Wednesday Will See The Usual BS From Climate Alarmists

Posted on December 30, 2015 by Tony Heller

North Pole to melt today! Earth to drown! Models are reality!

Screenshot 2015-12-30 at 12.07.39 PMScreenshot 2015-12-30 at 12.02.29 PM

The Terrifying Storm That Will Melt the North Pole This Week – The Atlantic

The closest buoy to the North Pole is showing -10C at 1800 GMT

Screenshot 2015-12-30 at 12.05.33 PM

North Pole 90N

Just like Patricia last month.  The most powerful hurricane ever – which did almost no damage. Meanwhile, here in the real world, Arctic ice is screaming back towards 1990’s levels.

Screenshot 2015-12-30 at 12.13.32 PM

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

At 1900 GMT the temperature is still -10C

2015-12-30-13-35-01

At 2000 GMT the temperature is still -10C

2015-12-30-14-17-08

There was a spike, but nowhere near the freezing mark

meanT_2015

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

About Tony Heller

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69 Responses to Wednesday Will See The Usual BS From Climate Alarmists

  1. OrganicFool says:
    December 30, 2015 at 7:48 pm

    The current temp is apparently 42F?

    However, this is nothing abnormal at all, according to this history going back to 1968:
    http://weather-warehouse.com/WeatherHistory/PastWeatherData_NorthPole_NorthPole_AK_December.html

    December has been this warm, in fact warmer, in the past, eg. 1965, ’68, ’82, ’85. It 1982, it reached 47F in December. In January 1981 the warmest was 50F, and in 2009 55F.

    Between the Medieval warming period and the Little Ice age, the Earth cooled 6-10C. Since the LIA, only warmed 2-3C. What are these alarmists whining about?

    Democrats and Greenies have for sure lost my vote for pretty much ever. I hope the rest of the country wakes up to their apparent communist agenda. Listening to Bernie Sanders makes me almost wish for Joseph McCarthy! “Have you ever been a member of the Communist party?” And we’re worried about Muslim infiltrators?

    In other good news, the price of energy stocks has come down dramatically. I’m pretty sure coal and oil aren’t going away any time soon. The investment savvy might make a killing. Some coal companies are going bankrupt, however.

    The Greens love it watching people lose their jobs? While they sit in their cozy coal-fired or natural gas warmed homes or burn carbon producing wood from their fireplaces.

    Reply
  2. Jason Calley says:
    December 30, 2015 at 8:43 pm

    There are several sites reporting the predicted North Pole warming. One of them: http://time.com/4164104/north-pole-temperature-heat/ Time Magazine Science Section originally ran the piece with a link to temperatures for the “North Pole” and mistakenly linked to North Pole, Alaska. My guess is that Organic Fool read the Times version. Times has corrected their link now.

    Reply
    • wizzum says:
      December 30, 2015 at 8:45 pm

      OK, that seems fair, maybe 1700 miles south of the pole it might.

      Reply
    • Colorado Wellington says:
      December 30, 2015 at 9:00 pm

      Yes, Penthouse Sidebar (@drfessel) posted the link to the Time piece here and said:

      This has to top all. Time Magazine article on the warm weather at the North Pole.

      Stormy weather in the North Atlantic has brought balmy weather to the world’s northernmost point.
      http://time.com/4164104/north-pole-temperature-heat/

      Now click on the “hit 42 degrees Fahrenheit” link.

      It goes to the town of North Pole Alaska.

      Where of course Santa’s House is.

      I saw it but I had to step away before I could save it. By the time I got back they removed it and covered their tracks.

      Reply
      • OrganicFool says:
        December 30, 2015 at 9:18 pm

        Ha! I think somebody confused the two places. I simply wanted a historical temperature record. I didn’t even notice it was Alaska! I see similar comments on other sites regarding this confusion.

        So the question is, is this warmth actually expected to occur at the real North Pole? As Tony’s link shows, it is currently well below freezing.

        People here smarter than the average polar bear! 🙂 Good job.

        Reply
  3. Lawrence Martin says:
    December 30, 2015 at 9:11 pm

    Who predicted this last Saturday?

    HINT: not Tony Heller aka Steven Goddard

    [SG : Martin continues babbling incoherently. Is he off his meds?]

    Reply
  5. Dennis Sandberg says:
    December 30, 2015 at 9:25 pm

    Alert, Canada high for the next 10 days is -10F

    Reply
  6. willys36 says:
    December 30, 2015 at 9:26 pm

    if there were any honesty in the press there would be front page, above the fold rebuke of Robinson Meyer and of all the idiots he cites in Sunday’s newspapers. My prediction for the Sunday papers; no mention of this trash article and another trash article with another outrageous claim that will become more new ‘truth’.

    Reply
    • Gail Combs says:
      December 31, 2015 at 12:26 pm

      As Colorado Wellington said @ December 30, 2015 at 9:00 pm above

      Yes, Penthouse Sidebar (@drfessel) posted the link to the Time piece here and said:

      This has to top all. Time Magazine article on the warm weather at the North Pole.

      Stormy weather in the North Atlantic has brought balmy weather to the world’s northernmost point.
      http://time.com/4164104/north-pole-temperature-heat/

      Now click on the “hit 42 degrees Fahrenheit” link.

      It goes to the town of North Pole Alaska.

      Where of course Santa’s House is.

      I saw it but I had to step away before I could save it. By the time I got back they removed it and covered their tracks.

      So it was a gaff but instead of admitting it they are covering it up.

      Reply
  7. Neal S says:
    December 30, 2015 at 9:36 pm

    I guess it serves their interests to publish a frightening prediction. When it doesn’t come to pass, nothing further will be said about it, and people will remember the prediction even if nobody knows that it never happened. But if it does come to pass, then we will never hear the end of it.

    I find it rich that the fact that Eric Holthaus “could not find an Arctic expert who had witnessed above-freezing temperatures at the pole between December and early April” implies that just because one person could not find another person that witnessed such, means that it has never happened before! But I guess these sorts of thing are what pass for proof if you are an alarmist.

    It would not surprise me if someone is being dispatched with a small heat source to visit a buoy or two to ‘help out’ natural variability and ensure that there is an official record that will match the prediction. Of course, the record may be set in pretty much the same way as the warmest year record is set. (Adjustments after the fact and from afar off …)

    Reply
  8. cfgjd says:
    December 30, 2015 at 10:00 pm

    The hiatus is over – so did the Sun do it or what? I thought Sun was gettng more quiet already for some years? Explain please.

    Reply
  9. Lawrence Martin says:
    December 30, 2015 at 11:37 pm

    A very strong low pressure system developed over the past couple of days in the N Atlantic. It deepened to a very intense central pressure of 928 mb at 0600 UTC 12/30/15, and is one of the strongest systems to have impacted the Atlantic in recorded history. The system rapidly intensified as it strengthened to a hurricane force low pressure system en route to the NE Atlantic producing very high winds and seas. This video of the enhanced infrared Meteosat-10 imagery and the SEVIRI RGB air mass product shows the entire development of this extremely powerful system. The associated OPC Atlantic surface analyses are also included at the end of the video.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xY6mbyN-aRQ&feature=youtu.be

    Reply
    • bleakhouses says:
      December 31, 2015 at 12:53 am

      Here’s the offer. I’ll fund the trip to the pole. You have to buy a million dollar life insurance policy and name me the beneficiary and you have to stand outside at the pole in just a bathing suit for 1 hour.

      Deal?

      Reply
      • Bartleby says:
        January 2, 2016 at 2:49 am

        In -10F weather? An hour?

        I stood on top of the highest lift at Soldier Mountain ID (Bruce & Demi’s place) for 2 hours in -25F weather and 20 mph wind wearing nothing but a downhill speed suit about 10 years ago and only suffered a case of trench foot. I was wearing ski boots, a helmet and gloves though. -10 F is nothing! OK, I did stand behind the lift wheelhouse too 🙂

        So what’s in it for me?

        Reply
        • Gail Combs says:
          January 2, 2016 at 3:08 am

          Yeah, I used to X-country ski in a silk shirt all the time in the mountains in NH. It would get -10 or -20F or even -30F. If it was windy I used a wind breaker tied loosely in front with long ties I sewed on. I still had to be careful not to over heat.

  10. Gonzo says:
    December 30, 2015 at 11:37 pm

    The warming “event” is already over. There was an hours long warming near the N Pole. to 1c. It’s now moving west and is currently under 0 C. And this is very small area surrounded by very cold air like -29C. Alarmists like marty and cf get all worked up over “weather”.

    Reply
  11. Gonzo says:
    December 31, 2015 at 12:00 am

    What’s even funnier is that the atlantic, salon and others picked this up from a blogger who’s a novelist with NO background in climate, climate science, or science for that matter. He thinks the El Nino is going to melt the ice cap! “Looks like we may be setting up for another go at it during the next two summers. The heat pulse from this El Niño is already starting to transition poleward. And it’s still early”. They must be even rolling their eyes even a NASA etc…….

    Reply
  13. Lawrence Martin says:
    December 31, 2015 at 12:42 am

    Buoy data from Int'l Arctic Buoy Programme confirms North Pole hit melting point Wednesday https://t.co/PL9HKwyuUp pic.twitter.com/smY3LYCERz— Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) December 31, 2015

    //platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Reply
  14. darrylb says:
    December 31, 2015 at 2:51 am

    Kinda fun, seeing all the posts on this thread.—PLEASE READ
    I was in a cold weather unit in the military. North Pole AK was just outside of Fort Wainright,
    which was just outside of Fairbanks.
    We did most of our winter training about 20 miles (about 35 clicks) SW of Wainright, at Fort Greeley or a little base near there at Black Rapids.
    Been there until Christmas several times.

    Can be so cold, that your urine, oh well never mind.

    The first time I got off my snowshoes I got a big surprise, sunk up to my hips in the powder.
    Hard to get out of it. especially when everyone was laughing and would not help.

    However, one time in the middle of 1980’s, at some air strip near there, in the middle of the boring Jack Pine it did get consistently above freezing which ruined the training. The Jack Pine were the only trees which grew there, max at about 20ft high. That was because of the permafrost.
    Boring, boring, boring.

    In the summer time, one could see Moose Nuggets everywhere. Because of the weather they did not decay. Did not have to worry about stepping on the nuggets because it never got too dark. Brought home a pair of Moose nugget earrings for my wife. Somehow she lost them.

    I got to do something I doubt any readers here have done. I was with a company size unit one time, and no military transportation was available. We all boarded a Commercial 747 carrying our weapons. M16’s some with grenade launchers, M60’s and the like. All we had to do when were getting aboard was to say ‘No brass or AMMO Sir’ with a smile.

    Bottom line, weather happens. Unseasonably warm sometimes, Unseasonably cold sometimes.

    Reply
  15. Gail Combs says:
    December 31, 2015 at 8:35 am

    Riddle me this.

    HOW do they know the temperature at the actual north pole?

    The ocean going buoys are frozen in place for the winter and I thought there was no coverage of the actual North pole.
    http://www.rap.ucar.edu/~djohnson/satellite/coverage.html

    UAH covers up to 85 North.

    Dr John Christy** says

    Microwave sounding units (MSU) data from satellites The University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) [Christy and Norris, 2006] and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) (Mears and Wentz, 2005) provide two independent analyses of the same MSU data. The MSU_LT anomalies used in this study represent the lower troposphere (LT) and are a weighted mean from the surface to a pressure of 350 hPa (mean altitude 2.5 km) [Spencer and Christy (1992)]. The importance of the MSU data sets is that all areas of the globe are sampled uniformly. There are small differences between the UAH and RSS data sets which are discussed in appendix A. However, one obtains the same conclusions of this research whichever data set is used. We use the UAH_LT data.

    Latitude bands. The temperature anomaly data can be partitioned into averages over latitude bands that are used in this paper. There are the familiar global (85 S-85 N) and tropical (20 S-20 N) latitude bands. North of the equator there are: NH (0-85 N), ExTropics (20 N-85 N), and NoPol (60 N-85 N). There are corresponding latitude bands south of the equator.

    Even the SkS Kiddies agree – no coverage at the poles

    …The MSU satellite data is collected from a number of satellites orbiting & providing daily coverage of some 80% of the Earth’s surface. Each day the orbits shift and 100% coverage is achieved every 3-4 days. The microwave sensors on the satellites do not directly measure temperature, but rather radiation given off by oxygen in the Earth’s atmosphere. The intensity of this radiation is directly proportional to the temperature of the air and is therefore used to estimate global temperatures….

    “100% coverage is achieved every 3-4 days.” – Not sure where they get that from.

    And to counter the not calibrated from the SkS kiddies that Martin reguritates. This from Dr Spencer

    [NOTE: These satellite measurements are not calibrated to surface thermometer data in any way, but instead use on-board redundant precision platinum resistance thermometers (PRTs) carried on the satellite radiometers. The PRT’s are individually calibrated in a laboratory before being installed in the instruments.]
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/09/02/august-global-temperature-still-in-a-holding-pattern/

    Dr Christy** (RSS data set) has this to say about calibration and discrepancies between the two satillite data sets.

    Randall and Herman [2008] report a detailed comparison of UAH and RSS in an effort to determine the causes of the discrepancies between the two data sets. They found that the discrepancies were associated with adjustments from one satellite to another and with diurnal corrections. Comparison with radiosonde data sets “…
    [i]ndicated that RSS’s method … of determining diurnal effects is likely overestimating the correction to the LT channel.” In other words, Randall and Herman state that the RSS methods lead to warm biases and thus the UAH data set is likely better. In particular, they state that the largest discrepancies [RSS larger than UAH] in the LT channel are centered on 1993 in both the global and tropical data. There are also other smaller discrepancies.

    Christy and Norris [2006] and Christy et al. [2007] provide additional evidence that UAH is preferred over RSS. Their conclusions are based upon (a) An examination of specific time periods (b) A study of the inter-relationships between MSU bulk layer temperatures and (c) In a comparison with a uniform dataset of U.S. radiosondes, RSS tropospheric temperatures revealed a significant upward shift of about 0.1 K in the early 1990s. Further comparisons with tropical radiosondes and surface temperature datasets indicated the same result, that in comparison with all others, RSS displayed a relative positive shift of 0.07 to 0.13 K. In absolute terms, RSS was the only tropical tropospheric dataset which indicated 3-year average temperatures were significantly warmer after the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo than before. Finally, in a test of inter-layer consistency (i.e. the relationship between temperatures of satellite products measuring different vertical layers), RSS data were outside the statistical estimates calculated by radiosonde measurements (Christy et al. 2007).

    ** from LIMITS ON CO2 CLIMATE FORCING FROM RECENT TEMPERATURE DATA OF EARTH
    David H. Douglassa and John R. Christyb
    aDepartment of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627, USA
    bDepartment of Atmospheric Science and Earth System Science Center, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL 35899, USA

    Reply
    • Gail Combs says:
      December 31, 2015 at 8:57 am

      The surface based temperature set does not measure the actual north pole either.

      http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/stations/great-dying-of-thermometers.gif

      The Global Historic Climate Network(GHCN) actually DROPPED the far northern surface stations.
      CANADA (black triangle is stations in use by GHCN)

      https://diggingintheclay.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/canada-bypopulation.png

      Note how the ClimAstrologists shifted to using a much larger proportion of stations on the Pacific Coast that will catch the warm water from the El Ninos.
      1975 map
      https://diggingintheclay.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/canadastations1975.png

      ASIA also had a station drop out
      https://i0.wp.com/www.climateapplications.com/GHCN/images/Raw_Asia_Unstacked.png

      …The key obsevation from Figures 7 and 8 is that Chinese stations are the dominant contribution in Asia. It is also clear that are the primary cause of the sudden increase in the number of reporting stations after 1950. Note that the increase in the numbers for Japan and the Russain Federations is much more gradual. All three countries show the ‘precipitous drop out’ of reporting stations around 1989/1990. Why? The Chinese stations in particular drop from a high number of 361 in 1990 to only 14 in 1991. Very odd? In addition to upsetting Environment Canada, has NOAA also broken off diplomatic relations with the Chinese? It looks like diplomatic relations with Mongolia were broken off a little earlier than they were with China as the Mongolian station ‘drop out’ occurs after 1982/83. Meanwhile, having enjoyed good relations with South Korea from 1973 when the number of reporting stations increased to over 60, sadly after 1993, the South Koreans appear to have also fallen out with NOAA with the numbers dropping to only 10 in the subsequent years…
      https://diggingintheclay.wordpress.com/2010/01/21/the-station-drop-out-problem/

      Reply
      • AndyG55 says:
        December 31, 2015 at 10:48 am

        gees. with all this massive Asian area no longer reporting …

        looks like we will have to rely on the satellite data 😉

        Or we could just ask NOAA/NCDC to just MAKE UP some numbers !!!

        Reply
        • AndyG55 says:
          December 31, 2015 at 10:50 am

          “Or we could just ask NOAA/NCDC to just MAKE UP some numbers !!!”

          I’m sure Tom and Gavin will manage something, and feed it to GISS, HadCrut, Jaxa etc

          Global warming has been almost completely FABRICATED WARMING.

      • Gail Combs says:
        December 31, 2015 at 12:39 pm

        Make up the numbers? Never say so.

        From someone who is NOT Steven Goddard and not an American:

        Of Missing Temperatures and Filled-in Data (Part 1)
        Posted on February 25, 2010 by Verity Jones

        One of the most shocking things about examining the GHCN data that goes into global climate models has been the inconsistency of the data. Not only is there loss of stations, but within each set of station data, there may be considerable loss of monthly data. This post asks – how bad is this? (answer – much worse than I thought – see the last graph)…

        What is interesting in missing data and in-filling become MORE prevalent AFTER 1970!

        https://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vYBt7hixAMU/S4b1j1_L00I/AAAAAAAAASs/Lwxu5-_sRC4/s400/WMO+Missing+months.png

        WTF?!? This is AFTER the 1974 CIA report saying climate was a security problem. It is also AFTER the 1972 First Earth Summit warning of Global Warming so what gives?

        Of Missing Temperatures and Filled-in Data (Part 2)

        The previous post looked at the potential effect of missing months on station annual mean tempertures and anomaly values where one month of data was missing and showed in the last figure just what a high proportion of stations have at least one month missing per year in recent years. Many stations, however, have much more than one month missing. Figure 1 shows the missing months in GHCN data from 1800. There may have been very few stations reporting in the 19th Century, but up to 1875, those that are present in the record had more than 90% reporting rate. The record is 85-95% complete up to ~1960 then drops rapidly: currently only ~70% of station data is complete in each year. The rest? Oh dear…..

        http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vYBt7hixAMU/S4mYG1RMJfI/AAAAAAAAAS0/dmCFnD3wXJM/s1600-h/Andrew's+Missing+Months.bmp

        Figure 1. Quantification of missing months in annual station data (analysis and graph: Andrew Chantrill).

        https://diggingintheclay.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/pix2.jpg

        Figure 2. Distribution of missing months by month and year (analysis and graph: Andrew Chantrill).

        Reply
  16. Jason Calley says:
    December 31, 2015 at 2:46 pm

    Why Gail! What is your point? Sure, the data was adjusted. We all agree that the data was adjusted! And some of it was so adjusted that it adjusted all the way to nothing — so of course we had to take NEW data, data that started from nothing, and adjust it all the way to SOMETHING so that we would have enough good data! Science!

    (Well, maybe not REAL science, but “climate science”.)

    sarc-off 🙂

    Gail, I know that you have raised a lot of animals, and I assume that you have had to housebreak puppies at some point. Do you ever get that feeling that showing facts and logic to CAGW proponents is rather like taking a puppy and rubbing their nose into the mess that they just made on the carpet? Do you ever get the feeling that some puppies are not quite as bright as other puppies?

    Reply
    • Gail Combs says:
      December 31, 2015 at 3:33 pm

      Jason,
      Puppies? Heck I sometime think they couldn’t pass the Field intelligence testing for Guide Horse Candidates (All the guide horses are housebroke)

      http://www.guidehorse.com/images/erik/c2.jpg
      “The worlds first horse to fly in the passenger cabin”
      This is my favorite test.

      Umveg Testing

      Umveg is the process of taking a detour in order to reach a goal. In horses, the ability to do an umveg is an undisputed sign of superior intelligence. For a field test, the horse is lead to one side of an open-ended ten foot wire fence and given a treat. Next, the horse is lead around to the other side of the fence and a treat is place into a bowl directly opposite the horse. An intelligent horse will turn away from the food and circumnavigate the fence to get the food, while a less intelligent horse will stand on the opposite side of the fence and paw the ground. In practice, the more intelligent the horse, the faster they will recognize the need to move away from the treat to get around the fence.

      We had one dumb blonde (palomino) who never did figure out she had to go to the gate to go through the fence to get to her stall. Even with all her herd mates running to and through the gate she would stand there and scream.

      Heck my goats and even my sheep are trained to run mazes. I was selling to a petting farm and the guy (Jason) stood there with his mouth open stuttering but they turn corners! (I was bring them in to a catch pen.)

      http://www.guidehorse.com/images/cudd7.jpg

      Quick Plug for the Foundation
      If you have a friend who needs a guide animal consider one of these minis. The working life of a dog is about ten years. Ponies easily life into their thirties. We buried one pony last year at age 44.
      Application

      …The Guide Horse Foundation is currently seeking blind volunteers for our experimental program. Even though initial studies have shown that Guide Horses are preferred by many ex-guide dog users, the GHF considers itself an experimental program….

      Interest in scientific experimentation – Candidates with experience and demonstrable interest in scientific experimentation are ideal candidates and all Guide Horse users are asked to devote time to provide feedback, explore novel situations and report their findings….

      Reply
      • Jason Calley says:
        December 31, 2015 at 3:45 pm

        A guide horse? I am flummoxed. I never knew there was such a thing. I am curious though — other than a longer life span, are there other benefits? The thing that I am wondering about, is that dogs have such a long time of living closely with humans (and I would think, more closely than horses though I may be wrong), and innate dog social structure is much closer to that of humans. I can understand that a horse would be much better than no guide animal at all, but do they really adapt well enough to regular modern human conditions? I am just a little puzzled.

        Reply
    • Gail Combs says:
      December 31, 2015 at 3:35 pm

      And Jason, we had a tiny goat broken to a ‘cat litterbox’

      Reply
      • Jason Calley says:
        December 31, 2015 at 3:41 pm

        Ha! Good job! Now THAT is a good goat. If you could only train a goat to milk itself and put the milk into the fridge…. 🙂

        Reply

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