met Office has deleted their failed winter 2009/2010 forecast from their web site.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/monthsahead/seasonal/2009/winter.html
Here is the original forecast, before the Met Office deleted it.
In the absence of not yet developed (and not necessarily feasible) storage technology, wind and solar are nearly useless in most places. Nuclear obviously has its problems. Coal, oil and natural gas are abundant, and provide the vast majority of the world’s energy.
Sadly, a few people in the scientific community have driven the world insane with ancient fears about CO2.
GISS trend shown in red. GISS 2011 shown in green.
Their forecasts have failed miserably, but they won’t let go. Too much money and reputation is at stake for them and their friends. So they find a hundredth of a degree here, and a hundredth of a degree there – enough to justify in their own minds meaningless and incorrect pronouncements about the “hottest year ever” “hottest decade ever” “changing climate” “extreme climate.” They blame their failures on “big oil money“and “second hand smoke.”
Anything to keep the funding alive. The energy needs and mental health of the world be damned.
Crime and car accidents increase the GNP because of the increased work for police, ambulances and prisons. A reduction in crime reduces the GNP. Similarly, a good way to increase Australian GNP would be to burn down Sydney and Melbourne each year. GNP would grow because of the extra work for fire brigades, undertakers, architects, builders, and plumbers. There would be little to show for all this annual effort – but there would be a higher GNP.
They have removed the failed seasonal forecasts from their archive, and replaced some of them with junk like this :
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2009/our-summer-forecast
