Real Climate Science

http://www.europol.europa.eu/index.asp?page=news&news=pr101228.htm

h/t to Marc Morano and Pierre Gosselin

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

I am aware of some German work that suggests the cold outbreak pattern might somehow be stimulated by reduced Arctic Sea Ice. I have not seen the study but count me skeptical.

The cold and snow in Europe was “balanced” by very warm temperatures in Greenland: classical negative NAO [ North Atlantic Oscillation]: perhaps.

The was a large so-called blocking high in North Atlantic that led to the polar outbreaks into Europe and so that is where the cold air went, making it warmer in behind. Now that is more a weather or meteorological description, not a statement of cause.

Coincidentally pressures have been much above normal in the far North Pacific, and that is typical with La Nina. The pressures were high enough to make the main branch of westerlies active to the south and led to the pineapple express and heavy rains in California. It is quite a strong La Nina, and that is a forcing of the atmosphere by the anomalous atmospheric heating patterns linked to SSTs [sea surface temperatures].

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/

Skiing is ‘doomed’ … so enjoy it while it lasts

Alex Hill, the chief government adviser with the Met Office, told The Scotsman there was no future for skiing in Scotland because climate change would see winters become too warm for regular snowfall.

Environmental groups last night agreed with this claim. However, although members of the ski industry agreed that climate change was having an impact, they said the industry could survive.

But Mr Hill said: “Put it this way: I won’t be investing in the skiing industry.

http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Skiing—is-.4962678.jp

http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/news/story.aspx?storyID=7876

Keith Fenwick, weather forecaster, Met Office

Saturday 2 September 2006

The scientific consensus is that humans are contributing to the greenhouse effect, leading to global warming. When you speak to elderly people they often comment that the seasons are different to when they were younger, particularly when it comes to snow. One of the predictions over the coming decade is that snow will become less frequent in the British Isles; we are expecting milder winters.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/

h/t to http://hauntingthelibrary.wordpress.com/ and Marc Morano

http://www.time.com

Going Green
The Northeast Blizzard: One More Sign of Global Warming

The loss of Arctic sea ice helps accelerate the warming of the atmosphere in the far north, thanks to what’s known as the albedo effect. White ice reflects sunlight into space, cooling the air, but when ice melts and is replaced with dark ocean water, the effect is reversed and more of the sun’s heat is absorbed.

The Arctic is completely covered with ice and snow, and it doesn’t get any sunlight this time of year.

As the Arctic air warms, it raises the altitude of discrete areas of high pressure, which can then alter wind patterns. This, in turn, can weaken the jet stream, allowing more cold air to seep out of the Arctic and into Europe and the eastern U.S.

The Arctic Oscillation has been negative the past two winters, which causes well defined regions of relative warm and cold. There is nothing new going on here.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/

As the authors of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s recent “Arctic Report Card” put it, “There is evidence that the effect of higher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere in fall is contributing to changes in the atmospheric circulation in both the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes. Winter 2009-2010 showed a new connectivity between mid-latitude extreme cold and snowy weather events and changes in the wind patterns of the Arctic; the so-called Warm Arctic–Cold Continents pattern.”

In other words, they had to make up some technical sounding jargon to hide the fact that the climate models were wrong.

h/t to Marc Morano

Monday, December 27, 2010

Of all the projected impacts of climate change, the scariest one in a world is the effect warming could have on our ability to feed ourselves.

global warming is likely to alter the climate at a rate faster than anything we’ve experienced in recorded history

http://ecocentric.blogs.time.com/

Monday, Jun. 24, 1974

Whatever the cause of the cooling trend, its effects could be extremely serious, if not catastrophic.

University of Toronto Climatologist Kenneth Hare, a former president of the Royal Meteorological Society, believes that the continuing drought and the recent failure of the Russian harvest gave the world a grim premonition of what might happen. Warns Hare: “I don’t believe that the world’s present population is sustainable if there are more than three years like 1972 in a row.”

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,944914-2,00.html

a new study shows that over the last century and a half, North American wheat crops spread into regions with even wider temperature and precipitation differences than will arise over the next century. This analysis suggests it will be possible to adapt to new wheat-growing conditions.

“As global change takes place, adaptation will help solve some of the problems that are created. Scientists and farmers are not going to roll over and not do anything,” said economist Alan Olmstead of the University of California, Davis, who carried out the analysis with economist Paul Rhode of the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. “When we look at how great the adaptations were in the past, it gives us a sense of what might be achieved in the future.”

The pair used a county-by-country record of wheat production in North America from 1839 to 2007 to document how wheat-growing conditions changed over time. They found that in 2007 the median annual temperature norm for areas of wheat production was 3.7 degrees Celsius (6.6 degrees Fahrenheit) colder than in 1839, and that average precipitation was halved.

The geographic center of wheat production in 1839 was in eastern Ohio. In 2007, it was in west-central South Dakota, the authors said in their paper, published today in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Farmers grew 26 times more wheat in the United States in 2009 than in 1939, and 270 times more in Canada.

“Wheat moved much farther west. It moved farther north and it moved into much harsher climates — drier and colder,” Rhode said.

http://news.discovery.com/earth/wheat-climate-change-agriculture-101227.html

We are told by climate scientists that 2010 is in a dead heat or slightly hotter than 1998 and 2005.

It logically follows that either there must have been a lot of cold and snow in 1998 and 2005 (like this year) – or another possibility is that climate scientists are just completely FOS.

h/t to Bdaman

Imagine that. The US Congress actually taking responsibility for their oversight role.