Updating Katherine Hayhoe’s Drought Forecast

Six weeks ago, this article appeared

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APRIL 22, 2015

Climate change is making the Texas panhandle, birthplace of the state’s iconic Longhorn, too hot and dry to raise beef. What happens to the range when the water runs out?

Soon, environmental activists and reporters began to ask whether “drought”—a temporary weather pattern—was really the right term for what was happening in the state, or whether “desertification” was more appropriate. “We’re on our fourth year of drought,” Katharine Hayhoe, director of the climate science center at Texas Tech University in Lubbock, told the industry magazine Meatingplace. “In order to replenish depleted reservoirs and soil moisture, we don’t need just a normal year or just a single rainfall. We need an unusually wet year to get back to normal conditions.” But the early months of 2015 have seen less than 1.4 inches of total precipitation—not even a third of what is considered normal rainfall, much less enough to replenish surface water and groundwater resources.

What Climate Change Is Doing to the Texas Cattle Ranch | The New Republic

By the end of May, all of Texas was unusually wet. The wettest state in the country.

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Texas Climate Is Not Changing

There has been no change in Texas January-May rainfall over the past century.

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The percent of days receiving more than 5 cm rainfall hasn’t changed

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 There has been a slight, but meaningless increase in heaviest rainfall events. Most of the 20+ cm rainfall events occurred before 1960

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Texas temperatures aren’t changing. They are about the same as they were in the 19th century

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The Texas climate is not changing. All of the delusions of Katherine Hayhoe and Andrew Dessler are based on what they want to see, not on what is actually happening.

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My NOAA Climate Forecast

I forecast that NOAA will lie about May 2015, and claim it was the warmest on record – even though it wasn’t even close.

May1998vs2015RSS

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Children Just Won’t Know What A Competent Or Honest Scientist Is

This is what Scotland looked like yesterday

ScreenHunter_2191 Jun. 03 09.27http://www.snoweye.com/grabs/0071/95.jpg

Last summer, the BBC reported the early stages of glacier formation in Scotland

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Glacier-like hazards found on Ben Nevis – BBC News

Six years ago, the Met Office warned that Scottish skiing is doomed

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Skiing is ‘doomed’ … so enjoy it while it lasts – The Scotsman

Fifteen years ago, CRU warned that children won’t know what snow is

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According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past – Environment – The Independent

Climate experts understand nothing about the climate. They simply look for any isolated evidence or short term trends which supports their ongoing funding.

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Climate BS Takes Only Milli-Seconds To Be Detected

ScreenHunter_2189 Jun. 03 07.43The warming from carbon dioxide released by burning a lump of coal exceeds the heat generated by the combustion in just 34 days.

It takes 45 days for oil combustion and 59 days for natural gas to achieve comparable warming to that generated by burning the respective fuel.

This shows that global warming does not take years and decades for its effects to be felt, shows a study by climate scientists at the Carnegie Institution for Science.

Global warming: Greenhouse gas warming takes only weeks to be felt

Only problem is, the atmosphere is not warming up.

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Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.

– Richard P. Feynman

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Senator Wants To Criminalize Dissent From The CO2-Centricism Orthodoxy

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The fossil-fuel industry’s campaign to mislead the American people – The Washington Post

There is no question that there is racketeering going on here. The government is stealing $29 billion per year of our money to finance the biggest scientific fraud in history.

This is what Rhode Island looked like 200 years ago, before big-tobacco wrecked the climate

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Texas Is Vulnerable To Clueless Academics

Cross posted from my new blog : Texas Is Vulnerable To Clueless Academics | Real Science

Four years ago, Andrew Dessler of Texas A&M announced that Texas would be hot and dry for the rest of the century

ScreenHunter_2169 Jun. 02 09.19Texas is vulnerable to warming climate – Houston Chronicle

That forecast turned out to be a complete disaster.

YearPNormSRCCYearTDeptSRCC

Temperatures in Texas have fallen over the past century, and have plummeted since Dessler made his forecast.

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It is clear that climate experts like Dessler and Hayhoe have little understanding of what actually drives the climate, yet the press continues to quote these same people over and over again – no matter how many times they are wrong.

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Only Thing Melting Down In Greenland Is The Credibility Of Government Scientists

Cross-posted from my new blog : Only Thing Melting Down In Greenland Is The Credibility Of Government Scientists | Real Science

Government scientists say that Greenland is melting down.

Greenland has gained half a trillion tons of snow since September. All of this has to return to the sea/atmosphere in order to maintain equilibrium of the ice sheet.

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Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Budget: DMI

The melt season is over a month late getting started.

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The coastal regions are still buried in snow. This is the capital of Greenland today.

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Temperatures on the ice sheet are -20C

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Temperatures are forecast to remain below freezing on the ice sheet for the next two weeks.

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Greenland is not melting down. But it wasn’t always like this. Seventy-five years ago, glaciers were disappearing there very quickly.

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06 May 1940 – Greenland’s Climate Becoming Milder

NASA says that temperatures are much warmer now that Greenland is not melting

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One might conclude that government climate science and the official temperature record are a complete farce, and they would be correct.

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Heavy Precipitation Events Are Not Increasing In Texas

Cross posted from my new blog : Heavy Precipitation Events Are Not Increasing In Texas | Real Science

The usual crew of climate clowns are talking nonsense about Texas weather again.

ScreenHunter_2156 Jun. 01 14.17As a scientist, I think it is essential to connect the dots between climate change and the increasing risk it poses to our families and communities,” said Katharine Hayhoe, an atmospheric scientist at Texas Tech University. “Keeping our mouths shut on what the data is telling us, even if it’s in fear of vicious reprisals, is like a physician not telling a patient they have a dangerous condition just because they’re afraid of the patient’s reaction.”

What the data is telling us, Hayhoe said, is that climate change is altering the risk of many weather extremes, flooding chief among them.

As a scientist, Andrew Dessler — a professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University — agreed with Hayhoe’s analysis of climate change’s role in the Texas flooding. While he noted that it will take about a year to conclusively determine if climate change worsened this event in particular, he said he “wouldn’t be surprised” if it did. “These are the kinds of changes we expect to see in a warming climate,” he said.

‘It’s Shameful’: Scientists Slam Ted Cruz For Dodging Climate Question After Texas Floods | ThinkProgress

Four years ago, Dessler said Texas would be “hot and dry for the rest of the century.” Last month Hayhoe was warning of ongoing drought. These people have no idea what they are talking about. The heaviest rainfall events are not increasing in Texas

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Texas temperature is not increasing.

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When it is dry, Hayhoe and Dessler blame it on “climate change” When it is wet, they blame it on “climate change”  They suffer an affliction which was identified as early as 1871.

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US Hurricane Frequency Plummeting

Cross posted from my new blog : US Hurricane Frequency Plummeting | Real Science

In the 19th century, the US averaged about two hurricanes per year. Now we average 1.5 per year

ScreenHunter_2141 Jun. 01 06.43 HURDAT Re-analysis 

The US is also experiencing the longest period on record without a major (category 3-5) hurricane strike. The last one was Wilma in 2005, which many experts declared as “the new normal”

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Major hurricanes in the US peaked in 1950

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I had dinner last night with one of the few people who actually understands hurricanes and climate – Dr. Bill Gray from CSU.  Look for the CSU 2015 hurricane forecast to be released today.

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