NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center predicted a warm January for the US. Instead it was the 16th coldest January on record, with snow in all 53 states, including Mexico, Greenland and Canada,
Climate Prediction Center – OFFICIAL 30-Day Forecasts
Heavy snow fell at the Gulf of America coast.
According to Grok, models have no skill forecasting ten days out, but are reasonably accurate on a century time frame.
Do you think in that having their forecast consistently too high would influence them to modify their model?
Absolutely.
Every time this happens they modify their models
to make even higher predictions.
Conrad, much the same as others, past wrong predictions mean very little to these people, it always about their next prediction.
I don’t want Mexico or Canada ….just Greenland
We already have 1/4 of Mexico’s population and secretly Canada would love to become the 51st, just so they could claim the Stanley Cup back.
As far as Greenland, we already have more military and civilians in Greenland then the Danes do ,Thule Air Force Base(Pituffik) and other secret bases plus the research stations
about 30 years ago a late acquaintance of mine told me about Thule, where he had served in the army back in the ’40s or ’50s?. it’s an air base… now has a different name…. located in far Northwest Greenland. I had never heard of it. he said it was the most god-awful place to live. very cold and foggy and cloudy and miserable. if we want to take Greenland by force it shouldn’t be too hard since we already have an air base there. lol. of course we don’t want Greenland but we can work out some cooperation agreement. as for all their vast mineral wealth, I don’t see a way to get at it. how can you mine underneath a moving glacier?
I was a little bit surprised that our host Tony says we had dozens of states that had a below average January because that’s not the case where I live in central Minnesota. granted we had a fairly cold 3 weeks but the last week in January was really warm.. thankfully! we turned out just a hair above average. Southwest Minnesota and Northern Iowa were way above average in temperature. how can this be and if you look at where the cold states are it’s obvious why. for the second winter in a row, after having record snowfall 2 years ago we’ve got almost no snow in the southern half of Minnesota. the huge snow storm missed us, it went from roughly Colorado to Washington DC and dumped a lot of snow and that’s where your states are that are way below average in temperature. in the winter having a foot of snow on the ground really makes a big difference in what your temperatures are going to be, compared to bare ground.
My mother warned me, “Don’t get your weather forecasts from a Climate Prediction Center.”
These actions by Punxsutawney NOAA are for entertainment purposes, only. No one acts on their cheesy forecasts.
Anyone else remember back in 2015, when the Met Office unveiled their latest update:[Even Newer Dynamics for General atmospheric modelling of the environment (ENDGame)] they mistakenly made this comment.
New Dynamics has served us well over more than a decade: not only have we continued to improve the skill of our large scale forecasts at the rate of 1 day lead time per decade (so for example today’s 3 day forecast is as accurate as the 2 day forecast was 10 years ago) but we have seen the introduction of a very high resolution (1-1/2 km) model over the UK which provides unprecedented levels of detail to our forecasters.
And their updated system continued this 1 in 10yr rate last year. So they are now at a 4 day forecast and will be able to get a 7 day forecast just a accurate as 10 years ago 2 day forecast in only 30 more years.
Now if they could just get an accurate 2 day forecast they might have something to sell.