Joaquin is dead. The graphic above shows all of the NOAA forecast tracks, and the “cone of uncertainty” on October 1 and October 7. It is clear that they claim certainty much greater than is realistic.
Disrupting the Borg is expensive and time consuming!
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Come on Tony, everyone knows we don’t keep score anymore, winning is oh so 20th Century.
That storm track has a high degree of certainty of being in the shape of Michael Mann’s hockey stick.
Joe Bastardi called this correctly last Saturday morning. Maybe they should fire a bunch of NOAA forecasters (so called) and just contract the weather out to him. Dream on.
Yes but, what about hurricane Sandy!
“In order to protect the environment, the precautionary approach
shall be widely applied by States according to their capabilities.
Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of
full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing
cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.” (UN
1993)
http://users.ictp.it/~eee/seminar/Bargiacchi%2015-07-03.pdf
sure, just make the people who make those “serious threats” financially liable for the preventive measures when their harms fail to manifest.
OT
Current climate propaganda announcement about “global coral bleaching” has Australian media reprinting crap about the Great Barrier Reef in imminent catastrophe.
Yet the water near Queensland, south Pacific and Indonesian archipelago is substantially cooler than normal according to NOAA (if they are telling the truth). Must be a climate conference about to start.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomnight.current.gif
The cold is bleaching global coral and not the heat.
The position of the polar vortex is similar to a year ago.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t10_nh_f00.png
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_z10_nh_f00.png
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_o3mr_05_nh_f00.png
North East again outdoor at arctic air.
“cone of uncertainty”….we call it the cone of death
Joaquin 1, Models 0.
Gail
Hurricane drinks Irish whiskey.
Y’all are viewing Joaquin from a safe distance. I left Savannah on October 3 to find that it was raining. I turned north onto I-95 and the rain got worse. Then I turned east on I-26 exactly on the line of the heaviest rainfall. Visibility was less than 300 feet so I travelled at 40 mph for hours.
The rain never stopped through Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, North Carolina, Virginia and Kentucky. Sometimes I drive 1,000 miles in a day but this is the first time that it rained for the entire journey.
Today I am in Pikeville, Kentucky where the Hatfields and McCoys fueded. I will return home to Florida via Carrboro (Paris of the Piedmont), North Carolina hoping for better luck with the weather.
One Saturday last March I drove back to Ohio from spring break in Daytona. It was sprinkling as I packed the car and left Daytona, and turned to steady rain before I crossed into GA on I-95. By the time I got to the I-95/26 split and turned NW toward Columbia SC, I was sick of hours of steady to heavy rain and slow moving traffic and was hoping it would slack off the farther NW I went away from the coast. However, it not only continued to rain, it got worse. I plowed through downpour bands so heavy between Charleston and Charlotte that vehicles were pulled over due to low visibility and white-knuckle drivers. The traffic that kept moving was down to 35 mph max and stop and go in spots in the middle of nowhere on I-26 much of the way into Charlotte. It finally let up a little in central NC, but the rain didn’t stop until after dark when it turned to snow squalls about halfway through WVa on I-77 and the temperature had dropped all the way into the 30s on the backside of the front.
Extensive storm fronts with heavy rain extending several hundred miles are not particularly unusual in the SE US particularly in the spring and fall.
Please see the circulation in the lower stratosphere.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=-330.00,85.56,396
Joaquin is currently losing its identity just off the west coast of Spain. Here’s the forecast surface pressure chart for 0000Z Monday 12 Oct:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColour&fcTime=1444564800
It will be a depression with a central pressure of 1002 hPa.
Just what Spain needs, another depression.
Maine, Spain… what difference does it make at this point anyway.
The UKMO and the Daily Mail were convinced it was going to hit Britain:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3259501/Brace-wet-windy-week-Britain-suffer-plunging-temperatures-two-weeks-rain-day-hurricane-hits-Friday.html
Scroll down to see an animated surface pressure forecast chart produced by the UKMO’s $100,000,000+ supercomputer showing it wasn’t worth 5¢.