One Million Dollars Says 2017 Won’t Be The Hottest Year Ever

Mark Boslough used to work in the same group as me at Sandia Labs, and seems to like lying about me on Facebook and Twitter – in his official capacity as a government employee.

He predicts Gavin Schmidt will set a new record for data tampering in 2017, and declare 2017 to be the hottest year ever.

$25,000 Says Global Warming Is Real | The Huffington Post

I’m offering him a one million dollar bet that lower troposphere temperatures measured by UAH satellite will not show 2017 to be the hottest year ever.

Over the last ten months, the lower troposphere is cooling at the fastest rate this century, and second fastest on record. Satellites show little or no warming over the past twenty years, but Gavin’s fake temperatures show lots of warming. Boslough is betting that Gavin will ramp up his cheating to spectacular new levels in 2017.

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

Global Satellites: 2016 not Statistically Warmer than 1998 « Roy Spencer, PhD

I doubt that even Gavin Schmidt can cheat enough to make 2017 warmer than 2016 or 1998, particularly since he is unlikely to be in control of NASA’s fake temperature record for the entire year.

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16 Responses to One Million Dollars Says 2017 Won’t Be The Hottest Year Ever

  1. Robert says:

    Let’s hope that the incoming administration offers Gavin a (very small) redundancy package….or maybe just fires him for extreme incompetence and scientific fraud

  2. Steve Case says:

    … particularly since he is unlikely to be in control of NASA’s fake temperature record for the entire year.

    First chuckle of the day (-:

  3. John Niclasen says:

    Most land is found in the Northern Hemisphere, where still 60.7% is water. Less land is found in the Southern Hemisphere, where 80.9% is water.

    From a thermodynamic viewpoint, there is no such thing as a global temperature, because the Earth system is not in thermodynamic equilibrium.

    And when one hemisphere behave one way different from the other hemisphere, it is even harder to say, if the globe as a whole is warming up or cooling down.

    Some argue, that to get a quilified guess, if the Earth is warming or cooling overall, one has to weight the two hemispheres differently. Some say 2 to 1.

    The following plot is what you get, if you weight the SH (Southern Hemisphere) temperature statistics from UAH 2 to 1 to the NH (Norther Hemisphere) temperature statistics also from UAH.

    Now 2016 is cooler than 1998.

  4. CheshireRed says:

    The trends on that Wood For Trees graph are damning. OK the temp gradient is in absolute terms small but the diverging trends between real data and Gavins fake BS is the real story, revealing a comparison Schmidt doesn’t want the public to see. As ever his silence is deafening. Perhaps this time The End really IS nigh?

  5. Pingback: One Million Dollars Says 2017 Won’t Be The Hottest Year Ever — The Deplorable Climate Science Blog | Talmidimblogging

  6. Gail Combs says:

    Let’s hope that Congress confirms all of Trump’s cabinet picks.

    That is the next big fight and the Progressives are ALREADY gearing up.

    Time to get every one you know who supported trump to burn up the phone lines and tell our Congress Critters, Trump Won, WE put him there not the loud mouth crybabies and WE can take YOU out and put someone else in if you DO NOT SUPPORT Trump — Capisce?

  7. Brad says:

    Even if 2017 was the “hottest year EVER” that wouldn’t be evidence of global warming by itself. To claim that one hot year, or even one hot decade is evidence of lasting and meaningful changes to the global climate is absurd, especially in the face of no other metric to validate their claim (i.e. satellite data). These fools lack even the most basic understanding of science.

    • David Keech says:

      Exactly! Single years mean nothing to climate. You’d have to be an idiot to think that just comparing two consecutive years could tell you anything about long-term climate.

      What you’d need to make a sensible bet is something like a running 30 year average. That would be enough to take the random variation of weather out of the equation and just leave the climate signal.

      Goddard should challenge Boslough to a bet on whether the running 30 year average will be colder at the end of 2017 than the end of 2016. You could use UAH or GISS if you want to tempt him into the bet with flattery. He’ll probably make excuses why he can’t take the bet anyway.

      Make sure to get him to put the money in escrow early on so he doesn’t reneg on the payout.

  8. art says:

    walter white used to work at sandia labs……. but that is none of my business.

  9. Robert Sheaffer says:

    It’s not true that the satellites show no warming. They show a very, very slight warming over the past 18 years. About 1/20 as much as NASA is claiming!

    • AndyG55 says:

      From 1997 to just at the start of the El Nino, there was zero trend in RSS.

      The transient of the El Nino has now dropped just below that zero trend line.

      UAH has a bit further to drop, but I expect it to get there in January

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