Real Climate Science

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A loving Islamic father stoned his daughter to death.

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Carl Mears

It has been suggested that the lack of a tropospheric hotspot (if there is such a lack) is mostly due to errors in the surface temperature datasets, which are (in this story line) suspected of being biased in the direction of too much warming. This seems unlikely. Clearly, the above spread in results for different upper air datasets reveals considerable structural uncertainty (Thorne et al, 2005) for the upper air data, and the error bar on the RSS trend values is much larger than the error bar for the HadCRUT4 value. Also, the various surface datasets are much more similar to each other. To show this, I redo the analysis in Figure 1 using a different surface dataset constructed by NOAA (GHCN-ERSST). The final trend ratios are almost identical to those found using HADCRUT4, and the conclusions reached are unchanged.

The (missing) tropical hot spot « Climate Dialogue

Carl is a smart guy, but he let his preconceived notions turn logic on its ear.

The surface data sets are crap, and they change constantly. The past doesn’t look anything like it did 40 years ago. And the current data sets all use the same tortured data – so of course they look the same.

Garbage in – garbage out.

The Guardian deletes all comments from skeptics, because their fraud can’t stand up to any scrutiny.

How badly is their paper messed up? Today they censored a comment from an IPCC lead author.

21 October 2014 6:20pm

Our friends claim that the last six months was the warmest ever, despite record Antarctic sea ice, record Great Lakes ice, 84% growth in Arctic sea ice volume over 2012, near record September snow extent in the Northern Hemisphere, a record cold summer north of 80N, glaciers forming in Scotland, and their own satellites showing that the last six months have been nowhere near the warmest.

Either the freezing point of water has changed, or NASA/NOAA NCDC are lying through their teeth.

Someone suggested that the divergence between measured US temperatures and NCDC published US temperatures is due to Time Of Observation Bias.

I tested that out by comparing only versus stations which took morning or night readings on July 15, 1936. These stations should be biased cold in the 1930s, and produce more warming than the full set of stations. It doesn’t make much difference. The frequency of 90 degree days is still very low in 2014.

There is still a hockey stick of divergence between the measured and reported US temperatures.

Over the last 20 years, the TOBS adjustment should be a downwards adjustment. The 1936 afternoon stations are warming faster than the 1936 morning stations. USHCN TOBS adjustments do the exact opposite and make the problem worse.

TOBS does not account for the discrepancy between measured and reported US temperatures. Here is the list of morning/night stations

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Green shows growth in the last seven days