Real Climate Science

Report: Climate change worsens Western water woes

By John Flesher (Associated Press) – April 28, 2011

Climate change is likely to diminish already scarce water supplies in the Western United States, exacerbating problems for millions of water users in the West, according to a new government report.

A report released Monday by the Interior Department said annual flows in three prominent river basins — the Colorado, Rio Grande and San Joaquin — could decline by as much 8 percent to 14 percent over the next four decades. The three rivers provide water to eight states, from Wyoming to Texas and California, as well as to parts of Mexico.

The declining water supply comes as the West and Southwest, already among the fastest-growing parts of the country, continue to gain population.

Interior Secretary Ken Salazar called water the region’s “lifeblood” and said small changes in snowpack and rainfall levels could have a major effect on tens of millions of people.

The report will help officials understand the long-term effects of climate change on Western water supplies, Salazar said, and will be the foundation for efforts to develop strategies for sustainable water resource management.

The report notes that projected changes in temperature and precipitation are likely to alter the timing and quantity of stream flows in all Western river basins, with increased flooding possible in the winter due to early snowmelt and water shortages in the summer due to reductions in spring and summer runoffs. Changes in climate could affect water supplies to a range of users, from farms and cities to hydropower plants, fish, wildlife and recreation, the report said.

http://www.stopglobalwarming.org/

Despite the fact that they are releasing the most water they have in many years, Lake Powell is now gaining more than 12″ per day, with most of the snowpack still in place in the mountains.

http://lakepowell.water-data.com/

There are a dozen offshore oil platforms visible from Santa Barbara now.

This is what Santa Barbara looked like in 1969.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fTqm0b6E1c]

Fort Collins was hit by an intense hail storm on Wednesday night.

Don Day of DayWeather in Cheyenne, Wyo., said Wednesday night’s storms were so intense because of cool atmospheric conditions and an upslope effect, possibly producing up to 3 inches of rain in some places.

http://www.coloradoan.com/

This event could not have happened – because there simply isn’t enough moisture in the atmosphere when the air is cool.

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2011

We continue to foresee well above-average activity for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season.  We are predicting the same levels of activity that were forecast in early April due to the combination of expected neutral ENSO conditions and very favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the tropical Atlantic.  We continue to anticipate an above average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.
(as of 1 June 2011)

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2011/june2011/jun2011.pdf

It has now been 1000 days since any hurricane hit the US, the longest spell since before the Civil War.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png

Arctic ice area declined from 1988 to about 2006, and since then has been flat, corresponding to the shift in the PDO.

The amount of multi-year ice reported by NSIDC shows a similar pattern.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2011/040511.html

The death spiral seems to have hit a brick wall.

Loss of beaches worldwide is certainly not the worst of the impacts humans will face from unrestricted greenhouse gas emissions (see “JPL bombshell: Polar ice sheet mass loss is speeding up, on pace for 1 foot sea level rise by 2050“).  But it will be a poignant and costly loss nonetheless for future generations.  And don’t count on creating artificial beaches — they will be awfully hard to sustain when sea levels are rising 6 to 12 inches a decade!  CAP’s Kiley Kroh has more.

Meanwhile back in the real world – Europe’s Envisat satellite reports plummeting sea level over the last 18 months, with the current level being the lowest  in their eight years of data.

http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com

We are going to spend the next few days at the non-existent beaches of California.