Real Climate Science

Guest Post By Joe Bastardi

Sound Meteorological reasons for US temperature fluctuations as the globe cools overall

The last year the US has been warm and it can be directly traced to the changes taking place in the Pacific as the cooling PDO deepens,  resulting in a fall in global temps, but rapid responses up and down across the US based on the water in the tropical Pacific.   The theory is simple. The cooling of the Pacific tropical waters overall forces a global reaction that leads to the start of the cool down, that will be shown In a chart below, but the US temp response is inverse to the temps in the central Pacific relative to the temps In the eastern Pacific . The physical reaction will be discussed below, and it will be made clear as to why simply looking at what is going on over 10% of the globe is pure agenda driven drivel that the AGW crowd , pushed by many in government and science in this country, can be revealed as  ignorance to basic sound  logic, common sense, and science

The key is that no matter what the water temp,  it has to be warmer in the central Pacific than eastern Pacific.  If you have a warm event going on  ( the el nino) then the core of the warmth must  be in the in the central Pacific. If a cold event ( la nina) then  the only way the US is cold is if the water is colder  near South America. If the core of the cold is back  west, then it creates a pressure and temperature pattern across the globe that will force it to be warm in the  US . The same type of thing happened in the mild la nina winters of the  MID  1970s, before the reversal  in the late 70s, something I believe could happen this winter!

in a cold regime, lets look mid  09  to  mid  10 its warmer in the center

so you understand the physical reasons,  it has to do with the overall global temp and the results of warming and cooling of this area of immense energy on the global pattern.  Warm the water in the central pac and you create   lower than normal pressures in this area and there has to be compensating rises in pressure over N  America. This is greatest in the winter season. Why? because in the tropical pacific  seasonal temp variaions are much less than in the temperate regions,  so  a slight pressure fall here because of warming will demand a bigger response  to the positive where its cold, again remember the lesson of the cold morning vs the hot afternoon and how easy it is to get temps to bounce up and down when its very cold ( takes very little energy change)  as opposed to when its  hot. The same change in energy  for 1 degree at  80  will produce  more than a  15 degree change around 0.

Now look at the Pacific while the US has been warm over the last year

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docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/035/mwr-035-01-0007b.pdf

Instead of repressing the cheats and hoaxes, people like Borenstein and Goldenberg have chosen to aggressively enable cheating by scientists who are promoting their own self-interests.

Where is “Vox Dei?” What happened to the Washington Post and New York Times? Where are Woodward and Bernstein now?

I’ve seen several news stories describing the fire here as a “mega-fire caused by global warming.”

It is sad that people lost their homes (what do you expect if you build a house in the middle of a forest in a place that averages only 14 inches of rain a year) – but the fire is not very big compared to the low CO2 fire of 1898.

The 2012 fire is the red dot west of Fort Collins. The 1898 fire is the blue rectangle. The 1898 fire was hundreds of times larger. People who claim that fires are getting more severe, have no idea what they are talking about.

UPDATED: High Park Fire maps and imagery | The Coloradoan | coloradoan.com

FOREST FIRES IN COLORADO. – People in Northwest Part of the State Said to be Fleeing for Their Lives — Loss Will Be Enormous. – View Article – NYTimes.com

This is the common perception of the meaning of Hansen’s 1988 scenarios.

–A: Increase of CO2 emissions of 1.5% per year
–B: fixed increase CO2 emissions after the year 2000
–C: No increase in CO2 emissions after the year 2000

Norwegian Climate Professor: Hansen’s Projection Off By 150%…Regrettable That Politicians Still View It As Reliable

But that isn’t accurate. What Hansen actually wrote was

pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1988/1988_Hansen_etal.pdf

• Scenario A means steadily increasing annual emissions.
• Scenario B doesn’t make any sense, but possibly means constant annual emissions at a level lower than 1988.
• Scenario C means essentially zero emissions after the year 2000 i.e. “net climate forcing ceases to increase after the year 2000.”

So where are we according to GISS? Below the zero emissions scenario C.

Temperatures are lower than Hansen forecast they would be if humans disappeared off the planet twelve years ago.

Why our friends like to choose 1980 as the start date for their western drought/fire stories

Daily News – Google News Archive Search

I was living in Scottsdale and working in Tempe at the time. Only one bridge across the Salt River didn’t wash out. Commuting was a several hour proposition.

Hansen said the exact opposite in 1999

Empirical evidence does not lend much support to the notion that climate is headed precipitately toward more extreme heat and drought. The drought of 1999 covered a smaller area than the 1988 drought, when the Mississippi almost dried up. And 1988 was a temporary inconvenience as compared with repeated droughts during the 1930s “Dust Bowl” that caused an exodus from the prairies, as chronicled in Steinbeck’s Grapes of Wrath. NASA GISS: Science Briefs: Whither U.S. Climate?

There is no indication that droughts are getting worse. In 1934, 80% of the US was simultaneously experiencing drought. 190001-201202.gif (650×534)

Over the past decade, extreme drought has plummeted in the US.

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The Romm strategy is to cherry pick a short term weather event, get his readers hysterical, and then never follow up later. If he did follow up, it would become clear that he is a propagandist rather than a scientist.

Last summer, Romm told us that the only way we could end the exceptional drought was to lower CO2 emissions.

Since he wrote that article, exceptional drought has dropped to one of the lowest levels in US history. It is also important to note that the category “exceptional drought” is a recent addition to the terminology. Had it been applied in the past, the 1930s and 1950s would have been much higher than 2011. Romm was intentionally misleading his readers at the time he wrote that.

Drought Monitor Statistics

Over most of the past decade, exceptional drought has declined – except for the one date which Romm chose to cherry pick.

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More evidence of blatant deceit from the world’s largest ponzi scheme.

A University of Arizona report from 2006 found that large forest fires occurred more frequently in the Western United States since the mid-1980s as spring temperatures increased, snow melted earlier and summers got hotter, and that the fire season has grown. According to University of Colorado, Berkeley fire ecologist Max Moritz, the Colorado fire features “a lot of the characteristics we would expect under climate change,” including plentiful, dry fuel as a result of low precipitation.

More Big Wildfires May Be Future Norm for US | Wired Science | Wired.com

The 1980s was the wettest decade on record in the southwest. I remember skiing in six foot deep snow at the Los Alamos ski hill – in October. All the bridges in Phoenix washed out, except for one.

So why didn’t they start their study during the 1970s – the normal cherry pick start date? Simple – because the 1970s was very dry and plagued with disastrous fires.

The Morning Record and Journal – Google News Archive Search

h/t to Andy DC

01 Feb 1939 – AMERICA’S FOREST FIRE TOLL

2007 : Dr Stirling says that the phenomenon of a female giving birth to triplets is now part of history with usually only single cubs recorded. Soon, he says, the species may be extinct.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/

2010 : sightings from guides this summer included surprisingly “frequent sightings of polar bear mothers with triplets,” “In a recent blog post, Selden predicts “prodigious numbers of bears” this year based on unusually high summer sightings.”

http://eon.businesswire.com/