Mark C. Serreze says:
Looking back at earlier posts, a few things caught my eye which I might be able to clarify:
1) The north pole issue: Back in June, there was some coverage about the possibility of the North Pole being ice free by the end of this summer. This was based on recognition that the area around the north pole was covered by firstyear ice that tends to be rather thin. Thin ice is the most vulnerable to melting our in summer. I gave it a 50/50 chance. Looks like I’ll lose my own bet and Santa Claus will be safe for another year. There was indeed some coverage a some years back of an open north pole (and I was interviewed). This opening, however, was pretty clearly causes by unusual winds breaking up this ice, and not from melting out.
The reason he made that prediction is because the ice was very thin that summer. No one made any predictions like that this year, because the ice is much thicker. That is why I think PIOMAS is completely FOS. They claim that the ice is half as thick as 2008.
