The last ice age began when winter snow accumulation in Canada started exceeding summer melt. Are we headed in that direction? Canada is covered with very thick snow this spring, which is going to take a long time to melt.
National Snow Analyses – NOHRSC – The ultimate source for snow information
Isn’t this just scaremongering in the opposite direction as the CAGW crowd? I’m as sceptical of “Ice Age now” claims as I am of Hansen.
Ice ages happen cyclically. We are about due for the next one.
On geological timescales, I agree.
Historical climate data tells us that there are two and only two climate regimes – glacial and interglacial. There is no third regime distinctively hotter than the last umpteen interglacials. So on this basis one should be more skeptical of Hanson’s fabulous tipping points leading to thermageddon than for the a plunge into the next ice age.
That an Ice Age will happen is inevitable as the sun rising tomorrow. My objection is to the timescale currently being predicted from a number of sceptical quarters. I think such predictions just make us look as daft as the CAGW crowd, and I wish people would stop making them.
We’re approaching the end of the recent interglacial, which we’ve been in for about 11,500 years. Previous interglacial periods have lasted somewhere in the neighborhood of, you guessed it, 11,500 years. It could be centuries or millennia before we plunge into another period of glaciation — or it could happen in our lifetime. Who knows? The sun has gone quiet (few sunspots and low solar flux), the PDO is negative and the AMO will go negative within a decade. Add in a major volcanic eruption, and you’ll have what meteorologist Joe Bastardi calls “the triple crown of cooling.”
The least of our worries is global warming, which, as history shows, has been beneficial to human civilization.
Yeah, beneficial when there were only about 2 million people total and most lived in warm climates such as Mediterranean, India, South Asia. Not when we are live ALL over the globe and have to feed 7 billion people.
The Sun is temporarily quiet, it will wake up.
And if an ice age is coming up then you should be really really REALLY worried how we are gonna be feeding those 7 billion people, not try desperately to disprove the global warming.
discussion on this yesterday at WUWT as to actual cirrectness of some of the areas coverdepth
one commenter said he lived where they stated deep snow and there was little to none.
hmm
however yes it is apparently how it begins, interesting old book by some weather chaps called the Sixth Winter I read years back,, the premise was by the 6th year of incomplete melt and following buildups it would be enough to change weather patterns.
late 60s? before the ice age hansen ehrlich etc.
to Derek above, well while the worlds chasing fairies re warming that isnt happening Facts and 3 shitty snowy winters across entire Nth hem shouldnt be ignored and sure is NOT warming..
while we waste heaps on that, instead of considering BOTH alternatives and adapting to either seriously, -cutting fuel and resource use which as UK with 36 hrs gas supply now on rationing shows us,, ..we have some nasty upcomin lessons to be learnt, the hard way.
they stated 30k deaths attributed to Coldlast year,, they dont add millionms of animals dead of starvation from it either.
more humans and animals die from cold, ditto crops dont grow
, at least in heat if you have some water you might get something.
personally I am set up for warm, but also have ability to make my home liveable in much colder wetter events., hedging bets is always smart.
warmist thinking refuses to admit that option. bad bad imove
With the Sun conspicuously quiet (approaching solar-max with barely 60 SSN), the PDO gone negative several years ago, the NAO drifting toward negative, and global ocean heat content in decline .. .. .. I’m willing to go out on a limb and say a cooling trend is “highly likely” for the next couple of decades.
Dress warm or move south. Food will get much more expensive as crop yields decline, unless we use more energy to grow it under controlled conditions
It’s not how an ice age begins. But it is how antecedent conditions develop into a seasonal pattern of cool, wet weather during the summer months. It’s looking more likely that we’ll see a spring/summer similar to 2009. Of course, that was because of climate change back then (since every weather event is now climate change) so cool weather this summer will likely be described as climate change too. They’ll find some excuse and insert language implying some loose connection to climate change.
Actually, now that I’m thinking about this…yes, it’s all coming back to me now…
2009 was supposed to be this ungodly hot, dry year since 2009 began with a La Nina.
Instead it was cool and wet. This is when we were flooded with the very convenient “more atmospheric moisture is due to global warming” studies to explain away the cool, wet weather we were getting. Now, and forever more, every time it’s wetter than normal, or cooler than normal, you will hear about “the warmer atmosphere holds more water.” But this hasn’t just been limited to seasonal observations, it is now used to describe individual storms which deposit large amounts of precipitation. Of course, this study has been further manipulated during the winter months, namely beginning after the Snowmaggedon and Snowpocalypse storms. The cruel irony of ALL this right before those two blockbuster Mid-Atlantic snowstorms it was said the lack of snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic of recent years was due to global warming, and the dearth of snow was expected to continue and worsen. And as if that wasn’t enough, right before The Snowquester snowstorm the alarmists were once again cooing about the lack of snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic being due to global warming.
This is enough to make one’s head spin. The contradictions, the incongruity; but it’s all by design. Just like every other advocacy position Leftists take to advance their bankrupt ideology, it’s wrought with such dead-end conclusions and dichotomy but is done so in such an overwhelming way by the time one sorts through it all to make sense out of it, the Leftist has already accomplished what they set out to do.
I think my description is exactly how an ice age begins.
It’s the lefty’s way of jamming a square peg into a round hole. They make it fit through coercion and media blindness. They make a conclusion and present a hypothesis instead of the inverse.
I was reading about the Milankovitch cycle yesterday. It appears that periods of glaciation begin with cooler summers, as Steve pointed out. As summers turn cooler, not all the snow melts.
Kirk,
But it’s the root cause of the cool summer which initiates an ice age.
Kepler’s laws of planetary motion best describes the main driver of Milankovitch Cycles, specifically Kepler’s Second Law.
When a planet is closer to its parent star the faster it moves. Currently we’re closer to the sun during the winter months and furthest away during the summer months. Therefore the winter season is shorter than the summer season in the Northern Hemisphere. But there’s a retrogression in Earth’s orbit in relation to its axis. So as the Earth slowly orbits into a position where the northern hemisphere summer occurs at aphelion, as opposed to perihelion, the summer season will now be shorter and winter longer. This keeps the northern hemisphere at a lower sun angle almost every day of the year, aside from close to the solstices. This is what causes the cooler summers and the snow cover across the northern hemisphere to stick around.
I didn’t say anything about temperature. I stated the obvious fact that an ice age starts when winter snow exceeds summer melt in Canada.
This is how one panic ends, and another begins. For the alarmists, nothing is ever natural, and everything is a disaster.
Bingo!
This is how one panic ends, and another begins. For the alarmists, nothing is ever natural, and everything is a disaster.
And we can be sure, in the highly unlikely event that we did start to slide into another “little ice age”, they alarmists would still try to blame CO2, and propose exactly the same lucrative (for them) solutions.
A peer reviewed letter to Nature
Will greenhouse warming lead to Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet growth?
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v355/n6357/abs/355244a0.html
Blame Canada
that was a great clip eh!!
Now that Gore cashed his check for $200 million, suddenly we are in a cooling trend! He may have been wrong but he was smart in doing so. The wretch!
Best salesman in the USA.
I think that we may already be slipping into a “Little Ice Age” and when the AMO becomes negative in the next 5 – 10 years, look out below (as in falling temperatures).
You do realise that if we did slip into another Little Ice Age a paper would come out from Warmists blaming man one way or another. If they can’t finger co2 they’ll finger something.
The long term trend from the Minoan Warmth period, the Roman Warmth Period, the Medieval Warmth Period up tocurrent times is COOLING. We now do have entered a solar minimum period which nobody reallt knows how this will develop. This solar minimum now coincides with a negative PDO/AMO and a at this moment a severely negative Arctic oscilation. The jet stream, meandering with slight north and south bound diversions has dropped so far south and now meanders so extreme that depressions shed their rains on Southern Europe and North Africa and huge amounts of air from the topics are smashed into thee cold air masses from the arctic. Aditionally periodic easterly winds blow in cold from Siberia. What we see and have seen this winter is a heat destruction machine and judged by the weather it’s still going strong. I am convinced by study and observation that we are heading into a colder period of time comparable with Dalton or even the Maunder Minimum but to claim that we’re entering a new ice age really is a bridge to far for me.
Where I lived in the Netherlands the last ice age carved up the landscape leaving some big polished boulders as a reminder. That’s how far the glaciers went that sprouted from the Alps. The moment I see a wall of ice with jodeling shepards from Austria on top of it coming around the corner I give you guys a call. Won’t happen in my life time.
If you look at global temp it’s hardly changed in a decade or two, so there is no evidence for anything you have asserted. You’re looking at correlations and there is an endless supply of them in climate science. That’s how the AGW train wreck got started.
NH winter temperatures and snowfall have shown a marked trend over the last decade. Why are you afraid of science?
Steve,
is this the trend you are referring to?
Here: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/jonescru/graphics/glnhsh.png
Or here: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/jonescru/graphics/nhsea.png
Or here: Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover variability and change over 1922–2010 including an assessment of uncertainty – Brown & Robinson (2011)
“Trend analysis of the updated SCE series provides evidence that NH spring snow cover extent has undergone significant reductions over the past ~90 yr and that the rate of decrease has accelerated over the past 40 yr. The rate of decrease in March and April NH SCE over the 1970–2010 period is ~0.8 million km2 per decade corresponding to a 7% and 11% decrease in NH March and April SCE respectively from pre-1970 values.”
Plus many more here: http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com.au/2013/02/papers-on-northern-hemisphere-snow.html
Are you aware of the fact that winter is not spring?
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=1
😆 T.O.O. much! YOWZA! and that other name!
Steve,
Are you speaking about the meteorological or astronomical winter? Just joking. You obviously didn’t look at the evidence, because then you would not have asked such a question. To sum it up, I found more than a dozen studies and graphs of NH winter trends and not a single one agrees with your assessment.
Just goes to prove that you are an idiot.
Me,
That last post (Lazarus) was for your benefit.
Signed,
T.O.O. (the artist formerly known as Lazarus)
Steve,
I see. The man with the evidence is the idiot and the man who offers no evidence is the smart one. Unless of course, on Tuesday, which is Opposite Day.
Look dumbass. Rutgers University is the most trusted source of snow data, and winter is not spring. Are you as stupid as you pretend to be?
Do you think that I control Rutgers University Snow Lab?
Steve,
You mean this Rutgers Snow lab?
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=0&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=2
Tells a very different, and more complete, story doesn’t it Steve?
The northern hemisphere has seen a massive increase in winter snowfall over the last twenty years, and you are a complete waste of time. The graph you linked shows a drop in the 1980s, and an increase ever since. How stupid are you?
Steve,
Massive? The trend line you added to the winter graph shows an increase in area the size of California spread out over the entire hemisphere. The graph I showed you, from the very same source, indicated a far bigger overall loss of snow for the entire calendar year.
Maybe your predicted ice age will only happen in winters.
I didn’t predict anything. I pointed out a possibility, and you are too stupid to see that there are several metres of snow covering most of Canada at the end of March.
“Is This How An Ice Age Begins?”
“Ice ages happen cyclically. We are about due for the next one.”
“I think my description is exactly how an ice age begins.”
“NH winter temperatures and snowfall have shown a marked trend over the last decade”
All these quotes from you were just your idea of shooting the breeze? No agenda — all just hypothetical BS?
And then you wave it all away with this “I didn’t predict anything. I pointed out a possibility”
Funny, isn’t pointing out possibilities exactly what Hansen does?
Obviously an ice age begins when winter snow exceeds summer melt. Are you stupid?
No Steve,
An ice age begins when the ANNUAL snow exceeds the annual melt.
http://notrickszone.com/2013/03/22/berlin-freezes-in-100-year-winter-record-snow-blankets-germany-bitter-cold-grips-europe/
Still cold in Europe…
Give them a red book of quotations from Communist Part Chairman Schellnhuber to read. That ought to make them feel better.
Yes, that’s a possible sign. Unfortunately, we will know it for sure when we are deep in it.
Snow is not the only sign.
Ireland had in 2010/2011 the coldest winter in 130 years. We were lucky with the last two winter, but when I look at the heating bill then not.
The potato harvest last year here in Ireland was about 40% less then the year before. Mainly because of a cold and wet year. The soil temperature was quite low and it was quite noticeable, as the grass grew less. My lawn mower was not busy.
Not sure why the image shows snow in the Chicago area. Everything except for snow piles melted about a week ago. Open fields are brown.
I really hope this isn’t the start of a new ice age. I just bought a house at 65°01?N.
We’ve got an offer on a second home at 32 N.
Ready for Chill-Ma-Geddon!!
Banish the snow shovel, fire up the Margarita blender!
Another ice-age coming for Canada? We’re not worried, gives us more frozen ponds to play hockey on!!
I’m in Central Alberta and frankly, I’ve been praying for global warming for the last 20+ years… It’s not working, winters here are just as crappy as always. Just got a good 8 inches of snow last week… Happy spring everyone:(
An Ice Age Begins or global warming continues either way it is global climate change and it happens every day! Get a grip people, it is a game of smoke and mirrors, divide and conquer. While we argue about the weather the international bankers are driving the worlds economy into the ground. Japanese radiation is circumnavigating the entire northern hemisphere, the gulf of Mexico is a poison soup of crude oil and Corexit and numerous other global disasters all financed by the same international bankers. So do we argue over the weather or band together to stop the madness?
For how many years does winter snow have to exceed summer melt before we can say an ice age has begun?
It all depends on your definition of “ice age”. By one definition, the earth has been in an ice age for several million years and is still in one now, with our present balmy climate merely a short interglacial between the last and next glacials. By another definition, an ice age would equal a glacial period, with a return of ice caps to North America, Europe and other places and average temperatures 8 to 10 degrees C lower than at present. For how long would winter snow have to exceed summer melt before that situation was reached?
Get a grip is right!
I think that AGW is simply a smoke screen-You know the sort of thing that politicians start talking about to take the press and public opinion off their backs?
The thing they are trying to take our minds off is the communist infiltration via the United Nations and the Agenda 21 protocol which most countries signed. It would to be fair to say that no one actually read it before signing or the signed something else instead)
Why do I say communist? Well simply there is no other word for it. I have two posts here, This might only be New Zealand but this this infiltration is world wide. Make sure you read the exam exemplar at http://www.thedemiseofchristchurch.com. Also check out how our government is using a terrible earthquake as an excuse to build an agenda 21 complying city by taking the neccesary land off its legal and rightful owners and giving themselves a free hand. It will be the worlds first eco city. http://thedemiseofchristchurch.com/2012/11/29/hello-world/ Whoop de doo. Guess who is paying for this monument?
Cheers
Roger
who cares if our planet is warming or cooling? I don’t! Us humans can adapt to pretty much anything thats thrown at us. what is the worst that can happen… billions of people die? if people die then people die, but at least itl decrease the population which is what our planet needs anyway. If it aint a war or an ice age, its clear that this planet needs a good kick up the arse so it can replenish itself. Bring on ww3 and bring on an ice age…. Im all for it cause i dont give a shit!
who cares if our planet is warming or cooling? I don’t! Us humans can adapt to pretty much anything thats thrown at us. what is the worst that can happen… billions of people die? if people die then people die, but at least itl decrease the population which is what our planet needs anyway. If it aint a war or an ice age, its clear that this planet needs a good kick up the a*s so it can replenish itself. Bring on ww3 and bring on an ice age…. Im all for it cause i dont give a sh*t!
Well the weather has warmed up now in Manchester but I think we are heading into an ice age in 2014