Jason Samenow of the Washington Post is my choice to head up the Department of Stupid Statistics. Here are some suggestions.
- June 2012 was the first June where the temperature on June 25, 26 and 29 was 95 degrees by 10:30 in the morning
- June 2012 was the first year with three days that reached 99 degrees by 11 am but didn’t reach 102 degrees by 3pm
Statistics that must never be used are things like :
- The total number of hot days
- The trend in the number of hot days
- The number of days over 100 degrees
- The average high for the summer
- The decadal trend for hot days
- The hottest days of the summer
Most importantly – pick only very isolated one shot statistics to support the non-existent trend you are trying to prove.
Two out of three statistical reports contain errors the forty percent are just plain wrong!
Just issued a bit of a challenge. Normally by end of July DC will have 21 90 degree days. They had 8 in June, one over normal, and they first 8 of course this month will be above 90, given them 16 by the 8th. But given pattern it may be quite some time ( a week, 10 days..etc.. lots of rain coming) before they hit it again. Pattern more steambox than sauna ( though we throw waters on ours to crank it up) In any case, lets see what happened.
This morning was the first morning I got through with my Saturday morning workout before the temperature had risen more than 10 degrees from the morning low. and while wearing blue sweatpants and a black t shirt, as opposed to my normal grey sweatshirt and gray sweatpants. Sure sign of global warming
Yeah, last Saturday I rode up to the painted “A” on the hogback behind the CSU football stadium, and it was close to 100 degrees. Today it was below 60. Quite a change!
Steven, You know that 60 degrees was only due to the Urban Hockey Rink Island effect. It would been 90 degrees easy 😉
This reminds me about the useless sports trivia flashed on the TV screen during games that are possible only because of data mining by fast computers. If you look hard enough retrospectively, you can find data that support any trend or conclusion you want.
In medical research, prospective studies that test prespecified hypotheses are far more valuable than drawing conclusions retrospectively about how a drug or therapy benefitted a particular subset of patients. I often see how such conclusions are subsequently proven false by better quality studies.
I challenge any AGW alarmist to show me a CO2-driven climate model that has accurately PROSPECTIVELY predicted the global temp (besides Hansen’s 1981 model) AND the catastrophic effects of that temp (i.e. frequency and severity of tornadoes/hurricanes/floods/droughts and resultant deaths and displacements of people). After all, even if temps are warming, it is tough to prove that CO2 is the primary cause rather than natural cycles and that such warming is harmful.
The cherrypicking by alarmists citing the U.S. heat wave as proof of AGW is ridiculous, disingenuous, and purely ideological. True scientist look at the big global picture. Maybe Gore, Hansen, Jones, Romm, Hayhoe, McKibben, Trenberth, Mann, etc. are all vacationing in Chicago and have forgotten about the rest of the planet.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/07/the-folly-of-blaming-the-eastern-u-s-heat-wave-on-global-warming/#more-66965
The cold front has started to move into the NW suburbs of Chicago. We’re at 85 deg (1:51 p.m. O’Hare) and dropping. We never hit the high of 97 deg predicted for today.
Good points, and always remember that we are recovering from the well-documented Little Ica Age, and the LIA was a key thing that Berkeley graduate M Mann suppressed in his h stick fabrication.
But on the sports thing, lol. A sportscaster: “Ok, this double is a record of sorts; it is the first time in 12 years that a visiting team player in the third inning of a July ballgame has hit a ground rule double after the two previous batters grounded out. Get Drudge on the phone!” /
By earlier next week, the bottom falls out of the temperatures in D.C., with 86, 84 and 85 forecast for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. With the recent eruption of the hot air from the AGW alarmists, it’s no wonder parts of the country are experiencing a heat wave. In the meatime, we hear nothing from the media about the cool temperatures out west and the record rainfall, flooding and low temperatures in Britain.
It’s just unimaginable that the U.S. would experience a heat wave during the summer. Surely, CO2 is to blame, just as it is the cause of cold and blizzards, floods and droughts, and fires and derechos. CO2 has become the universal bogeyman — the Michael Myers of climate change –unleashed by Warmists at every opportunity to scare the public.
Exactly. We have a localized summer heat wave and fire, normal occurrences since time immemorial, and the Chicken Littles are out in force crowing excitedly that the end is near. But, at the same time that this heat wave was going on we have record cold temps out west and in FL. And across the globe in the UK and Australia and elsewhere the story has been about it being cold, not hot.
Department of Supid Weather Commentary – Greg Rusedski on hot weather:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTqqJT4De4I
Supid = Stupid