Fraud In The National Climate Assessment (Part 2)

This is the second part of my series exposing fraud in the National Climate Assessment.  In the first part, I discussed graph B (US Heat Waves) on their summary page 38. In this part I am discussing graph F (Arctic Sea Ice Extent.)

Fourth National Climate Assessment

The graph shows a 50% decline in Arctic sea ice extent from 1979 to 2012, though they do not specify any units on the y-axis.

The graph was probably derived from the NOAA Arctic Report Card. which says

The Arctic sea ice cover continues the declining trends in the summer maximum and winter minimum extents. In 2018, the summer extent was the sixth lowest and the winter extent was the second lowest in the satellite record (1979-2018).

Sea Ice

The claim that satellite record begins in 1979 is incorrect, as the 1990 IPCC report showed NOAA satellite sea ice data since the early 1970s.

satellite observations have been used to map sea-ice extent routinely since the early 1970s. The American Navy Joint Ice Center has produced weekly charts which have been digitised by NOAA.

in 1972-1975 sea-ice extent was significantly less.

NOAA and the National Climate Assessment are hiding the pre-1979 data, probably because extent was “significantly less.”  The figures below from the 1990 IPCC report, show the data which is being hidden.

1990 IPCC Report

In 1971, National Geographic published this map of Arctic sea ice.

1971

Let’s compare that with ten years later, at the minimum on September 16, 1981.

N_19810916_extn_v3.0.png (420×500)

There was a large expansion of Arctic sea ice over the decade from 1971 to 1981.

The 1981 ice edge extended hundreds of miles past the 1971 ice edge. Even more telling is what NSIDC describes as the “1981-2010 median ice edge” – which extends far outside the 1971 edge. It is clear there was a lot less ice in 1971, which is why NOAA, Katharine Hayhoe, Michael Mann and their cohorts at the National Climate Assessment don’t want you to know about it.

It shouldn’t surprise anyone that we have satellite data for Arctic sea ice ice prior to 1979, because we went to the moon in 1969. Here is a beautiful photo of Arctic sea ice taken by Apollo 16 in 1972, seven years before 1979.

In 1965, National Geographic published Arctic satellite imagery – fourteen years before the fake National Climate Assessment start date of 1979.

The National Geographic Archive | February 1965 | page 1

This satellite imagery of Antarctic sea ice from 1976 shows how detailed the data was, and also shows that there was almost no Antarctic sea ice remaining during the summer – near the peak of the 1970s ice age scare.

The National Geographic Archive | November 1976 | page 1

But the data hiding story gets even worse. During the decade prior to 1975, Arctic sea ice extent increased by 12% – so extent was even lower prior to 1975. By 1975, Icelandic Ports were blocked with ice for the first time in a century, and climate scientists were warning of a new ice age. So we know that sea ice extent was much lower prior to the 1970s.

March 2, 1975 – B-r-r-r-r: New Ice Age on way soon? | Chicago Tribune Archive

In 1972, forty-two top American and European scientists sent a letter to President Nixon warning of a new ice age within a century.

THE ROLE OF NOAA’S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE SERVICES

By 1970, the US and Soviet Union were worried about a new ice age, and ominously thickening Arctic sea ice.

U.S. and Soviet Press Studies of a Colder Arctic – The New York Times

The 1985 DOE CO2 report was the predecessor of the IPCC, and shows that extent was very low in the 1950s, and then began to increase rapidly in the 1960s and 1970s – triggering fears of an ice age – as I will document shortly.

Projecting the climatic effects of increasing carbon dioxide (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect

If we combine the 1985 DOE graph and the 1990 IPCC graph at the same scale on both axes, it becomes clear why NOAA and the National Climate Assessment start their graphs in 1979.  That year was the high point of the last century, and by cherry picking a high point, they can mislead readers into believing sea ice extent is trending linearly down. If they showed the entire series, it would become clear that current sea ice extent and thickness is comparable to the 1950s.

Historical data confirms the warmth and low ice extent of the 1950s. Sixty years ago, the New York Times reported that the polar ice cap had lost 40 percent of its thickness and 12 percent of its area, and were predicting an ice-free Arctic within a generation.

Some scientists estimate that the polar ice pack is 40 per cent thinner and 12 per cent less in area than it was a half-century ago, and that even within the lifetime of our children the Arctic Ocean may open, enabling ships to sail over the North Pole

Although the idea that a solid ice sheet covers the central Arctic has lingered stubbornly in the popular fancy, the northern cap of ice worn by our planet is actually a thin crust—on the whole, only about seven feet thick—over an ocean two miles deep in places.

October 19, 1958

The Changing Face of the Arctic; The Changing Face of the Arctic – The New York Times

Polar temperatures are on an average six degrees higher than those registered by Nansen 40 years ago. Ice measurements were on an average only 6½ feet against from 9¼ to 13 feet.

February 23, 1940

23 Feb 1940 – THE NORTH POLE. Is it Getting Warmer. | BUNDABER…

Arctic sea ice was the same thickness in the 1940s and 1950s as it is now – two meters.

FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20181214.png (1337×1113)

Sea ice expanded rapidly in the 1960s and and 1970s, but from the 1920s through the 1950s, the Arctic was having a meltdown.

https://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/050/mwr-050-11-0589a.pdf

2 Nov 1922, Page 1 – Great Bend Tribune at Newspapers.com

17 Dec 1939, Page 15 – Harrisburg Sunday Courier

18 Feb 1952 – POLAR ICE THAW INCREASING

Evidence is overwhelming the Arctic climate and sea ice is cyclical, and raw, untampered data shows this is true. The NASA graph below of Reykjavik, Iceland temperatures shows why NOAA and the National Climate Assessment start their graphs in 1979 – which was the coldest year on record in Iceland.

V2 Measured

By starting their sea ice graphs in 1979, alarmists can fool people into believing sea ice extent is driven by CO2, instead of oceanic cycles.

Reykjavik GISS V2             AMO

The reality of Arctic climate ruins the global warming scam, so NASA now tries to hide the past warmth of the Arctic – by tampering with the data to cool the past.

October 2017 V3 Measured Vs Homogenized

Neither extent nor volume of Arctic sea ice shows any trend over the last 12 years.  Every year, climate scientists scream it is the hottest year ever, and the ice will soon disappear – but reality provides no evidence to back up their claims,

data       spreadsheet

data       spreadsheet

Climate scientists have been consistently wrong about the Arctic for 100 years, and all of their predictions have failed.

Expert: Arctic polar cap may disappear this summer_English_Xinhua

North Pole May Be Ice-Free for First Time This Summer

Star-News – Google News Archive Search

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’

Gore: Polar ice cap may disappear by summer 2014

The Argus-Press – Google News Archive Search

There is no indication anything has changed in the Arctic, other than normal 60 year cycles – but climate scientists have huge amounts of funding dependent on demonizing CO2 for politicians. So they lie, cheat, hide data and tamper with data.

Twenty thousand years ago, Chicago was covered with a mile of ice. CO2 was much lower than it is today.

Illinois State Geological Survey Glaciers Smooth the Surface | ISGS

Six thousand years ago, the Arctic was ice-free. CO2 was also much lower than it is today.

Less Ice In Arctic Ocean 6000-7000 Years Ago — ScienceDaily

The Northwest Passage was open in September, 1903, which NASA describes as one of the coldest years on record.

I saw it open before my ship the first year of my voyage, and would not take advantage of the chance because my programme was to make observations at the magnetic pole.

TimesMachine: March 9, 1907 – NYTimes.com

The Northwest Passage was not open this year.

The Northwest Passage was open during one of NASA’s coldest years on record, but was blocked with ice this year, which NASA says was one of the hottest years on record.

graph.png (1130×600)

There is no evidence CO2 has any impact on Arctic ice, but huge amounts of evidence that government climate scientists are defrauding the public.

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44 Responses to Fraud In The National Climate Assessment (Part 2)

  1. dennisambler says:

    Interesting that the Canadian ice breaker is called the Amundsen.

    THE NORTH WEST PASSAGE BEING THE RECORD OF A VOYAGE OF EXPLORATION OF THE SHIP “GJOA” 1903 – 1907 BY ROALD AMUNDSEN http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/IPY/ipy_009_pdf/G6501903A71908v1.pdf

    “We encountered no ice with the exception of a few narrow strips of old sound ice, carried by the wash. Of large Polar ice we saw absolutely nothing. Between the ice and the land, on either side, there were large and perfectly clear channels, through which we passed easily and unimpeded. The entire accumulation of ice was not very extensive. We were soon out again in open water.

    Outside the promontories, some pieces of ice had accumulated; otherwise the sea was free from ice. The water to the south was open, the impenetrable wall of ice was not there.

    Captain Knowles reports the season the most open he has ever known. He entered the Arctic on the day we left Sari Francisco, May 22, and thinks the straits were open even earlier than that.”

    • Phil. says:

      Captain Knowles reports the season the most open he has ever known. He entered the Arctic on the day we left Sari Francisco, May 22, and thinks the straits were open even earlier than that.

      This is a report from a revenue cutter sailing in the Chukchi sea in 1880, the straits referred to being the Bering Straits. The report claims to have sailed all the accessible seas that summer having reached Point Barrow late in August and reaching Herald Island but being unable to reach Wrangell.
      Report of the Cruise of the U.S. Revenue-steamer Corwin in the Arctic Ocean
      Not sure what its relevance to this topic is though, except that there was more ice there in 1880 than these days.

      Also the random passage from Amundsen about the state of ice in the Baffin Sea in August without context (at least you linked the source for that one).

      • R Shearer says:

        There is more ice there today than during most of the past 9000 years or so. Ice waxes and wanes regardless of atmospheric CO2 levels. There is nothing exceptional to it.

      • spike55 says:

        1880 shows up on the Icelandic sea ice index as having an extent possibly even higher than the mid/late 1970’s

        Part of the Little Ice Age extreme sea ice anomaly.

        That short period of the LIA is essentially the “reference” period for AGW sea ice , and yet it was only about 300 years of extreme high anomalous extents out of the current interglacial 10,000 years

  2. GTPath says:

    Wouldn’t surprise us if, years from now, they start reporting global cooling. What are they going to do with all those “Paris Climate Accord saves the Arctic from Global Warming” articles that have already been written and peer-reviewed for future publication?

  3. Squidly says:

    I love the “Hawaii ocean acidity” section of their cartoon. Hahaha .. what a joke. Apparently the Pacific ocean, since going all the way back to, wait for it, 1990, is turning into battery acid.

    Puleeez… you can dissolve all of the atmospheric CO2 into the oceans and you would be hard pressed to be able to measure the change in pH. Just the top 3m of sea water contain more CO2 than all of the atmosphere above it.

    They really need to stop with the lie about “ocean acidification”.

  4. R Shearer says:

    The following reference (Parkinson 1989) corroborates the availability of satellite data starting in about 1972, as well as a rising Arctic extent from that time to about 1976.

    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/JC094iC10p14499

    One can get a pdf copy via Scihub.

    • Johansen says:

      How do Hayhoe and friends respond to this information? Do they have a response? Just curious….

      • R Shearer says:

        They defend their thesis like a lawyer would. If it’s not supportive, they ignore it or attack it.

        • Louis Hooffstetter says:

          And if that didn’t work, they would react just like most other ‘climate scientists’ lauded by the MSM:

          They would stick their fingers in their ears, close their eyes as tightly as possible, and yell at the top of their lungs: “Nya!, Nya!, Nya!, Nya! I can’t hear you!!”

        • Colorado Wellington says:

          And while not as smart as Richard “Racehorse” Haynes*), they became very good in the art of alternative defense. They have argued or will soon argue that:

          Cold spells confirm a global cooling hypothesis.

          Heat waves confirm a manmade global warming hypothesis.

          Lack of snow confirms a manmade global warming hypothesis.

          Heat waves and cold spells confirm a manmade global warming hypothesis.

          Heavy snowfalls confirm a manmade global warming hypothesis.

          What global warming? Cold spells confirm a global cooling hypothesis.

          —————

          *) Haynes loves discussing his cases to teach young lawyers about trial practice. In 1978, he told attendees at an ABA meeting in New York City that attorneys too often limit their strategic defense options in court. When evidence inevitably surfaces that contradicts the defense’s position, lawyers need to have a backup plan.

          “Say you sue me because you say my dog bit you,” he told the audience. “Well, now this is my defense: My dog doesn’t bite. And second, in the alternative, my dog was tied up that night. And third, I don’t believe you really got bit.”

          His final defense, he said, would be: “I don’t have a dog.”

          http://www.abajournal.com/magazine/article/richard_racehorse_haynes

  5. Disillusioned says:

    Devastating.

    Those determined to blame CO2 will ignore all of this, or make picayune arguments – and above all will keep believing in globalist voodoo science and the superstitious magic of CO2.

  6. gregole says:

    Stories I’ve heard in my lifetime:

    Immanent Ice: Age M@nn-Made; particulate pollution. Arctic to grow without bound – famine and climactic catastrophe. “Scientists” beg governments to take action.

    Global Warming: M@nn-Made; CO2. Arctic to disappear by 2000 – catastrophic heating the oceans will boil away. “Scientists” beg governments to take action.

    Climate Change: M@nn Made; CO2. Arctic to disappear by 2000 – catastrophic heating the oceans will boil away. “Scientists” beg governments to take action.

    Climate to be wrecked – not sure what that means. “Scientists” beg governments to take action.

    This is what I’ve heard during my adult life. None of this stuff happens. It was only during the 2009 Climategate affair that I began to realize it’s all fake. The people pushing it are clever (or so they think…) charlatans. Phonies. The people that believe it are ignorant suckers. Or they’re in on the scam and making a few bucks on the side.

  7. John Westman says:

    Tony
    The Northwest Passage has been traversed a number of times last century.
    In the early 1940’s the Canadians traversed the passage several times with the “St Roch”.
    In 1954 another Canadian ship, the HMCS “Labrador”, a warship, passed through.
    An American oil tanker passed through in 1969, carrying a symbolic barrel of oil from Prudhoe Bay.

    I wonder if Al Gores knows about these traverses? I expect, that if he did, he would keep quiet. This would match the attitudes of the promoters of the climate con movement.
    Reference data: The Quest for the North West Passage”, published by the Folio Society, of Britain.

    • Phil. says:

      In the early 1940’s the Canadians traversed the passage several times with the “St Roch”.

      Actually twice only one of which was a single season, 40-42 and 44.

      In 1954 another Canadian ship, the HMCS “Labrador”, a warship, passed through.
      An icebreaker.

      An American oil tanker passed through in 1969, carrying a symbolic barrel of oil from Prudhoe Bay.

      The SS Manhattan, escorted by two icebreakers.

      • spike55 says:

        Note: the St Roch (1944) could hardly have been called a “icebreaker”

        Yes its bow was face with Aussie Ironbark, probably more resilient that steel, but not an icebreaker class boat.

        Very low powered for its weight, as well.

        Yet still managed the pass through beside Banks Island.

        Unlike recent trips that have skulked around through Cambridge Bay.

        • Phil. says:

          No one has called the St Roch an ‘icebreaker’, it carried explosives in case it needed to break up any ice.

          Here’s the St Roch trying to make it through McClure Strait
          https://gutenberg.ca/ebooks/larsenh-northwestpassage/larsenh-northwestpassage-00-h-dir/images/img-046.jpg
          According to Henry Larsen:
          “August 30th, and enjoyed a clear run south-westward for 30 miles, although the heavy pack could be seen to the south of us. We were now in waters never before traversed by any vessel, the eastern entrance to McClure Strait. We encountered the heaviest ice of the voyage here, of large unbroken floes. We were soon forced to moor to the ice, and so took the opportunity to fill our fresh water tanks from the fresh water pools on the ice. We were hampered a great deal by thick fog and sleet, but taking advantage of every little opportunity we gradually worked southward, alternately tying up to the ice and drifting. Fortunately the weather now was almost calm, with only a slight draft of wind from the north. The floes to which we moored appeared to revolve in a clockwise motion, as we always found ourselves on the north side of the floe, after being tied up to it for a few hours. Late p.m. September 2nd land suddenly loomed up ahead through the fog and we were again forced to moor to a grounded floe close to shore and await better weather, for, because of our merry-go-round drift, I couldn’t decide whether we were near Russell Point on Banks Island or Peel Point on Victoria Island. Daylight, September 3rd, we continued up what proved to be Richard Collinson’s Inlet. We soon found out our mistake, so turning around we followed the coast back and soon were in Prince of Wales Strait. There were only a few small pieces of ice, and wonderful clear weather and sunshine greeted us. It was really the only fine day we had during the entire passage;”

          • spike55 says:

            Passage passed Banks Island made in 1944, Phool.

            GET OVER IT !!!

          • Phil. says:

            I posted Larsen’s description of that passage above. His intention was to sail via McClure but found it impassable due to thick ice so he turned back and found Prince of Wales to be clear.
            Similar to how the MV Nunavik found it in 2014.

          • spike55 says:

            Sailed down Prince of Wales Straight in 1944 in an underpower sloop with zero satellite assistance.

            GET OVER IT, PHOOOL !!

          • spike55 says:

            McClure Strait is always impassable due to thick ice, or has been since the extreme highs of the late 1970s.

            Another POINTLESS comment from the phool. !

          • spike55 says:

            “Similar to how the MV Nunavik found it in 2014.”

            So you are saying 1944 sea ice extent was similar to 2014.

            I think we can all agree on that. :-)

            Keep digging .. its hilarious. ! :-)

  8. Louis Hooffstetter says:

    In the 1960’s there were ~5,000 polar bears.
    Today, only 30,000 or so remain.

  9. angech says:

    A bit like Nic Lewis, very detailed. Or perhaps too detailed. Good to have all the points you have made for emphasis but the message gets a little diluted.
    This year has shown an amazing amount of natural variation. I ama sure you are aware of this.
    This is a story that would prove interesting.

  10. angech says:

    From Arxtic sea ice forum.
    What a stunner.
    (JAXA)] ASI Extent. December 16th, 2018:
    11,752,725 km2, an increase of 263,728 km2. :o
    2018 is now the 9th lowest on record. ::)

  11. angech says:

    must be wrong?

    • Phil. says:

      Yes it’s wrong.
      According to Uni-Bremen:
      “Notice: Sea ice concentration: Data problem Dec 16, 2018

      There is a gap of about 14 hours in the data for Dec 16, therefore the sea ice concentration data of Dec 16 are incomplete, In addition, apparently one swath had corrupted data, causing strange values in the Greenland Sea and Barents Sea. We will reprocess as soon as the data are complete.”

      • spike55 says:

        Current level is about the same as it has been for the last 10 years.

        Down from the anomalous high of the late 1970s, but FAR HIGHER than for most of the last 10,000 years.

        Still in the top 10% or maybe even top 5%

        With cold weather heading towards Baffin Bay, expect the level to increase significantly over the next couple of weeks.

  12. Keith says:

    Great work as always.

  13. Phil. says:

    The 1981 ice edge extended hundreds of miles past the 1971 ice edge. Even more telling is what NSIDC describes as the “1981-2010 median ice edge” – which extends far outside the 1971 edge. It is clear there was a lot less ice in 1971, which is why NOAA, Katharine Hayhoe, Michael Mann and their cohorts at the National Climate Assessment don’t want you to know about it.

    Not true, what Tony identifies as the 1971 ice edge is not the ice edge, as is clearly shown on the map it is the “Limit of Multiyear Ice”. The limit of multiyear ice is shown on the following map as 2yo and older, these days it’s only 2 million sq km, it’s halved since 1985.

    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2018/10/Figure5a.png

  14. James says:

    Tony, thank you for your reliably steady defense of reality in a power/control hungry world who try to achieve their nefarious purposes through deception & corruption. We need millions of voices like yours. The time and effort you put into defending the truth and providing timely information is greatly appreciated.

  15. Steven Fraser says:

    DMI Sea Ice volume stats for Dec 16:

    This day’s volume is 16,570 cu km, 97.96% of the average for the day in the 16-year series, and 97.96% of the day’s average in the 10-year, DMI-charted reference period 2014-2013.

    After a 9-day period (dec 4-12) where DMI reported below-average Sea Ice Volume growth, the growth rates have returned to above-average for the last 3 or 4 days. Its not possible to be precise on this due to the missing data on Dec 13.

    DMI Sea Ice Volume growth has passed a milestone in the past few days. Since the Sept 10 low stand of 6,213 cu km, Volume has now grown by more than 10,000 cu km, now 166.71% higher than the low stand value.

    Looking at the forecasts for arctic temps, in the next 10 days a very cold air mass is spreading Eastward into Baffin Bay, the Davis Straight and the Labrador sea. It will be interesting to see how this affects ice growth in the are.

  16. Douglas Blakely says:

    Tony, your work is so important.

    We are told that burning fossil fuels generates CO2 which is warming the Earth. What was the theory in the 70s when they feared an ice age, based on burning of fossil fuels?

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