One Country Which Actually Is Warming

Germany is a little larger than Missouri and Arkansas combined, and has a fairly coherent long term temperature record at 13 stations.

There has been a warming trend in Germany since 1980.

This can’t be explained by UHI,  HOHENPEISSENBERG is a rural station at 3,100 feet elevation, and MUENCHEN is an urban station at 1,700 feet elevation.

Munich is warmer, but the two stations track each other very closely.

 

A typical July afternoon in overheated southern Germany is 71 degrees.

These two stations have warmed considerably since 1980, and I don’t see any reason to think the trend isn’t real.

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62 Responses to One Country Which Actually Is Warming

  1. Theyouk says:

    Very interesting indeed. Could there be more frequent incidence of a chinook-type downslope, warm wind (descending northward from the Alps) over the last X-years? If so, what could drive that? I have zero local familiarity with their meteorological ‘norms’, so pardon me if this is a completely ignorant question.

  2. Anon says:

    Tony,

    Thanks for reporting that. But, sorry to be of a suspicious mind here, but the next thing I would do is try to see is if that trend holds by looking at nearby countries that are not under German government control or influence. This is to be sure you are not accidentally looking at another Mohonk.

    Sorry to be so cynical here, but I have just seen too much….

  3. Anon says:

    Background on the Mohonk saga. FYI:

    Mohonk Weather History Offers Insight Into Global Warming

    https://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/16/science/earth/16moho.html

    How not to measure temperature, part 84: “Pristine” Mohonk Lake USHCN station revisited

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/22/how-not-to-measure-temperature-part-84-pristine-mohonk-lake-ushcn-station-revisited/

  4. Gator says:

    Hohenpeissenberg is not an ideal siting, and the immediate area appears to have had a fair amount of infrastructure added in recent years.

    https://www.google.com/maps/place/Hohenpei%C3%9Fenberg,+Germany/@47.8010635,11.0110121,191m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x479c4be48d79f08f:0x41e48add78bada0!8m2!3d47.7945375!4d11.0063951

    But it is no surprise to find warming since 1980.

  5. SLS2 says:

    There was a German meteorologist named Klaus Hager who claimed Germany’s temperature rise from the 1980s to 2000 was entirely due to transitioning from mercury to digital thermometers. How does that fit in if it even does?

    • tonyheller says:

      I don’t see anything which looks like a step change.

    • --B-- says:

      It would depend on how the thermometers work. I would imagine that the digital thermometers use a thermocouple. How that thermocouple is mounted, how the voltage is measured, how that voltage is calibrated to a temperature, and so on can introduce a systematic difference. Now if it’s done properly any difference should be trivial to none of course.

  6. Lasse says:

    More sun hours since 1980 as in Sweden?
    Trend is obvious with 10-15% more sun hours during 30 years.
    Solar brightening due to cleaner air!

    • There is that. Nationalsocialists joined the East German communist party in droves after May, 1945, and all those dictatorships’ pollution was horrendous to everyone but intellectuals of the looter persuasion. The “seeing” has to have improved since the second collapse of socialism.

      • Colorado Wellington says:

        True. All watermelons today should see what terrible environmental destruction their Progressive founding fathers caused over decades in the socialist paradise.

        But then again, few would care. Their brains have been programmed to discount such unpleasant things by saying that this time round they’ll get it right. And those I know personally like their comfort and don’t like to go to icky places. The revolution is much more fun when they can stop at a cafe after a rally and then go home to a functioning neighborhood with running water, HVAC, full fridge and internet.

    • Robertv says:

      The air over Germany in the sixties and seventies was like the air in china’s cities today.
      Most of it came from using brown coal for cheap energy to produce the german industrial boom. Also remember that there was no germany left after the second world war.

  7. AndyDC says:

    1980 was near the bottom of a general 40 year world wide cooling period, starting around 1940.

  8. Anthony Bremner says:

    It is possible that Lasse has a point about cleaner air. I was thinking the same thing that Germany was a heavily industrialized nation back in the 1980’s with some very dirty air that has been cleaned up. Perhaps it is an area that does not naturally clear itself with wind so any cleaning up makes a big difference regarding solar brightening like Beijing is now with their sulfur dioxide cleanup efforts . Worldwide the sulfur dioxide cleanup has to amount to several large volcanoes and one volcano can cool the world as shown in 1992 with Pinatubo. The greens have blamed the 1940 to 1975 cooling period on sulfur dioxide pollution but do not seem to mention it as a large cause of warming with it’s removal alongside the ocean warming cycles of course. In recent years there has been a large drop in So2 with shipping now included in the cleanup which was a large source of So2. It is ironic that the greens are doing their best to warm the planet. Instead of fracking and using natural gas to replace coal which creates no Co2 in the conversion they are creating large amounts of Co2 building windmills and solar panels that takes 30 yrs to offset. Also “green” nations are building coal plants to replace nuclear that is Co2 free. Go figure.

    • Ask an astronomer. Jos Tomkins of the U. of Texas at Austin was the first to comment on water vapor being a more important greenhouse gas than CO2 (in The Atlantic magazine). But almost none of his colleagues were aware of the fact back in the 80s-90s. Maybe their recent records could shed more light on the issue.

      • --B-- says:

        The CO2 climate crowd intentionally dismisses water vapor unless viewed as a function CO2 concentration.

        They also don’t seem to know that burning hydrocarbons produces H2O.

    • arn says:

      Maybe it would not be wrong to take a look at 10/11/01
      The days after the terror attacks it was forbidden for planes to fly=less airpollition,clearer skies,more lux.
      Would be interressting to see wether there was some kind of significant impact.

      (though i’m more from the primitive side,therefore i think this could be just a regional climate shift(that resultee in a kind of hot spot)

    • Johansen says:

      Anthony… “coal which creates no CO2 in the conversion”… could you clarify that, I’m not following

  9. Brodirt says:

    A really big event occurred on November 9, 1989.

  10. Steven Fraser says:

    What I enjoyed seeing was the near-flat period from 1920 to 1980, but with wide variation.

  11. ducdorleans says:

    Tony, what is the source of your data ?

  12. Josh says:

    Russia especially Siberia and China not warming would make the leftist explode.

  13. Mr GrimNasty says:

    It would be interesting to see an analysis of all the data from just here, if it was available:

    http://notrickszone.com/2018/01/19/rare-weather-station-unchanged-over-138-years-data-show-no-co2-impact-on-temperature/

  14. Dee says:

    A rather benign temperature record

    http://www.irisheconomy.ie/wp-content/uploads/Dublin%2009.jpg

    Everyone is agog about horrendous climate change, but whenever you ask them for evidence of it they can’t show any.

  15. jackson says:

    It is nice to know there are places where the earth is warming.

  16. Heinrich says:

    https://www.dwd.de/DE/forschung/atmosphaerenbeob/zusammensetzung_atmosphaere/hohenpeissenberg/bild/lange_tempreihe.jpg

    actually Hohenpeißenberg is one of the oldest continually active stations that never changed, as it was run by a monastery.

  17. Heinrich says:

    or for berlin since 1700.

    http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/klimod/MitarbeiterInnen/ChristopherKadow/Pictures/02_IAG_GlobalerWandel_Abschlusspublikation2011_Kapitel_Umweltwandel_Cubasch_u_Kadow.pdf

    there was a big stepchange in 1988 for most of central Europe, I guess together with the AMO.

  18. Heinrich says:

    The German Met Service (DWD) used to show this picture:

  19. Interesting article. I previously suggested that reducing pollution levels has led to warming as smog causing, sunlight reflecting pollutants are removed.

    So it is interesting that when I look at pollution Germany I find: “As early as 1977, green groups participated in elections to district parliaments. In the European elections of 1979, several such groups put up candidates with a “green label”, attracting almost one million votes.[7] During the rise of the green party, environmental issues triggered major and partly violent conflicts. Since the late 1980s, a more cooperative policy style developed between the various actor groups and institutions. The high integrative capacity of the German political system and the willingness of the “organized” green movement to become more cooperative are important features explaining the mostly cooperative climate policy that followed in the 1980s.”

    This seems to fit the timescale.

  20. frederik wisse says:

    Mike Haselers explanation is really not far besides the truth .Germany is still a largely corporate society aimed at incorporating the latest trends in political fashions .During the 80s these were the greens ,although their background already originates from the third reich , and nowadays it is islam . Without valueing these streams of thinking you may conclude that both movements do not have a high esteem for a truthful description of the facts : To get their message across is of paramount importance and the facts are another matter . In this light a slight manipulation of the facts by preprogrammed civil servants is not to be excluded . Here in Holland the Dutch meteorological institute KNMI was caught redhanded last year manipulating the to cold temperatures disproving the CAGW theory . It so happens that fiction is stronger than reality .

    • Josh says:

      MajorityGermans will not accept their children marrying a Muslim so good job to the German propoganda machine!

      • Robertv says:

        If muslim families have 4 or 5 children and not muslim families just 1/2 a child than the future will be muslim. The question is not if but when they will become the majority .

  21. Johansen says:

    For you chemists out there…. A German group is researching burning pure SULFUR in a new green-energy schema. I thought this was interesting and sort of ironic…
    You combust sulfur to create steam and run a steam turbine/generator unit as usual. This produces SO2 which is wet-scrubbed, resulting in weak H2SO4.
    The H2SO4 is concentrated using a solar-thermal system (I assume parabolic mirrors). The sulfur is reduced back to elemental form.
    The process is repeated.
    Anyone heard of it?

  22. pseudo-intellectual says:

    “A typical July afternoon in overheated southern Germany is 71 degrees.”

    It cracks me up when warmists refer to “hottest year” ever… and the average temperature was in the upper 50s.

  23. JCalvertN(UK) says:

    Could it be down to cleaner/clearer air?

  24. George says:

    Hi Tony,
    RAW HOHENPEISSENBERG Station Data From Berkeley Earth does not Seem To Have The “Strong Warming” Exhibited In The Real Climate Science Chart Shown.
    Maybe The Real Climate Science Chart Has Been “Homogenised” To Match Nearby Urban Locations?
    Comments From Tony Heller Would Be Appreciated …

  25. George says:

    Hi Tony,
    Just resending the previous chart which I omitted to crop ……..

    RAW HOHENPEISSENBERG Station Data From Berkeley Earth does not Seem To Have The “Strong Warming” Exhibited In The Real Climate Science Chart Shown.
    Maybe The Real Climate Science Chart Has Been “Homogenised” To Match Nearby Urban Locations?
    Comments From Tony Heller Would Be Appreciated …

  26. George says:

    Hi Tony,

    Can’t find a similar station for Munich, which you say closely tracks HOHENPEISSENBERG…

    Here is the link for the Berkeley Earth station list.
    http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/station-list/?phrase=munich

    Which is the one featured in your article?

  27. George says:

    Hi Tony,

    I think I’ve found it!
    You have to use the keyword “Muenchen” not “Munich” in the serach.

    It covers back to 1880 and shows much more warming than RURAL Hohenpeissenberg.

    Looks like RURAL Hohenpeissenberg has been “homogenised” to match URBAN MUENCHEN-STADT!

    Here’s the link http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/stations/155053

  28. JCalvertN(UK) says:

    RE “Looks like RURAL Hohenpeissenberg has been “homogenised” to match URBAN MUENCHEN-STADT!”

    All too likely.

  29. richard says:

    So Germany’s temps are increasing as they transition to wind power and solar.

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