Visualizing Government Arctic Sea Ice Fraud

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.”

– Upton Sinclair

Government agencies like NOAA, NASA and NSIDC start their sea ice graphs in 1979, in order to make it look like there is a linear decline in sea ice.

NOAA claims they don’t have satellite data before 1979, but they are lying. The 1990 IPCC report showed NOAA satellite data back to 1973, which was much lower than 1979.

1990 IPCC Report

In fact, there is reasonably good ice data going back to the 1920’s, which shows that ice extent was very low in the 1940’s and 1950’s.

Projecting the climatic effects of increasing carbon dioxide (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect

This agrees with historical accounts at the time.

The Changing Face of the Arctic; The Changing Face of the Arctic – The New York Times

I combined the DOE and IPCC graphs, to show what government agencies are up to. They start their linear graphs at the century maximum sea ice extent.

Then fraudsters like John Cook release fake graphs like this, so that they can blame it on “human activity”

Human activity is driving retreat of Arctic sea ice

I do agree that human activity is driving Arctic sea ice fraud by government agencies. There is zero evidence that CO2 emissions have any influence on Arctic ice however.

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118 Responses to Visualizing Government Arctic Sea Ice Fraud

  1. Jim Hunt says:

    Tony – Where do NOAA claim, and I quote:

    “They don’t have satellite data before 1979”

    Do NSIDC claim the same thing?

    • tonyheller says:

      “the melt area is the largest since the beginning of the satellite era in 1979”

      • Jim Hunt says:

        At the risk of repeating myself:

        “Do NSIDC claim the same thing?”

        • tonyheller says:

          They have used the same terminology many times.

        • Marty says:

          NSIDC data is nothing like the original data used by the IPCC.

          The only spot NSIDC data matches IPCC 1990 in 2 years 72 73, the rest is complete different because NSIDC have altered the crap out of their data

      • Brad says:

        They also go on to admit that the observed melting is not unusual.

        “ice core records indicate that this type of melting occurs about once every 150 years.”

      • Jim Hunt says:

        Tony – Why do you claim the graph that you attribute to John Cook is “fake”?

        • Sunsettommy says:


          Did you even bother to see the chart in the link?

          “Mean sea ice anomalies, 1953-2012: Sea ice extent departures from monthly means for the Northern Hemisphere. For January 1953 through December 1979, data have been obtained from the UK Hadley Centre and are based on operational ice charts and other sources. For January 1979 through December 2012, data are derived from passive microwave (SMMR / SSM/I). Image by Walt Meier and Julienne Stroeve, National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, Boulder.”

          Vague….. 1953-1979

          “For January 1953 through December 1979, data have been obtained from the UK Hadley Centre and are based on operational ice charts and other sources. “

        • AndyG55 says:

          “Why do you claim the graph that you attribute to John Cook is “fake”?”

          Its John Cook.. so its the obvious starting theory.

          • AndyG55 says:

            Actually , from Cook, lying and fakery and climate change denail would nearly be at the “law” stage, almost up with there Jimbo and griff……. probability = 1

          • AndyG55 says:

            darn typing

            “climate change DENIAL”

        • Jim Hunt says:

          It seems that, unlike Tony, Tommy managed to follow the link that said “from National Snow and Ice Data Center”

          Hence, contrary to Tony’s assertion in his OP, the graph isn’t “fake” and it wasn’t “released by John Cook”.

          • AndyG55 says:

            The graph IS FAKE, Jimbo…. just like your putrid little web site.

            EVERYTHING about it DENIES climate history

            Jimbo is at the very peak of CLIMATE CHANGE DENIAL, aren’t you Jimbo.

          • AndyG55 says:

            Want to know how we KNOW it is absolutely fake, Jimbo..

            Because you have arrived and are trying to say it isn’t.

            That is more than enough proof for any rational person to KNOW it is FAKE.

          • Jim Hunt says:

            I somehow doubt your evidence would hold up in a court of law Andy.

            However you could plausibly describe Tony’s Figure 5.2 as “fake”, but a graph on the official NSIDC web site?

            I think not!

          • Sunsettommy says:

            Read it again, Jim. It is vague for the period from 1953-1979.

            ” For January 1953 through December 1979, data have been obtained from the UK Hadley Centre and are based on operational ice charts and other sources.”

          • Marty says:

            Jim probably denies D-O oscillations too that show temps warming 8-10c in a few decades.

            Compare that to alleged 1.2c in 130 years.

            ugh UGH! Thinking is hard for alarmists.

      • Jim Hunt says:

        Tony – I take it that in your extensive search for sea ice “satellite data before 1979” you never stumbled across this page on the NSIDC web site?

        Daily and monthly averaged sea ice concentrations from the Nimbus-5 Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer (ESMR) are available for the Arctic and Antarctic from 12 December 1972 through 31 December 1976 at 25 km gridded resolution. Raw data were reprocessed to include ocean masks that reduce weather effects and coastal contamination, and to include a 15 percent ice threshold.

  2. Knut A. Lian says:

    Very interesting. Would it be possible to make a continuous graph from 1920-2017? Then it would be easier to compare the 1940-60 low with today’s low.

  3. Gary845 says:

    Goodness – the John Cook produced graph imagines that none of us ever saw this, as well:

    • AndyOz says:

      That’s shows 1968 lower than 1974 which we know was lower than 1979.
      I wonder what NOOA’s excuse is?

      The dog ate my historical data?

  4. Brad says:

    When exposing duplicity and fraud, it may be best to avoid using quotes from the yellow journalist Upton Sinclair.

  5. neal s says:

    Just read a depressingly untruthful article

    I am sending ryan an email directing him here. I don’t expect anything good to come of it … but you never know.

  6. Stewart Pid says:

    Griff must have his panties in such a knot that he had a coronary …. no comment so far.
    Although I see that Jim crawled out from under his rock.

  7. Griff says:

    I’m glad it was mentioned there are good records going back to the 1920s, because that allows me to mention that all records have been collated back to the 1850s and that at no point in the 20s, 30s or 40s was the sea ice as low as it is now…

    • Sunsettommy says:

      No Griff, your “records” ,back to the 1850’s are very LOW RESOLUTION proxy data!

      • Griff says:

        Detailed ice extent records plotted by Canadian, Soviet, Danish and Norwegian weather bureau and shipping, cold war sub plots from beneath the ice… all the available data has been collected. There is masses of it and its of good quality.

        And without it, you can’t make any claims on the ice extent being higher/lower in the past, can you?

        • Sunsettommy says:

          Griff, you SHOWN why your claim lacked credibility over at the WUWT blog. The 1850 to 1900 part is indeed low resolution.

          The “data” is indeed low resolution, because large ares of the ocean were never sampled,that ships intermittently samples the water,using non standard measurement methods.

          You have no statistical math skills at all kid.

    • Gator says:

      Ms Griff hates poor brown people, and thinks the Earth is only 167 years old.

      • Griff says:


        You stoop that low?

      • gator69 says:

        I’m not the denier or perpetrator of leftist genocide, so in other words, I am not the lowlife.

        Ms Griff, you could spend your time spreading the truth that Lomborg cited at TED, or can continue advocating for the misallocation of resources that is starving 21,000 people to death every day.

        You can deny the truth all you like, while millions starve.

        You can deny facts about ice all you like, while millions starve.

        But you cannot accuse others of stooping low when you are assisting in genocide.

        • Colorado Wellington says:

          It should be noted that Ms. Griff doesn’t seem to be a traditional racist.

          She doesn’t mind rich brown people in her Capitol city and their fashionable excesses. It’s the suffering poor brown people in faraway Districts she hates and starves to death. There’s just damn too many of them.

          She’s an archetypal Capitol citizen of the Hunger Games.

  8. Tom says:

    What is an “Standardized Anomaly?” Is that a derivative of homogenized data? And whether the answer to that be yes or no, what is the process of and rationalization for homogenizing data and/or standardizing anomalies? What argument does John Cook provide for doing so and why is his argument argument (in your assessment) a poor reason?

    Thanks Tony.

  9. Griff says:


    I must address you directly on this…

    The actual sea ice extent in 1979 and in any year since is absolutely established as a fact and cannot have been faked…

    The data can be checked against satellite photos and the individual weather/ice warning services of US, Canada, Russia and Norway. The Russian Northern Seaway records… multiple sources.

    Not to mention that more than one satellite and country has tracked the extent data.

    There can be no doubt that sea ice extent has declined dramatically since 1979 and now is at a record low level in the years of the satellite record.

    that’s absolutely a fact and no one has faked any of that extent information, have they?


    • tonyheller says:

      How can sea ice extent be at a record low in February? That would have to occur in September.

      A lot of MYI blew out of the Arctic during winters from 1988 to 2007. What does that have to do with CO2?

      • Griff says:

        A record low for the month of February.

        Is it not of concern that even winter ice is lower than ever before??

        • Griff says:

          And you didn’t answer me: is the extent record a matter of verifiable fact, yes or no?

          • AndyG55 says:

            “is the extent record a matter of verifiable fact, yes or no?’

            Most definitely an absolute LIE.

            Bio-data clearly indicates that the current level of Arctic sea is really quite high in comparison to Holocene average.

            Any more LIES you would like to try to spread?

            griff = level 1 CLIMATE CHANGE DENIER.

        • AndyG55 says:

          “Is it not of concern that even winter ice is lower than ever before??”

          1. It is NOT lower than ever before… . yet another monumental LIE from griff.

          2. Lower Arctic sea ice, if was ever to actually occur, would be nothing than BENEFICIAL for all people living up ther.

          Wildlife survived, and THRIVED during much lower sea ice levels in the first 3/4 of the Holocene.

          Or are you going to continue to DENY this well established FACT !!

    • AndyG55 says:

      “There can be no doubt that sea ice extent has declined dramatically since 1979”

      There is no doubt the late 1970’s was an extreme high for Arctic sea ice.

      The Icelandic sea ice clearly shows that., just as it shows a huge drop in sea ice in the 1930-1965 era, as shown by TH above.before

      Griff ALWAYS the denier of history.

      • Griff says:

        Relatively high, yes…

        But now it is much lower and keeping on down.

        It is lower than the 20s through 40s period.

        • AndyG55 says:

          BULLSHIT ,

          A simple calculation was shown earlier.

          Arctic history shows that 1920-1940 was LOWER

          You can see clearly that the 1920-1960 period was a period of lower sea ice.

          You are mentally disturbed, CLIMATE CHANGE DENYING LIAR, griff.

    • Robert Austin says:

      Do you deny the satellite records prior to 1979 as show in the FAR IPCC report?

  10. CheshireRed says:

    So NOAA specifically show ice records cherry picked from 1979 because ice extent was unusually high, but despite having previously published 70’s data they ignore the 1970’s when ice extent was lower, and then also ignore the 50’s and 40’s when they were even lower than the already low 1970’s. You just have to laugh otherwise you’d cry. Meanwhile the Guardian, UK MO, IPCC, NASA, NOAA and Uncle Tom Cobley and all claim this is legitimate ‘settled science’. Lol.

    It’s so wilful it can only be a deliberate intention to mislead, there can be no other explanation for such blatant ignoring of earlier data simply because it f*cks their theory. On the back of this misdirection hangs Green Blob jobs paying suitably vast salaries, research grants worth millions and government policies worth $billions. RICO indeed. You can’t say there’s not dark humour in this level of world class criminality, it’s brilliant. Al Capone will be spinning in his grave with envy.

    If there’s any justice in this world president Donald J Trump will rinse these cheats and liars out of their positions of influence and straight to the state pen’. For a very long stretch.

    • Griff says:

      But the ice extent has been steadily declining since 1979, hasn’t it?

      and is now at a record low since 1979, isn’t it?

      and that record low is lower than in the 20s thru 40s period, for which we have good records, is it not?

      so the ice is declining, yes?

  11. Bruce of Newcastle says:

    I suspect there may be an effect from diesel particulates too. There’s been a massive rise in diesel engine use in the last thirty years. All that albedo changing pm2.5 soot, which Tony has pointed out in several posts before.

    That is anthropogenic but isn’t CO2 related.

    • AndyG55 says:

      And with the increased use of wind turbines, the use of diesel generators will skyrocket.

      The AGW scammers ate so dumb.. basically everything they do has no effect or the opposite effect to what the wanted…

      …. except the decimation of economies…

      … and senior population reduction..

      • AndyG55 says:

        this keyboard is weird…. ate -> are.

      • Griff says:

        No it won’t -and the use of particulate producing coal power plants will fall. It has in the UK.

        • AndyG55 says:

          You are again displaying your ABJECT IGNORANCE.

          the UK has huge ranks of DEISEL generators for the many times that wind is useless

          A modern coal fired power station produces basically zero particulates.

          But when have FACTS ever been something you have been remotely interested in.!!!

          “It has in the UK.”

          and look at the energy poverty now ensuing…

          …as if you CARE. !!

          You really are at the very bottom of the human decency scale, aren’t you griff

  12. Svend Ferdinandsen says:

    The climateers have in an endless stream predicted the ice would disappear.
    So why have not even a single scientist ever said that it is better than we thaught?
    They thaught it would have disappeared and is still there, so obviously it must be better than thaught.

    • Andy DC says:

      The word “scientists” makes me laugh. More like paid propagandists.

    • Griff says:

      It is going… and quite quickly on a geological time scale.

      do you have any evidence it is NOT declining?

      • AndyG55 says:

        Plenty of evidence that it is NOWHERE NEAR the levels of the first 3/4 of the Holocene..

        …you know, the period before the LIA.

        You continue to be an avid DENIER of climate change history.

        You are right at the top of the list of CLIMATE CHANGE DENIERS…..

        … up there with Jimbo the clown.

        • Griff says:

          We aren’t back then.

          What concerns us is its current rate of decline towards a likely ice free summer arctic ocean…. with current extent lower than the previous ‘cycle’ in the 20s thru 40s.

          The reasons for the previous low ice in the Eemian were entirely related to the Earth’s orbit, which has since moved on to a different part of its (Milankovitch) cycle. The early Holocene is utterly irrelevant to current conditions.

          • Latitude says:

            Who is “us”?

          • Sunsettommy says:

            Ha ha ha,

            there it is folks, Griff doesn’t care that it was much lower for most of the Holocene. That Polar Bears and Eskimos lived through it.That the ecosystem didn’t crash. That super molecule has nothing to do with it since it stayed around the 260-280 level for most of the inter glacial period.

            He want to cry over a tiny time frame of a much higher than average ice pack of today,because he is a confirmed warmist bigot.

          • AndyG55 says:

            DENIAL of climate history.. the only way you can support you brain-washed belief in you fake AGW religion

            Cherry pick the extreme of 1979 as the starting point.. and DENY any other part of the AMO cycle.

            You do know what the AMO is, don’t you griff… or are you remaining forever WILFULLY IGNORANT???

          • AndyG55 says:

            “The early Holocene is utterly irrelevant to current conditions.”

            run and hide from the facts you don’t like, hey griff.

            They are highly relevant because they show the conditions before the plunge into the Little Ice Age.. the COLDEST period in the last 10,000 years, which the world has just managed to crawl out of.

            Arctic sea ice levels are STILL anomalously high compared to all but that COLDEST of periods, that’s because the world is only a small, but highly beneficial, bump in temperature above that bleak period.

            You need to get out of your heated inner city latte ghetto, go to Siberia, and see how you like the climate there.

            Get some rationality and perspective into your cotton-wool wrapped meaningless existence.

  13. Joe Lawrence says:

    I very much enjoyed reading this string ….Why does there seem to be very little mention of solar activity as it relates to climate change? And why is there very little mention of the effects of volcanic activity on climate change? I have read it has been estimated that the Mt. St Helens eruption emitted more C02 into the atmosphere than all man made activity to date up to that point. There were 66 major volcanic eruptions in the 1900’s with 6 the size of Mt. St Helens or larger

    • Griff says:

      Because solar activity is ‘low’ and has been for a decade and is not a prime driver of the current climate…

      Because human produced CO2 vastly exceeds volcanic emissions (and no, there are not a lot of undersea volcanoes producing CO2 we don’t know about)

      simply the sun and volcanoes, while climate drivers, are not major influences at this time.

      • AndyG55 says:

        “Because solar activity is ‘low’ and has been for a decade and is not a prime driver of the current climate…”

        LIAR…. and a moron.

        Do your really think with the world being 70% surface area H2O it responses immediately…. a lag of some 11-15 years has been identified by REAL SCIENCE….

        … ie , the sort you know absolutely NOTHING about

        • Griff says:

          and yet for the past decade we have been seeing rising global temps…

          • Sunsettommy says:

            They rise because the warmist bigots fiddles with the surface temperature data over and over.

            Meanwhile Satellite data shows a very different picture,but that would impinge on your warmist religion beliefs.

            You are willing to lie to yourself every day.

          • neal s says:

            And yet there are hardly any all-time high temp records being broken. Whenever there are claims of high temp records being broken, it is only over a much shorter timespan. I wonder why that is? Probably because it is an inconvenient truth that it is NOT actually hotter than it ever was.

            What you are seeing is claims of rising global temps based on ‘adjusted’ data. You are so gullible for believing the lies, especially when there is so much here pointing at the truth.

            I think it time for another Swift-like satire about ‘gullibles travels’ … the journey of a confirmed CAGW believer who refuses to believe he has been lied to over and over and over again.

          • AndyG55 says:

            LIES again.. LIES is all you seem to have. !!!

            DENIAL of facts is the only way you support your waste of a climate religion.

            Apart from the El Nino, there has been NO WARMING since the end of the previous El Nino in 2001.

      • AndyG55 says:

        “Because human produced CO2 vastly exceeds volcanic emissions (and no, there are not a lot of undersea volcanoes producing CO2 we don’t know about)”


        Yet a couple of years ago a whole island chain just appeared.

        Your base-level IGNORANCE is way past the stage of being even slightly humorous

        • Griff says:

          “According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the world’s volcanoes, both on land and undersea, generate about 200 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) annually, while our automotive and industrial activities cause some 24 billion tons of CO2 emissions every year worldwide. ”

          • Sunsettommy says:

            Nature emits about 96% of the total yearly CO2.which leaves the rest with Mankind.

            You are as usual wrong.

          • neal s says:

            A February 2013 estimate by a team led by Mike Burton, of the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology was just shy of 600 million tons of CO2 emitted by volcanic degassing.

            And there is now evidence that volcanoes thought to be inactive still make substantial CO2 contributions. As much as half of what active volcanoes contribute. This would skyrocket the number of degassing peaks to more than 500.

          • gator69 says:

            Termites alone produce more greenhouse gases than mankind…

            Now researchers report that termites, digesting vegetable matter on a global basis, produce more than twice as much carbon dioxide as all the world’s smokestacks.

            Between their methane and carbon dioxide production, some estimates put the number at ten times what humans produce. For every human, there is estimated to be over 1000 pounds of termites.

            Interesting trivia, but still not worth sacrificing 21,000 people daily.

      • Pethefin says:

        Poor Griff, you should start looking for help since it looks like you are about experience a true wake-up call:

        • Griff says:

          I think the subject – which you are trying to avoid -is the ice.

          The ice extent records are watertight aren’t they? you can’t dispute the record from 1979 on and you can’t dispute the decline it shows.

          • Latitude says:

            This is like saying you have the flu and your high temp is normal….

          • gator69 says:

            Ms Griff continues to cherry pick dates, while another 21,000 innocent humans starve to death, again today.

            The one fact we cannot dispute is that resources would be better spent saving human lives. But then Ms Griff apparently hates poor brown people.

          • Pethefin says:

            LOL, the one who brought CO2 to the table was you Griff. You are truly dim troll.

          • AndyG55 says:

            Yet you totally ignore climate history and Arctic sea ice history before the LIA. and around 1920-1950

            Griff.. CLIMATE CHANGE DENIER, #2

        • Gail Combs says:

          Griffy is talking about WEATHER 2017 minus 1979 is ONLY 38 years. Hardly a full climate cycle which would be a minimum of 14-1500 years. (one D-O/Bond cycle)

          So as Andy keeps saying Griffy is a Climate Denier because she doesn’t even understand the difference between weather aka signal noise and climate.

          Griffy, these are your REAL climate changes — Dansgaard-Oeschger events — and they are 8 to 16C changes within a decade or two. So quit hyperventilating over a couple hundreths of a degree change.

  14. Dan Zielinski says:

    Wow. Tony – you should sell tickets to this thread! Fabulously interesting.

  15. litesong says:

    February 1, 2017 Arctic sea ice VOLUME was ~ 2500 cubic kilometers less than to date February 1, 2016. As a TREND, February 1, 2017 Arctic sea ice VOLUME is 10,600 cubic kilometers LESS than the average February 1, year sea ice VOLUME of the 1980’s. The energy to melt such a cube of ice (almost 22 kilometers by 22 kilometers by 65000 feet high) is about 33 times the annual energy used by the United States of America. Lesser ice losses are occurring in the Antarctic (but increasing).
    For 385 STRAIGHT months, global Earth temperatures have been above the 20th century average. This has occurred DESPITE the solar TSI energy output being languid for decades, & below normal for 10 years (including a 3+ year period of low solar TSI energy setting a 100 year low). When the sun returns to normal (& it will because it has INCREASED very slowly for 5 billion years), AGW effects will increase strongly. In late 2016, the Present High Arctic Berserker, or PHAB, or FAB ( over- temperatures on nearly 4 million square kilometers of the High Arctic), jumped to 20degC over-temperature. MIND YOU!! This is NOT a local city temperature over say a 20 kilometer by 20 kilometer square. It is over a square almost 2000 kilometers by 2000 kilometers. Within the last 2 years in the MIDDLE OF WINTER, our Earth’s North Pole heated above the freezing point of water for short times, on three occasions.

    • Gail Combs says:

      You are talking about WEATHER not climate.

      The Arctic was ICE FREE during the summers during the earlier part of the Holocene.

      STUDY #1
      Ice free Arctic Ocean, an Early Holocene analogue

      Extensive systems of wave generated beach ridges along the North Greenland coasts show that these areas once saw seasonally open water. In addition to beach ridges, large amounts of striated boulders in and on the marine sediments from the same period also indicate that the ocean was open enough for ice bergs to drift along the shore and drop their loads. Presently the North Greenland coastline is permanently beleaguered by pack ice, and ice bergs are very rare and locked up in the sea ice. Predictions of the rapidly decreasing sea ice in the Arctic Ocean generally point to this area as the last to become ice free in summer. We therefore suggest that the occurrence of wave generated shores and abundant ice berg dropped boulders indicate that the Arctic Ocean was nearly free of sea ice in the summer at the time when they were formed. The beach ridges occur as isostatically raised “staircases”, and C14-dated curves for relative sea level change show that they were formed in the Early Holocene. A large set of samples of molluscs from beach ridges and marine sediments were collected in the summer of 2007, and are presently being dated to give a precise dating of the ice free interval. Preliminary results indicate that it fell within the interval from c. 8.5 to c. 6 ka – being progressively shorter from south to north. We therefore conclude that for a period in the Early Holocene, probably for a millenium or more, the Arctic Ocean was free of sea ice at least for shorter periods in the summer….

      STUDY #2
      Temperature and precipitation history of the Arctic

      …. Solar energy reached a summer maximum (9% higher than at present) ~11 ka ago and has been decreasing since then, primarily in response to the precession of the equinoxes. The extra energy elevated early Holocene summer temperatures throughout the Arctic 1-3°C above 20th century averages, enough to completely melt many small glaciers throughout the Arctic, although the Greenland Ice Sheet was only slightly smaller than at present. Early Holocene summer sea ice limits were substantially smaller than their 20th century average, and the flow of Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean was substantially greater. As summer solar energy decreased in the second half of the Holocene, glaciers re-established or advanced, sea ice expanded

      STUDY #3
      A new approach for reconstructing glacier variability based on lake sediments recording input from more than one glacier January 2012

      …. A multi-proxy numerical analysis demonstrates that it is possible to distinguish a glacier component in the ~ 8000-yr-long record, based on distinct changes in grain size, geochemistry, and magnetic composition…. This signal is …independently tested through a mineral magnetic provenance analysis of catchment samples. Minimum glacier input is indicated between 6700–5700 cal yr BP, probably reflecting a situation when most glaciers in the catchment had melted away, whereas the highest glacier activity [growth] is observed around 600 and 200 cal yr BP. During the local Neoglacial interval (~ 4200 cal yr BP until present), five individual periods of significantly reduced glacier extent are identified at ~ 3400, 3000–2700, 2100–2000, 1700–1500, and ~ 900 cal yr BP….

      The highest glacier growth started 600 years ago prior to that most glaciers had melted away.

      STUDY #4
      A 10,000-Year Record of Arctic Ocean Sea-Ice Variability


      We present a sea-ice record from northern Greenland covering the past 10,000 years. Multiyear sea ice reached a minimum between ~8,500 and 6,000 years ago, when the limit of year-round sea ice at the coast of Greenland was located ~1000 kilometers to the north of its present position. The subsequent increase in multiyear sea ice culminated during the past 2,500 years and is linked to an increase in ice export from the western Arctic and higher variability of ice-drift routes. When the ice was at its minimum in northern Greenland, it greatly increased at Ellesmere Island to the west. The lack of uniformity in past sea-ice changes, which is probably related to large-scale atmospheric anomalies such as the Arctic Oscillation, is not well reproduced in models. This needs to be further explored, as it is likely to have an impact on predictions of future sea-ice distribution.

      10,000 years of Greenland Temperature from Ice Core

    • Gail Combs says:

      In tectonically inert places (neither land rising nor subsiding) such as the Gulf of Maine the level recorded by the Portland Maine Tide Gauge in 2014 is IDENTICAL (to the millimeter!) to that measured in 1947.

      Notice the area where Roman sea ports are inland is tectonically stable according to NASA.
      List of Roman Sea Ports found inland
      (Has great pictures and maps.)

      For the areas occupied by the Romans it was pretty close to zero or actually sinking! “..the pivot point is rather abrupt; Scotland is still rising due to the rebound effect which is correspondingly sinking England 2 millimetres into the North Sea each year.”

      A NASA model of current surface elevation change due to post-glacial rebound and the reloading of sea basins with water. Canada, Northern Europe, and Antarctica are all currently rebounding at a rate of a few millimetres per year. More water in the oceans as a result of ice sheet melting is slowly depressing sea basins. Satellites are used to observe differences over time.


      STUDY #1
      Mid to late Holocene sea-level reconstruction of Southeast Vietnam using beachrock and beach-ridge deposits

      ….backshore deposits along the tectonically stable south-eastern Vietnamese coast document Holocene sea level changes…..reconstructed for the last 8000 years….The rates of sea-level rise decreased sharply after the rapid early Holocene rise and stabilized at a rate of 4.5 mm/year between 8.0 and 6.9 ka. Southeast Vietnam beachrocks reveal that the mid-Holocene sea-level highstand slightly above + 1.4 m was reached between 6.7 and 5.0 ka, with a peak value close to + 1.5 m around 6.0 ka….

      Translation the sea level was up to 1.5 meters higher than today in a tectonically stable area ~5000 years ago to 2000 years ago. Tectonically stable area refers to areas devoid of deformation such as all processes which modify the external form of the crust. For example unidirectional vertical movements, plate tectonics and also the rise and fall of the solid earth surface, especially in coastal areas, caused by external factors such as climate change (gio-isotasy, hydro-isotasy)

      STUDY #2
      Sea-level highstand recorded in Holocene shoreline deposits on Oahu, Hawaii

      Unconsolidated carbonate sands and cobbles on Kapapa Island, windward Oahu, are 1.4-2.8 (+ or – 0.25) m above present mean sea level (msl)…we interpret the deposit to be a fossil beach or shoreline representing a highstand of relative sea level during middle to late Holocene time. Calibrated radiocarbon dates of coral and mollusc samples, and a consideration of the effect of wave energy setup, indicate that paleo-msl was at least 1.6 (+ or – 0.45) m above present msl prior to 3889-3665 cal. yr B.P, possibly as early as 5532-5294 cal. yr B.P., and lasted until at least 2239-1940 cal. yr B.P

      This study shows a sea level highstand ~1.6 meter above the present level from ~5500 years ago to 2000 years ago.

      STUDY #3
      Late Quaternary highstand deposits of the southern Arabian Gulf: a record of sea-level and climate change

      …..It has therefore been necessary to infer the ages of these sediments by a comparison of their stratigraphy and elevation with deposits known from other parts of the world. We regard this approach as valid because the southern Gulf coastline lacks evidence for significant widespread neotectonic uplift,…….
      …..Widespread evidence exists for a Holocene sea level higher than at present in the southern Arabian Gulf, indicating that it peaked at 1–2 m above present level, c. 5.5 ka bp……. sp(DOT)

      This study shows a sea level highstand ~1 to 2 meters above the present level about ~5500 years ago.

      STUDY #4
      The Quaternary Geological History of the Santa Catarina Southeastern Region (Brazil)

      In the body of the text is this:

      Partially abutted against the Pleistocene barrier island/lagoonal system III, there is the Holocene depositional system. This unit is attributable to the Santos Transgression of Suguio & Martin (1978), along the State of São Paulo coastline, or to the Last Transgression of Bittencourt et al. (1979) along the State of Bahia coastline, being similar to the barrier island/lagoonal system IV of Villwock et al. (1986), along the State of Rio Grande do Sul coastline.

      This system is related to the post-glacial transgressive episode whose culmination stage was attained about 5.1 ky BP, when a barrier island alignment was formed parallel to the shoreline, while drainage net was drowned. The subsequent regressive episode promoted the barrier island progradation following the lagoonal basin silting.

      The paleoshorelines limited by ancient cliffs carved within Pleistocene terraces, presently representing the inner limit of the Holocene terrace, shows that this sea-level reached about 4m above the present one. Several terraces situated in different altitudes, and truncation of past morphological features nowadays observed on Holocene deposits, as well as along present lagoonal margins suggest that small scale sea-level oscillations occurred during the last 5 ky….

      This study shows a sea level highstand ~ 4 meters above the present level about ~5000 years ago. With sea level oscillating since then. Not only has the sea levels have dropped since the Holocene Optimum the evidence shows that “warmer paleotemperatures were favourable for great proliferation of mollusks in the area”
      Santa Catarina Brazil is at latitude 27.2500°S and is tectonically stable.

      STUDY #5
      Holocene sea-level change and ice-sheet history in the Vestfold Hills, East Antarctica

      A new Holocene sea-level record from the Vestfold Hills, Antarctica, has been obtained by dating the lacustrine–marine and marine–lacustrine transitions that occur in sediment cores from lakes which were formerly connected to the sea. From an elevation of ∼7.5 m 8000 yr ago, relative sea-level rose to a maximum ∼9 m above present sea-level 6200 yr ago. Since then, sea-level has fallen monotonically until the present….

      The above is a RELATIVE sea level. The area is not tectonically stable because the area has isostatic uplift in response to deglaciation from the Wisconsin Ice Age. The same applies to the following study.

      STUDY #6
      A new Holocene relative sea level curve for the South Shetland Islands, Antarctica

      The curve shows a mid-Holocene RSL highstand on Fildes Peninsula at 15.5 m above mean sea level between 8000 and 7000 cal a BP. Subsequently RSL gradually fell as a consequence of isostatic uplift in response to regional deglaciation….

    • AndyG55 says:

      Dear lite-headed.

      It good that you have illustrated you have zero idea about the WEATHER event that have caused a very minor slowness in sea ice formation

      Now haw about you also look at the flip side of this WEATHER event, the massive cold anomalies over Northern Russia all year, and the freezing cold front that have rattled through Canada , Alaska and northern USA.

      Or do you care more about a trivial reduction in Arctic sea ice more than the people who have actually DIED because of those cold anomalies?

      Furthermore, it seems that you are totally ignoring the FACT that 1950 sea ice was about on par with now, and for the first 3/4 of the Holocene, sea ice was often ZERO in summer.

      Or are you also a CLIMATE CHANGE DENIER, like Jimbo and griff.

    • Gail Combs says:

      The REAL climate debate is about when to expect the next glacial inception.

      —-You really didn’t expect the Elite to clue in the Great Unwashed now did you? Instead you see them, including the US Universities, buying up farmland in non-glaciated areas like Africa, South America and Australia all the while yammering about a Population Bomb and de-industrializing the USA….
      The switch from full bore industrial manufacturing to killing off Western Civilization came in the early 1970s right around the time Shackleton provided evidence that Milancovitch was correct. Coincidence?? —-

      The Berger and Loutre’s 2002 modeling is what NASA/NOAA uses to say the current Ice Age has ended and the earth will not go back into glaciation.

      Lisiecki and Raymo, (2005) essentially quashed the Berger and Loutre’s 2002 model using REAL data and no one has come forward with anything supporting an extended Holocene since then.

      A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic D18O records
      Lisiecki & Raymo

      Recent research has focused on MIS 11 as a possible analog for the present interglacial [e.g., Loutre and Berger, 2003; EPICA Community Members, 2004] because both occur during times of low eccentricity. The LR04 age model establishes that MIS 11 spans two precession cycles, with d18O values below 3.6% for 20 kyr, from 398 – 418 ka. In comparison, stages 9 and 5 remained below 3.6% for 13 and 12 kyr, respectively, and the Holocene interglacial has lasted 11 kyr so far. In the LR04 age model, the average LSR of 29 sites is the same from 398– 418 ka as from 250–650 ka; consequently, stage 11 is unlikely to be artificially stretched. However, the 21 June insolation minimum at 65°N during MIS 11 is only 489 W/m2, much less pronounced than the present minimum of 474 W/m2. In addition, current insolation values are not predicted to return to the high values of late MIS 11 for another 65 kyr. We propose that this effectively precludes a ‘‘double precession cycle’’ interglacial [e.g., Raymo, 1997] in the Holocene without human influence.

      Or there is this paper a couple years later.
      “Because the intensities of the 397kaBP and present insolation minima are very similar, we conclude that under natural boundary conditions the present insolation minimum holds the potential to terminate the Holocene interglacial.”

      What we do know is that the past 6 interglacials, dating back to the Mid Pleistocene Transition, have lasted roughly half of a precessional cycle, or 11,500 years. The present age of the Holocene is 11,720 years or about two hundred years past the due date. Therefore the Little Ice Age should have been glacial inception.

      So what happened?

      The Grand Solar Maximum, highest in 3,000 years that has just ended. See: A History of Solar Activity over Millennia Usoskin et al. This is a very good paper using multiple methods to validate their results.

      Ice cores from the Freemont Glacier show it went from Little Ice Age cold to Modern Warming warm in the ten years between 1845 and 1855. Naturally.

      An ice core removed from the Upper Fremont Glacier in Wyoming provides evidence for abrupt climate change during the mid-1800s….

      At this depth, the age-depth profile predicts an age of 1845 A.D. Results indicate the termination of the LIA was abrupt with a major climatic shift to warmer temperatures around 1845 A.D. and continuing to present day. Prediction limits (error bars) calculated for the profile ages are ±10 years (90% confidence level). Thus a conservative estimate for the time taken to complete the LIA climatic shift to present-day climate is about 10 years, suggesting the LIA termination in alpine regions of central North America may have occurred on a relatively short (decadal) timescale.

      If you look at the Sunspot graphs and apply Dr Evan’s ~11 year Notch-Delay Solar Theory the match is spot on.

      PLEASE NOTE: there is a DELAY between sunspot changes and Earth climate of more than a decade!

    • Gail Combs says:

      Next question is how long is the Transition?

      “This record also reveals that the transitions at the beginning and end of the interglacial spanned only ~100 and 150 years, respectively.” (wwwDOT)

      Actually Alley showed the flip from Wisconsin Ice Age to Holocene happened in THREE YEARS!

      In his book, The Two-Mile Time Machine: Ice Cores, Abrupt Climate Change, and Our Future Richard Alley, one of the world’s leading climate researchers, tells the fascinating history of global climate changes as revealed by reading the annual rings of ice from cores drilled in Greenland. In the 1990s he and his colleagues made headlines with the discovery that the last ice age came to an abrupt end over a period of only three years….

      Richard B. Alley was chair of the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences that produced:
      Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises ( 2002 )

      From the opening paragraph in the executive summary:

      Recent scientific evidence shows that major and widespread climate changes have occurred with startling speed. For example, roughly half the north Atlantic warming since the last ice age was achieved in only a decade, and it was accompanied by significant climatic changes across most of the globe. Similar events, including local warmings as large as 16°C, occurred repeatedly during the slide into and climb out of the last ice age.

      The Earth’s climate over the last century plus has actually been DARN STABLE!

      The last interglacial ended with a warm spike called LEAP

      “The onset of the LEAP occurred within less than two decades, demonstrating the existence of a sharp threshold, which must be near 416 Wm2…”

      It gets worse. Even if the Holocene does not end in glaciation but goes long like MIS11 the earth’s climate enters a very unstable area because the climate currently is bi-stable.

      Rapid sea-level changes at the close of the last interglacial (substage 5e) recorded in Bahamian island geology


      Rapid and abrupt relative sea-level changes within the last interglacial (substage 5e) are recorded in the island geology of the tectonically stable Bahamas. From 132 to 118 ka, reef growth reached a maximum elevation near +2 m, as indicated by fossil reef elevation across the platform, whereas bioeroded notches are incised in coastal cliffs as high as +6 m. The end of the interval is characterized by voluminous eolianites exhibiting palm tree and frond impressions. It is inferred that sea level for most of the interval remained near +2 m, restraining reef growth, and that the notch at +6 m represents a rapid and brief excursion just before the close of the substage. The subsequent fall must have been rapid in order to leave the notch profile intact and mobilize windward lagoon ooids into dunes before cementation could anchor them. In order to explain the rapid rise to +6 m, glacial surging is invoked. The subsequent fall, also rapid, may be a consequence of the surge flooding high latitudes and providing enough moisture to initiate reglaciation and drawdown.

      As the Authors, Neuman and Hearty, of the above paper said:
      <"Rapid changes in sea level and associated destabilization of climate at the turbulent close of the last interglacial maximum appear to be recorded directly in the geomorphology, stratigraphy, and sedimentary structures of carbonate platform islands in the Bahamas. Considered together, the observations presented here suggest a rapid rise, short crest, and rapid fall of sea level at the close of 5e.

      The lesson from the last interglacial “greenhouse” in the Bahamas is that the closing of that interval brought sea-level changes that were rapid and extreme. This has prompted the remark that between the greenhouse and the icehouse lies a climatic “madhouse”!

      Here is a chart of the new NEEM temperature data (back to 128,500 years ago) versus the previous Greenland extended reconstruction temps (back to 123,000 years ago) and Antarctica (which goes all the way back to 800,000 years ago)
      The left is the oldest (Eemian) and the right is the youngest (Holocene) note the temperature spike in the Eemian in the thick green line just before the fall into the Wisconsin Ice age as well as all the spikes (Temperature spikes of 10degrees or more withing decades!) during the Wisconsin Ice Age.

    • Gail Combs says:

      AND if you want to get into ‘solar TSI energy’….

      A newer paper from the fall of 2012 Can we predict the duration of an interglacial? agrees with the Lisiecki & Raymo paper and gives the calculated solar insolation values @ 65N on June 22 for several glacial inceptions:

      Current value – insolation = 479W m−2 (from that paper)

      MIS 7e – insolation = 463 W m−2,
      MIS 11c – insolation = 466 W m−2,
      MIS 13a – insolation = 500 W m−2,
      MIS 15a – insolation = 480 W m−2,
      MIS 17 – insolation = 477 W m−2

      (Changes near the north polar area, about 65 degrees North, are considered important due to the great amount of land. Land masses respond to temperature change more quickly than oceans.)

      Looking at it the other way round using NOAA’s numbers (Berger) @ 60N not 65N

      Holocene peak insolation: 523 Wm-2
      ……………………………………………..decreased = 47 Wm-2
      NOW (modern Warm Period) 476 Wm-2
      …………………………………………….. decreased = 12 Wm-2
      Depth of the last ice age – around 464 Wm−2

      11,000 years ago…………… 523.16 Wm-2 peak insolation
      Wisconsin Ice age- Holocene transition
      12,000 years ago…………… 522.50 Wm-2

      So once the Earth flips into the Ice Box mode there is no going back. The earth barely made it out of the Wisconsin Ice Age with the peak insolation ~ 523 Wm-2 and we are now at 476 Wm-2, only 12 Wm-2 above the depths of the Wisconsin Ice Age. So if circumstances (sleepy sun, massive volcanic activity, Dansgaard-Oeschger event….) flip the earth into glacial termination nothing will switch it back. The solar energy is just not there.

      The ClimAstrologists are saying that this solar insolation change over the Holocene is going to be trumped by CO2 forcing yet the entire CO2 forcing is 32 to 44 W m–2 [cf., Reid, 1997] and all but 5 to 6 W m–2 of that forcing occurs in the first 200 ppm CO2 (modtran) A CO2 concentration where plants barely survive.

      So why ever would anyone in their right mind want to DECREASE CO2, the only possible prevention of glacial inception, during the tail end of the Holocene especially when research shows Carbon starvation in glacial trees recovered from the La Brea tar pits, southern California??? Remember, thanks to Henry’s law colder ocean water will suck down a lot of the CO2 now in the atmosphere.


      Oh, and the current polar vortex sucking warm air into the Arctic and cold air over Siberia and Canada that worries you so? That is signs of COOLING not warming. 😁

      Shocking Polar Vortex From 20,000 Years Ago

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