Look for NSIDC and NASA to remain silent, as Arctic sea ice extent rapidly approaches the highest level in a decade.
Disrupting the Borg is expensive and time consuming!
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The truckers are finding it difficult to get supplies to Prudhoe Bay due to large amounts of ice on the Dalton Highway. I read about this the other day (15 April), I can’t find anything more recent…
Some Highlights:
The shallow, braided Sagavanirktok River flows alongside the highway that Krueger flags for the road’s final miles. But over the past few weeks, ice has uncharacteristically formed along its bottom and pushed the river’s flow up from the channel and onto the road. The overflow runs several feet thick in some places, and in other spots, it immediately froze into a thick mass of ice.
The sudden flooding has made one of the state’s most critical highways virtually impassable.
You’re standing on a road that is 3 feet of ice,” Meadow Bailey, public relations officer for the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities, says. “It almost looks like you’re on a glacier — everything is very blue, it’s white and blues for as far as you can see.” Trucks that continued to drive the route as conditions worsened sloshed through several feet of water and at times drove alongside a rushing river that ran higher than the road itself.
Truckers who regularly drive the haul road are no strangers to inclement weather — their struggles against frigid temperatures and freak blizzards have been chronicled in the History Channel series “Ice Road Truckers” — but Thompson says a closure of this length is extremely rare.
“There will be times when there’s a snowstorm, so you have to wait out the snowstorm for maybe a few hours, but in this case, it’s a once-in-a lifetime event,” he says.
Though the problem has not been fully resolved, opinions about whether the overflow will continue to impede normal operations are mixed. At Everts Air, Ragar is bracing for the long haul. “This particular road closing on the Dalton has not been experienced in anybody’s memory — never,” he says. “There seems to be a belief that this is going to go on for a while.”
http://www.ibtimes.com/trucking-along-alaskas-ice-road-northern-oilfields-freezes-halt-1883163#discussion
No, no we can rely on NSIDC & NASA to bend and deviate from the truth as always ; they are probably reworking the “real” Data this very instant – to something more CAGW compliant…
There is no way the IPCC can go to Paris , with more Arctic Ice on record !
No matter the Arctic Ice summer minimum, they’ll have the talking points to feed the media. We know their game. If extent is less, but concentration and thickness has grown, they’ll cherrypick the extent and cherrybomb concentration and thickness – through the act of omission – just like they did a month ago with the press release about extent, and omitted mention of phenomenal growth in concentration.
When “climate change” is your game you’re selling, Mother Nature provides endless data from which to cherrypick. So, if extent is more, they’ll ignore that and cherrypick another meaningless statistic. And as you alluded, we know that if the cherrypicking of real data don’t work, then reworking data into submission is an option (an all-too-often hand being overplayed these days, which I believe will eventually lead to their downfall).
If the fraudulent so-called “climate scientists” are ever brought to trial and conviction, I propose a fitting punishment. They should be placed on agricultural work gangs picking fruit in a cherry orchard.
I can dream, can’t I?
Little would give me more pleasure than to see Gavin Schmidt picking cherries in a cherry orchard. (The orchards should all to be in urban heat islands.) 😉
You folks are much kinder than I.
I’d sentence them to a subsistence farm penal colony No electricity or fossil fuels allowed. Upper Peninsula of Michigan or northern Maine might be good locations for it
Antarctica!
Antarctica is likely to be the world’s only habitable continent by the end of this century if global warming remains unchecked, the Government’s chief scientist, Professor Sir David King, said last week.
http://www.rense.com/general52/ahbi.htm
Sorry Dis, I have picked cherries in Young in NSW
(only for a week or so, just to see what it was like)
It wasn’t particularly irksome,
maybe because of the 2 or 3 young ladies on the picking squad 😉
Still not as slow as Omama.
For anyone who follow ocean trends, the changes in sea ice happening in the north Atlantic area is to be expected as the AMO is showing signs of returning to its cold phase.
In general, a large portion of the entire warming campaign, is picking a part of natural oscillations which are in a warming upswing and ignoring regions where temperatures are in a temperature downswing.
Reblogged this on Sage Vals and commented:
But we won’t see any press releases about this will we…
Stephen Stephen Stephen, toujours aussi con, aucun surprise…
The “slow decline” you crow about, is from the lowest annual maximum winter extent *ever* recorded.
Unlike you, however, NASA did not trade dishonestly on the annual maximum being unprecedentedly low. Here’s what they said: “A record low sea ice maximum extent does not necessarily lead to a record low summertime minimum extent.
“The winter maximum gives you a head start, but the minimum is so much more dependent on what happens in the summer that it seems to wash out anything that happens in the winter,” said Walt Meier, a sea ice scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.
…. “Scientifically, the yearly maximum extent is not as interesting as the minimum. It is highly influenced by weather and we’re looking at the loss of thin, seasonal ice that is going to melt anyway in the summer and won’t become part of the permanent ice cover,” Meier said. “With the summertime minimum, when the extent decreases, it’s because we’re losing the thick ice component, and that is a better indicator of warming temperatures.”
It’s a shame I need to remind you that when you crowed about an annual maximum extent which was (shock, horror!) *above the mean* (yes, you did think that was sufficient excuse to strut about and preen), the subsequent summer ice that same year collapsed to the lowest extent ever recorded.
Which was an authentic occasion for genuine alarm, although, being a one-off, not to the same extent as the inexorable loss of ice trend, over the long term, from the sum total of the world’s glaciers, which is beyond alarming.
Ice melts. Water freezes. What part of this is shocking?
https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/screenhunter_2061-aug-18-06-58.gif?w=640
Don’t tell me you are an extremely Young Earther. 😆
Thin seasonal ice? The 5-year ice is surging.
Glaciers now melting in the Alps etc. are exposing remains of millennia-old forests and farms. From the good old days, when man had it easy; glacial retreat is a sign they may be coming back. How is that “alarming”? That’s a perverse reaction!
He yearns for the good ole days…
Between 1680 and 1730, the coldest cycle of the Little Ice Age, temperatures plummeted and the growing season in England was about five weeks shorter then than now. The winter of 1683/4 was so cold that the ground froze to a depth of more than a meter in parts of south west England and belts of ice appeared off the Channel coast of England and northern France. The ice lay up to 30 miles offshore along the Dutch coast and many harbours were so choked with ice that shipping halted throughout the North Sea.
Another exceptional winter was that of 1708/9. Deep snow fell in England and lasted for weeks while further East people walked from Denmark to Sweden on the ice as shipping was again halted in the North Sea. Hard frosts killed thousands of trees in France, where Provence lost most of its orange trees and vineyards were abandoned in northern France, not to be recultivated until the 20th Century. In 1716 the Thames froze so deep that a spring tide raised the ice fair on the river by 4 meters! The summer of 1725 in London was the coldest in the known temperature record and described as “ more like winter than summer”.
After a warm interlude after 1730, when eight winters were as mild as the 20th Century, the cold returned. The temperature of the early 1740’s was the lowest in the Central England Temperature record for the entire period from 1659. Even in France thousands died of the cold and when the thaw came “ great floods did prodigious mischief”.
Although temperatures started to gradually increase in the mid 19th Century, another cold snap in 1879 brought weather that rivaled the 1690’s. After a below freezing winter, England experienced a cold spring and one of the wettest and coldest summers on record. In some parts of East Anglia, the harvest was still being brought in after Christmas. The late 1870’s were equally cold in China and India , where up to 18 million died from famines caused by cold, drought and monsoon failure.
They, that is pretty perverted.
You remind me of the passenger on the Titanic welcoming the approaching ice because his drink needed freshening. But at least you’re ahead of the curve; most of the chorus line here still follow Stephen’s party line avidly, and are still in denial of warming altogether.
But to address your enthusiasm for a warmer world: it’s all about the rate and the (irreversible) amount of change, and also about infrastructure (seaports, cities, entire nations built on river deltas).
The last time the planetary system warmed this fast – correction, the present rate is an order of magnitude faster — but the last ultra-rapid warming, 56 million years ago, would result in massive sea level rise given the amount of relevant ice currently in Antarctica, and some pretty sobering changes in the ocean biosphere. The climate became much wetter – semi-permanent rain, permanent cloud cover …
The good news is that the high temperature eventually reached was maintained for a relatively short period before the natural systems which kicked in reduced the carbon content of the atmosphere – but a few hundred thousand years is still a rather long time in human terms.
The amount of carbon was roughly the same (thousands of gigatons) as humans can be expected to release into the atmosphere in the next few hundred years, but in that case it appears to have resulted from a ‘minor’ warming event (maybe 5 deg C) crossing a tipping point, possibly releasing methane, which contains carbon. This is still subject of strenuous debate, but if methane was the main culprit in powering the “tipping” process, the main probable source was sea-floor methane hydrate deposits which exist nowadays in vast amounts, and which are stable only at quite narrow combinations of pressure and temperature. When they warm even a few degrees, they release gaseous methane into the atmosphere. Methane, as a greenhouse gas, puts CO2 in the minor leagues.
Whether or not methane was a major contributor then, it is likely to be this time, because there are much larger amounts of it around now than there were then. Tha’s because the ocean started from a slightly warmer baseline back then.
Someone will be along shortly to tell you that the earth is not warming. The will conveniently neglect to point out that the atmospheric temperature is about the least useful measure of warming, and its indications are malleable enough to warm a dishonest heart.
Here’s what they won’t tell you: Well over nine-tenths of the excess energy we receive from the sun due to the greenhouse effect goes into the ocean, and much of the rest goes into melting and subliming of glacier and other year-round ice. The long term trend data from those two heatsinks are beyond alarming.
A peer-reviewed paper published in the Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences finds that Arctic sea ice extent at the end of the 20th century was more extensive than most of the past 9000 years. The paper also finds that Arctic sea ice extent was on a declining trend over the past 9000 years, but recovered beginning sometime over the past 1000 years and has been relatively stable and extensive since.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_nOY5jaKJXHM/TJrXW0PuvHI/AAAAAAAABT8/5yMHghFD8FA/s400/sea+ice+4.jpg
http://research.bpcrc.osu.edu/geo/publications/mckay_etal_CJES_08.pdf
“Well over nine-tenths of the excess energy we receive from the sun due to the greenhouse effect goes into the ocean”
Utter BS. LWR cannot penetrate the oceans.
In fact, your whole post is a load of propaganda nonsense.
Boy, you sure have you drunk the alarmist warm p*ss !!
No wonder you need your nappy changed !!
“sea-floor methane hydrate deposits which exist nowadays in vast amounts, and which are stable only at quite narrow combinations of pressure and temperature. When they warm even a few degrees,”
Wow.. more nappy-time stuff. how does you nanny cope !!
If the little ocean heat content graphs based on models and assumption are to be believed, they are the equivalent of about 0.001ºC warming..
makes your few degrees comment look pretty darn STUPID doesn’t it. !
Himalayan glaciers are recovering. (as are many other glacier systems)
http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.com.au/2013/01/himalayan-glaciers-recover.html
The small warming of the latter part of last century, caused by a series of strong solar cycles, has STOPPED. It looks like the solar cycles will be very weak over then next several decades, hopefully we won’t drop too far. Another LIA would cause huge amount of problems, especially with so many energy supply systems now on borderline collapse due to useless non-alternatives.
Sea Ice is above average
No atmospheric warming for 18 years
ARGO buoys showing basically no sea warming
Its looking more and more that we are passed the small molehill of warming, and heading for another valley.
“but the last ultra-rapid warming”
what a load of further BS !!!!
The small warming from 1970 – 1995 was no faster than from 1915 – 1945
It is neither large, nor ultra-rapid.
In the whole of the satellite data, the ONLY warming was about 0.3ºC from the 1998 EL Nino. Since 2001, the culmination of that event, the RSS satellite record has cooled slightly.
In the US, the only system that tries to get an even spatial distributing of surface temperatures, USCRN, (established in 2005), shows the USA COOLING at 0.5ºC/decade
USHCN data has actually COOLED at about 0.8ºC/ decade since 2005
Be very happy that we have warmed a bit since the LIA, because it looks like that’s all there is going to be.
Well, I suppose I’ll just have to hope that all you folk are actually sock puppets for one very stupid person, perhaps Sarah Palin’s long-lost clever-clogs cousin and nephew.
The alternative explanation, that there is actually a smattering of people like you in North America, is simply too depressing to contemplate.
Is that part of the IPCC report? I’m having trouble finding a reference Andrew Andrew Andrew, douche sac peu de poulet.
What Trougher Troup? Do you mean people that actually study the science.. and understand it.
Yes , that would be depressing for you, people who see straight through all the propaganda BS spewed out by the likes of you and your non-alternative energy scammers.
What is your job in the non-alternative energy scam.. development officer or something ?
Andrew , I believe you fit the earlier title : Global Warming is a Religion. If one is totally given to the faith that Greenhouse Gasses are Holy & Souly to blame for Hypothectical Warming you’re indoctrinated. Others explained the situation well with other posts…
“douche sac peu de poulet.”
Google translates that as “shower bag a little chicken”
Do you mean ‘rubber chicken’?
AHHH yes the old lie “… we’re losing the thick ice component, and that is a better indicator of warming temperatures.”
It was never a cause for alarm because:
#1. Sea Ice melts from the bottom due to ocean temperatures. Those temperatures are cyclical.
North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (NOAA)
http://www.climate4you.com/images/NOAA%20SST-NorthAtlantic%20GlobalMonthlyTempSince1979%20With37monthRunningAverage.gif
Global monthly heat content anomaly (GJ/m2) in the uppermost 700 m of the North Atlantic (60-0W, 30-65N) ocean since January 1979.
Notice the heat content peaked in 2007 and is now trending down.
http://www.climate4you.com/images/NODC%20NorthAtlanticOceanicHeatContent0-700mSince1979%20With37monthRunningAverage.gif
The is also an atmospheric cycle is called : The Arctic Oscillation (AO)
The loss of Arctic sea ice in 2007 was due to storm winds that blew the ice out of the Arctic through Fram Strait.
Andrew Andrew Andrew, douche sac peu de poulet.
“… we’re losing the thick ice component, and that is a better indicator of warming temperatures.”
Actually the temperatures in the Arctic in summer have been below normal all summer long for the last two years. The blue line near the top is 0C, 32F the freezing point of water. Only temperatures above that line can melt the ice.
Summer Temperatures North of 80 dgree North
2011
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2011.png
2012
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2012.png
2013
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2013.png
2014
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2014.png
“Which was an authentic occasion for genuine alarm”
Why? The low was caused by the break-up of summer ice by a large storm.
The Russians finally had some extended use of their northern sea ports.
Other than that , I can see no reason for alarm of any sort.
“which is beyond alarming”
Again? .. do you need a change of nappy !!!
As for glacier melt.. glaciers come and go.
Most started melting as we came out of the LIA and some are continuing to.
Glacier melt due to CO2 warming is a load of crap !!
Some glaciers come and go and have reasonable history to them showing this to be a fact
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/04/18/the-rhone-glacier-then-and-now/#comment-41751
Andrew, you want to know what is REALLY ALARMING?
1. The thought that the beneficial warming may actually have peaked, and the world is about to cool again.
2. The thought that there are many idiots out there that think CO2, the building block of all life on Earth, is somehow a pollutant.
3. The fact that there are complete morons out there that want to limit or to even reduce said atmospheric CO2 back to basic plant survival limits of below 300ppm.
But thankfully, China, India, and probably soon, some of the African states etc will keep up their supply of life-giving CO2 to the atmosphere for many, many years to come 🙂
Andrew you forgot the biggie.
Not only is the earth about to cool again but we are ~ 200 years over due for the drop into glaciation. Even if we manage to escape an actual glaciation it will only be by the skin of our teeth and the climate will make the Little Ice Age look down right balmy.
According to NOAA the June insolation at 60°N is now 47 Wm-2 less than it was during the Holocene peak insolation 11,000 years ago. The present June insolation is only 12 Wm-2 higher than the depths of the Wisconsin Ice Age and the earth will be bumping along at a low insolation for the next 65,000 years.
Something else to think about. The Holocene interglacial is now 11,717 years old.
The insolation was 522.50 Wm-2 12,000 years ago and the peak insolation was 523.16 Wm-2 11,000 years ago…..
Dr Brown is right ice ball is the more stable condition for earth.
I don’t think poor nappy-boy knows that while some glaciers are receding, they are often finding tree stumps and old human artefacts etc underneath them, indicating that the only thing unusual about the current position of these glaciers, is that they are more extended NOW than they have been in the not too distant past.
But when he only has the intelligence to the ingest brain-washing alarmista claptrap, its no wonder he doesn’t actually know much about anything, or have the ability to actually think for himself.
Gees, next he’ll be linking to SkS or somewhere equally as moronically non-scientific.
Since the Holocene Optimum glaciers have increased.
Temperature and precipitation history of the Arctic
Ice free Arctic Ocean, an Early Holocene analogue
A new approach for reconstructing glacier variability based on lake sediments recording input from more than one glacier January 2012
In otherwords in Norway glaciers have been re-established with the most growth in the last 600 years.
ANOTHER METHOD OF VALIDATION
Sea Level Changes Past Records and Future Expectations
If sea levels are falling glaciers are net gaining ice.
Gail, Facts aren’t going to help this twerp. He has been drinking the alarmista warm spew for way too long.. His addiction is total.
We are a very small amount above the COLDEST part of the whole Holocene interglacial, Somewhere part way up to the temperatures of the MWP, and way below the Holocene Optimum.
Cooling is the world’s biggest worry, NOT warming.
We managed to cross post Andy.
The way the climate is headed the Little Ice Age is going to seem like a warm spell. We are going to need all the CO2 we can spew out because the cooling oceans are going to be sucking CO2 out of the atmosphere in great big gulps. The Wisconsin Ice Age was already in starvation mode for trees.
Carbon starvation in glacial trees recovered from the La Brea tar pits, southern California
“…. Well over nine-tenths of the excess energy we receive from the sun due to the greenhouse effect goes into the ocean, and much of the rest goes into melting and subliming of glacier and other year-round ice. The long term trend data from those two heatsinks are beyond alarming….”
>>>>>>>>>>>
What the HELL?
I have never seen such a mishmash of confused ideas. Let’s see if we can straighten them out.
This is the sun’s energy spectrum:
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/4/4c/Solar_Spectrum.png
On the left is EUV, UV then Visible with Infrared on the right. Note the absorption bands for CO2 gas is off to the right.
This graph from the University of Colorado (SORCE) shows that it is the visible to EUV wavelengths that are absorbed by the ocean. (Do not confuse water vapor absorption with liquid water absorption)
http://lasp.colorado.edu/home/sorce/files/2011/09/fig01.gif
This graph looks only at the wavelengths on the right side, the visible to EUV wavelengths and the depth to which they penentrate the ocean. Note the wavelength radiated from CO2 is off the chart to the right and does not penetrate beyond the surface skin.
http://www.klimaatfraude.info/images/sverdrup.gif
So it is the high energy EUV to Vis wavelengths that affect the oceans.
The next question is does the amount of energy in those wavelengths from the sun varyover time?
The answer from NASA is YES!
Sources of Energy for the Earth’s Atmosphere
Solar Radiation………………………..Change
TSI (mostly Visible & Infrared)….0.1%
MUV (200-300 nm)……………………..1%
FUV (126-200 nm)……………………..30%
EUV (0-125 nm)………………………..100%
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sdo/science/Solar%20Irradiance.html
Gail, are you saying that just a small change in the frequency component of the suns UV output can radically change the penetration into sea water. 😉
Had a paper linked somewhere that showed exactly that. can’t find the actual paper any more, but here is one similar.
http://spgftp.ucsd.edu/People/Mati/2003_Ahmad_et_al_UV_radiation_SPIE.pdf
Figures 5 and b show the large difference in penetration between 310nm and 380nm UV light.
Interesting paper. Seems there are a lot of factors affecting the absorption of radiation/heat by the oceans.
……
My last graph comes from a Dutch Article. An English translation is HERE.
It includes ” a very nice diagram ( Schematic plot of open ocean surface thermal structures )” from NASA
http://klimaatfraude.info/images/evaporation.jpg
The graph is also in the link paper Donlon et al Toward Improved Validation of Satellite Sea Surface Skin Temperature Measurements for Climate Research
Now that paper gets into some real interesting stuff especially when you consider the oceans cover over 70% of the earth. You can get as much as a 4C temperature differential in less than the first meter of ocean. However that differential is dependent on time of day and wind. Not only that but the ‘skin’ temperature is not really related to the temperature of those first three feet. It is all over the place. Anywhere from 0.2 C to ~2.0C cooler than the water directly below. (evaporative cooling anyone?)
The paper is certainly worth a read since it puts a big ? next to the accuracy tof the satellite sea surface temperature measurements and any other SST measurements.
Gail, your first graph link has already gone dead. Fortunately, the WaybackMachine has it here:
http://web.archive.org/web/20150318031945/http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/4/4c/Solar_Spectrum.png
(hit refresh — probably F5 — if necessary, to view the graph… sometimes the WaybackMachine is so slow that it times out the first try)
In arguing with Andrew Troup, I think you’re all missing something very important:
“The “slow decline” you crow about, is from the lowest annual maximum winter extent *ever* recorded.”
He’s staring right at a chart which proves his assertion is wrong. But his betters have told him to believe their words, and ignore the numbers. This problem is pervasive, and simply can’t be argued with. He truly, unshakably, believes that he isn’t capable of reading the data for himself, and needs to rely on people better than him to tell him what a chart says.
I disagree with him. Not on his belief that he’s incapable of reading a chart. I don’t claim to know his capabilities. I disagree with his belief that there are people better than him. There aren’t. There’s no one better than Andrew Troup. There’s no one better than Gail Combs. There’s no one better than Tony, there’s no one better than me, or anyone else. That’s the most basic, most fundamental problem in modern society. I’m not a religious man. I’m temperamentally incapable of blind faith, in anything. But it’s clear to me that when the concept of a higher power is removed from society, the possibility for equality is also removed. In no objective sense are any two people equal. By human standards, some people will always be judged better than others. Thomas Jefferson chose his words very carefully when he wrote “All men are created equal.” Only through the lens of a higher power can all men be see as equals. Without that lens, people like Andrew Troup will keep believing that he has betters, and that whatever they say must be believed.
“…., people like Andrew Troup will keep believing that he has betters, and that whatever they say must be believed.”
It is a basic premise of collectivism:
From the book Willing Accomplices: How KGB Covert Influence Agents Created Political Correctness and Destroyed America by Kent Clizbe