Crack NOAA Climate Model Predicted A Warm Winter In The Midwest And Eastern US

9 Responses to Crack NOAA Climate Model Predicted A Warm Winter In The Midwest And Eastern US

1. Don says:

   January 17, 2014 at 5:06 am

   Emphasis on the word “crack” seems appropriate.

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   • nomoregore says:

     January 17, 2014 at 4:03 pm

     Crack, or Crank?

     Reply
2. Pathway says:

   January 17, 2014 at 5:08 am

   Here on the NW corner of the Colorado Plateau, Sept was the second wettest on record and hence much cooler than normal and the month of December was the coldest ever recorded. NOAA could have been more wrong on their prediction. They would have been better off to reverse the color schemes. I still think reading chicken entrails has a better chance of a correct forecast.

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   • jason Calley says:

     January 17, 2014 at 12:44 pm

     “They would have been better off to reverse the color schemes.”

     No doubt NOAA will issue a press release that their prediction “correlates almost perfectly” with the actual temperatures. Of course they will neglect to mention that the correlation is an inverse relationship.

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     • nomoregore says:

       January 17, 2014 at 4:05 pm

       Mikey Mann says the sign of the number doesn’t matter….so they have “scientific” precedent on their side… 🙂

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3. Karl says:

   January 17, 2014 at 5:09 am

   Their predictions are based entirely off the state of the Tropical Pacific ENSO and “trend.” With a neutral ENSO forecast, they ran with trend that has seen mild winters in general over the last decade or so.

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4. Don says:

   January 17, 2014 at 5:18 am

   Looking back at the other charts at the link, they got Sept., Oct.. and Nov. wrong to go along with Dec., and well on their way to having Jan. wrong We were definitely below average to average.

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5. Ben Vorlich says:

   January 17, 2014 at 8:03 am

   He just got the wrong part of the world, here in Western Europe we’ve had a very mild and wet winter so far. One out of two is a excellent record for these guys 😉

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6. jason Calley says:

   January 17, 2014 at 12:46 pm

   (sarcasm follows)

   Of course you cannot expect them to predict weather a few months into the future. Their models are all tuned to tell us what will happen in a hundred years, not three months!

   Reply