Ten Years Of Pulling Back The Curtain On Junk Science

Ten years ago this week, I wrote an article in The Register titled “Arctic ice refuses to melt as ordered.

Arctic ice refuses to melt as ordered • The Register

All of the world’s leading experts were predicting the North Pole or the entire Arctic would be ice-free between 2008 and 2018.

Serreze and Borenstein in 2008, ice-free North Pole.

28 Jun 2008, Page 8 – Southern Illinoisan

Hansen and Borenstein in 2008, ice-free Arctic.

The Argus-Press – Google News Archive Search

National Geographic has recently deleted this gem.

North Pole May Be Ice-Free for First Time This Summer

Ice-free Arctic in 2008.

Expert: Arctic polar cap may disappear this summer_English_Xinhua

Mark Serreze said the Arctic is screaming.

Star-News – Google News Archive Search

Ten years later, Serreze, Borenstein, Flannery and the New York Times are still pimping the exact same BS, and wondering why nobody is listening to them.

Will we see an ice-free North Pole in 2018?

On the phone with Serreze, the veteran journalist Seth Borenstein lamented, “How many times can a journalist report on what is happening in the Arctic before it becomes so repetitive that people lose interest?”

The Big Melt | by Tim Flannery | The New York Review of Books

The area of the Arctic covered with thick sea ice has expanded vastly since I wrote my article ten years ago, and sea ice volume is fourth highest for the date since 2003.

2008        2018

Spreadsheet    Data

I was correct ten years ago, and all the experts were wrong. So Google and YouTube accuse me of spreading misinformation, while they promote the people who spread the same nonsense year after year after year.

But that is what fake news is all about.

Ages-Old Icecap at North Pole Is Now Liquid, Scientists Find – The New York Times

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46 Responses to Ten Years Of Pulling Back The Curtain On Junk Science

  1. gregole says:

    Looking good Tony!

    Ice-Free Arctic in 2018? Not a chance. There’s just too much ice.

    Keep up the good fight; I’m with you!

  2. Andy says:

    Damn Tony, you look better than me in those days and I have more polar white hairs on my head than you now. We are both slim and sexy though still ….

    The good old register to boot :)

    DMI is still a disgrace though, considering they struggle with 2D extent over the last few years you do have to wonder how they manage to get 3D volume even remotely right. Their map shows ice where the good old briny sea is splashing around still.

    Best to follow Jaxa.


  3. RAH says:

    I’ve been with you a good bit of that time. I remember that Gator, CW, and Gail were here before I found your old site a couple of years before you moved here. Anyway, I’m still here and don’t intend on leaving. I raise my jack & coke to you Tony and wish you many more healthy and happy years.

  4. pinroot says:

    Seth Borenstein lamented, “How many times can a journalist report on what is happening in the Arctic before it becomes so repetitive that people lose interest?”

    I think a better question is “how many times can they be wrong before people lie interest?”

  5. R Shearer says:

    Based on photographic evidence, Mark Serreze will be completely gray and bald by 2025 (barring unusual circumstances like drastic medical intervention). Unfortunately, his hair loss and graying is not cyclical, like changes at the Earth’s pole.

    It may just be coincidental, but I’ve noticed these alarmists appear to be physically in poor shape, aged beyond their years or are just plain ugly (don’t search to see what Naomi Oreskes looks like for example, you’ll be sorry if you do because her looks could cause vomit to gag).

    Is there a causative relationship between mental health and physical health? Photos of alarmists would suggest there is (both detrimental in their cases).

  6. GTPath says:

    . . . “the Arctic climate system is now entering uncharted territory, with the computer models no longer providing a reliable guide to the future” . . . or to the past or to the present. So, can we stop paying for useless models?

  7. steve case says:


    Congratulations on tens years of what has to be hard work.

    I’ve been in contact with you since December of 2010. I had copied out some 2007 data from Climate at a Glance and found that by 2010 it had changed and ran it past Anthony Watts. I received email from you asking about my original data. Here’s a link to what I had found at that time:


    It’s a familiar curve to anyone who tracks ongoing changes to NOAA/GISS data.

    It would be nice if the next ten years finds that you need to find something else to do, as “Climate Change/Global Warming” turns out to not be an issue anymore.

    • spike55 says:

      MUST highlight that this is a graph of “ADJUSTMENTS”

      Otherwise it looks too much like the end product :-)

      • Steve case says:

        Yeah, that’s an issue, it says,”differences between data sets calculated and plotted out” but dirivitives like that aren’t always obvious to the intended audience. Thanks for the reply.

  8. Gerald Machnee says:

    Well, David Barber’s “rotten ice” must be pretty hardy as it is still there.
    The Amundsen is on its way to Resolute now. Maybe they will check how rotten it is now.

  9. Squidly says:

    Love the T-Shirt Tony !!!

  10. Griff says:

    That DMI ice chart is not right…

    It clearly shows ice where there is open water to a satellite image

    The extent this year is currently 5th lowest, behind 2012, 2007, 2016, 2017. The ice is clearly in a worse state than in 2008 and nowhere near pre 2007 levels.

    (and its still melting up there)

    • RAH says:

      What is “not right” is anyone still denying that what was predicted to happen by so many by now has not and in fact there is more sea ice now than there was when the alarmist “scientists” started singing their songs of Arctic ice doom.

    • spike55 says:

      You are DELIBERATELY LYING, griff

      You know that the extent is somewhere in the top 500-600 of the last 10,000 years.

      Only time it has been much higher was through the LIA cold anomaly, and the mid/late 1970s

      Even over the last decade, there is CLEARLY more sea ice this year than in 2008.

      2008 was spread very thin, this year is thick and solid.

      STOP YOUR LIES, griff.

    • spike55 says:

      Russians show LOTS OF SEA ICE, griff-troll..

      FAR more than for most of the first 9000+ years of the Holocene, griff.

      Or are going to continue with your pathetic, slovenly, cult-driven CLIMATE CHANGE DENIAL.

    • spike55 says:

      “The ice is clearly in a worse state than in 2008”

      This chart clearly shows just how much of a REPULSIVE, COMPULSIVE LAIR griff really is.

    • Gator says:

      I’m beginning to think that Ms Griff hates ice as much as she hates poor brown people. She clearly is hoping that it will all melt away, even though she says that would be a bad thing. These religious doomers are sick bastards.

      • Colorado Wellington says:

        I noticed long time ago that these weather doomers love fantasizing about things they swear will cause unspeakable suffering and kill billions.

    • arn says:

      You allah obviously operates under the name ice free arctic

  11. Buck Turgidson says:

    Congrats Tony — you run one of the best climate sites on the internet and I have learned a helluva lot from tuning in.

    Amazing that these climate prognosticators can be so dreadfully wrong…. yet be lauded with promotions and pay increases. What does it say for the state of science in this day and age, pathetic if you ask me.

    • Alan Tomalty says:

      Real science is doomed unless the whole of climate science is disbanded because it has never adopted the null hypothesis process. We will always need meteorology to forecast weather but climate science is a bogus science because we will never predict more than 2 weeks out for weather or climate. Thus if we cant know the future there is no sense worrying about it. Climate science must die.

  12. Mac says:

    I want one of those t-shirts.

  13. CO2isLife says:

    Great work Tony, you were/are right and the “experts” are and always will be wrong. Here is a whole list of arguments to defeat the warmists with the facts and science.

    Comprehensive Climate Change Debating Points and Graphics; Bring It Social Media Giants. This is Your Opportunity to Do Society Some Real Good


  14. Jeff Jones says:

    Great beefcake shot!!

  15. CheshireRed says:

    A sweet post. Alarmist claims entirely busted and refuted by observable evidence, and over a fairly reasonable length of time too. Doesn’t get much better.

  16. GW Smith says:

    You’re the man, Tony. Keep it up!

  17. Kevin Given says:

    Hey Tony;

    Do you have a video or can you do a video on YouTube about the cook report and their consensus of 98% of all scientists agree?

  18. Bob Snedeker says:

    Tony these guys have proven that algorithms are switching votes in Michigan. Please us check this out and push it out there!


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