The David Appell Trend

David Appell re-appears.

December 6, 2018 at 5:09 am

This is the graph David wants plotted, with a peak on the left side and a trough on the right side. The trend is down.

Let’s do the same plot with a trough on the left side, and a peak on the right side. Now the trend is going up.

If you want to plot a meaningful trend through a cyclical function, the left and right ends have to be symmetrical, like I made it in the original post. This requires choosing the start and end dates appropriately.

masie_4km_allyears_extent_sqkm.csv

But thanks for the laugh, David.

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34 Responses to The David Appell Trend

  1. spike55 says:

    Be gentle TH, poor David can’t help it if he is mathematical inebriate and imbecile.

    Carries through from the rest of his pathetic, empty, brain-numbed existence.

    • R Shearer says:

      Appell ought to worry about his own health and do something to shed a few pounds before he tells us what we should do and believe and how righteous he is.

      • Gator says:

        Judging by his symptoms, it is more likely toxoplasmosis.

        Scientific findings link toxoplasmosis to several mental disorders

        • R Shearer says:

          That is an old picture from when he was relatively “fit.” Global warming has since caused him to approximate the Pillsbury Doughboy with an attitude. He together with Michael Moore could seriously strain a few elevators.

        • R Shearer says:

          Here is a more recent video with Mr. Appell “debating.” Watch from ~55 min to the end and you likely will come to the conclusion that he is physically and mentally ill.

          https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/06/28/weather-wars-live-climate-debate-turns-nasty-video/

          • Disillusioned says:

            He LIED and said the CO2-based models support AGW! How could anyone but a religious ‘believer’ perpetuate such a preposterous LIE?

            Fatty Arbuckle’s arguments are proof AGW is a faith-based initiative.

          • steve case says:

            I’ve watched it so far to the point that the guy on my side of things is a retired airline pilot. You know what? Aircraft pilots don’t do what they do by believing in fairy tales. Their lives depend on getting it right.

          • steve case says:

            At 14:57 those predictions weren’t wrong – Ill talk about that in a second = He never did.

            I stopped shortly after that – I don’t have 59 minutes to listen to B.S.

          • Disillusioned says:

            Steve,
            I fast-forwarded to 55 minutes as RShearer suggested. Beginning at 15 where you stopped listening, Roscoe Arbuckle was saying precisely the same BS. Perhaps he repeated his simple merry-go-round of circular reasoning, over and over again, for an hour.

            (I don’t blame you; I’m not going to waste my time listening to him for an hour, either.)

  2. rah says:

    He went off on Joe Bastardi when I posted at Dr. Spencer’s blog back in the spring of this year that Joe was predicting a mild El Nino that would probably be the Modoki type. I couldn’t resist rubbing his nose in it when the very thing Joe had predicted started to manifest in the ENSO.

    http://firsthandweather.com/3796/winter-2018-2019-discussion-modoki-el-nino/

  3. Louis Hooffstetter says:

    Appell also vehemently argues ‘the Pause’ (the 19 year long hiatus in global warming) never really happened. And he calls us deniers!

    What a comedian!

  4. Anon says:

    It is a bit humorous when Tony presents it this way. But it was not until I arrived here at RCS that I realized anyone actually does science this way. “He who dictates the end points, dictates the trend.” The Appell Trend is just another, albeit more subtle, version of this:

    NOAA : Hiding Critical Arctic Sea Ice Data

    https://youtu.be/nIEGo8E9s_8

  5. Glacierman says:

    David Appell has about single handedly made Dr. Spencer’s blog unreadable……but that is probably his asignment.

    • rah says:

      There are a couple others. Never ending BS. 100s of useless argument messages on a single post. Really is a shame.

    • michael hart says:

      Yes, Glacierman. I used to go there more often myself and read comments, sometimes adding my own.

      Then I found myself just counting the number of comments Appell would frequently swamp the blog with, as a % of total comments.

      Now I just go occasionally to look at the recent data, or if someone comments elsewhere about something Roy has just written. Free speech and open debate on a blog is one thing, but Roy is too lenient with Appell. He goes well beyond what most would call “trolling”. Appell strikes me as an internet stalker, not a troll.

      There a few bores on Judith Curry’s blog who, while not as bad as Appell, make it no longer worth the effort to read the comments. That’s a shame because there are many regular commenters on both blogs who are instructive or educational, managing to say something highly readable with less than 10% of the verbiage of the trolls.

  6. Lance says:

    David…the gift that keeps giving!

  7. Dee says:

    Some people were terribly upset after the flaws in the recent “60% extra heat in the oceans” paper were publicised.

    The proper scientific procedures hadn’t been adhered to you see, and it was handled incorrectly.

    No, not in the research itself, but in how the errors in it were made public.

    Didn’t seem to realise that the comments section hosted by the scientific journal wasn’t just provided in order for earth scientists to have a platform to congratulate each other on getting something published in it.

  8. Bruce of Newcastle says:

    This illustrates the advantage of using the anomaly values instead of the seasonally affected values. It’s easy to do by deducting the 30 year average for each individual month or day (depending on the dataset used) from the respective datapoints. Then it is easier to see an underlying trend, and easier to avoid endpoint problems like this.

    Tony knows this intimately, but Dave Appell may not (and I’ve had many a blog comment fight with Dave).

    • Bruce of Newcastle says:

      I should add that the resulting trend doesn’t have to be linear.

      Indeed the Masie data almost certainly will have a pseudo sinusoidal signal with a ~60 year cycle. Because that’s what the AMO has.

    • spike55 says:

      The WHOLE AGW scam rests on the upward leg of the AMO.

      The downward leg will start to manifest over the next several years.

      They KNOW this, which is why the UTTER DESPERATION to get their real agenda in place before the cooling part of the cycle kicks in.

      • Disillusioned says:

        “The WHOLE AGW scam rests on the upward leg of the AMO.”

        Bingo and BOOM!

      • RonnyLee says:

        A contingency of national signatories agreeing to draconian reductions in emissions, enforced by the repression and regressive taxation of their citizens, will be able to point to the downleg of the AMO and say, “this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal…”
        They are like the shaman who portends the eclipse in Mel Gibson’s film, “Apocalypto”…and the believers will rejoice and redouble their pogroms against the skeptics and deniers.

    • Phil. says:

      So if “Tony knows this intimately” why did he not plot the
      anomaly instead?

      • Gator says:

        Why not ask Tony, you serial know-nothing nitpicker?

        I’ll ask again.

        Can you, Phail, please provide examples of your harassing nitpicking on alarmist blogs?

        If not, F-off you worthless troll.

        • Phil. says:

          I believe this is Tony’s blog so he’s free to answer if he wishes. Where else I post and what I post there is none of your business.

          • Gator says:

            So no, you cannot show that you are a nonpartisan commenter, you are a cheerleader for alarmists and you are a worthless know-nothing nit picking troll.

            Thanks for finally admitting that you have a very serious problem, that is the first step towards recovery, Phail.

      • spike55 says:

        Phool.. Contributing ABSOLUTELY NOTHING , as usual

        You are an empty sack, phool !

  9. My advice…..just block David Appell. Not worth the effort arguing with him.

  10. DR says:

    Why isn’t he here now?

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