2011 Ice Continues To Track 2006

10 Responses to 2011 Ice Continues To Track 2006

1. Grumpy Grampy ;) says:

   August 1, 2011 at 1:48 pm

   It has to do with wind patterns and ocean currents that compact of spread the ice.
   The NSIDC should be abolished as a worthless government agency.

   Reply
2. Dave N says:

   August 1, 2011 at 1:51 pm

   Has anyone ever generated graphs of extent for mid-May and mid-November, over time?

   Reply
3. Pascvaks says:

   August 1, 2011 at 1:58 pm

   I recently received my latest ‘self-addressed’ envelope from the Congressional Dining Room Deputy Under-Chef’s Assistant Secretary for ReCycling. I immediately retrieved the ‘Ben & Jerry’s” pint sized ice cream lids with the Red Star Coupons and realizing I now had enough of them sent off for the free IPCC “AGW Calibrated Ouiji Board of Climate Forecasting For Children and Adults”. It arrived this morning, no delivery on Saturdays due to Global Warming and something new called ‘lack of money’. Anyway, long story short, just finished getting my first reading on Polar Ice. I regret to inform you that the diagram you are showing is not the latest, it is a concocted version of the True Polar Ice Track that is shown to Members of Congress of the Wrong Persuasion. My New Quiji says there is no ice at the North Pole and that there is a tidalwave coming that will flood NYC, London, Tokyo, and Amsterdam in a fortnight. I didn’t have time to ask Ouiji why it was going to take so long, thought it best to let you know as soon as possible. Cheers!

   PS: Can’t stand “Ben & Jerry’s”, much prefer Hagen-Dasz myself.

   Reply
4. Andy WeissDC says:

   August 1, 2011 at 3:09 pm

   Steve knows Arctic sea ice. A lot of alarmists with egg on their face.

   Reply
   • AndyW says:

     August 1, 2011 at 4:35 pm

     I don’t know who has their tongue in cheek more now, you or Steve.

     http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ice_ext_n.png

     it’s tracking 2006 like I am tracking a polar a bear in my garden….

     I’m not.

     Reply
5. gator69 says:

   August 1, 2011 at 4:58 pm

   Still bored. Ice melts. We still have more ice than the average of the past 9000 years. Polar bears did not spring into existence in 1979. Summer hot, winter cold, ice ages, interglacials, yada yada yada…

   I predict the Sun will set tonight and never rise again. What? You disagree? And you cite the historical record… but, but, but the models…

   Reply
   • AndyW says:

     August 1, 2011 at 5:54 pm

     Ah but it is not the amount but the rate of change.

     Show me where in the last 9000 years it has changed more quickly than in the present

     Andy

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     • stevengoddard says:

       August 1, 2011 at 5:58 pm

       1922 http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/050/mwr-050-11-0589a.pdf

       Reply
     • gator69 says:

       August 1, 2011 at 10:21 pm

       http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c0147e322cab8970b-pi

       Reply
6. Scott says:

   August 2, 2011 at 2:44 am

   R^2 values for daily extent for June-July are:
   2002 = 0.9790
   2003 = 0.9901
   2004 = 0.9846
   2005 = 0.9853
   2006 = 0.9932
   2007 = 0.9907
   2008 = 0.9899
   2009 = 0.9836
   2010 = 0.9788

   So by that metric, 2011 does track 2006 the best. The linear fit would also predict a minimum extent of 4862572 km^2 using 2006, putting us slightly above 2010. However, these tracking correlations don’t mean much. The second-best fit, 2007, would have us ending at 4437324 km^2. The third-best, 2003, yields 4171104 km^2. The average for all of the years would be a sad 4024182 km^2. Thus, I’d argue that the tracking doesn’t mean much.

   Now just 16 more min to wait to see if the ice can pull 15 days in a row of below-avg extent loss…

   -Scott

   Reply