“Science Is The Belief In The Ignorance Of The Experts”

All of the highly paid government ice experts were predicting a record Arctic low or an ice-free Arctic.  Meanwhile, I was predicting this :

2016 should end up with more ice than last year

If my prediction is correct, alarmists are in trouble – because next year will become the first year in a decade where there is a significant amount of multi-year ice on the Russian side.

My Arctic Forecast For 2016 | Real Science

Looks like my analysis was spot on.

extent_n_running_mean_amsr2_previous (4)

extent_n_running_mean_amsr2_previous.png (1201×962)

I don’t get paid to do this, but these morons are part of a multi-billion dollar scam.

Screen Shot 2016-08-17 at 5.40.11 AM

Screen Shot 2016-08-17 at 5.48.16 AM

US Navy predicts summer ice free Arctic by 2016 | Nafeez Ahmed | Environment | The Guardian

Screen Shot 2016-08-17 at 5.54.11 AM-down

Arctic News: Arctic Sea Ice gone by September 2016?

Screen Shot 2016-08-17 at 5.57.07 AM-down

Arctic could become ice-free for first time in more than 100,000 years, claims leading scientist

ScreenHunter_377 May. 12 13.16

The Argus-Press – Google News Archive Search

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Gore: Polar ice cap may disappear by summer 2014

ScreenHunter_4699 Nov. 17 08.32

Ages-Old Icecap at North Pole Is Now Liquid, Scientists Find – New York Times

Screen Shot 2016-08-17 at 6.01.49 AM

White House warned on imminent Arctic ice death spiral | Nafeez Ahmed | Environment | The Guardian

Screen Shot 2016-08-17 at 6.03.46 AM

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’

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195 Responses to “Science Is The Belief In The Ignorance Of The Experts”

  1. Tim A says:

    Pathological liars…..hope people wake up!

  2. Douglas Kubler says:

    The Northabout is making occasional turn, they must be encountering some ice. EOSDIS shows much more ahead.

  3. lance says:

    I believe your cheque is in the mail from Big Oil….not holding breath…

  4. Douglas Kubler says:

    BBC audio blog. quote “the ice charts were wrong”
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p044z2mg

  5. CheshireRed says:

    The refusal of governments to challenge this patently false scaremongering is astounding…until you accept that those same governments are integral parts of the self-serving cabal of climate change promoters and beneficiaries. In short they don’t want to face reality because that would derail the climate gravy train for all the lucky ticket-holders, of which government and select hangers-on are many.

  6. Sluggo says:

    I’m sure the scaremongering and fraud will continue for years and years to come, but my expectation is that at some point the real data will break through and begin to gather momentum in the press and elsewhere. At that point, when the tide could possibly be turning to an acknowledgement that the so called ‘deniers’ were actually speaking the truth about the whole scam, the Al Gore’s of the world will start telling the story that we were in a desperate situation a few years ago, but they solved the problem through their actions and the evidence proves they basically ‘saved the planet’. Of course this is nonsense, but I can see these claims being made and accepted throughout the MSM, Academia and the Democrats. The public will eat it up and once again truth is buried, the fraudsters escape justice of any kind, and we move on to a whole new stage of this junk.

  7. Caleb says:

    The difference between 2012 and now is striking. In 2012 a single gale seemed to wipe out a large amount of ice, while this year gale after gale has little effect.

    https://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2016/08/14/arctic-sea-ice-storm-after-storm/

    The storms, which have been more or less nonstop since winter, keep compressing the ice towards the Pole, and though the sea-ice looks very shattered the individual chunks seem thicker. Also it was a bit humorous when all the ice compressed towards the Central Arctic Basin meant the “extent” graph for that basin went up, rather than down, right in the heart of the melt-season.

  8. Dr. A says:

    Great prediction Tony. When do you predict Arctic sea ice extent will go above average levels? The past 7 years are all well below the average as shown on your first chart.

    • Gail Combs says:

      1. Pacific Decadal Oscillation has switched to positive phase so that means colder water near the arctic.

      http://www.climate4you.com/images/PDO%20PositiveAndNegative.gif

      2. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which is anti-phase to the Arctic ice, has topped out and is heading to the negative phase.

      3. We just finished an El Nino which transfers a lot of ocean heat to space.

      4. Solar Cycle 24 peaked last year. NASA: Solar Cycle #24: On Track to be the Weakest in 100 Years

      5. 11 year lag. If Dr Evans is correct there is an eleven year lag between a solar cycle and the effects of the solar cycle.
      ………………

      Here is a check on Dr Evan’s theory:
      Ice cores from the Freemont Glacier show it went from Little Ice Age cold to Modern Warming warm in the ten years around 1850 — Naturally.

      ABSTRACT
      An ice core removed from the Upper Fremont Glacier in Wyoming provides evidence for abrupt climate change during the mid-1800s….

      At a depth of 152 m the refined age-depth profile shows good agreement (1736±10 A.D.) with the 14C age date (1729±95 A.D.). The δ18O profile of the Upper Fremont Glacier (UFG) ice core indicates a change in climate known as the Little Ice Age (LIA)….

      At this depth, the age-depth profile predicts an age of 1845 A.D. Results indicate the termination of the LIA was abrupt with a major climatic shift to warmer temperatures around 1845 A.D. and continuing to present day. Prediction limits (error bars) calculated for the profile ages are ±10 years (90% confidence level). Thus a conservative estimate for the time taken to complete the LIA climatic shift to present-day climate is about 10 years, suggesting the LIA termination in alpine regions of central North America may have occurred on a relatively short (decadal) timescale.
      http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/1999JD901095/full

      Dr. Evans Solar Notch-Delay Theory predicts a delay of about 11 years from a change in solar conditions to a change in earth climate.

      So what happened around 1840? Solar Cycle 8. It began in November 1833 with a smoothed sunspot number of 7.3 and ended in July 1843. Max sunspot number ~210. The prior Solar Cycle 7,began in May 1823 with a smoothed sunspot number of 0.1 and ended in November 1833. Max sunspot number ~105. And thus began the Grand Solar Maximum, highest in 3,000 years which has just ended.
      ………………

      I would expect to see an increase in ice starting within the next decade and taking another decade to get back to the weather we saw in the 1970s

      • Gail Combs says:

        Another check: Glaciation starts in Hudson Bay

        Hudson Bay was the growth centre for the main ice sheet that covered northern North America during the last Ice Age. The whole region has very low year-round average temperatures. (The average annual temperature for Churchill at 59°N is -5 °C; by comparison Arkhangelsk at 64°N in a similar cold continental position in northern Russia has an average of 2 °C.[16]) Water temperature peaks at 8°-9 °C (46°-48 °F) on the western side of the bay in late summer. It is largely frozen over from mid-December to mid-June … WIKI

        From research done last year:

        August 13, 2015: 2nd highest ice coverage for Hudson Bay since 1971 at mid-August – only 1992 higher

        The sea ice on 25 July 2015. (Note the location of the Great Lakes and think of the record ice the last couple of winters and the 6F below normal summer water temperature.)

        https://polarbearscience.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/hudson-bay-breakup-july-25-2015_cis.gif

        The Great Lakes obliterated all records for springtime ice last year, and this year.

        On March 1, 2014 the Great Lakes were approaching 100% Ice Cover – For The First Time On Record, only Lake Ontario was the major holdout

        https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/lice-00-1.gif

        By March 26, 2014 the Great Lakes broke all records.

        https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/20140324180000_cvchdctgl_0007583110.gif

        March 3, 2015: Great Lakes ice cover over 88%, more than last year

        And on 14th October 2014, Water temperature of the Great Lakes is over 6 degrees colder than normal

        Britain faces longest winter in 50 years after earliest ever arrival of Siberian swan
        The arrival of winter, traditionally heralded by the migration of Siberian swans, has come early as 300 birds flock to Britain
        (wwwDOT)telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11926752/Britain-faces-longest-winter-in-50-years-after-earliest-ever-arrival-of-Siberian-swan.html

      • Latitude says:

        hush your mouth………!!

      • Jason Calley says:

        Hey Gail! Additionally, when looking through older reports of Arctic conditions, there seems to be a roughly 60 to 70 years recurring cycle. If 1979 was the approximate peak (as it seems to have been) then the low point should fall (give or take a few years) about 2012. Of course changes happen most slowly around the maxima and minima, but the rate of increase should pick up for another average around the end of the 2020’s and another peak around the early 2040s.

        If we do, in fact, get a new period of low solar activity (and increased cosmic rays and more clouds the cooling might very well hit sooner and quicker. Personally, I am hoping for as long a warm period as we can get. Humanity needs it.

    • Gator69 says:

      They are already above the average of the last 9000 years. Dr Ofwhat earns another F.

      • Dr. A says:

        That might actually be relevant if Tony’s graph used the average from last 9000 years. But it doesn’t. Looks like gator doesn’t have the pre-req’s for this class.

        of electrical engineering

      • gator69 says:

        Dr Ofwhat, you asked, “When do you predict Arctic sea ice extent will go above average levels?“. And I gave you a very meaningful answer, which apparently went over your head. How stupid are you to not get it? Are numbers greater than two digits are a problem for you doc?

        F-

        • Gail Combs says:

          Dr Ofwhat is really great at setting up strawmen he can knockdown instead of dealing with the reality that the earth has been slowly COOLING for the last 65 million years.

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_temperature_record#/media/File:65_Myr_Climate_Change.png

          And temperatures have taken a real nose dive in the past five million years. (Ain’t a geologic perspective fun?)

          https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/iceland-1.gif

          https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/capture101.jpg

          From newsweek – A Cooling World
          https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/screenhunter_394-may-21-04-37.jpg

          I am old enough to remember the ‘Coming Ice Age’ scare since I was in high school and college at the time.

          More important Nigel Calder was a journalist with a physics degree reporting on science at the time.

          Calder spent a lifetime spotting and explaining the big discoveries in all branches of science, from particle physics to human social behaviour. He was a science writer on the original staff of New Scientist in 1956. He became editor of that magazine in 1962. From 1966 until his death, he worked as an independent author and television scriptwriter. For his work for BBC-TV in scripting and sometimes presenting a long succession of “science specials”, filmed world-wide and typically 2 hours in duration with accompanying books, Calder won the UNESCO Kalinga Prize for the Popularization of Science.

          Calder was a true Journalist, may he rest in peace.

          Kukla warned President Nixon

          Those who rewrite the history of climate science to suit the man-made global warming hypothesis hate to be reminded that global cooling and the threat of a new ice age rang alarm bells in the 1960s and 1970s. In the Orwellian manner they try to airbrush out the distinguished experts involved, and to say it was just a scare story dreamed up by stupid reporters like me.

          No, we didn’t make it up. I was present in Rome in 1961 when global cooling was already the main concern at a conference of the World Meteorological Organization and Unesco (see the Unesco reference). The discussions were led by Hubert Lamb of the UK Met Office, who went on to found the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.

          A persistent concern of Lamb and others was that the world might return to a Little Ice Age like that of 300 years ago. But the improving knowledge of glacial history, and especially the apparent brevity of warm interglacials, prompted anxiety about a full-blown ice age. George Kukla, together with Robert Matthews of Brown University, convened a conference in 1972 entitled “The Present Interglacial: How and When will it End?”, and reported it in Science magazine.

          Kukla and Matthews alerted President Richard Nixon, and as a result the US Administration set up a Panel on the Present Interglacial involving the State Department and other agencies. None of us knew then that the mid-century cooling was about to be punctuated by a warming spell from the late 1970s to the mid 1990s.

  9. Cam says:

    And Crystal Serenity left from Alaska yesterday for its 3 week tour through the NW Passage. Good thing they’ll have an icebreaker (Ernest Shackleton) meeting them as they enter the Canadian Archipelago.

    • Dr. A says:

      It is a good thing, but they may not need an icebraker.
      On August 9, 2016, the VIIRS instrument aboard the Suomi NPP satellite captured this true-color image of the Northern Hemisphere featuring a nearly ice-free Northwest Passage.

      • Neal S says:

        And we all know that in theory, “nearly ice-free” is good enough. What is the difference between theory and practice? In theory, there IS no difference between theory and practice. In practice there can be a HUGE difference between theory and practice.

  10. Steven Mosher says:

    Too funny

    Your JULY “forecast” had no Numbers..

    here are actual forecasts from JUNE.

    https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2016/june

    7 forecasts had 2016 ice greater than 2015

    In JULY the same month you did your “forecast”

    17 forecasts had 2016 greater than 2015

    https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2016/july

    Is there a reason why you are unable to put a number on a forecast?

    • tonyheller says:

      I wonder why Mosher’s alarmist buddies tell a completely different story when they talk to the press? Mosher’s world of plausible deniability is not how real scientists operate.

      Arctic could become ice-free for first time in more than 100,000 years, claims leading scientist

      Professor Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University predicts we could see ‘an area of less than one million square kilometres for September of this year’
      Saturday 4 June 2016

    • Latitude says:

      Is there a reason why you….

      Are constantly bringing Tony’s name up on WUWT…
      …and complaining about his name being brought up?

      Attacking him on a blog where he can’t even defend himself?

      you sound like some jilted little girl…
      ..or a democrat

      • Gail Combs says:

        “…Attacking him on a blog where he can’t even defend himself?…”

        Sounds more like a coward.

      • Steven Mosher says:

        Is there a reason why you….

        “Are constantly bringing Tony’s name up on WUWT…
        …and complaining about his name being brought up?”

        Ya. Its a good deed.

        Further, I have no issue with his name being brought up. My complaint is that the credibility of WUWT suffers when people regurgitate Goddards phony crap. It will make it very hard for Anthony to publish his important paper.

        Next question?

        No wait… my turn

        Do you think 2016 will have less ice than 2015?

        or do you agree with Goddard?

        • Latitude says:

          not until you answer mine….

          Attacking him on a blog where he can’t even defend himself?

          yes, you’ve taken issue with his name being brought up…
          That is Anthony’s blog, he said he doesn’t want it brought up.

        • Sunsettommy says:

          Here is Anthony Watts reply to your smarmy comment you made there:

          ” Steven Mosher
          August 19, 2016 at 9:49 am

          Too funny.

          Modelled data from a skeptic.

          And whats even funnier is you picked a model that hasnt been validated.

          There is a reason why they they launch a new satellite…

          Current models of volume aint so great.

          But typical skeptic, the science says these estimates of volume are not so great, so you IGNORE
          the science and post the “data” as IF it were observations.

          [just because you are a know-it-all doesn’t mean everybody else is, but typical Mosher rant, no links, no citations, just assertions with snark- you need to step up your own game. -Anthony]:

          https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/08/19/nasa-highly-unlikely-that-this-years-summertime-sea-ice-minimum-extent-will-set-a-new-record/#comment-2281344

          LOL

    • Sunsettommy says:

      Mosher, is there a reason why you don’t come back to support your comment?

      Tony, backed up his statement with hard data,that yes there are more ice now than last year. That Wadhams is wrong….. again who once again make a laughably wrong prediction.

      The really funny part is why are warmists so worried about the level of ice in the Arctic anyway, since it doesn’t support the AGW conjecture at all.

      • Steven Mosher says:

        “Mosher, is there a reason why you don’t come back to support your comment?”

        Huh. My comment stands for itself

        1. Goddard Cherry picks a few reports in the news.
        2. He Neglects to mention the DISAGREEMENT between
        scientists.
        3. He neglects to consider ALL the data.
        4. He compares his July statement with statements made earlier
        by others.
        5. An Apples to apples comparison, shows that some scientists
        ALSO thought 2016 would not beat 2015.
        6. It is true that Some thought 2016 would be 2015 and even some thought it would be record.

        Now, 2016 will be very interesting. Depending on the cyclone
        wreaking havok on the thin ice now ( it could compact or expand) Goddard may have spiked his balls before crossing into the end zone.

        http://arctic-roos.org/observations/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic

        Personally, forecasting Ice is a crap shoot. We know one thing.
        The world is warming and as it warms the arctic ice will shrink..There is no real consensus on when this will happen. and yes some nutters try to grab headlines with aggressive forecasts. Wait for ar6 if you want to know what the “science” really has to say.

        http://arctic-roos.org/observations/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic

        • Jl says:

          SM-“..the Arctic ice will melt…and yes some nutters try to grab headlines with aggressive forecasts.” Well, at least you have Al Gore finally figured out.

        • Latitude says:

          Wait for ar6 if you want to know what the “science” really has to say.
          ====
          So we’re supposed to wait on the IPCC…
          …that has done exactly everything you accuse Tony of doing??

          • Steven Mosher says:

            No, the IPCC does actually issue Errata when they make mistakes.

            Tony just lies when he makes mistakes..

          • David A says:

            Like using Greenpeace and the WWW to make alarmist claims.

            Who gives a rat’s arse what the IPCC says about future arctic sea ice extent. The got Antarctica wrong, they over predicted trophspheric warming by more then double, and there global harms from CO2 are not happening, but the benefits are.

          • Me says:

            Mosh, you are full of shit! And I served under the UN and seen and know the bullshit and red tape behind it.

          • Me says:

            One would think that you can get anything ya wanted to make things work, but the the reality is I had to McGiver things in order to make them work. It was the do more with less thang theme! And don’t tell me that I didn’t because I lived it!

      • Steven Mosher says:

        “Tony, backed up his statement with hard data,that yes there are more ice now than last year. That Wadhams is wrong….. again who once again make a laughably wrong prediction.”

        I’ll note that many in the community ( Gavin for example ) have called out Wadhams for his wild statements.

        IF you want to know what THE SCIENCE says… consult Ar5

        “Based on an assessment of the subset of models that most closely reproduce the climatological mean state and 1979௅2012 trend of the Arctic sea ice extent, a nearly ice-free
        Arctic Ocean in September before mid-century is likely for RCP8.5 (medium confidence)
        (see Figures SPM.7 and SPM.8). A projection of when the Arctic might become nearly ice-free
        in September in the 21st century cannot be made with confidence for the other scenarios.
        {11.3, 12.4, 12.5} ”

        THAT is what the science says.

        1. Under a Very HIGH emissions scenario, it’s likely that you will see ice free by MID CENTURY
        2. Under other scenarios.. we cant say

        Of course nothing prevents various nutjobs on all sides from saying
        1. It will recover!!
        2. Its doomed this year!

        But if you want to be on solid ground and not slippery ice… read ar5 and ignore what you read in the news.

        • Gator69 says:

          Ice melts. Always has and always will. There is currently more ice in the Arctic than the average of the past 9000 years, but just keep cherry picking 1979 to whatever suits your agenda.

          • Gail Combs says:

            Just do not mention the three years before the summer of 1978!

            Sea Ice Cover and Related Atmospheric Conditions in Arctic Canada During the Summer of 1978 “However, the total area of open water in the Canadian Arctic during the summer of 1978 was much smaller than in the summers of 1975,1976, and 1977 (dey et al., 1979).”

          • Steven Mosher says:

            repeat after me gail
            CAA is not the whole arctic

          • Steven Mosher says:

            “There is currently more ice in the Arctic than the average of the past 9000 years, but just keep cherry picking 1979 to whatever suits your agenda.”

            Sorry, I am not a big fan of Proxies for Ice cover.
            Not a big fan of proxies for temperatures.

            However, IF you have data on ice cover
            and IF you have the code you used to make this claim, Then I would be glad to audit your science.

            IF you base your claims on crap you read but never replicated, then come back when you actually have some data to discuss.

            So spare me the links to papers that dont supply data and code.. I have no time for BS

          • Gator69 says:

            Awwwww, is somebody afraid of contradictory evidence? :lol:

            No confirmation bias from the Moshpup. He’s really a genius! He knows how to quantify man’d contribution to the climate even though he cannot identify or quantify all forcings. Just ask him, and he’ll tell ya!

            Friar Mosher has spoken!

          • Steven Mosher says:

            “Ice melts. Always has and always will. There is currently more ice in the Arctic than the average of the past 9000 years,”

            wrong gator.

            But go ahead, show the how you calculated the average of the past 9000 years..

          • Gator69 says:

            Actually Moshpup liar, the average was calculated not by me, but in a peer reviewed journal. But apparently you are ignorant of the subject. Can’t say I’m surprised.

        • Sunsettommy says:

          Mosh,

          You are so freaking stupid! since CURRENTLY according to the NCDC,it is over 5.6 million which is definitely higher than your ha ha ha…… ice free level of <1 million of Ice in the Arctic.

          The melt season is nearly over,temperatures are already started it downward spiral.

          Another year of failed "Ice free" Arctic prediction is obviously easy to see.

        • Latitude says:

          You know Mosh….it would really help if you guys got one prediction right
          Why don’t you start there

        • David A says:

          So you failed to respond to there being more ice mass this year.

      • Steven Mosher says:

        “Tony, backed up his statement with hard data,that yes there are more ice now than last year. That Wadhams is wrong….. again who once again make a laughably wrong prediction.”

        No Tony predicted that 2016 would have more ice than 2015

        he used this chart to prove it

        http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/osisaf_nh_iceextent_daily_5years_en.png

        Not looking so good for him..

      • Steven Mosher says:

        “Mosher, is there a reason why you don’t come back to support your comment?”

        be careful what you wish for

        • Me says:

          Is there a reason we should be careful? seems you know something we don’t! Why?

          • Sunsettommy says:

            He doesn’t know since he is busy misleading people with warmist bullcrap.

          • Me says:

            Problem is them pricks are leading others on and putting them in danger with their BS. The dilemma is we tried to tell them but they won’t listen, So what to do now?

          • Me says:

            Should it be the libertarian thing where they did it to them selves, or the liberal thing and if they get in trouble all on their own that we send people in to save them, or the conservative thing that if is wasn’t a sanctioned mission then they are on their own until there is a public out cry and then the MSM gets all over it and blames it on the nearest conservative of the day to but bonus points fot the next liberal running for office! Because that seems to be the way it is!

  11. John F Hultquist says:

    Just a reminder:
    It is generally accepted that an ‘ice-free’ Arctic is 1 million km2 or less.

    I have no idea who decides such things or what “generally accepted” means.

    But surprisingly, “ice free” does not mean free of ice. Who knew?

    • Latitude says:

      …the size of Egypt

    • CheshireRed says:

      It gives them a free margin of 1 million km2 to play with. On a par with isostatic rebound adding to sea level rise. File in the total bollocks stakes.

    • Jason Calley says:

      Hey John, yes, “ice free” now means one million square kilometers of ice.

      Meanwhile, a current ice area which is one and a half million square kilometers below average is a catastrophic ice loss, the destruction of an enormous, planet destroying, and unprecedented area.

      The CAGW alarmists see no contradiction.

      • Sunsettommy says:

        Jason, the same confused bunch seem unaware that for long periods of time earlier in the Holocene,there was little to no SUMMER ice in the Arctic,while the CO2 were hovering around the 260-280 ppm level.

        • Steven Mosher says:

          too funny a skeptic who believes in proxies for ice cover

          lemme guess, you have also doubted the accuracy of satellites

          • Sunsettommy says:

            Too funny that you didn’t know that there are a number of published science papers making this claim of such little to no Summer ice.

            Now you are going to say “peer reviewed” science papers that have never been refuted and retracted,bad because they hurt your feeling?

            You are all wind and piss,Mosh.

          • Sunsettommy says:

            No I never doubted the overwhelming fact that Satellite temperature data are far more comprehensive and accurate than ground based temperature recording stations.

            Meanwhile Dr. Mann in his insane attempt to disappear the MWP and LIA with his bogus “hockey stick” stupidity was mostly based on……………….. Proxies and long known very low resolution grade tree rings.

            You are quickly being made a fool of here,as you make it easy to expose your illogical thinking.

          • Steven Mosher says:

            “Too funny that you didn’t know that there are a number of published science papers making this claim of such little to no Summer ice.”

            Really?

            Go ahead and

            1. Cite them
            2. Show what the consensus is about these papers.

            Or just read Ar5.

            Until Ar6 comes out, AR5 is your best guide to the science..

            here is a hint

            1. Dont believe what you read in newspapers,
            especially old ones.
            2. Dont believe what you read in a few random
            papers that have not stood the test of time..

          • Sunsettommy says:

            Really you didn’t know that such papers existed?

            Dr. Meier himself cited a paper on the blog you commonly visit,Watts Up With That?

            “Can the Arctic really become sea ice-free during summer?

            It has been suggested that the Arctic really can’t lose all its sea ice during summer because there isn’t enough energy to melt all of the ice in the short summer. There are a couple of reasons why this thinking is faulty.

            First, we know the Arctic can potentially lose all its sea ice during summer because it has done so in the past. Examination of several proxy records (e.g., sediment cores) of sea ice indicate ice-free or near ice-free summer conditions for at least some time during the period of 15,000 to 5,000 years ago (Polyak et al., 2010) when Arctic temperatures were not much warmer than today.”

            https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/14/nsidcs-dr-walt-meier-part-2/

            There are others out there,that you should find easily,if you dare.

          • Gail Combs says:

            I already put up two of the early Holocene Ice Free Arctic papers that Mosh ignored so I will put a couple up again.

            Ice free Arctic Ocean, an Early Holocene analogue.

            Authors: Funder, S.; Kjaer, K. H.

            Publication: American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2007, abstract #PP11A-0203

            Abstract
            Extensive systems of wave generated beach ridges along the North Greenland coasts show that these areas once saw seasonally open water. In addition to beach ridges, large amounts of striated boulders in and on the marine sediments from the same period also indicate that the ocean was open enough for ice bergs to drift along the shore and drop their loads. Presently the North Greenland coastline is permanently beleaguered by pack ice, and ice bergs are very rare and locked up in the sea ice. Predictions of the rapidly decreasing sea ice in the Arctic Ocean generally point to this area as the last to become ice free in summer. We therefore suggest that the occurrence of wave generated shores and abundant ice berg dropped boulders indicate that the Arctic Ocean was nearly free of sea ice in the summer at the time when they were formed. The beach ridges occur as isostatically raised “staircases”, and C14-dated curves for relative sea level change show that they were formed in the Early Holocene. A large set of samples of molluscs from beach ridges and marine sediments were collected in the summer of 2007, and are presently being dated to give a precise dating of the ice free interval. Preliminary results indicate that it fell within the interval from c. 8.5 to c. 6 ka – being progressively shorter from south to north. We therefore conclude that for a preiod in the Early Holocene, probably for a millenium or more, the Arctic Ocean was free of sea ice at least for shorter periods in the summer.

            New insights on Arctic Quaternary climate variability from palaeo-records and numerical modelling

            Authors: Martin Jakobssona, Antony Longb, Ólafur Ingólfssonc, Kurt H. Kjærd, Robert F. Spielhagene

            Abstract

            Terrestrial and marine geological archives in the Arctic contain information on environmental change through Quaternary interglacial–glacial cycles…. In this review we identify several areas that are distinct to the present programme and highlight some recent advances presented in this special issue concerning Arctic palaeo-records and natural variability, including spatial and temporal variability of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Arctic Ocean sediment stratigraphy, past ice shelves and marginal marine ice sheets, and the Cenozoic history of Arctic Ocean sea ice in general and Holocene oscillations in sea ice concentrations in particular. The combined sea ice data suggest that the seasonal Arctic sea ice cover was strongly reduced during most of the early Holocene and there appear to have been periods of ice free summers in the central Arctic Ocean.This has important consequences for our understanding of the recent trend of declining sea ice, and calls for further research on causal links between Arctic climate and sea ice.

    • Steven Mosher says:

      Ice free is defined in two different ways.

      Because of the difficulty of melting Ice in the CAA, some people use a 1M
      number.
      Ar5 uses a different definition, 1M for 5 straight years

      Which you choose doesnt make any difference and doesnt change the facts.

      the planet is warming. there was an LIA. and man is responsible for a portion of that warming. And In a warming world, SST will increase, and as it increases, the arctic ice cover will shrink. Not monotonically.

      • Gator69 says:

        Oh look! Mosher claims to know all forcings, and their contributions! Amazing! :lol:

        • Steven Mosher says:

          Oh look! Mosher claims to know all forcings,

          Err No.

          I’m unfamiliar with the unicorn forcings that skeptics use to explain the changes..

          But yes.. generally speaking warmer water will melt ice.

          • Gator69 says:

            How can you claim to “know” man’s effect on climate when you do not even know all forcings?

            You cannot. That makes you a liar.

          • Latitude says:

            I’m unfamiliar with the unicorn forcings that skeptics use to explain the changes..

            but we’re familiar with the failed predictions of climate scientists

            There’s so many you can pick and choose…
            …one might be right

      • Gator69 says:

        Ice free is defined in two different ways.

        And Mosher is fluent in Newspeak! Big Brother has decided that “ice free” means there is ice! Brilliant!

        Now all bow down to the superior intellect that changes the meaning of words to support The Ministry of Truth.

        Mosher says “Ignorance is Strength”. And the IPCC proves he is right.

      • Gator69 says:

        Because of the difficulty of melting Ice in the CAA, some people use a 1M
        number.
        Ar5 uses a different definition, 1M for 5 straight years.

        Who knew? An area nearly twice that of Alaska is the same as zero! :lol:

        What brilliance the IPCC displays!

        War is Peace!

        • Steven Mosher says:

          Alaska is 1.78 million sq km

          and 1 million is not equal to zero.

          very simply.

          When you see the phrase “ice free” understand that this is Operational definition.

          Like “Fat Free”

          on food labelling this means less than .5 grams

          or

          Free speech..

          Doesnt mean you are free to say ANYTHING..

          Here

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operational_definition

          • RAH says:

            Funny a guy that doesn’t like proxies falls back to using the definition of an organization that accepts all kinds of proxies to make it’s case.

          • David A says:

            Mosh, geez you really steped in it.

            “Fat Free” is a poetic advertising license to promote a product, it is advocacy for a product, not science!!

            In the same manner, calling 1 million sq K “ice free” is advocacy for the busted CAGW theory. It is NOT science.

      • Sunsettommy says:

        The TRUE definition of the phrase, Ice FREE, means NO ICE at all.

        1 million is a little bit bigger than Zero.

        Don’t continue to be stupid, Mosh.

        • Steven Mosher says:

          The TRUE definition of the phrase, Ice FREE, means NO ICE at all.

          1 million is a little bit bigger than Zero.

          Don’t continue to be stupid, Mosh.

          ###############

          No, it is quite common and standard procedure for folks working in a field to adopt operational
          definitions.

          Like full employment
          Like sugar free

          heck even the gas gauge on my car shows the tank as empty when it still has gas in it.

          If this confuses you, I am sorry I can explain things for U but I cannot understand them for you

          • David A says:

            Wow, now the promoters of “sugar free” are scientists. Yes, it is quite common for advertisers to exaggerate. Only in a scientific illerates world does that make it ok to call 1 million sq K of ice, “ice free”.

    • Steven Mosher says:

      “But surprisingly, “ice free” does not mean free of ice. Who knew?

      Everyone who read Ar5 WG1

      • Gator69 says:

        Yes, and all those that read the Koran know that Muhammad is the prophet of God.

        And actually Mosher, I read AR5, and yet still know the difference between ice free and ice. But stick with your Ignorance is Strength mantra.

        • Steven Mosher says:

          ding dong.. then you should understand what a operational definition is and why it is immaterial.

          Further, if you had read Ar5 then why didnt you clarify that Ar5 definition was different than the one typically seen in the press?

          I suspect you cant spell Ar5

          • Gator69 says:

            You can suspect anything you like. I know that ice free means no ice.

            But then for you guys, “Ignorance is Strength” is true, the less the public knows about your scam, the stronger your arguments.

          • Sunsettommy says:

            I suspect you can’t convince anyone that 1 million is the same as 0.

            Really are you typing from the asylum?

          • Latitude says:

            it’s the size of Texas and New Mexico

          • Gail Combs says:

            Sunsettommy says:

            “I suspect you can’t convince anyone that 1 million is the same as 0….”

            GEE, I ought to try that on my bank!

            SIR, I know that the computers say my balance is zero but Mosher and the IPCC assure me that Zero = million so would you kindly amend my statement to read $99,999 instead of zero?

            Thank you much appreciated.

          • gator69 says:

            Hey Gail! We’re finally millionaires! Woohoo!

            (Disclaimer: Before cashing this check, see Friar Moshpups for details.)

          • Gail Combs says:

            Thought you would like that one Gator.

            Do you think your bank will go along with Mosh Pup’s idea that zero = 1 million?

          • gator69 says:

            Gail, it’s settled bankling.

          • Vince says:

            And I suspect that you can’t spell “can’t.

          • Steven Mosher says:

            “You can suspect anything you like. I know that ice free means no ice.”

            Actually it means less than 1M

            in the same way that the FDA defines “Sugar Free”
            as meaning less than 1g of sugar

            terms of art, conventional definitions… its all pretty standard.

            Especially since you have the following problem.

            The Accuracy of the coast data( the land mask ) is such that you cannot with precision distinguish ice that is on the land at the coast
            from ice that is just in the water. Especially
            along the northern border of the CAA. Futher the error in the spatial estimates is rather large

            When we finally get down to 1M sq km it will
            be a sliver along the CAA coast.

            you probably wont live to see that since the science says we are only confident it will happen by 2050..

            of course you want to listen to extremists and get your science from newspapers.. good skepticism there bud

          • Steven Mosher says:

            “I suspect you can’t convince anyone that 1 million is the same as 0.

            Really are you typing from the asylum?

            ##########

            err No.

            zero is not the same as 1
            the phrase “ice free” has an OPERATIONAL
            definition.

            Like the FDA, they define sugar free as having less than 1 gram of sugar

            Now, why do we adopt operational or conventional definitions?

            One reason is measurement accuracy.

            But lets suppose we said ice free meant EXACTLY 0 ice floating in the water.

            Some satellites have low resolution (25km per grid side ) So they could not see a patch of ice 20km by 20km.

            And then you’d have the problem of fast ice..

            so, its convenient to adopt a operational definition.

          • Gator69 says:

            Moshpup liar, the Artic is sugar free. Ice free means no ice, unless you are a weasel alarmist trying to save face from your earlier asinine claims.

          • Sunsettommy says:

            Mosher, can’t let go of making a complete fool of himself. He gets stuck on the IPCC grade Ar5 definition pap,thinks <1 million equals 0 (ice free).

            Your analogies are stupid too because <1 million is not the same as zero. Ice FREE means ZERO ice.

            Give it up.

          • Gail Combs says:

            The correct term is not ‘sugar’ free but NONE detected.

            The FDA/USDA also allows so many rat turds and rat hairs per unit, I kid you not.

            The Food Defect Action Levels
            Levels of natural or unavoidable defects in foods that present no health hazards for humans

            As an example COMMODITIES AND DEFECT ACTION LEVELS for APPLE BUTTER:

            Mold
            (AOAC 975.51)

            Average of mold count is 12% or more
            ……………

            Rodent filth
            (AOAC 945.76)

            Average of 4 or more rodent hairs per 100 grams of apple butter
            …………………..

            Insects
            (AOAC 945.76)

            Average of 5 or more whole or equivalent insects (not counting mites, aphids, thrips, or scale insects) per 100 grams of apple butter

          • Latitude says:

            When we finally get down to 1M sq km it will
            be a sliver along the CAA coast.
            ====
            Just for fun overlay Egypt in the Arctic Ocean….or both Texas and New Mexico combined
            Because both of those equal 1M sq km

            …you will be surprised just how big your sliver is

            ;)

      • David A says:

        Yes the unscientific alarmists rag of the IPCC decided 1 million sq K means 0, and Mish says that is ok and scientific because advertisers are allowed to exaggerate.

        Flash news, nuclear engineers claim new nuclear plants are radiation free.

        • David A says:

          Unknowingly Mosh demonstrates the IPCC is a promoter, not a sscientific body.

          • Me says:

            They don’t care as long as the money and the prestige of their titles are made public. But now days, I don’t thing they want their names public anymore.

  12. oldbrew says:

    ‘in the end it will all melt away quite suddenly’

    The Arctic climate scare, that is.

  13. Neal S says:

    We have a new crew blog update from SOF by Frances Gard

    http://polarocean.co.uk/today-morning-watch-things-werent-quite-idyllic-night-wed-sailed-ice-i-know-i-said-shouldnt-troubled-ice-bit-i-wrong-ice-wasnt-bad/

    Apparently he is an introvert and will not be staying aboard as long as he originally thought. He writes …

    “Over night we’d sailed into ice. I know, I said we shouldn’t be troubled by ice for a bit, I was wrong. ” and “Eight hours later when I’m back on watch we still had ice and even better, we had to divert to avoid a sandbank. Then the fog came back, typical. Luckily after another two and a half hours the ice began to clear a bit, for now.”

    “Because we’ve come further south to avoid the ice we’ve got a bit of day and night back, ish,”

    For something that isn’t supposed to be there, ice gets mentioned 17 time in his crew blog post. ( And none of those had to do with Vodka )

  14. Douglas Hoyt says:

    Just checked the Barrow sea ice webcam and a bunch of ice has drifted in close to shore.

  15. Gail Combs says:

    A bit if interesting Arctic History.

    Sea Ice Cover and Related Atmospheric Conditions in Arctic Canada During the Summer of 1978 “However, the total area of open water in the Canadian Arctic during the summer of 1978 was much smaller than in the summers of 1975, 1976, and 1977 (dey et al., 1979).”

  16. Zedekiah Smyth says:

    In Australia this ratbag celebrity scientist Brian Cox was peddling the usual lies and sadly it seems most of the flock bought his nonsense. The climate talk is at about 11 minutes in.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jguarSWDcrM

    • Sara Hall says:

      Brian Cox is now on my growing list of “useless celebrity luvvies who believe that they’re qualified to speak out on climate science”.

      • RAH says:

        If you watched him before you knew he had a huge ego and inclined to make statements of fact that are questionable.

  17. Steven Mosher says:

    “All of the highly paid government ice experts were predicting a record Arctic low or an ice-free Arctic. Meanwhile, I was predicting this :

    2016 should end up with more ice than last year

    If my prediction is correct, alarmists are in trouble – because next year will become the first year in a decade where there is a significant amount of multi-year ice on the Russian side.

    My Arctic Forecast For 2016 | Real Science

    Looks like my analysis was spot on.”

    ########################

    Looks like science is the belief in Goddards ignorance

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/osisaf_nh_iceextent_daily_5years_en.png

    Now lets Recap

    1. He claimed ALL of the highly paid experts said 2016 would have less ice.
    WRONG. Some did, some didnt. By JULY when he made this statement, 17
    of the submissions to the ice forecast had 2016 with MORE ice than 2015.
    some is not all, at least in english.

    2. He used DMI to support his claim.. so we will hold him to that until the melt season ends.

    if you asked me.. its still too close to call.. But Goddard walked out on the prediction plank… ( archived for future viewing pleasure of course…)

    Who knows, he could be right… I bet he actually looked at the 17 scientists who forecasted that 2016 would have more than 2015..

    • Sunsettommy says:

      Mosh,

      you are world class stupid because he specifically says: “All of the highly paid government ice experts were predicting a record Arctic low or an ice-free Arctic. Meanwhile, I was predicting this.”

      He then showed a number of warmists sites including the Navy making clear statements of Ice free Summer predictions,in the Arctic THIS year.

      Then he showed what it was from last year, than this year using the SAME source,showing he was indeed correct in his prediction.While you try flogging him on a different source,which still doesn’t support the idiotic Ice free prediction for this year anyway.

      August 2016,

      NSDC: 5.6 million

      NORSEX: 5.8 million

      DMI: 5.5 million

      This photo from Cryosphere shows a lot more than 1 Million in it,far more than the 2007 low:

    • Latitude says:

      ALL of the highly paid experts said 2016 would have less ice.
      WRONG. Some did, some didnt.
      ======
      ROARING LAUGHING!!!

      …covering all the bases

      • Latitude says:

        I’m still laughing….

        Mosh you’re a mess….so some of the settled science experts agree with Tony.

        Would you be so kind as to supply us ignorant knuckle draggers with a list?…………ROTFLMAO

      • Steven Mosher says:

        “…covering all the bases”

        No, covering all the bases would imply a conspiracy.
        Do you think we landed on the moon.

        If you actually READ thee various predictions, you would
        see genuine scientific disagreement..

        ie… unsettled science.

        Only in your mind, it has to be a conspiracy

        if they all agree, conspiracy
        if they disagree, they are covering bases.

        This is know as a self sealing belief.

        that is, nothing can falsify your belief in a conspiracy.

      • Gail Combs says:

        GEE! What ever happen to 97% of Climate Scientists AGREE???

  18. Jim Hunt says:

    Just in case anyone’s interested in some recent data. Can you spot the difference Tommy?

    • Gail Combs says:

      That graph is from the Great White ConJob aka Jim Hunt aka Snow White.

    • Sunsettommy says:

      Ha ha ha,

      even YOUR favored chart shows there is still a lot of summer ice this year. The very point Tony has been making for a while,that experts keeps predicting ice FREE summer in the Arctic,when it has not been close.

      Wake up Jim!

      • Jim Hunt says:

        Wake up Tommy!

        Did you read Tony’s OP? In case you missed it:

        “2016 should end up with more ice than last year”

        • Sunsettommy says:

          There is using the same source for both years.He used DMI for both years.

          You post a very different source that has the LOWEST number of any data source.

          You are a Joke.

          • Jim Hunt says:

            You evidently know not of what you speak Tommy.

            Tony’s extent graph at the top is derived from JAXA’s AMSR2 data processed using the ASI algorithm by the University of Bremen,

            My area graph above is derived from JAXA’s AMSR2 data processed using the ASI algorithm by the University of Hamburg.

        • Gail Combs says:

          And your chart, Jimmy Boy somehow LOST over a million square kilometers of ice. Not to mention you only plot three years while the Bremen Uni charts shows the last seven including the very important 2012 data.

          Thanks for the great illustration of how Liars figure and figures lie.

          • Sunsettommy says:

            He is also an idiot,since by his own words he uses algorithm from Hamburg, while Tony’s source uses the one from Bremen.

            As Gail noticed that Hunts choice is by far the lowest of the bunch,gee I wonder why………

            Jimboy can’t read,apparently to what I wrote,

            “They are using the same source for both years.He used DMI for both years.

            You post a very different source that has the LOWEST number of any data source.”

            I was correct all along.

          • Sunsettommy says:

            Meanwhile the Jimjoke ignores the significant increase in ice thickness since 2012.

            Yes I agree that he misleads with half truths and distortions.It is a common denominator of the warmist cult.

          • Sunsettommy says:

            Meanwhile Jimboy,doesn’t address the main point of this blog post,that experts that Jimmy sucks up too,have been making absurd wildly wrong Ice free Prediction for years, INCLUDING this year as well.

            It will stay above 4.5 million this year which is slightly above ice free conditions.

            Give it up warmists,you have been very wrong for years.

          • Jim Hunt says:

            Tommyrot.

            The AMSR2 instrument wasn’t launched into orbit until mid 2012, so where do you suppose the early lines on the Bremen graph come from?

          • Sunsettommy says:

            Notice that Jimmy boy ignores reality,that 4.5 million is slightly higher than IPCC’s irrational definition of ice free definition of <1 million.

            Quiz time folks, Which is higher:

            A) 4.5 million
            B) 0.0 million
            C) <1 million

            Optional question,which one is ice free,

            A) <1 million
            B) 4.5 million
            C) 0.0 million

            Take your time Mosh and Hunt, you can use your calculators and IPCC math playbook for reference.

          • Me says:

            Ice free means free of ice, not parcially free, not ice that is free because a route that you may want to use and then cant because there is Ice in the way, and suddenly that same ice isn’t rotten ice like it is always claimed.

          • Me says:

            It’s ice free or it’s not! And it’s seems that it’s not more and more. And I am not suprised that it’s not!

          • Sunsettommy says:

            Jimmy,

            you have YET to acknowledge Tony’s main point that many Arctic experts are WRONG AGAIN on making foot in the mouth predictions of no SUMMER ice. You quibble over who has the correct number of obviously existing THICKENING ice in the region.

            Why do you dodge this part all the time?

  19. Neal S says:

    Well, 6 hours ago the tweet from the SOF was
    ———
    “Ice, ice & more b****t ice” (David) “Aaaagggghhhh! Shniblfrinshinifbnrr” (Ben)
    2 different ways to describe ystrdy
    ———
    There is a new crew blog from Ben
    http://polarocean.co.uk/ice-looms-horizon-like-piece-homework-youve-trying-avoid-moving-india-find-school-exists-wel/

    “Okay, alright, I’ve just learnt that recently, very recently, ice has moved in from the north to the North West Passage, which means we’ve got lots more of it to look forward to. Shniblfrinshinifbnrr.”

    And a new ships log update from David …
    http://polarocean.co.uk/well-i-came-watch-morning-0800-ice-ice-bt-ice/

    ” ice, ice and more b****t ice. I finished my watch and the ice cleared, came back up at 1700 UTC and guess what ! yep, ice, fog and our first snow.”

    • Neal S says:

      I just noticed … the best quote from Bens blog ….

      ” Unfortunately it seems that ice is a vindictive substance and refuses to leave us alone. ”

      Funny that. The ice that wasn’t supposed to be there … somehow IS.
      This may well turn out to be the best quote from the whole expedition!

  20. Neal S says:

    And new Russian Ice Charts are up. Looking at the East Siberian Sea, our SOF should not be hoping for any short-cuts.

    http://www.nsra.ru/ru/chart_ice_es_sea/

    To the left is Ostrov Bolshoy Lyakhovskiy, which is where they are approaching from the west.

  21. Jim Hunt says:

    Shock News!!! We have a numerical prediction from a RealClimateScientist. Mr. Mosher will be overjoyed!

    Tommy says:

    “It will stay above 4.5 million this year”

    Now he just needs to specify which metric using what units. Presumably not UH AMSR2 area in square kilometers, since that’s already below 4 million. Perhaps he means DMI volume in cubic centimeters?

    • Steven Mosher says:

      They are special units calculated my the Goddard method.

      1. Find a chart that isnt being updated
      (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/)

      2. Count the pixels

      3. Multiply by a random number that yields an answer greater than 4.5M

      claim victory

        • tonyheller says:

          “It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt.”
          – Mark Twain

          • Sunsettommy says:

            Hunt and Mosher, keep ignoring the fact that full time Arctic experts are making REPEATED predictions of no summer ice, that you Tony, keep pointing out the last several years. They have been wrong over and over.

            They can’t handle knowing how often the full time arctic experts are wrong and being exposed by you,Tony over and over. That is why they attack you over and over using the lowest possible numbers they can find against you.

            Mosher, keep up his absurd <1 million of ice = no ice, in the Arctic argument. He thinks the IPCC made a credible rational definition of what ice free means. The stupidity never seems to dawn on him since he is now so wedded into the warmist propaganda machine.

            There is no precision in their thinking,which is why I am increasingly attacking them here.They make clear they will distort or even lie to keep up their fantasy over the region.

          • Gail Combs says:

            Hunt and Mosher are like cats feverishly trying to cover some very stinky cat feces aka all the failed ‘THE ARCTIC IS MELTINGGggg!’ predictions.

            They are hoping that if they toss enough mud they can completely redirect attention from the fact that the Arctic is not melting and not only is it not melting but the amount of multi-year thick ice is increasing.

            AND Mosher is only here because it is an election year and if Hitlery loses THE CAGW propagandists lose their cushy jobs pushing pseudoscience propaganda and might have to actually work for a living — OH THE HORROR!

        • Sunsettommy says:

          Why do you think the “ship of fools” were there in the first place,Jimmy?

  22. Gail Combs says:

    Jim Hunt says: “Tommyrot.

    The AMSR2 instrument wasn’t launched into orbit until mid 2012, so where do you suppose the early lines on the Bremen graph come from?

    We are talking about the 2012 LOWEST extent so the fact it was launched on May 18, 2012 and delivering data at the lowest ice extent is what matters. Also the same frequency (89 GHz) is used as on the AMSR-E instrument and the resolution of AMSR2 is similar.

    Changes in equipment have happened throughout the climate data set so BFD!

    • Gail Combs says:

      Daily AMSR2 Sea Ice Maps, which Tony used says this:

      “The research for developing, validating and improving the retrieval algorithms was done within the EU Integrated Project DAMOCLES (Developing Arctic Modeling and Observing Capabilites for Long-term Environmental Studies)

      The ASI sea ice concentration algorithm used here has been validated in several studies (Spreen et al. 2005, Spreen et al., 2008).”

      It also shows the extent in the graph at the top is ABOVE 5 million kilometers. So when Tommy says: “It will stay above 4.5 million this year” He is talking about the graph at the top of the page not some graph you pulled out of your rearend to confuse people.

      • Jim Hunt says:

        So for the purposes of this discussion it is safe to assume that Tony is predicting that:

        “Bremen Uni AMSR2 daily Arctic sea ice extent will stay above the 2015 minimum this year”

        and Tommy is predicting that:

        “Bremen Uni AMSR2 daily Arctic sea ice extent will stay above 4.5 million square kilometers this year”?

        • Gail Combs says:

          The point is the polar ice is RECOVERING from the low point during the satellite era in 2012. It is not going into a ‘DEATH SPIRAL’

          As usual you try to twist the argument so the warmists do not look like fools.

          Since the wind blowing the ice around determines the extent AND it is ice thickness that determines how much ice will melt, extent is a piss-poor perimeter to follow.

          Here is a better one although it is dependent on models. Note 2016, thanks to thicker ice is up from 2015.

          http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1.png

          This shows the amount of ice is in the 80% to 90% throughout most of the Arctic sea this August 19th

          http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png

          This is August 19th for 2012 and 2015

          http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=08&fd=19&fy=2012&sm=08&sd=19&sy=2015

          The ice sure looks a lot healthier this year, although why anyone in their right mind wants MORE ice and snow is completely beyond me.

          Warmer/wetter means MORE life, ice and snow means colder and dryer and starvation. I am sure you will be finding that out the hard way in the next decade or two. Unless of course you are one of the warped individuals who likes to see lots of people starve to death. If so please move to Venezuela.

        • Sunsettommy says:

          Then you share Mosher’s view that it will be ice free around the 4.5 million low for this summer?

          You seem to be implying this over and over since that was the number point of Tony’s post.That it will NOT be ice free once again this year.

          Read after me, Jim……..

          1,001 million is not ice free
          2,000 million is not ice free
          3,000 million is not ice free
          4,000 million is not ice free
          4.5 million (the number that scares you) is not ice free

          Stop making a fool of yourself, Jimmy!

          • Gail Combs says:

            AND one million minus 1 square kilometer is also not ‘Ice Free’ when your ship rams into it and sinks to the bottom of the sea.

            (At this point, at the end of the Holocene, if we get below one million k^2 of ice, I would be very worried about the sun going super nova or a giant flare or some other astronomical catastrophe and not the Arctic..)

    • Sunsettommy says:

      He is being a misleading asshole.

      From Remote Sensing are THREE different satellites that were scanning the Polar regions:

      AMSR2 / AMSRE

      ” AMSR-2 on JAXA’s GCOM-W1 spacecraft, launched May 18, 2012. This instrument is currently operating.
      AMSR-E on NASA’s EOS Aqua spacecraft, launched May 4, 2002. The instrument stopped rotating Oct 4, 2011.
      AMSR on JAXA’s ADEOS-II spacecraft, launched Dec 14, 2002. The satellite solar panels failed Oct 25, 2003.”

      http://www.remss.com/missions/amsr

      As anyone can see there has been nearly continous coverage from year 2002 onward,AMSR2 is simply the LATEST version in operation.Thus data exist from 2002……..

      • Jim Hunt says:

        Straight from the Bremen Uni AMSR2 web page:

        Since July 3, 2012, AMSR2 data is displayed which is adapted with the same parameters as its predecessor AMSR-E. The fit parameters are not deduced by comparing it during an overlap period to another time series. Hence, the data ought to be treated with caution until confirmation by independent sources.

      • Sunsettommy says:

        Yawn, FOUR years later they still treat it with caution,but still use the 2007 low as part of their ice is going to vanish propaganda.

        Selective are they, jimmy?

        Most warmist arctic scientists produce the satellite data from year 2002 onward anyway,which seems to contradict you.

      • Sunsettommy says:

        Dr. Meier seems to accept ALL the satellite sea ice data back to 2002, as shown here:

        “A decade ago, this year’s sea ice extent would have set a new record low and by a fair amount. Now, we’re kind of used to these low levels of sea ice – it’s the new normal.”

        https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/08/19/nasa-highly-unlikely-that-this-years-summertime-sea-ice-minimum-extent-will-set-a-new-record/

        He clearly says there will be no ice free conditions this year.Care to argue with that Jimmy?

        • Jim Hunt says:

          I suggest you read the start of Tony’s article again Tommy:

          “All of the highly paid government ice experts were predicting a record Arctic low or an ice-free Arctic. Meanwhile, I was predicting this :

          2016 should end up with more ice than last year.”

          However according to you:

          “Dr. Meier… clearly says there will be no ice free conditions this year”

          and according to your link to WUWT:

          “NASA: ‘…highly unlikely that this year’s summertime sea ice minimum extent will set a new record’”

  23. Gail Combs says:

    Steven Mosher says @ August 18, 2016 at 5:11 pm

    Ice free is defined in two different ways.

    Because of the difficulty of melting Ice in the CAA, some people use a 1M
    number.

    Ar5 uses a different definition, 1M for 5 straight years

    So I mention an article
    Sea Ice Cover and Related Atmospheric Conditions in Arctic Canada During the Summer of 1978

    “However, the total area of open water in the Canadian Arctic during the summer of 1978 was much smaller than in the summers of 1975,1976, and 1977 (dey et al., 1979).”
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    And the Mosh Pup replies with
    Steven Mosher says: @ August 18, 2016 at 6:16 pm

    repeat after me gail
    CAA is not the whole arctic
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    HEY, MOSH you just said Because of the difficulty of melting Ice in the CAA, some people use a 1M number. So if getting the ice to melt in the CAA is so very very difficult that they have to redefine ‘Ice Free’ as 1 million square kilometers then logic says that ice melting in the CAA is a really really good indicator of less ice in the Arctic. Of course you can also add in the photos showing nuclear submarines surfacing at the north pole in the late 1950s and early 60s in rather large holes. An objective look at all sources from that period rules out your preconceived ideas.

    WUWT even had an article on it:
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/26/ice-at-the-north-pole-in-1958-not-so-thick/

  24. Pingback: ARCTIC ALARMISM : Cambridge University Professor Accused Of “Crying Wolf” | Climatism

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