Another RRTM experiment.
If we reduced CO2 back to the good old days of 350 ppm (1988) that would reduce downwelling longwave radiation in the tropics by a massive 0.03%.
By contrast, a 1% change in humidity (which happens every few minutes) has three times as much effect. The CO2 religion is a complete joke.
The loss of sea ice may also be driving Arctic air into the middle latitudes. Winter weather patterns are notoriously chaotic, and the GISS analysis finds seven of the last 10 European winters warmer than the average from 1951 to 1980. The unusual cold in the past two winters has caused scientists to begin to speculate about a potential connection to sea ice changes.
Next time you want a frozen margarita, remember to not put any ice in it.
We have had an amazing week of cold, hurricane force winds, heavy rain, branches breaking on the roof, thunderstorms and blizzards. I blame your SUV!
Looks like our morning match is going to get snowed out in Fort Collins.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.13.html
Ice extent will be above normal in a few days.
http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/T_moreFigs/
Dr. Jim’s 1988 projections weren’t looking so good, so he dropped an apple in the middle of his oranges. The red line is land only temperatures, but his projections were for global temperatures.
Let’s remove the inappropriate data and update it for 2011 so far.
Not looking too good, even with their frantic pink crayon.
As we approach the tenth anniversary of 9/11/2001, the usual whack jobs are out spouting the demolition theory.
Demolitions occur from the bottom up. First floor destroyed first, then the second floor, then the third floor ….. The top floor is the last to be destroyed.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRoVMvmmM4o]
The WTC did the exact opposite – it collapsed from the top down. Upper floors were destroyed first and the bottom floor was the last to be destroyed.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNrBi0Qm2BQ]
ABC news got this wrong real time and started a different culture of morons from the ones we usually discuss here.
Hansen’s 1988 projections
At Jim Hansen’s now famous congressional testimony given in the hot summer of 1988, he showed GISS model projections of continued global warming assuming further increases in human produced greenhouse gases. This was one of the earliest transient climate model experiments and so rightly gets a fair bit of attention when the reliability of model projections are discussed. There have however been an awful lot of mis-statements over the years – some based on pure dishonesty, some based on simple confusion. Hansen himself (and, for full disclosure, my boss), revisited those simulations in a paper last year, where he showed a rather impressive match between the recently observed data and the model projections. But how impressive is this really? and what can be concluded from the subsequent years of observations?
The bottom line? Scenario B is pretty close and certainly well within the error estimates of the real world changes. And if you factor in the 5 to 10% overestimate of the forcings in a simple way, Scenario B would be right in the middle of the observed trends. It is certainly close enough to provide confidence that the model is capable of matching the global mean temperature rise!
Scientists say that we can trace an estimated one-third of global greenhouse gases to our food system. Livestock, including meat and dairy production, is thought to account for 18 percent of the world’s total emissions. The United States has one of the highest rates of meat consumption in the world, especially of beef, the worst offender when it comes to emitting the greenhouse gas methane.
